Pound jumps as UK retail sales rise more than expected

The pound rose against the dollar and the euro on Friday after September’s UK retail sales came in much better than expected.

UK retail sales were expected to fall by 0.3% in September. However, the resilience of the UK consumer has made the economists that make these predictions look a little silly with the actual figure jumping 0.3% month on month.

The upbeat insight into the UK economy helped lift the pound against the dollar and the euro. Indeed, the pound was trading at the highest levels against the euro since 2022 shortly after the data was released.

The reading was at odds with other recent economic data points that have suggested mild weakness in the UK economy. However, retail sales is a major leading indicator of the UK economy so traders were more than happy to buy into the pound and UK-centric stocks in early trade on Friday with the outlook for the UK looking that much better.

“There is little sign in these figures of consumers cutting back ahead of the Autumn Budget. Strong sales of computers, which are traditionally seen as a more discretionary purchase, suggest the UK consumer is in relatively fine fettle. And although food sales were rather weak, weather appears likely to have played a part,” said Charlie Huggins, Manager of the Quality Shares Portfolio at Wealth Club.

“With UK inflation now below the Bank’s 2% target, paving the way for further interest rate cuts, there is a feeling of cautious optimism in the air. Add it all up and it suggests retailers can look forward to the festive period with a degree of confidence.”

FTSE 100 boosted by strong corporate updates with interest rate optimism rising

The FTSE 100 gained ground on Thursday as solid developments from Rentokil and Entain added to general optimism around UK interest rates.

London’s leading index was 0.5% higher at the time of writing.

“There was enough enthusiasm towards shares in industrials, energy producers and financials to stop the FTSE 100 from going into reverse amid the latest disappointment from China and a slump in profit from packaging group Mondi,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

A good start to the session for the FTSE 100 was made even better by the European Central Bank’s decision to cut rates by a further 0.25% to 3.5%.

After UK inflation fell to 1.7% yesterday, the ECB’s move to cut rates lends further weight to the view the Bank of England will cut rates in November and possibly again in December. Equity bulls will be over the moon with sustained rate cuts by the world’s major central banks.

Entain

Entain shares jumped 5% after revealing encouraging gaming net revenue figures in their joint venture with MGM and said they saw the UK and Ireland returning to growth sooner than first thought. The new CEO also made an impression with comments on speeding up the improvements to operations.

“Ladbrokes owner Entain’s new CEO Gavin Isaacs is certainly going out on the front foot after just over a month in the job. After the hints dropped in September’s strategy update, it’s no huge surprise to get an upgrade, albeit a small one, in today’s review of the third quarter,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“That’s been helped by underlying online Net Gaming Revenue improving by 9% which included a sooner-than-expected return to growth in the UK & Ireland.”

Rentokil Initial was the FTSE 100’s top gainer as investors cheered the first bit of good news from the pest control company in some time. Investors will be relieved to see Rentokil’s sales grew 3.6% in the third quarter on a constant currency basis following down beat warnings earlier in the year.

There was also cause to be mildly optimistic about North America where the group is taking measures to realign its cost base. The integration of the acquired Terminix into the group was said to be going well suggesting greater synergies in the coming periods.

“While today’s material bounce in the share price for pest control firm Rentokil will be sweet relief for shareholders who have endured a tough period, the move is worth putting in context, Russ Mould explained.

“The shares had been weak heading into the third-quarter update so they are now only modestly higher over the course of the last week and are still down more than 20% since September’s profit warning.

“Investors will have been reassured by the fact full-year targets remain unchanged and by the action taken to boost organic growth in North America and bring costs back under control. The company has also revamped its senior leadership team across the Atlantic.”

Rentokil Initial shares were 9% higher at the time of writing.

AIM movers: N Brown bid and ex-dividends

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Joshua Alliance is offering 40p/share in cash for each share in N Brown Group (LON: BWNG) – the share price has not been this high since February 2023. The Alliance family and related parties already own 53.4% of N Brown. This bid values the fashion brands company at £191m. The chief executive and finance director of N Brown will elect for a share alternative. The share price jumped 42.8% to 38.55p.

