Severn Trent shares rise with financial performance ‘on track’

Severn Trent shares hit the highest levels since 2023 after releasing a trading update for the period to 10 July 2024, highlighting robust financial performance and strategic investments.

The company reports that its financial performance for the year remains on track, and it expects to deliver in line with guidance.

Severn Trent share price were 2.77% higher at the time of writing.

A key highlight is the anticipated net Outcome Delivery Incentive (ODI) reward of over £100 million pre-customer-sharing in 17/18 prices for the current year. This performance is set to bring the total net ODI reward for the Asset Management Period 7 (AMP7) to approximately £420 million in nominal prices, reflecting consistent performance for customers.

In terms of capital investment, Severn Trent has already deployed over £300 million in the first quarter of the year. The company maintains its guidance of £1.3 billion to £1.5 billion for the full year, positioning itself strongly for a successful capital investment programme through AMP8.

The company’s Green Power business is set to expand significantly. Following a deal with international solar company Elgin Energy, Severn Trent plans to invest around £100 million in constructing three large-scale solar farms. This investment is expected to increase the company’s energy generation by approximately 150GWh per year, demonstrating a commitment to sustainable practices and potentially reducing operational costs in the long term.

Severn Trent has reported another strong start to the year and remains on track to meet guidance forecasts. However, there are some potential problems for the company bubbling beneath the surface,” said Mark Crouch, analyst at investment platform eToro.

“A distinct lack of investment in the country’s water infrastructure has almost become a throwaway line in recent years, with water companies accused of prioritising profits over safety and quality while running something of a monopoly, given the lack of competition. 

“Severn Trent was responsible for thousands of sewage spills in 2023, with spills increasing more than 30%. To the company’s credit, they have invested significantly into improving their network, however their target of halving spills by 2030 looks at this stage ambitious at best. 

“Severn Trent had proposed a 50% rise in bills over the next five years, however the UK’s water regulator Ofwat has restricted that number to 21%. Calls for the new Labour government to nationalise the water companies are getting louder. And while that prospect seems unlikely, it will hopefully act as a potent incentive for firms to clean up their act.”

Premier Foods – Q1 Trading Update At Next Thursday’s AGM – Foods And Shares For All Occasions

On Thursday of next week, 18th July, Premier Foods (LON:PFD) will be holding its AGM at its St Albans premises in the Centrium Business Park. 

Ahead of the 11am meeting the group will be issuing its Q1 Trading Update, which should be positive in its outlook for the balance of the current year to end March 2025. 

The Business 

Premier Foods declares itself as proud to be British, while employing over 4,000 people operating from 13 manufacturing and office sites across the UK.  

It makes the majority of the food it produces in the UK.  

Wherever it can, it sources sustainably from British suppliers and farmers, such as orchards and dairy farms, to help it create its well-loved products.  

The group has worked with 40% of its suppliers for 10 years or more. 

It supplies a very wide range of customers including retailers, wholesalers, convenience stores and foodservice customers with its iconic products which feature in millions of homes.  

It operates primarily in the ambient food sector, which is one of the largest sectors within the total UK grocery market.  

The group has significant market share in its key grocery categories of: Flavourings & Seasonings (44%); Quick Meals, Snacks & Soups (38%); Ambient Desserts (41%) and Cooking Sauces & Accompaniments (15%).  

Within Sweet Treats it operates in the Ambient Cakes category (18%). 

Additionally, it also has a non-branded food business which manufactures products such as cakes and desserts on behalf of many UK food retailers. 

Its brands include: Batchelors, Loyd Grossman, Homepride, Paxo, Bisto, Oxo, Mr Kipling, Sharwoods, Nissin, Saxa, Angel Delight, FUEL10K, Plantastic, Atora, Marvel, McDougalls, Ambrosia, Birds, Be-Ro, Brown & Polson, Cadbury Cakes, Spice Tailor, and Smash. 

The group claims that 90% of UK households buy one or more of its products each year. 

The company has a growing international business, with many of its brands enjoyed by consumers worldwide. 

