Shell’s fourth-quarter earnings teaser has left investors disappointed as shares fall on the news tougher conditions will continue for the oil major.

Shell shares were down 1.5% in early trading after the company said gas production would be lower due to maintenance in Qatar, leading to possible lower earnings for the division.

After recording gas production of 941 kboe/d in Q3, Shell now expects production to fall into the range of 880 – 920 kboe/d in Q4. This will come as a blow to investors, given integrated gas was Shell’s biggest contributor to adjusted earnings in Q3.

“Shell has revised its outlook for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production in the fourth quarter, as oil and gas prices remain under pressure following a challenging year for fossil fuels. The oil giant’s chemicals and oil products division is also expected to report a decline in Q4, signalling a broader slump in its performance as it prepares to release earnings in the coming weeks,” said Mark Crouch, market analyst at investment platform eToro.

Shell, like all oil majors, has experienced difficult trading conditions due to lower energy prices that are showing little sign of recovery in the near term.

Those positioning for Shell’s green energy transition will also be perturbed the company is slowing commitments to offshore wind. Shell has a substantial clean energy business, yet it still pales into insignificant to the fossil fuel units.

“Additionally, Shell has announced that it is stepping back from new offshore wind investments,” Crouch said.

“This move raises questions about the long-term viability of windfarms as a practical investment for the company’s shareholders, especially under the leadership of CEO Wael Sawan. Sawan’s relentless focus on pursuing projects that generate value for investors seems to prioritise short-term returns over longer-term renewable energy commitments.”

The FTSE 100 slipped on Tuesday as Asian-focused banks and housebuilders weighed on the index following soft UK house price data and concerns about US-China trade relations.

“Asia-focused financials were lower after the Hang Seng index dropped sharply. The sell-off was linked to news the US is putting several Chinese firms in its crosshairs including Tencent,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

There was also a sense of caution ahead of key economic data that has the potential to set the tone for central bank action in early 2025.

The move lower in London came despite a strong session for US indices that look set to leave the FTSE 100 in the dust in terms of performance again in 2025. Chipmaker shares, including Nvidia Micron Technology and Super Micro, led the market higher on the news Microsoft planned to spend big on AI in 2025.

“After a sluggish December, US stocks have kicked off the year in style, with tech and semiconductors stealing the spotlight, buoyed by Nvidia buzz, chatter about Microsoft’s $80bn capex plans, and tariff optimism despite mixed signals from Trump,’ said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Nvidia climbed higher on the assumption that a significant portion of Microsoft’s increased infrastructure spending will flow its way, while CEO Jensen Huang delivered a keynote speech at the Consumer Electronics Show, unveiling new gaming cards, autonomous vehicle partnerships, and more. AMD joined the rally with a new chip deal with Dell, while broader markets wrestled with déjà vu over China trade relations and investors remained laser-focused on AI capex and deregulation in the banking sector.”

in the UK, Next was firmly higher after increasing guidance for the year on the back of a very positive festive trading period update.

“As if a billion-pound profit for the year wasn’t enough, Next has gone and nudged the dial again, increasing full year profit outlook for the fourth time in the space of half a year,” said Adam Vettese, market analyst at investment platform eToro.

‘Sales were up 6% for the period leading up to and just after Christmas, significantly higher than the projected 3.5% increase, which has been the same story throughout the year much to the delight of investors.”

“Next is often used as a barometer of the UK retail sector and so far so good with many others due to report this week.”

JD Sports was again among the risers as it rallied in sympathy with Next’s encouraging results. JD Sports shares were ravaged by a series of profit warnings towards the end of last year, which set the stock up for a strong start to 2025. 

Banks were a significant drag on London’s markets, with HSBC, NatWest, and Standard Chartered down around 1%-2% due to China concerns.

Taylor Wimpey was the top faller after Halifax said UK house prices fell for the first time since March.

Next shares rose on Tuesday after reporting stronger-than-expected Christmas trading, with full-price sales rising 6.0% in the nine weeks to December 28th, prompting the bellwether retailer to raise its profit guidance for the year.

The British retail giant revealed that its performance was particularly driven by robust online growth, especially from its international operations. Online sales overseas surged by 31.4% during the festive period, while the company’s UK online business, comprising both Next’s own brand and third-party Label brands, grew by 6.1%.

“Next has enjoyed a strong Christmas with its online business seeing an acceleration in sales growth in the fourth quarter, both in the UK and overseas. The year ahead is forecast to be more challenging, but Next still expects to grow sales and profit. It is a classic example of a strong business getting stronger,” said Charlie Huggins, fund manager at Wealth Club.

“Next has pulled another rabbit out of the hat this Christmas, beating its sales forecasts once again. More important for investors is the guidance for the coming year.”

However, the picture was less rosy for Next’s physical stores, where sales declined by 2.1% during the Christmas trading period. This contrast highlights the continuing shift in consumer shopping habits towards digital channels, a trend that has been consistent throughout the year.

The strong overall performance has led Next to increase its profit forecast for the year ending January 2025. The retailer now expects full-year profit before tax to reach £1,010 million, up £5 million from its previous guidance. This would represent a 10.0% increase compared to the previous year.

Next also noted that its end-of-season sale stock was up 13% compared to last year, though the company stated this represents a return to more normal levels after particularly low surplus stock in the previous year. The retailer confirmed that clearance rates are meeting expectations.

Looking ahead to the next financial year, Next has adopted a more cautious stance, forecasting sales growth of 3.5%. The company cited concerns about the impact of employer tax increases on the broader economy, particularly their potential effects on prices and employment levels.

“Calendar year 2025 is likely to be a bloodbath for the UK retail sector,” Huggins said.

“The Autumn Budget means retailers will face a significant increase in employee costs and many will not be able to offset this. Next stands apart for its ability to do so, with its high margins, strong overseas growth and efficiency initiatives all helping it to preserve profitability.”