BP shares fall with little progress expected in Q2 2024

Energy giant BP has released its trading statement for the second quarter of 2024, offering a glimpse into slowing production rates in its upstream business while static oil price offer little in the way of encouragement for investors.

BP shares were 3.47% lower at the time of writing.

“A teaser ahead of second-quarter results later this month from BP suggests they won’t be a winner,” said Russ Mould of AJ Bell.

In the upstream sector, BP forecasts production levels to remain largely stable compared to the previous quarter. However, the company’s gas and low carbon energy segment may face headwinds, with an anticipated adverse impact of around £0.1 billion due to declining non-Henry Hub natural gas prices.

This setback is expected to be partially offset by an average performance in gas marketing and trading.

The oil production and operations segment presents a more positive outlook. BP projects a favourable impact ranging from £0.1 to £0.3 billion, primarily driven by price lags on its production in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE. This boost could provide a welcome counterbalance to challenges in other areas.

BP’s customers and products segment paints a mixed picture. While the company expects stronger fuels margins and improved convenience store performance, these gains may be overshadowed by significantly lower refining margins.

Oil refining margins boomed during the period of higher energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine but those days are firmly in the rearview mirror now.

BP estimates an adverse impact of £0.5 to £0.7 billion in this area, mainly due to weaker middle distillate margins and narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials. However, the absence of the Whiting refinery outage, which cost the company about £0.5 billion in the first quarter, should provide some relief.

BP anticipates post-tax adverse adjusting items related to asset impairments and onerous contract provisions, ranging from £1.0 to £2.0 billion. This includes charges stemming from the ongoing review of the Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany, which was announced in March.

“BP’s second-quarter update revealed that upstream production is now likely to be broadly flat compared to the first quarter, an improvement over the slight fall expected in previous guidance,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“But BP’s integrated model means there are a lot of moving parts, and they haven’t all been pointing in the same direction. Higher margins at the pump have been tempered by weaker selling prices for some refined products in the customer segment. There shouldn’t be too much change, if any, to analyst expectations off the back of this statement.

“BP’s focus has been a little scattergun of late, but it’s likely to remain an important part of the energy mix for some time to come. It still has one eye on the energy transition, and there appears to be little downward pressure on the oil price in the immediate future. This should keep both cash flow and generous distributions to investors flowing. At sub 8x earnings and with a yield of 5%, the shares are worth a look.”

itim Group – Tiddler Turning Into Whopper With Recent Big Contract Wins, Making Shares Start To Appeal

This little software solutions business, which is capitalised at just under £12m, is now beginning to turn around from losing money over the last three years.

Recent new business wins and existing contract renewals will help to drive its ARR to well over 75%.

I like that, especially if ongoing operating costs can be contained tightly enough to see good bottom line results in due course.

The Business

The itim Group (LON:ITIM) was established in 1993 by its founder, and current CEO, Ali Athar.

Initially it was a consulting business, helping retailers’ effect operational improvement, before six years later expanding into the provision of proprietary software solutions.

By 2004 it was focused exclusively on digital technology.

Over the years the company has grown both organically and through a series of acquisitions of small, legacy retail software systems and associated applications which itim has redeveloped to create a fully integrated end to end Omni-channel platform.

Today is principally operating as a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) based technology company.

It enables the store-based retailers to optimise their businesses to improve financial performance.

Its solutions include Unify Sales, Unify Stock, Unify Pricing & Promotions, Unify Supply and its Profimetrics AI Suite, which is a multi-level management, simulation and optimization engine. T.

It has developed an omnichannel platform that enables retailers to adopt an engaging customer-centric approach to shopping in-store, online and on mobile.

Its retail software solutions support multi-channel sales and service, enterprise order management, price and stock optimisation, and supplier management.

Recent Big-Name Wins

In late February it won a five year multi-million-pound contract for its Omni channel retail platform with QUIZ clothing, a fashion retailer specialising in occasion wear and dressy casual wear with 73 stores and 274 concessions in the UK.