Identity fraud and location software GB Group (LON: GBG) improved interim revenues by 4.5% to £137m. There was a decline in fraud revenues because of timing issues, but identity and location revenues were higher. Operating profit was one-fifth ahead at £29m. Net debt has fallen from £80.9m to £72m in the six months to September 2024. The share price rebounded 11.6% to 322.7p.

Orosur Mining Inc (LON: OMI) has gained TSX-V approval for the return to 100% ownership of the Anza gold project in Colombia. Technical completion is being progressed so that Orosur Mining can start field operations. The share price improved 5.66% to 2.8p.

Decision making software provider ActiveOps (LON: AOM) grew first half revenues by 9% to £14.3m. Annualised recurring revenues are £26.2m. Net revenue retention is 1085. There is cash of £13.4m. Demand is being driven by organisations needing to reduce the cost base. Investment in sales will pay off next year. The share price rose 4.08% to 127.5p.

FALLERS

Europa Oil & Gas (LON: EOG) responded to media speculation over planning permission of the Wressle well site, where it owns 30%. There is a letter setting out the intention to challenge the decision of North Lincolnshire council decision to grant permission for an extension to the Wressle site and a pipeline. The share price declined 10.3% to 0.875p. Union Jack Oil (LON: UJO) has a 40% interest in the Wressle development and the share price fell 6.12% to 11.5p.

Frontier IP (LON: FIPP) investee company The Vaccine Group, along with The Animal and Plant Health Agency, has been awarded an Innovate UK Smart grant of more than £400,000. This will fund the development of a vaccine for cattle to treat bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) and lumpy skin disease (LSD). The Frontier IP share price slid 3.03% to 32p.

Premier African Minerals (LON: PREM) is spending $50,000 on adjustments to the Zulu lithium and tantalum project processing plant. This is likely to be a short-term solution and should improve the grade and recovery levels. The company plans to recommence production, but the timing is uncertain. A Chinse EPCM contractor has provided proposals for a complete spodumene flotation plant, and this could help to increase production. The share price dipped 1.04% to 0.0475p.

Ex-dividends

Animalcare (LON: ANCR) is paying an interim dividend of 2p/share and the share price dipped 1p to 237p.

Livermore Investments Group (LON: LIV) is paying a dividend of 4.23 cents/share and the share price is 2.3p lower at 45.2p.

Next 15 Group (LON: NFG) is paying an interim dividend of 754.p/share and the share price rose 1.5p to 406p.

M Winkworth (LON: WINK) is paying a dividend of 3p/share and the share price fell 1p to 201p.

Zytronic – Could This Prove To Be A Good Trade Ahead Of Strategic Review Results?

Perhaps the writing was beginning to show up faintly on the wall when Zytronic (LON:ZYT) earlier this year signalled lower year-on-year sales.

In mid-May, when announcing its Interim Results to end-March, the Blaydon-upon-Tyne based group, which is a leading specialist manufacturer of touch sensors, reported sales down from £4.7m to just £3.3m at half-way.

The Business

The group’s operating subsidiary, Zytronic Display, is a world-renowned developer and manufacturer of a unique range of internationally award-winning optically transparent interactive touch sensor overlay products for use with electronic displays in industrial, self-service and public access equipment.

ZDL’s products employ a sensing solution that is readily configurable and is embedded in a laminate core which offers significant durability, environmental stability, and optical enhancement benefits to meet system-specific design requirements.

The ZDL service is relatively unique in the touch eco-system as it offers a complete one-stop solution including processing internally of the form and factor of glass and film substrates, the assembly of the associated touch overlay products, in environmentally controlled cleanrooms to customers’ specific requirements and the development of the bespoke firmware, software and electronic hardware which links the manufactured touch interactive overlays to customer’s integrated systems and product.

