Compass Group shares gain after earnings upgrade

Compass Group shares jumped on Tuesday after the food service group delivered organic revenue growth of 10.3% in Q3, maintaining strong performance across all regions.

Compass Group shares were 4% higher at the time of writing.

The Group’s year-to-date organic revenue growth stands at an impressive 10.9%, with North America leading at 10.6%, followed by Europe at 12.2%, and Rest of World at 9.6%.

“Food service giant Compass continues to attract new business at pace, helping to support a second upgrade to annual forecasts this year,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

“This suggests the company’s decision to ease prices in line with inflation is a good one as it helps drive loyalty among existing customers and attract new ones, bolstering an already strong market position. It also suggests a return to the office – as hybrid working policies are adjusted – is proving beneficial.

“The company and its management team see plenty more business to go after, with a large chunk of catering still done in-house.”

Investors will be pleased to see Net New Business growth accelerated in Q3, while pricing moderated in line with inflation. The company’s volumes continued to benefit from its high-quality offerings and competitive pricing compared to high street alternatives, attracting more customers to its services.

Compass Group has been actively reshaping its portfolio, replicating its successful North American model in other regions. The company’s net expenditure on mergers and acquisitions, including the purchase of CH&CO and the sale of its Brazilian business, amounted to $836 million year-to-date.

A major driver to today’s share price performance will be an upgrade to guidance. The company now anticipates underlying operating profit growth to exceed 15% on a constant-currency basis, with organic revenue growth surpassing 10%.

Beazley confirms no change to guidance after Crowdstrike outage

Insurer Beazley has confirmed there is no change to its guidance after a global IT outage caused by Crowdstrike raised fears about potential claims.

As a leading cyber security insurer, Beazley was the FTSE 100’s biggest faller on Friday as an update fault rendered millions of Microsoft devices useless and brought airports, banks, and businesses across the globe to standstill.

Beazely investors breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday as the cyber security insured said the outage would not impact guidance for earnings.

In a statement released on Tuesday, Beazley said:

“Given the unprecedented nature of this event and Beazley’s position as a leading cyber insurer, the Company has elected to provide an update on its position in relation to the outage.  Based on what is known at this point, the event will not change the current undiscounted combined ratio guidance of low-80s for the full year.

“Beazley will update the market on its first half performance on 8 August and will provide any further relevant updates in relation to this event at that time.”

Beazley shares were 1.9% higher at the time of writing as investors digested the update and considered the longer term implications for the company.

“Beazley calmed market fears by saying there is no change to its full-year guidance as it currently stands. Whether that situation changes over the coming days is another thing. A lot of companies will still be getting their head around the full impact of the global IT outage and Beazley might simply be facing the calm before the storm,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

“The flipside is that more companies might feel compelled to buy cyber insurance to give them protection against any future incidents, which could benefit Beazley.”

Petro Matad issues progress update on Mongolian operations

Petro Matad has announced the commencement of completion operations on its Heron-1 oil discovery. The work, which began on 22 July, involves PetroChina’s well completion subsidiary DQE and Petro Matad’s team.

The update follows a recent fund raise which the company says will see them through to first production from their Block XX field.

The planned operations include a reservoir stimulation process to enhance near wellbore drainage and the installation of downhole production equipment. These activities are expected to conclude by mid-August.

Following the completion operations, the company will prepare the wellsite for surface production equipment installation, slated to begin in August. Once the surface equipment is connected and commissioned, the Heron-1 well will be ready for production start-up.

Petro Matad has scheduled meetings with the Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia (MRPAM) and PetroChina’s in-country management team before the end of July. These discussions aim to finalise cooperation agreements, allowing Petro Matad access to PetroChina’s oil processing facilities, transport, and oil sales infrastructure.

Investors will eagerly await further updates, and the company has committed to providing further updates as its 2024 work programme progresses.

FTSE 100 cheers Biden’s withdrawal, Rentokil soars

The FTSE 100 surged on Monday after President Joe Biden withdrew as the Democratic candidate for November’s general election.

Biden had been under pressure to withdraw after a series of blunders raised questions about his ability to carry out his duties in a second term. There were also major concerns he would even make it through the election campaign without further embarrassment, effectively handing the job to Donald Trump.

London’s leading index was 0.8% higher at the time of writing as investors cheered the removal of the ‘will he, won’t he’ uncertainty surrounding Biden continuing the election campaign.

“The market appears to have welcomed Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, given how futures prices imply a decent opening for Wall Street. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty until the new Democratic candidate is confirmed. That means we could see heightened volatility over the next few weeks, with assets quickly changing direction depending on the latest comments from Washington,” Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell said.