Two months later it announced an additional services contract for its Unify platform with toy retailer The Entertainer which is opening in over 800 Tesco stores across the UK and Ireland.

In the middle of May it announced a five year multi-million-pound contract renewal with Majestic Wine, the UKs largest specialist retailer with over 200 stores.

Earlier this month it announced that it had signed a five-year multi-million-pound contract with Assaí Atacadista, the largest Brazilian wholesaler, with more than 300 stores.

The Equity

There are some 31.2m shares in issue.

Larger holders include the Athar family (38.40%), Lewis family (18.07%), Robert Frosell, Dir (7.64%), Herald Investment Management (6.37%), Curtis family (4.12%), Ian Hayes, Dir (2.72%), Michael Jackson, Chmn (1.76%), Sandra da Costa Ribeiro, Dir (0.87%) and Justin King (0.742%).

Analyst View

Charlie Cullen and John Cummins at WH Ireland consider that this group’s shares are trading on an undemanding rating compared to their ‘fair value’ of 55p a share.

For the current year to end December they have estimated revenues of £17.0m (£16.1m), with its pre-tax loss easing to just £1.0m (£1.1m), leaving the company with £0.5m cash at bank.

For next year the analysts see a turn into profits of £0.4m on the back of £19.0m in revenues, generating earnings of 1.8p per share and with a doubling of cash at bank of £1.0m.

My View

This group’s shares are already allowing for a substantial improvement in profitability, sufficient to justify an even higher market price.

Its growth in revenues is steady and that should result in greater bottom-line results.

Just two years ago the company’s shares were trading at 125p, since when they have been as low as 20p in December last year.

They touched 46p in early March ahead of announcing its 2023 results.

The shares have held steady since the mid-May AGM Statement, and appeal at around the 37p level.

AI Singularity and UK Generative AI Startups with Tekcapital’s Dr Clifford Gross

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to welcome Dr Clifford Gross, CEO of Tekcapital, to the podcast for a deep exploration of Generative AI and investor demand for UK AI startups.

This podcast delves into the current state and future potential of Generative AI (GenAI), focusing on the near-term opportunity for early-stage companies through to the hypothetical event of AI singularity decades from now. Dr Gross provides insight into the trajectory of the GenAI industry, with hypothetical AI singularity forecast by 2045 by leading experts. We AI advancements that will lead to enhanced human capabilities through seamless integration of AI systems with individuals and even AI singularity in the future.

The discussion touches on Tekcapital’s plans to launch a GenAI-focused company in the third quarter of 2024.

Nvidia has dominated AI-related gains in the stock market; we question whether applications from companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla will be the ultimate winners, or if companies implementing these tools will produce the greatest shareholder value.

We explore the United Kingdom as an emerging leader in GenAI startups within Europe and the Middle East. The podcast also looks at the potential for GenAI applications to integrate into various sectors, with knowledge-intensive businesses likely to be the initial beneficiaries.

Dr Gross suggests that customers will be the ultimate beneficiaries of GenAI advancements, gaining access to better-informed solutions at lower costs.

FTSE 100 gains in choppy trade after surprise French election results, Labour outlines growth plans

The FTSE 100 reversed early losses on Monday as investors digested surprise French election results, the new Labour Chancellor’s growth plans, and US jobs data.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.3% at the time of writing after trading firmly in the red in early trade. The French CAC was 0.2% to the good.

“So much for the summer lull. Just as you thought the UK going to the polls was enough drama, political twists and turns in France and the US have put investors in a spin as they try to work out the lay of the land in those geographies,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Many feared a far-right victory in the French elections, however, a leaning towards the left yielding a hung parliament sent a wave of relief across markets.

“France has lurched into fresh uncertainty and a parliamentary power grouping of different radical stripes, with the surge in support for the far-left New Popular Front alliance. With the most seats, the aim of the party will be to force a back-track on President Macron’s unpopular reforms aimed at cutting France’s deficit,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

As France joined the UK with a left-leaning government, the new Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves outlined a plan to boost the UK’s growth including reforming planning rules and setting out building targets.

