Nvidia has smashed Q4 earnings estimates and wowed markets with bumper Q1 2026 guidance that will go a long way to increasing confidence in the longevity of the AI trade.
There was a lot hinging on Nvidia’s earnings. A soft set of results could have unleashed a wave of volatility through equity markets as investors fretted that the AI boom was showing signs of wavering.
But that wasn’t the case. Nvidia revenue came in at $68bn, much higher than the $66bn expected by analysts. Even more encouragingly, the chipmaker issued guidance of $78bn for Q1 2026, well above estimates of $73bn.
What makes this all the more eye-catching is that the guidance doesn’t include any revenue from China.
Although relations between the US and China have improved, Nvidia is yet to earn any revenue by selling H200 chips to China. This could all change with the US granting a licence to ship to select customers.
Nvidia Data Centre revenue was 75% higher than a year ago and up 22% on Q3. Anyone concerned about a potential slowdown in AI should be reassured by these numbers.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Nvidia has delivered a monster quarter, and if 73% revenue growth wasn’t enough, guidance points to yet another acceleration in the coming quarter to 77% at the midpoint.
“Expectations for revenues in 2026 and 2027 are clearly too low, and we expect to see a slew of analyst upgrades in the coming weeks on the back of these numbers. The bar was high heading into results, but Nvidia continues to demonstrate why it’s the top dog.
“Questions will still linger over whether the current AI spending wave can sustain growth beyond the next few years, and whether Nvidia will remain as dominant as AI shifts from training models to running everyday tasks. That uncertainty likely helps explain why the shares trade at only a modest premium to the wider market on a forward price‑to‑earnings basis, despite rocket ship financials.”