“Vice President Kamala Harris being endorsed by Biden helps to avoid any panic on markets for now, given she provides continuity and experience supporting the current President. That means the focus for markets in the near-term is likely to be investors reassessing any previous trades they made when it looked like Donald Trump would get back into power.”

The FTSE 100’s gains were broad, with 87 constituents trading higher at the time of writing.

Rentokil Initial was the top gainer after the pest control company became the latest UK-listed company to be targeted for a takeover by a private equity group. Rentokil Initial shares were 9% at the time of writing.

The bottom of the leaderboard was dominated by falling airlines after Ryanair reported a surprise miss in earnings estimates. Airlines and the rest of the travel sector have been enjoying a wave of optimism around the resilience of holiday makers during the cost of living crisis. Ryanair cast doubt over this today and sent a shock wave through the entire sector, sending Easyjet down 8% and IAG off by 3%.

“Ryanair disappoints as the outlook over the key summer period looks weak,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“First quarter profit after tax of €360mn was well below what markets expected as ticket prices plummeted. The outlook was poor, too, with Ryanair expecting lower prices as peak summer travel kicks in. There will be knock-on effects to the wider sector from this, though it’s a little unclear whether the likes of easyJet are facing issues at quite this scale.”

Tristel beats expectations as North American sales commence

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Disinfection products supplier Tristel (LON: TSTL) generated higher revenues than expected in the year to June 2024. The share price improved 6.67% to 480p.

Full year revenues were 16% ahead at £41.9m, which beat the company’s target rate of annual growth of 10-15%. Underlying pre-tax profit will be at least £8m, compared with the forecast of £7.6m. There was £11.6m in the bank at the end of June 2024.

Demand for Tristel products is strong across its various geographic regions. North American sales of Tristel ULT disinfectant for ultrasound instruments commenced in February.

Cavendish is holding off updating its forecasts until Matt Sassone takes over as its new chief executive in September and the full results are published in October. There should be a better idea of the new chief executive’s initial plans, although there is unlikely to be major changes. The 2024-25 pre-tax profit forecast is currently £10m.

Matt Sassone experience of the US market will be useful to Tristel. He developed the high usage programme (HUP) for non-invasive hemodynamic monitoring technology developer LiDCO. Under the HUP the hospital can treat any number of patients with a monitor during the year when they sign up for a multi-year deal.

AIM movers: SpaceandPeople signs five-year deal and Arcontech beats expectations

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SpaceandPeople (LON: SAL) has signed a five-year Network Rail and Southeastern Trains contract to provides events and promotions at their railway stations. This extends the relationship with Network Rail, while Southeastern Trains is a new client. This is substantial and will provide better revenues visibility. It follows a similar deal with German shopping centre operator ECE. The share price jumped 12.1% to 92.5p.

Real-time market data software developer Arcontech (LON: ARC) increased revenues by 4% last year and underlying pre-tax profit is one-fifth higher than expected at £1m. This is partly down to planned costs being delayed. Net cash is £7m. Investment in sales should provide longer-term growth. The share price improved 8.47% to 96p.

Cleantech Lithium (LON: CTL) has completed the first stage of production from the direct lithium extraction pilot plant. One tonne has been produced over 384 hours. Lithium recovery was 88% and the impurity rate was low. This material will be used for battery grade lithium carbonate. The share price improved 8.24% to 23p.

Oil and gas company Synergia Energy (LON: SYN) says that the Indian government has given approval for the transfer of a 50% interest in the Cambay PSC. This completes the farm-out to Selan, which will enable development of the field. The share price moved up 7.55% to 0.1425p.

FALLERS

Semiconductor designer Sondrel (LON: SND) has sent out a circular for the general meeting on 12 August to gain shareholder approval for the plan to cancel the AIM quotation. It already has the support of more than 72% of the share capital. The share price slipped a further 5.4% to 2.75p.

Chaarat Gold (LON: CGH) says that Asset Match will provide a matched bargains market for shares once they leave AIM on 16 August. There is enough cash to operate the business until then, when drawdowns on the $5m working capital facility can commence. The share price dipped a further 12.5% to 0.175p.

MindFlair (LON: MFAI) investee company Getvisibility has collaborated with Forcepoint on its newly launched a new cybersecurity product covering Generative AI services. This monitors data interactions in the AI tools. MindFlair has a 13% interest in Getvisibility and a 5.3% indirect interest. The share price has been on a strong run, and it fell back 8.93% to 1.275p. That is a significant discount to NAV.