FTSE 100 housebuilders have been among the best-performing stocks in the run-up to the election, and the gains continued on Friday as the result was confirmed. The reaction was slightly more muted on Monday as investors chose to wait for more concrete plans and held off fresh bets on the sector.

Although housebuilding gains were minor on Monday, there was a robust bid for UK banks and mining companies which helped provide support for the index.

Further afield, markets were pricing in the chance of a US interest rate cut in the near term after downward revisions in US Non-Farm Payrolls prior to June painted a slightly weaker picture of the US economy than first thought. 

The US may also soon provide a source of volatility should the quiet murmurings about Joe Biden discontinuing his bid for a second term in the white house become a reality.

“There were growing calls for Joe Biden to step aside in the 2024 presidential campaign,” Russ Mould said.

“While investors have become more confident about a near-term rate cut from the Federal Reserve, uncertainty over who might run the country for the next four years threatens to become a new worry point for the market. The Democrats are cutting it fine to announce a replacement presidential candidate if Biden does drop out.”

S&P 500 weekly technical outlook 8th July

For the past couple of weeks we have been a little cautious on the markets as price had seemed over stretched on the recent optimism, this bearish skew was strengthened with the Hindenburg Omen being triggered which highlighted how so much of this move was down to just a few names in the index and not due to broad buying right across the market.

But the power of these few names has been too strong in recent days, so despite ongoing concerns that the strength is rather too concentrated to be ideal, there is still underlying buying interest.

The index dipped marginally early last week but buyers quickly returned and lifted the index up to fresh all-time highs as the concerns over the US economy over the longer term are being outweighed by hopes that the Fed will have room to cut rates later in the year.

The major concern for the week ahead is the serious risk that President Biden may yet drop out of the election race and could even step down as President due to his now impossible to ignore serious mental decline. Previously the administration, and much of the US left leaning media, had played down this mental decline as they believed he was still able to win the election.

After the truly disastrous debate performance all hopes of this has faded. So now the US media has started to turn on Biden as they can see another Trump presidency looming, as the outcome of a Trump vs Biden contest is clear. So now finally the US media is putting pressure on Biden to step down, not because they were not aware of this before, but because now they cannot lie enough to cover it up anymore.

This could well cause a significant shock to the markets and increase volatility as the probability of another Trump presidency gets priced in. So traders do need to be wary of possible volatility ahead.

This volatility could be a near term shock to the down-side due to the strong short term trends which may have over extended. We would not turn outright negative however until/unless support areas are broken, currently down around 5420. Moves under here would drop the index back into the previous trading range, blue region on chart.

AIM movers: Goldstone Resources gold production set to rise and Biome Technologies delay

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Goldstone Resources (LON: GRL) says gold production at the Homase project in Ghana was 1,400 ounces by the middle of June, with gold recoveries doubled to 68%. Production is set to increase to 1,000 ounces/month. The share price soared 181.5% to 1.9p.  

Echo Energy (LON: ECHO) says two samples from mining shafts at the Tesoro gold concession in southern Peru show high gold grades and recovery rates are more than 90%. Echo Energy has a 50% stake in Tesoro. Production could start later in the year. The share price is one-quarter higher at 0.004p.

ITM Power (LON: ITM) has gained a 500MW PEM electrolyser stack capacity reservation with a global customer. This capacity will be installed in Europe and the US. The agreement lasts until 2028. To put this in perspective, last year 33MW of capacity was sold. Zeus estimates that the deal could be worth a total of £150m. The share price increased 16.4% to 58.6p.

Thor Energy (LON: THR) has started drilling at the Alford East copper project in South Australia. There will be three water bores that will provide information for hydrological baseline studies. The drilling is a step in the process of demonstrating the viability of in-situ copper recovery at the site. The share price rose 11.8% to 0.95p.