Results To End March 2024 

Sales were up 15.1% to £1,122.6m, while its adjusted pre-tax profits were also 15.1% better at £157.9m, but with earnings 6.4% better at 13.7p, while the dividend was 20% better at 1.73p a share. 

CEO Alex Whitehouse stated that: 

“This has been another really strong year for the business with considerable progress across all our key financial metrics and five-pillar growth strategy. In the UK, branded revenue increased by 13.6%, accompanied by 29 basis points of market share gain, as we continued to outperform the market. 

We have a strong set of plans for this year, across each of our strategic pillars and with our return to volume growth, we are on track to deliver on full year expectations.” 

The Equity 

There are 868.79m shares in issue. 

The larger holders include Nissin Foods (24.27%), Van Lanschot Kempen Investment Management (5.52%), Brandes Investment Partners (4.86%), M&G Investment Management (4.02%), JP Morgan Asset Management (3.64%), Dimensional Fund Advisors (3.58%), Southeastern Asset Management (3.55%), The Vanguard Group (3.23%), Paulson & Co (2.94%), and Fidelity Management & Research (2.77%). 

Analyst Views 

Six analysts who follow the group rate the shares as a Strong Buy, with 198p a share as the average price objective. 

Sector specialists Clive Black and Darren Shirley at Shore Capital Markets have estimates out for the current year to end March 2025 for revenues of £1,169.0m, adjusted pre-tax profits of £161.3m, worth 13.7pper share in earnings and paying a 2.1p per share dividend. 

For the next year they see £1,204.0m sales, £169.6m profits, 14.4p earnings and a 2.5p per share dividend. 

My View 

I really like this group – just look at your own kitchen shelves and you will surely see some of its products. 

Such market penetration in its various sectors deserves a premium rating, but as yet it has not been recognised. 

The shares, now 166p, have been up to 180.20p this year, the highest level for at least five years.  

They are underrated and could so easily break up over the 200p level. 

Tekcapital’s Guident receives grant from Space Florida

Tekcapital’s Guident has been awarded a grant from the Space Florida-Israel Innovation Partnership program. The project aims to incorporate low-latency satellite connectivity into Guident’s autonomous vehicle remote monitoring service, helping improving self-driving vehicle safety and reliability.

Set to begin in July 2024, the initiative will utilise non-geostationary satellite technology to create a communication system between autonomous vehicles and remote control centres. The technology is aimed at addressing limitations in terrestrial network coverage, allowing for continuous operation of self-driving vehicles in all weather types and geographical areas.

Tekcapital shares rose after the news was released on Thursday.

Guident is collaborating with Israeli satellite communications company NOVELSAT on this project. NOVELSAT specialises in next-generation content connectivity solutions and will contribute its broadcast and broadband technologies to the project. The partnership aims to enhance network capabilities for autonomous transportation.

The project focuses on developing a system architecture that combines artificial intelligence with satellite communications intended to improve the safety, efficiency, and reliability of autonomous vehicles, which could influence the future of transportation.

As the autonomous vehicle industry develops, Guident’s Space Florida-supported project is aimed at addressing challenges in vehicle communication and control, promoting the adoption of self-driving vehicles through road safety and efficiency.

“At the heart of this project is our commitment to advancing teleoperation safety through rigorous research and testing. We aim to ensure the highest safety and performance standards for autonomous vehicles equipped with this pioneering communication system,” said Dr. Dennis Morgen, Guident’s Vice President for Product and Project Management commented.

“This grant will propel us forward in developing an effective remote monitor and control solution with Space Florida’s invaluable support and strategic expertise.

“This project marks a significant milestone in Guident’s dedication to innovation in autonomous vehicles and monitoring solutions. With a talented team of researchers, engineers, and industry experts, we believe Guident is poised to impact the future of AV transportation.”

FCA shakes up listing rules but ‘more work to be done’

The industry has broadly welcomed new FCA rules to attract exciting companies to London’s exchanges, but there is a general consensus that the changes should be the beginning of a comprehensive package of measures to improve London’s standing on the global stage. 

