Economic recovery slows down

The UK’s economic recovery has slowed down amid rising Covid rates and global supply issues.

In the three months to September, the economy expanded 1.3%, which is 2.1% lower than pre-pandemic rates.

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The was a 0.3% fall in manufacturing output, whilst construction was down 1.5%.

“Growth picked up in September and the UK economy is now only slightly below pre-pandemic levels,” said ONS chief economist, Grant Fitzner.

“This latest increase was led by the health sector, boosted by more visits to GP surgeries in England. Lawyers also had a busy month as house buyers rushed to complete purchases before the end of the stamp duty holiday. However, these were partially offset by falls in both the manufacture and sale of cars.

“Notably, business investment remained well down on pre-pandemic levels in the three months to September. Meanwhile the trade deficit widened as goods exports to non-EU countries fell and imports – particularly of fuel – from non-EU countries increased.”

Commenting on the latest GDP figures, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst, said: “The hope had been that once all covid restrictions were firmly in the rear-view mirror the economic engine would be revved and ready but while the economy did grow between July and September that growth slowed considerably.”

“Momentum was undoubtedly lost from the double drag on staff and supply shortages, remember the ‘pingdemic’ and the havoc that created.  One of those drags has been largely dealt with, though there are still sectors struggling to find the staff they need, however its important to note that supply chain constraints have already led to many sectors running down their inventories and stock levels are a far cry for where they would normally be in the run-up to Christmas. 

“Certainly, September’s story was a more optimistic one than that told by July and August. More people were flying, going to the theatre, seeing their doctor in person – all actions that boosted output from the service sector, as did a last-minute rush to complete all those home sales before the final end of the stamp duty holiday.  Construction also enjoyed a welcome bounce back with an increase in maintenance work on schools and offices.”

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