Helium explorer Helix Exploration (LON: HEX) has started construction work on a road and drill pad for the Ingomar Dome project in Montana. A well will be drilled in the third quarter with another well planned for the Rudyard area. The combined cost is $4.1m, which is below budget. The share price dipped 5.88% to 24p, but it is still 140% ahead of the placing price in April.

Ceres Power shares surge on revenue upgrade and new manufacturing partner

Ceres Power shares jumped on Monday after the green hydrogen company upgraded its revenue guidance for the year and announced a significant global licensing agreement for its solid oxide electrolyser cell (SOEC) technology.

Ceres Power shares were 16% higher at the time of writing.

Investors would have been more than delighted to see the group upgrades its full year revenue target to £50-60 million, a significant increase on last year’s £22.6 million.

Ceres Power is establishing itself as a real leader in green hydrogen and fuel cells and in a joint statement combining a trading statement and new partnership released on Monday, announced a new agreement with a Global OEM expected to generate substantial revenues for Ceres through licence fees, engineering services, and hardware sales over multiple years.

Additionally, the company will benefit from royalty payments on future commercial production and sales of SOEC equipment by the new partner. This revenue structure mirrors previous successful OEM licensing deals, reinforcing Ceres’ business model.

Revenue growth

The company’s interim results for the first half of 2024 are set to confirm a step change in revenue growth. Revenue for the period is projected to reach £27-29 million, more than doubling the £11.7 million reported in the same period last year.

Profitability has also seen a marked improvement, with gross margins climbing to 75-80%, up from 62% in the first half of 2023.

The company’s cash position remains solid, with approximately £126 million in cash and short-term investments as of 30 June 2024. While this represents a £14 million reduction from the end of 2023, it also indicates a slower cash burn rate compared to the previous year.

“We are making great commercial progress this year, and I am particularly excited by the advances in our highly efficient and differentiated SOEC electrolyser technology, which is now being adopted by several leading global companies with the manufacturing, supply chain and balance sheet strength to bring this technology to market at scale,” said Phil Caldwell, CEO of Ceres.

“This builds on Ceres’ strategy to establish partnerships in regions with strong manufacturing capability coupled with ambitious targets for the use of hydrogen for industrial decarbonisation. By licensing our best-in-class solid oxide technology, Ceres is establishing its clean energy technology as the industry standard and, through its partner network, is building towards delivering decarbonisation at the scale and pace needed globally for the energy transition.”

Vodafone sells Vantage Towers stake in €1.3bn deal

Vodafone Group Plc has announced the sale of an additional 10% stake in Oak Holdings GmbH, the partnership controlling Vantage Towers, for €1.3 billion. This transaction completes the planned 50:50 joint ownership structure with a consortium of infrastructure investors led by Global Infrastructure Partners and KKR, as initially outlined when the co-control partnership was established.

The telecommunications giant has secured €1.3 billion from this equity stake sale, priced at €32 per share—matching the valuation of the initial transaction announced in November 2022. This latest deal brings Vodafone’s total net proceeds from its Vantage Towers divestment to a substantial €6.6 billion, significantly bolstering the company’s financial position.

Vodafone plans to utilise the proceeds for debt reduction, with the sale expected to decrease the company’s Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDAaL ratio by 0.1x.

The completion of this transaction marks another step in Vodafone’s strategy to streamline the business and focus on core operations.

Vodafone shares were little changed by the news.

Greencore Group – Will The E-Coli Outbreak Munch Into This Food Manufacturers Profits In 2024 – Q3 Update Next Week Could Allay Any Such Fears 

On Tuesday of next week, 30th July, we should be seeing the world’s biggest sandwich maker declaring its Q3 Trading Update covering the April to end-June period. 

E-Coli Outbreak 

The Statement from the Greencore Group (LON:GNC) should cover an update on the effect of the e-coli outbreak in mid-June and the actions that the group took to minimalise any mega-impact to its business. 

It was during the last two weeks of June that the group declared that it had taken the precautionary step of recalling various sandwiches, wraps and salads because of possible contamination with E.coli. 

The products called back were supplied to Aldi, Boots, ASDA, Morrisons, Amazon, the Co-op and Sainsburys. 

Greencore was not alone, because a number of other food manufacturers also recalled their own products. 

A fair guess is that the major supermarkets and leading independent retailers were also somewhat cautious with their orders to Greencore for at least the month covering and subsequent to the outbreak. 