The FCA have published new rules for listings that aligns the UK with international markets in an effort to bolster London’s ailing equity markets.

The policy statement released today, beginning with ‘The UK’s capital markets are the engine room of our economy’, outlines an array of changes to listings rules, including amendments to shareholder voting requirements and abolishment of the ‘premium’ and ‘standard’ lists, which are to be replaced by a single category.  

UK authorities have been under pressure to act to support London’s capital markets, and today’s FCA policy statement is a direct result of initial work started by the last government.

“A thriving capital market is vital in delivering investment to growing companies plus returns and choice to investors. That’s why we are acting to make it more straightforward for those seeking to list in the UK, while retaining vital protections so investors can help steer the businesses they co-own,” said Sarah Pritchard, Executive Director, Markets and International, at the FCA.

“Regulation is only part of the answer in helping the UK achieve sustainable growth. Other factors also play a significant role in influencing where a company decides to list. We’re committed to continually working together with all those who have a part to play in supporting a thriving UK capital market and thank everyone who has contributed to this work so far.”

With the FCA doing their part to help promote the UK’s capital markets with these early and targeted rule changes, the industry will also have to do theirs to capture the interest of global companies seeking a listing.

“The FCA has simplified the rules for companies looking to list in the UK,” explained Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown. “This comes after the UK has been shunned by companies, both new and existing, due to an overcomplicated system and valuations that lag some of the overseas markets on offer. Simplified listing rules are a first step, but there’s still more work to be done if the UK wants to regain a reputation for nurturing exciting new businesses.

London was once seen as a global power house for international companies seeking to raise capital. However, the number of companies listed in London has plummeted and the IPOs have slowed to a snail’s pace. 

The reaction to today’s rules changes has been positive and seen as a step in the right direction, yet some signal the new Labour government has its work cut out to take London back to its former glory.

“Any policy change that can incentivise or encourage more firms to list in the UK should be welcomed with open arms,” said Dan Moczulski, Managing Director UK, eToro.

“There is a lot of talk about growth from our new government right now. To deliver it, we need a thriving capital market. This requires an environment where companies see the UK as an attractive place to list, and where investors want to invest. 

“The virtuous cycle is clear: more companies listing in the UK attracts more investors, both domestic and global, boosts share prices, and generates more wealth, which in turn encourages even more companies to list. This is arguably the holy grail for our economy in terms of growth. While Jeremy Hunt set his sights on this goal, it’s now up to Rachel Reeves to make it a reality. Hopefully these new rules can help generate momentum for further policy initiatives, laying the foundation for a more dynamic and prosperous UK capital market.”

Personal Group focuses on strengths

Employee benefits and insurance provider Personal Group Holdings (LON: PGH) is selling a business that it acquired ten years ago and has been a disappointing performer over the past few years. This will allow the business to focus on the things it is good at.
One year ago, Paula Constant took on the chief executive role at AIM-quoted Personal Group. She has reviewed strategy, and this identified that the insurance and benefits platform and its offers are a strong business. Management can concentrate on expanding these operations, where there is plenty of scope for growth.
The Perkbox Vivup Gro...

FTSE 100 surges higher after strong session in US and Asia, Barratts falls

The FTSE 100 was firmly higher on Wednesday as the index took its lead for the Asian and US sessions which closed at, or very near, record highs.

London’s flagship index was 0.6% higher at the time of writing on Wednesday.

“The FTSE 100 regained some of the ground lost yesterday as a combination of airlines and precious metals miners helped give the market a lift,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“This followed gains in Asia and on Wall Street overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 attaining a new record level.

“Testimony from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell before the US Senate saw him flag a return to normality in the labour market. While he made no commitment on rate cuts, jobs data is one of the most important influences on the Fed’s decision making because tight labour market conditions and rapidly rising wages can lead to inflation becoming entrenched”

The Fed chair’s testimony was shrugged off by markets which continue to fixate on AI-related technology shares propping up US indices such as the S&P 500.