Yesterday’s Pre-Close Trading Update

The group guided that it expects to report unaudited revenues for the year to the end of September of £7.2m (£8.6m), and that is despite a 22% increase in revenues in the second half.

It noted that trading conditions remained challenging and based on current order intake, that the Board does not anticipate a material recovery in volumes over the short to medium term.

Strategic Review

As an extension to the Update the group announced its intention to undertake a strategic review, in conjunction with shareholders, to assess the future options for the company.

The group’s Management considers that those options are:

1.     the implementation of a new strategic business plan;

2.     an orderly solvent liquidation of the group’s assets;

3.     the potential sale of the company;

4.     de-listing and continuing as a private company, either continuing with the business as currently undertaken but without the considerable costs associated with maintaining the company’s admission to trading on AIM, or through implementing its Transformation Plan; or

5.     selling the company’s assets and continuing as a ‘cash shell’.

Solvent Liquidation

As at the end of March, the company’s notified statement of financial position, stated that it had net assets of £12.9m, of which £8.4m comprised property, plant and equipment and cash.

The company’s cash balance as at end-September was £3.7m (H1 FY24: £3.7m).

The Potential Sale Of the Company

The company noted that it is not in discussions with, nor in receipt of any approach from, any potential offeror.

In My View

Yesterday the group’s shares collapsed to a 40p low at one stage, down 25% in reaction to the news.

However, by the close of trading they had picked up to 46.75p, valuing the company at just £4.75m.

At that price I would suggest that Zytronic shares could well prove to be an exciting gamble on any of its options coming to a successful conclusion.

Protected by its solvent position, its quoted status, with some 45% of its 10.16m shares in ‘professional’ hands, I would consider that it is now coming up on corporate screens as a potential play, most likely as a very usable vehicle for a technology entrepreneur looking for a quick quote.

N Brown Group to can listing as takeover agreed

N Brown Group is to leave AIM after agreeing to a takeover by a group controlled by an existing shareholder and pursue its ambitious growth plans as a private company.

Falcon 24 Topco Limited, controlled by Joshua Alliance, has agreed to acquire N Brown Group plc in a recommended cash offer. The deal values N Brown at approximately £191 million, with shareholders receiving 40p in cash per share.

N Brown owns and operates outlets and websites including Jacamo, JD Williams and Simply Be.

The price represents a significant premium of 111.0% to the 12-month average closing price.

The acquisition will be implemented through a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement. Joshua Alliance currently owns 6.6% of N Brown’s shares, with other Alliance family members holding an additional 53.4%.

Falcon 24 Topco cites several reasons for the acquisition, including N Brown’s limited benefits from its AIM listing due to low trading liquidity and the costs associated with being public.

N Brown sees an opportunity to acquire well-established fashion brands and an innovative financial services platform. It appears they feel AIM can no longer support such ambitions.

The company asserts that N Brown can better achieve its growth potential as a private entity, considering market dynamics and the competitive landscape in the UK clothing and footwear market.

Helium One shares tick higher on Galactica progress

Helium One shares were higher on Thursday after the company provided an update on its Colorado operation and approval from authorities to begin exploration activities.

The Colorado Energy and Carbon Management Commission (ECMC) has approved five new helium development well locations at the Galactica-Pegasus project in Las Animas County, Colorado.

The newly approved wells, located south and southwest of the successful State-16 well, are expected to contribute to the initial gas gathering for the jointly developed Galactica helium production facility. This development satisfies a crucial condition precedent to the farm-in agreement between Helium One Global and Blue Star Helium covering Galactica facility.

Drilling at the Galactica Project is anticipated to commence in Q4 2024, subject to final drilling permit approvals. The project builds on Blue Star’s previous successful exploration campaign, which included the State-16 well capable of producing up to 441 Mscf/d of gas with 1.9% helium content.

Investors will be pleased the approvals further strengthen the diversification of Helium One’s asset base, expanding its portfolio beyond its primary Tanzanian projects. Both companies are currently finalising the definitive governing agreements for the farm-in, with further announcements expected in the near future.