FALLERS

Biome Technologies (LON: BIOM) is still suffering from delays in orders at its bioplastics division and technical validations may not be finalised until later in 2024. Also, the coffee packaging market has weakened. In contrast, there should be significant revenues from the RF Technologies division. Overall revenues will be well below expectations.  A small loss is expected for 2024. Additional working capital may be required. The share price slumped 42.9% to 40p.

TV programmes producer Zinc Media (LON: ZIN) has secured 2024 revenues of £28m, which is lower than the same time last year. There have been delays to signing deals, so that could be a timing issue. Improving TV advertising revenues could reduce the constraints on budgets and increase activity in the second half. Singer is maintaining its 2024 forecast revenues at £41m. The corporate video and branded content business has been restructured and costs reduced. The share price fell 21% to 66p.

Late on Friday, oil and gas company Orcadian Energy (LON: ORCA) says that the expected funds from its partner have not arrived. Shell International Trading and Shipping is aware of the delays and is reserving its rights under the agreement with Orcadian Energy because of the funding delays. The share price is 12.1% lower at 7.25p.

Communications and power products supplier Solid State (LON: SOLI) reported a jump in full year pre-tax profit from £10.8m to £15.6m, but this level of profit will not be maintained this year. There was strong demand in the systems division and a £10m order was delivered earlier than expected. There will also be additional investment in integrated systems this year to secure larger contracts. WH Ireland forecasts a 2024-25 pre-tax profit of £10.1m, following a dip in revenues from £163.3m to £142.1m. This could be boosted by one-off deals. The share price dipped 4.25% to 1465p.

Aptamer Group shares jump on revenue growth and strong order book

Aptamer Group plc, the AIM-listed developer of Optimer® binders for life sciences innovation, has revealed a significant upturn in sales in its trading update for the year ending 30 June 2024.

The company reported unaudited revenue of approximately £0.85 million, with £0.55 million generated in the second half of the year, suggesting gathering momentum for the company.

Aptamer Group shares were 5.50% higher at the time of writing.

The company’s order book has shown promising growth, with £0.98 million in orders won in the final quarter alone. This surge has resulted in a total of £1.8 million in signed orders currently being processed or awaiting processing in the laboratory.

Investors will also be encouraged by a pipeline of advanced sales negotiations totalling £2.1 million.

On the technical front, Aptamer Group has made substantial progress in advancing key Optimer assets. The company is working with a top-five pharmaceutical company to evaluate Optimer binders for Immunohistochemistry (IHC), with potential for licensing. In partnership with Neuro-Bio, Aptamer is developing a rapid diagnostic test for early Alzheimer’s disease, with negotiations for downstream royalties underway.

The company has also submitted a patent application for Optimer binders intended for the treatment of malodour, with on-person functionality studies planned for the second half of 2024. This project, if successful, could result in licensing the Optimer binders to Unilever.

“The trajectory of both sales and revenue shows increasing potential, putting Aptamer Group on a good footing for the forthcoming year.,” said Steve Hull, Executive Chair of Aptamer Group

“The team has worked hard to rebuild the pipeline in the past year, and it is pleasing to see we have achieved a continued increase in sales throughout the year, with £0.98 million sales orders signed in the final quarter alone showing this work is beginning to pay off for the Company.

“We have made excellent technical progress this year having focussed on key strategic assets. Successful work is ongoing with Unilever to deliver Optimers aimed for use in personal care products, and we have had high interest from multiple top pharma companies in our Optimer delivery vehicles for fibrotic liver disease. As we continue to progress these projects with our partners, the Company increases its potential to generate significant licensing revenue from these high-value assets.”

Britvic set for £3.3 Billion takeover by brewing giant Carlsberg

Britvic, the UK-based soft drinks manufacturer, has agreed to a £3.3 billion takeover offer from Danish brewing company Carlsberg. The deal, which values Britvic at an enterprise value of £4.1 billion, is a blow to the London market as another high-quality company goes private.

Britvic shares were 5% higher at the time of writing.