“US indices are still hanging close to record highs, with enthusiasm over AI possibilities and hopes for a soft landing for the economy still buoying sentiment,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Eyes will now be drawn to tomorrow’s Consumer Price Inflation report for indications about the future direction of travel. Another shift lower in headline inflation is expected, which should help maintain the largely optimistic outlook. A reading of 3.1% year-on-year is expected in June, down from 3.3% in May.”

The FTSE 100’s gains were broad on Wednesday, with all but 13 constituents trading in positive territory at the time of writing.

Airlines were among the top gainers with IAG soaring 3.4% and Easyjet adding 2.7%. IAG was the beneficiary of a broker upgrade, and Easyjet embarked on the trip higher in sympathy.

One of the few fallers was Barratt Developments after the housebuilder said it expected completions to fall again next year after a pretty dismal year’s trading in 2024.

“Barratt’s full-year trading update showed that it’s hard to build momentum when the entire housing market has been on unstable ground. The group completed around 14,000 new homes this year, which was towards the top end of group guidance, but still marks a big drop off from the prior year,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Buyers are very sensitive to mortgage availability and affordability pressures. Although there have been improvements on this front over the second half of the year, further easing of mortgage rates will be necessary for activity to pick up significantly.”

Barratt Developments shares were down 1.3% at the time of writing.

European Equity Outlook, Reckitt Benckiser, and UK Housebuilders with Morningstar’s Michael Field

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome Michael Field, European Equity Strategist at Morningstar, back to the podcast to jump headfirst into European equities and the key consideration for investors.

Download Morningstar’s European Equity Outlook Q3 2024

Michael has joined the UK Investor Magazine on a number of occasions over the past year and provided a fascinating insight into the macroeconomic factors driving European stocks and highlighted individual names offering value. This episode was no different.

We start with looking at the key risks and rewards for European equities and explore the political environment.

The discussion progresses to the sector Morningstar see value in before touching on Reckitt Benckiser.

Morningstar previously highlighted Persimmon as a company that offered deep value. After a near 50% rally, we look at what the the Labour government means for the UK housebuilding sector.

iomart Group – Getting Bigger, Better And Bolder With A Very Strong ARR, Shares Looking Cheap 

“Our vision is to be the UK’s leading secure cloud services provider to the SME market.  

We want to provide a compelling proposition to customers as cloud optimisation experts and a managed service provider that delivers the right cloud for the right workloads, which is secure by design.” 

That is a very clear strategic aim, certainly enough to get investors to follow this group as it pushes its revenues and profits upwards over the next few years. 

Its shares are bottoming out currently and could well make an attractive medium-term purchase. 

Its recent results to end March, announced a month ago, show a very attractive 91% ARR, a pleasing figure for any CFO. 

The Business 

The iomart Group (LON: IOM) is a cloud computing and IT managed services business providing hybrid cloud infrastructure, data management, protection and cyber security services, and digital workplace capability.  

The company considers that its mission is simple: to make its customers unstoppable by enabling them to connect, secure and scale anywhere, anytime.  

Its 470-strong team can design and deploy the right cloud solution for its customers from the various data centres that it operates across the UK to connected sites around the world. 

Trading Outlook 

The first two months of the new financial year have seen trading in line with Board expectations, consistent with the company’s high recurring revenue business model which gives good visibility.  

The industry-wide change to VMware licensing introduced by Broadcom has resulted in increased costs ahead of associated revenue enhancing opportunities and this, combined with the timing of revenue recognition from the recently secured customer contracts and inflation driven cost and salary increases, means growth is likely to be more second half weighted in FY25.  

The underlying drivers for cloud computing, increasing complexity of the technical landscape and customers looking for a trusted and experienced service partner gives the Board confidence in the outlook for the long-term prospects for the Group. 

The Equity 

There are some 112.49m shares in issue. 