“This is a positive advancement for the Galactica-Pegasus project and we’re very much looking forward to working with the Blue Star team and commencing the drilling phase for this development,” said Lorna Blaisse, Chief Executive Officer.

“We look forward to providing further updates on this and our operations in Rukwa in due course.”

Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust expands Irish solar footprint

Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust (ORIT) has completed the acquisition of a 42MW solar farm near Dublin, Ireland.

This addition brings ORIT’s five-site solar complex in the area to a total capacity of 241MW, making it the largest in Ireland. The complex is expected to contribute approximately 2.5% towards Ireland’s national solar target of 8GW by 2030.

The total acquisition cost for the five-site complex was €198 million, with €38 million attributed to this latest addition. Financing included a €104 million 20-year debt facility, of which €23 million was used for the new site.

The solar farm benefits from a 15-year Power Purchase Agreement with Microsoft. With this acquisition, ORIT’s total operational renewable energy capacity reaches 802MW, capable of powering about 50,000 homes and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by around 70,000 tonnes annually.

“We are delighted to have completed on the fifth solar site following its energisation, underscoring our continued commitment to increasing green electricity generation through renewable infrastructure projects,” said Phil Austin, Chairman of Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust plc. 

“This solar complex will play a crucial role in providing sustainable electricity to Ireland to help it meet its clean energy goals and represents a step forward in our mission to deliver long-term value for our shareholders and positive environmental impact.” 

AIM movers: CloudCoCo selling managed IT services business and weak markets for Sanderson Design

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CloudCoCo (LON: CLCO) is selling its managed IT services business for £9.2m. This will discharge liabilities, including the MXC loan notes, and leave cash of £950,000. If the sale does not go ahead management will need to consider if there is a future for the group. There are also discussions concerning the sale of the Connect business. The focus will be on the product reseller business. The share price soared 210.3% to 0.45p – the highest level since April.

Healthcare communications technology developer Feedback (LON: FDBK) says that reimbursement for its Bleepa technology sales is available via the Elective Recovery Fund. It means that integrated care boards can adopt the technology with no capital investment to reduce waiting lists. They will gain a payment of £206 per patient. The market could be worth £2m for each of the 42 integrated care boards there are currently ten interested in Bleepa. Implementation costs should be less than £50,000 per client. The share price jumped 60.3% to 58.5p.

Allergy Therapeutics (LON: AGY) has entered into a £40m senior loan facility with Hayfin Healthcare Opportunities LuxCo and increased the existing loan facility from £40m to £50m – the repayment date is extending to October 2030. There is £27.5m drawn down from the existing facility. European approval of the grass allergy treatment could be received in the next 12 months. The share price improved 17.7% to 5p.

Trafalgar Property Group (LON: TRAF) has received planning permission to demolish the existing property and build detached houses at Talbot Park in Tunbridge Wells. The share price is 15.4% higher at 0.0375p.

FALLERS

Graphene technology developer Versarien (LON: VRS) is raising £450,000 at 0.0325p/share, which will fund in-house concrete and mortar testing capabilities and other external testing. Versarien has signed 3D construction printed products. There are commercial opportunities worth £1.6m and related grants of £3.1m. The share price dived 39.1% to 0.0322p.

Weak interior design markets, particularly in the UK, hit interim the figures of Sanderson Design Group (LON: SDG). The timing of licensing revenues exacerbated the downturn in underlying pre-tax profit from £6.8m to £2.2m. The dividend has been reduced by one-third to 0.5p/share. Net cash fell to £9.6m at the end of July 2024.Trading continues to weaken with a 10% downturn in revenues so far in this financial year. The aftermath of the UK Budget and the US election could determine the full year outcome. Investec has reduced its pre-tax profit forecast by 8% to £7.5m, down from £12.2m last year. The share price declined 17% to 63.5p.  