Under the terms of the agreement, Britvic shareholders will receive 1,315 pence per share, comprising 1,290 pence in cash and a special dividend of 25 pence. This offer represents a substantial 36% premium to Britvic’s closing share price on 19 June 2024, the day before takeover speculation began to circulate.

The company, known for brands such as Robinsons, Fruit Shoot, and Tango, as well as being PepsiCo’s bottling partner in the UK, will form a key part of Carlsberg’s strategy to create an integrated beverage company in the UK, to be named Carlsberg Britvic.

“Carlsberg has prevailed in its pursuit of soft drinks firm Britvic, further thinning the ranks of the UK market and depriving investors of an opportunity to buy a company and stock which has enjoyed steady success since its 2005 IPO,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The writing was on the wall for Britvic as an independent entity when it emerged Carlsberg had secured a waiver on a change of ownership clause associated with a bottling contract Britvic enjoys with PepsiCo. Carlsberg wouldn’t have gone to the trouble of getting this detail if it wasn’t serious about getting the deal across the line.

“It probably isn’t the best price tag in the world for Britvic – only around 3% more in headline terms than a second bid which Britvic rebuffed on the grounds it was being significantly undervalued – but it is a fairly weighty premium to the undisturbed share price. It also includes the helpful kicker of a 25p special dividend to be paid before the transaction goes through.”

Britvic’s operations are expected to benefit from synergies with Carlsberg’s existing business. Carlsberg has identified potential annual cost savings and efficiency improvements of around £100 million, to be realised over five years following the acquisition. These savings are anticipated to come from areas such as procurement, supply chain optimisation, and administrative overheads.

Britvic’s presence in other markets is also set to be maintained and potentially enhanced. Carlsberg has stated its intention to retain Britvic Ireland on an as-is basis, while seeing potential for Britvic’s Teisseire business to benefit from Carlsberg’s strong presence in the French market.

ITM Power shares jump after announcing green hydrogen electrolyser agreement

ITM Power shares jumped on Monday after the green hydrogen electrolyser manufacturer said it has secured future manufacturing contracts in a new deal.

In a short statement providing little in the way of detail, ITM has announced the signing of a 500MW capacity reservation with a global industrial client, ensuring future production capacity for the manufacture of the company’s cutting-edge green hydrogen electrolyser stacks.

The contract extends to the close of the 2028 calendar year and ITM Power anticipates orders in Europe and the United States.

At present, both parties have agreed to withhold additional contract details.

“Today’s announcement is a great example of how close collaboration will unlock competitive and successful green hydrogen projects,” said Dennis Schulz, CEO ITM.

“Following the already announced capacity reservation for 100MW from Shell, this agreement with yet another large-scale industrial customer is a validation of our technology and credibility to deliver.”

10 ways to save capital gains tax by Hargreaves Lansdown

Hargreaves Lansdown have outlined 10 methods for saving on capital gains tax as investors await possible changes to the tax by the new Labour government.

Labour hasn’t yet outlined any plans to change current rules, but the change in government increases the chances of amendments to the tax in the future.

“As Rachel Reeves settles into Number 11, attention will turn back to capital gains tax,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The government said it doesn’t have any plans to change the current rules, but it hasn’t ruled it out either. If they don’t get the robust growth they need in order to make their sums add up, there’s a risk this particular tax is in the frame.

“More to the point, even if the government doesn’t make any tweaks at all, you could still pay more capital gains tax – thanks to frozen income tax thresholds. CGT rates depend on your marginal tax rate, so if the freeze has pushed you from basic rate to higher rate tax, your capital gains will cost you more. 

“Meanwhile, investors are still reeling from the fact that the previous government slashed the tax-free allowance from £12,300 a year to just £3,000 over the course of two years. It means more people face paying more of this tax, and anyone who hopes to make any gains from investments, should consider how to protect themselves.