Major shareholders include Angus MacSween, Dir (15.45%), Bank Julius Bar (15.21%), Gresham House Management (12.28%), Octopus Investments (10.81%), Lombard Odier Asset Management (9.05%), Liontrust Asset Management (9.05%), Rathbones Investment Management (5.60%), Canaccord Genuity Wealth (3.27%), Slater Investments (2.16%) and Banque Lombard Odier (1.98%). 

Analyst Views 

At Cavendish Capital Markets its analysts Andrew Darley and Kimberley Carstens have a Price Objective of 240p on the group’s shares. 

After allowing for VMware licence changes, their estimates for the current year to end March 2025 are for £132.0m (£127.0m) revenues, with adjusted pre-tax profits of £14.7m (£15.0m), with unchanged earnings of 9.8p and an unchanged 4.9p dividend per share. 

For the year to end March 2026 they see £135.0m sales, £16.1m profits,10.6p earnings and a 5.3p dividend. 

Some four analysts follow the company, the average price aim of their consensus views stands at around 200p a share. 

My View 

This £140m capitalised group’s shares, which were 380p four years ago, collapsed to a low of 113p two years later. 

This time last year they were on a recovery climb to 193.60p but have subsequently eased back to around the current 125p level, at which point they have certain attractions for risk-tolerant investors taking a one-year view.

AIM movers: Impax Asset Management AUM declines and Union Jack Oil drilling another US well

1

Biotech Sareum (LON: SAR) co-founder and chief executive Tim Mitchell is transitioning to the part-time role of chief operating officer. Dr Stephen Parker becomes executive chairman. The share price improved 7.94% to 34p.

Capital Metals (LON: CMET) has received consents so that drilling can commence at the Eastern Minerals project in Sri Lanka. The focus will be resource extension and confirming the resource. The minimum target is to double the existing resource of 17.2Mt at 17.6% total heavy minerals. The share price is 7.35% ahead at 1.825p.

Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO) has spudded the Andrews 2-17 well in Oklahoma, where it has a 45% interest. The Andrews 1-17 well is already in production. The Wressle project in the UK has generated $1m of revenues since the end of April. The share price is 6.45% higher at 16.5p.

CleanTech Lithium (LON: CTL) expects to hear from the Chilean government about its expression of interest relating to the Laguna Verde and Viento Andino projects and three other joint ventures by the end of August. The share price rose 5.08% to 15.5p.

Pit optimisations at the Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe, recently acquired by Ariana Resources (LON: AAU), have increased measured and indicated resources by 16%. Dokwe could produce 75,000-100,000 ounces of gold/year for more than a decade. A revised pre-feasibility study should be published in a few months. The previous study suggested a post-tax NPV10 of $160m. The share price improved 4.65% to 2.25p.

Quadrise (LON: QED) says that trials of its lower emissions MSAR and bioMSAR fuels for marine vessel the MSC Leandra have not started yet. In February, Quadrise announced a collaboration agreement with Cargill and MAC2 Solutions, but the full agreement has not been signed. Cargill will supply feedstocks and MAC2 provide jetty space. Cargill has a fleet of more than 500 vessels. The share price recovered 3.63% to 2.0725p.

FALLERS

UK Oil & Gas (LON: UKOG) has raised £500,000 at 0.015p/share. This will repay the convertible funding facility with RiverFort Global Opportunities and YA II PN. The remaining cash will fund hydrogen storage projects. the share price slumped 21.4% to 0.0165p.

Impax Asset Management (LON: IPX) reported a 7% fall in asset under management to £36.9bn in the quarter to June 2024. That is a 1.3% decline over nine months. There was a net outflow of £1.89bn in the quarter and the rest of the decline was negative performance. It appears that some investors are still reducing exposure to equities. The 2023-24 earnings forecast has been cut by 3% to 29.7p/share. Impax Asset Management is acquiring the European fixed income operations of SKY Harbor Capital Management, which covers assets under management of $2bn. The acquisition of Copenhagen-based Absalon Capital Management should be completed soon. The share price declined 9.47% to 377.5p.

