Shell shares were lower on Thursday after the oil major revealed profits fell in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Adjusted earnings were down 40% to $3.3bn, largely due to the timing of a tax charge. Apart from that, everything at Shell looks just fine.
Look past the impact of taxes, and each unit is ticking along nicely, with Shell successfully navigating the lower-fossil-fuel-price environment.
There will be concerns about lower refinig margins, but this won’t be a surprise to investors who are well aware of oil prices.
Importantly, underlying cash generation is strong, and continued share buybacks will be welcomed by investors.
“Shell’s latest quarter wasn’t spotless, with profits down 11%, but the miss says more about tax timing than underlying performance,” said Mark Crouch, market analyst at eToro.
“Strip that out and the oil giant remains firmly on the front foot. Management’s decision to press ahead with a $3.5 billion share buyback speaks louder than the profit dip and highlights the strength of underlying cash flows.”
“With Energy emerging as the best-performing sector of 2026, capital continues to rotate into the space even as oil and gas prices remain historically on the low side.
“Shell’s shares are trading close to all-time highs regardless, reflecting balance sheet strength, reliable cash generation and renewed upside potential in the share price. Progress on major projects in Australia and Brazil adds further visibility to medium-term growth.”