Africa-focused oil and gas company Tower Resources (LON: TRP) is raising £1.19m at 0.027p/share and the company has received an updated financing proposal for the Thali PSC in Cameroon. This would provide more than $15m to fund additional drilling in return for a minority interest. The discussions continue and there are other interested parties. The share price slipped 13.7% to 0.0315p.

Touch screens manufacturer Zytronic (LON: ZYT) says full year revenues will decline from £8.6m to £7.2m even though there was a recovery in second half revenues. Volumes are not expected to recover in the short-term. This has sparked a strategic review that could include the sale of the company or liquidation of assets – NAV was 127p/share at the end of March 2024. The operating business is expanding its PCAP product range and reducing its manufacturing footprint. The share price fell 6.54% to 50p.

FTSE 100 jumps after UK inflation points to interest rate cuts

The FTSE 100 was firmly higher on Wednesday as UK-centric stocks helped London’s leading index outperform amid a sell off in technology shares.

Interest rates were again in focus ahead of next month interest rate decision after lower inflation data almost cemented a 25bps interest rate cut by the Bank of England on 7 November.

UK inflation has fallen to 1.7%, well below the Bank of England’s 2% target, leaving them little choice but to ease borrowing costs. It was likely the bank would cut rates before today’s inflation data with the economy struggling to produce any growth.

As one would expect, most stocks with exposure to the UK economy were having a good day on Wednesday and were among the top gainers.

“On a day when investors are dealing with the headache of a big sell-off in many tech stocks, the UK has come into its own and been a shining light on global markets,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The FTSE 100 climbed 0.7% to 8,309 thanks to commodity producers taking centre stage, together with a healthy dose of gains from AstraZeneca, Rolls-Royce and HSBC.

“Providing back-up support was a group of stocks that stand to benefit from interest rate cuts in the UK.

“Housebuilders Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon, kitchens group Howden Joinery and DIY retailer Kingfisher were all in vogue after UK inflation hit a three-and-a-half year low, strengthening the argument for the Bank of England to cut the cost of borrowing next month.

“Investors are taking the view that financial pressures are easing on households and the public will soon be in a stronger position to spend money. This would be good for the economy and good for the army of stocks on the UK market that rely on consumers to make money.”

Whitbread was the FTSE 100’s top riser after announcing a bumper round of share buybacks and set out plans to return £2bn to shareholders over the next five years. Shareholders love share buybacks and the stock rose over 4% on Wednesday.

Miners also found support on Wednesday after days of steady selling. Antofagasta rose 2.8% and Endeavour Mining added 2.7%.

Insurance companies Admiral and Beazley were residing at the bottom of the leaderboard with losses around 2%-3%.

SP Angel sees 60% upside in Tekcapital shares

Tekcapital shares are primed for a rerating, according to a research note released on Wednesday by SP Angel analysts who see 60% appreciation in Tekcapital as interest rates fall and investment company discounts return to normal.

“The estimated value of Tekcapital’s equity investments, either at current market prices (77% of portfolio) or conservative estimate of unlisted investments (23% of portfolio), currently stands at $36.7m. This equates to an asset value per share of 15.6p meaning the shares are trading at a discount of 52%,” SP Angel analysts wrote in a note.

SP Angel explained higher interest rates had led to large investment company discounts to NAV through higher weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and that as interest rates start to fall, WACCs should fall and provide support for the valuations of investment companies such as Tekcapital.

In addition to the external macro influences on the Tekcapital share price, SP Angel highlighted welcomed the boost to NAV by the GenIP IPO and the creation of value in the business where there had previously been no value attributed to Tekcapital.

Investors may be interested to see SP Angel account for broad discounts in the investment company space by adjusting their NAV assessment of 18.5p per share by 35% when deriving their fair value target.

Even with a 35% discount to NAV factored into their fair value, SP Angel’ research concluded Tekcapital’s fair value target should be 12p, offering 60% upside from the current price.

“If we target fair value for Tekcapital in line with an average discount to fair value currently seen in the market for investment companies of c35%, we arrive at a target price of 12p. This lies 60% above the current share price. Buy,” SP Angel explained.