Lithium explorer Atlantic Lithium (LON: ALL) says an investigation has commenced following the death of a worker at the Ewoyaa project in Ghana. Activities have been suspended. The share price dipped 5.45% to 18.91p.

Petro Matad has multi-bagger potential in the run-up to production in Mongolia

Those with good memories will remember the fanfare surrounding Petro Matad when it first discovered oil in Mongolia in 2010. Petro Matad made a series of discoveries that made it one of the most exciting London-listed exploration companies of the time.

Recent developments for the company are reigniting this excitement, and rightly so. Brokers’ price targets suggest Petro Matad shares could appreciate multiples of the current price, and there is now a solid foundation for them to do so.

UK Investor Magazine published ‘Four UK Small Cap Growth Shares to Watch Summer 2024’ just before the announcement of a material development for Petro Matad in late June. Should timings have been different, this selection would likely be Five stocks and include Petro Matad.

The company has been substantially derisked as an investment for new investors after raising $8.9m by way of a placing in late June. The funds will be used almost exclusively to take Petro Matad’s Heron project through to production in 2024/25, a milestone that will unlock substantial shareholder value.

However, it has not been plane sailing for Petro Matad, and many investors may have only recently considered the stock after a heavily discounted placing.

In 2010-2012, the Mongolian natural resources sector was in the limelight. Rio Tinto was developing the world’s largest copper deposit at the Olu Tolgoi copper mine, capturing the attention of global investors and Mongolia was opening up to overseas investors.

Petro Matad rode this wave for a short period as evaluation of its assets revealed the extent of the resources in place at its Block XX field. The excitement around the quality of oil in place was replaced by frustrations at the Mongolian bureaucracy, and Petro Matad shares suffered dearly. Early investors were left licking their wounds.

Fast forward past numerous hurdles and bumps in the road, a ruling by the Mongolian government to certify Block XX and the Heron discovery as special purpose land in 2023 represented a step change in the authorities approach. A land usage agreement signed in early 2024 has paved the way for production to begin. 

Production from Petro Matad’s assets has been a long time coming. The first production-sharing agreement with the Mongolian government was signed nearly 20 years ago, in 2005. The Petro Matad saga should serve as a lesson to natural resource investors about just how long it takes for the production of promising assets to begin. 

With approvals and licensing agreements seemingly mostly complete, Petro Matad now has a clear path to production and the opportunity for share price appreciation.

Early production at the Heron project is expected to help support exploration, evaluation and eventual production across the rest of the Heron prospect, and the Gobi Bear prospect. The company has a 5-year plan to reach production of 9,000 barrels of oil per day.

In addition to oil production, Petro Matad is harnessing Mongolia’s landscape for renewable energy generation through a JV with SunSteppe, which already has a battery storage system and a green hydrogen project powered by wind power underway. Petro Matad’s transition to an oil producer and clean energy producer will provide diversification and potential revenue streams long into the future.

Broker targets

Zeus has a price target based on a Core NAV of 4.3p, rising to 28.7p for Total Unrisked NAV. The greater of these two price targets represents substantial upside to the current share price of 2.8p.

The Zeus price target, as with most broker price targets for AIM companies, should be taken with two shovels of salt. That said, it does provide some scale of where Petro Matad shares could go in the medium term.

For context, much of the Total Unrisked NAV valuation (17.9p of 28.7p) is derived from further exploration of the Saiga and Gobi Bear projects in Block XX. Zeus’s price target does not include the renewable JV.

Market conditions

The market conditions for early-stage natural resources companies favour Petro Matad. There has been a notable uptick in interest in the sector in recent months, and several companies have yielded investors very respectable returns, especially in speculative Helium-related plays. One would expect some of this cash to find its way into Petro Matad as the fast money spins into the next opportunity.

But this isn’t just a short-term play. The company says it expects the recent fundraise to take it through to production at Heron. This means cash flows and, very likely, further shareholder value creation through the evaluation of prospects in Block XX.

We must note, Petro Matad doesn’t come without potential operational setbacks that could pose a risk to the share price.