“This should include asking yourself whether you should realise some gains in the current tax year. You can crystalise £3,000 of gains tax-free. You might even want to realise more, especially if you’re a basic rate taxpayer keen to pay 10% on those gains while you know where you stand. However, it’s vital not to rush into anything. No changes have even been floated, and if they did come in, it wouldn’t be until next April at the earliest. So there’s plenty of time to weigh up your position and make a sensible decision.”

10 ways to save capital gains tax by Hargreaves Lansdown

  1. Consider your tax position next year. 

You will often have a choice as to when you take a capital gain, so it’s worth considering in the context of what you think could happen to CGT and your overall tax position. If, for example, you expect to earn far less income next year and be in a lower tax band, deferring cashing in could mean you pay a lower rate of CGT on at least some of the gain. Conversely, it may be beneficial to take your profits in this tax year if you expect to pay more tax in the future.

  1. Use your annual allowance

You get an annual CGT allowance on a use-it-or-lose it basis. If you’re building up a big gain, you can realise it gradually, over a period of years, £3,000 at a time, and pay no tax. You can sell investments and reinvest the money, effectively resetting your gains to zero.

  1. Offset any losses you make during the tax year 

In any given year you may have losses on some investments and gains on others. You can use this to your advantage. When you complete your tax return, you can add details of the losses you’ve made, which will be offset against the gains when you’re calculating how much CGT you owe. In some cases, this will bring the CGT bill down to zero.

  1. You may be able to deduct any unused losses from previous tax years

If you make more losses than gains, you should still make a claim for the extra losses. You will then be able to carry them forward into next year, to offset against any gains you make then. You can’t do this unless you have made a claim for the loss in the year you made it. 

  1. Use a stocks and shares ISA

After the annual exemption of £3,000, CGT on stocks and shares is charged at 10% for basic-rate taxpayers and 20% for higher and additional-rate payers. By moving investments into an ISA, CGT is completely avoided. It’s worth noting this isn’t just a boon when you decide to sell up and cash out, it also makes an enormous difference every time you rebalance your portfolio as you go along.

  1. Use Share Exchange (Bed & ISA)

ISAs aren’t just useful for brand new investments. If you have assets outside an ISA or pension, you can use the Share Exchange (Bed & ISA) process to sell assets outside an ISA – within your £3,000 CGT allowance – and move them into the ISA wrapper. That way you don’t have to worry about either dividend tax or CGT on these investments at any point. 

  1. Don’t forget Sharesave schemes 

Workplace share schemes can be incredibly valuable, but they may come with a capital gains tax sting. Fortunately, there’s an ISA rule that helps you save capital gains tax on shares from a Sharesave scheme or Share Incentive Plan (SIP). As long as you transfer the shares into an ISA within 90 days of the scheme maturing, and they are valued at less than your annual ISA allowance of £20,000, there won’t be any CGT to pay on these shares.

  1. Plan as a couple

If you’re married or in a civil partnership, you can transfer the ownership of some assets to your spouse or civil partner. There’s no CGT to pay on the transfer. When they sell up, there may well be tax to pay, and the gain will be calculated by comparing the cost on the day of selling with the day when their spouse originally bought the asset. However, they have a CGT allowance of their own to take advantage of, so a chunk of the gain won’t be subject to tax. If they’re taxed at a lower rate, they may also pay any CGT at a lower rate too.

  1. Consider CGT-free investments 

These aren’t going to save you any CGT you’re currently liable for, but may prevent you from creating another liability in future. They include gilts and things like Venture Capital Trusts. These aren’t right for everyone, and in the case of VCTs, they’re higher risk, so should only ever be considered as a small part of a large and diverse portfolio. However, if they suit you, in addition to the CGT and dividend tax saving, you can get up to 30% income tax relief on the amount you invest.

  1. Pay into a pension

Money paid into a pension will grow free of CGT, but that’s not all. Higher and additional rate taxpayers benefit from tax relief at their highest marginal rate. As a result, making contributions can push people out of paying higher rate tax altogether. The capital gains tax rate is lower for basic rate taxpayers, so bringing yourself under this threshold means you’ll pay tax at a lower rate on at least some of the gain.”