Greggs shares jumped on Wednesday as the sausage roll maker reassured investors they were on track to meet full-year guidance despite the rate of third-quarter growth slowing.
The firm’s total sales increased by 6.1% for the 13 weeks to September 27, 2025, and by 6.7% year-to-date. This compares to 7% growth in the group’s first half period.
Gregg’s slowing growth was highlighted in a profit warning in July, which led to a sharp sell-off in Greggs’ shares. Investors are breathing a sigh of relief that the company hasn’t had to lower guidance again, and shares jumped 5% on Wednesday.
“Even sausage rolls are sweating as Greggs feels the heat. Hot weather and a softer consumer backdrop meant third-quarter growth slowed, raising question marks around expectations for the full year,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown
“Management isn’t waving the white flag just yet, with the full-year outlook unchanged. But this quarter was about weathering the bumps rather than breaking records – a far cry from the Greggs of 2024.
“Longer term, the ingredients for growth are still in the mix. Expanding into supermarkets and online through Bake at Home, plus major supply chain upgrades, should set the stage for the next leg from 2026. Cost pressures are easing slightly, which helps, but today’s update is a reminder that even a category leader isn’t immune to short-term headwinds. For investors, the steady ship has been rocked this year, and the outlook has shifted to a slow rise rather than a rapid bake – but there is still an attractive recipe lurking beneath the surface.”
Although shares are much cheaper than they have been in recent years, some analysts offer the view that Greggs’ issues are the syptom of a wider shift in consumer behaviour that could persist in the near term.
“Greggs has recently issued a profit warning that reflects more than just the effects of unseasonably warm weather,” explained Alex Smith, VP, Global Lead at Third Bridge.
“Our experts say the bigger concern is the drop in footfall across high street locations, a structural shift that is weighing heavily on traditional outlets which once depended on commuter traffic and office workers.
“Our experts estimate the broader quick service restaurant and full-service dining sector will face a demand contraction of around 2 to 3 percent in the second half of 2025.”