The Business 

The Dublin-based Greencore Group supplies all of the major supermarkets in the UK, as well as convenience and travel retail outlets, discounters, coffee shops, food service and other retailers.  

It is a leading manufacturer of convenience foods, supplying a wide range of chilled, frozen and ambient foods to retail and food service customers in the UK.  

The company operates 16 world-class manufacturing sites, made up of eight sandwich units, five chilled ready meal units, three salad units, one chilled quiche unit, one ambient cooking sauce and pickles unit and Yorkshire pudding unit.  

The group also runs 17 distribution centres in the UK, with industry-leading technology and supply chain capabilities. 

Its principal customers include: Aldi, ASDA, BP, Boots, Caffe Nero, Co-op, Lidl, M&S, Poundland, Sainsburys, Shell, Tesco and Waitrose. 

The group holds very strong market positions in a range of categories including sandwiches, salads, sushi, chilled snacking, chilled ready meals, chilled soups and sauces, chilled quiche, ambient sauces and pickles, and frozen Yorkshire Puddings. 

The £796m capitalised group is no mean player within the food sector in the UK – last year it made some 779m sandwiches and other food-to-go products, as well as 132m chilled ready meals, 45m chilled soups and sauces and 245m jars of cooking sauces, pickles and condiments. 

Analyst View 

Analyst Clive Black at Shore Capital Markets is positive about the group’s prospects. 

For the current year to end September his estimates, before the e-coli scare, were for slightly lower sales at £1.81bn (£1.91bn) while expecting a better margin return to £65.0m (£55.5m) adjusted pre-tax profits, lifting earnings up to 10.2p (8.9p) with a dividend of 3.4p (nil) per share. 

For the year to end September 2025 he estimated £1.85bn revenues, £72.0m profits, 11.6p per share in earnings and a 3.9p dividend. 

Leaping forward to the 2026 year, his figures were for £1.88bn sales, £83.0m profits, earnings of 11.6p and a 4.5p dividend. 

Market opinions appear somewhat mixed – eight analysts follow the stock, with three calling it a Buy, three a Hold, one a Sell and one of no opinion – with the highest Price Objective being 200p a share, the lowest 110p, and the average being 158p. 

My View 

This company deserves a far better rating than that currently accorded to it, despite any scares. 

It has significant market shares and is a major supplier into the retail sector. 

Now trading at 177p they should be bought by medium-term growth investors, especially on any price dips. 

CleanTech Lithium produces battery-grade lithium at DLE pilot project

CleanTech Lithium has announced the completion of the first stage of production at its Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) pilot plant in Copiapó, Chile, reporting impressive recovery rates and high-grade lithium production.

The DLE pilot plant operated for 384 hours, completing 14 cycles and producing 88 cubic metres of concentrated eluate. This volume is equivalent to approximately one tonne of lithium carbonate. The DLE adsorbent achieved a lithium recovery rate of 95% from the brine, with a total recovery (including adsorption and desorption) of 88%.

Notably, the process demonstrated high impurity rejection rates, resulting in a low-impurity eluate suitable for downstream conversion. The concentrated eluate is being shipped to Conductive Energy in Chicago, USA, for conversion into battery-grade lithium carbonate.

Preliminary test work on a 200-litre sample of the eluate has yielded promising results. Multiple samples of lithium carbonate with 99.75% purity were produced, confirming the process’s efficiency and repeatability in achieving battery-grade lithium.

The news is a major boost CleanTech Lithium’s Laguna Verde project and investors who will be pleased to see the pilot project open the doors to the next stage of development in CleanTech’s Chile operations. The company plans to provide large test samples of lithium carbonate to potential offtake partners for product qualification. A reserve report for Laguna Verde is scheduled for completion in October 2024, pending the finalisation of a re-injection well in September.

“We are very pleased by these results as it shows we can produce battery-grade lithium with low impurities from our Laguna Verde brine project. Working with our partners on the downstream process, Forward Water and Conductive Energy, we can now demonstrate the entire DLE process from brine to final lithium product,” said Steve Kesler, Executive Chairman and Interim CEO, of CleanTech Lithium.

“The optimised downstream process will now be applied to the initial volume of 88m3 of concentrated eluate, or approximately 1 tonne of LCE, produced from the first stage of production from our DLE pilot plant. This will produce significant test sample volumes of battery-grade lithium carbonate for commencement of testing with potential strategic partners. This is important whilst the Chilean government is reviewing the feasibility of lithium projects to identify the most advanced companies in Chile and if they are to reach their target of having three to four new lithium projects in development by 2026.”