GSK lifts guidance after strong Q3

GSK reported third-quarter sales of £8.5 billion, up 8% at constant exchange rates, driven by strong performance across its Specialty Medicines, Vaccines and General Medicines divisions.

GSK shares rose over 3% on Wednesday, and investors will hope the strong sales momentum gives GSK a fighting chance of breaking out of its decade-long trading range that has capped the stock around 1,800p.

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The pharmaceutical giant’s Specialty Medicines unit led growth with sales of £3.4 billion, up 16%. HIV treatments generated £1.9 billion in revenue, rising 12%, whilst Oncology sales surged 39% to £0.5 billion.

Vaccine sales reached £2.7 billion, with shingles vaccine Shingrix climbing 13% to £0.8 billion and respiratory vaccine Arexvy jumping 36% to £0.3 billion. General Medicines contributed £2.5 billion, with respiratory treatment Trelegy posting particularly strong growth of 25% to £0.7 billion.

Higher sales across most divisions helped core operating profit increase 11% to £3.0 billion, whilst core earnings per share rose 14% to 55.0 pence.

For the year to date, GSK generated £6.3 billion in operating cash flow and £1.2 billion in free cash flow during the quarter.

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Such was the strength of sales in Q3 that GSK upgraded its full-year guidance, now expecting 2025 turnover growth of 6% to 7%, up from its previous guidance of 3% to 5%. Core operating profit growth is forecast at 9% to 11%, whilst core earnings per share growth is projected at 10% to 12%—both metrics raised from the prior 6% to 8% range.

“GSK has breezed past third quarter forecasts with beats at both the top and bottom line,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Britain’s second largest pharmaceutical company’s vital signs are in excellent shape, with growth seen in all segments, as Dame Emma Walmsley passes the CEO baton to Luke Miels. The emerging cancer franchise saw the strongest growth at 39%. With new approvals for blood cancer treatment Blenrep and a recent deal adding a prostate cancer candidate to the research pipeline, the prognosis is promising. 

“Emma Walmsley’s left a parting gift for investors with the second upgrade of the year, with sales and profit guidance both moving into a new range. Full-year revenue is now expected to grow 6-7% with the underlying profit growth range moving from 6-8% to 9-11%. This is helped not just by the revenue uplift, but also a better product mix and improved efficiencies. The market remains to be convinced that GSK can meet its £40 billion sales target by 2031. The company’s certainly moving in the right direction but it’s now down to the new man at the helm to keep that momentum going.”

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