Lloyds earnings preview: are the good times over?

Lloyds will report next week and shed light on the UK’s evolving economy and how it’s impacted the bank’s profitability.

Net interest margins (NIM) are always in focus when the FTSE 100’s banks report. NIM is the difference between what a bank earns in interest from loans and what it pays out in interest to savers. This time round, they will be highly anticipated because many banks are expected to post much lower NIMs than in the same period last year. 

In the comparable period last year, the financial system was in the midst of a tightening cycle whereas Q1 2024 preparations for rate cuts were underway.

The comparative mortgage rates offered in the two periods were dramatically different, and this will affect Lloyds’ interest margins. Banks have also started to offer savers more competitive rates which will pile further pressure on Lloyds profits. The good times could be over.

“Lloyds is the first of the major UK banks to report first quarter earnings next week. Markets expect weaker results than this time last year, with net interest margin expected to fall from 3.22% to 2.93%,” said Matt Britzman, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“While the drop is expected, and more a result of the particularly strong environment this time last year when rates were being hiked, anything lower than 2.90% would likely be punished. There’s also the ongoing issue of an FCA investigation into motor financing to contend with. As one of the more exposed banks, Lloyds has already set aside £450mn in preparation for charges.

“It’ll be interesting to see whether management has any further commentary here, up to now details have been hard to come by. Loan defaults are the other key thing to watch, with analysts pencilling in £280mn of impairments.

“There is scope for a better result here and investors expect to hear commentary that borrowers remain resilient. Performance clearly peaked last year, but several tailwinds yet to play out could give room for upside. Of course, there are no guarantees.”

The big question for Lloyds is whether it can maintain profits as interest rates fall or if the end of higher rates will erode earnings in the coming quarters. 

Lloyds shares breached the psychological 50p mark in mid-March and have remained above this level ever since. Next week’s update has the potential to send the Lloyds share price crashing back through this level or have the bulls eyeing 60p.

All eyes on Sainsbury’s strategy as full-year results are released

Despite the cost of living crisis, Sainsbury’s has managed to successfully solidify its presence in the UK grocery market by competing with the budget discounters while retaining its premium appeal.

The Nectar card loyalty scheme keeps customers coming back while offering similar prices to Lidl and Aldi. By offering lower prices exclusively to Nectar card holders it doesn’t damage Sainsbury’s brand and enables them to keep its premium image, and charge a premium for many lines. 

This approach has also been adopted by Tesco highlighting the competitive nature of the grocery market currently.

That said, earlier this year, Sainsbury’s announced a plan to hone in on its grocery strategy. Early progress and further detail will be of much interest as full-year results when they are released on Thursday, 25th April. 

“Investors will be keen to see if there is more flesh on the bones on Sainsbury’s three-year strategy unveiled in February which is aimed at offering more food options and consistent value for shoppers. The plan was a little scant on detail, and while the direction of travel, with a doubling down on groceries, is the right way to go, a more in-depth road map would be welcomed to explain how it will be achieved,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Competition is super tough in the supermarket space, particularly for a mid-market name like Sainsbury’s with cost-of-living pressures meaning it needs to have an ever-sharper eye on offering value. Although it’s succeeded in seizing more market share, that’s put pressure on margins and investors will want to see how long this is likely to continue for.

“Retreating more from home wares and replacing shelf space with more grocery ranges is a big part of the plan, as the grocer takes advantage of customers who are willing to spend more on at home treats. The Taste the Difference range has seen encouraging increases in sales, and investors will want to see that momentum continuing.”

FTSE 100 plays catch up with US stocks on commodity strength

The FTSE 100 was playing catch up with major US indices on Thursday after another weak session over the pond was met by strength in London.

The FTSE 100 was 0.2% higher at the time of writing after the S&P 500 closed in the red for a second day.

London’s weighting towards banks and commodities – and lack of tech – meant it has underperformed the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ consistently over the past two years.

However, with interest rate concerns starting to creep back in, US stocks are feeling the pinch as commodity prices rise helping support teh FTSE 100.

“Stickier inflation and a reimagining of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate timelines, together with relatively soft earnings so far this season, means investors have struggled to get too excited across the pond,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“This of course comes after five months of very strong gains, so an element of breathing room was to be expected at some point – the question now,of course, is whether this is a pause or a more protracted reaction. The UK market, on the other hand, is being lifted by mining stocks amid higher commodity prices. Iran and Israel tensions are also slightly less heightened than they have been, which should inject some relief into trading.”

Airlines rally

easyJet and IAG were among the top risers with gains of 2.2% and 3.9%, respectively, after strong results from peer United Airlines propelled the stocks higher.

“Yesterday, US airlines enjoyed a tailwind from United Airlines beating expectations and saying business travel demand was picking up. Today, UK airlines have entered the same slipstream as EasyJet’s results get the thumbs-up and International Consolidated Airlines flies right behind.

easyJet was also higher after releasing upbeat first-half trading, revealing a sharp drop in losses.

“easyJet’s best-in-class approach to capacity planning and route discipline has allowed it to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of travel’s renaissance. The budget airline has also upped its capacity by around 8% to meet swelling demand. It’s clear the importance of travel isn’t petering out for consumers, and easyJet has grasped the nettle by backing its holidays business which has paid dividends,” said Lund-Yates.

easyJet shares rise as passenger numbers take off and losses fall in first half

Easyjet shares were on the rise on Thursday after the airline said most major performance metrics improved in the six months to March 31st.

Passenger numbers were up 8% and ticket yields increased 9%. Losses were much improved despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.

“Disruption in the Middle East has led to a £40mn direct impact for easyJet in the first half. Flying into Israel has been suspended for the summer. In true easyJet fashion, the group’s been able to flex its unexpected capacity to other areas, and has still been able to reduce losses compared to the previous year,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Airlines almost always lose money in the winter months and focus on earning profits in the summer. Managing the losses in the winter months and securing strong summer bookings is key to the business model. easyJet has done just that.

Winter losses before tax improved by more than £50m and summer bookings are ahead of last year after a strong Easter trading period.

“Narrowed first-half losses can be chalked up as a result for EasyJet – given the inherent seasonality of holidays means airlines often lose money in the winter months and make up for that over the summer,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“True, these figures were somewhat obscured by the timing of Easter but on the flipside the company also took a hit relating to the conflict in the Middle East.

“Consumers still seem to be willing to prioritise travel with the disposable income they have and by boosting capacity and rolling out its package holidays venture, EasyJet has positioned itself to take advantage of this trend.

“At what point people’s willingness and ability to spend money on a week in the sun dries up remains to be seen and this, along with pressures around the industry’s environmental impact, are the obvious clouds on an otherwise sunny horizon for EasyJet.”

easyJet shares were 2.2% higher at the time of writing.

AIM movers: Surgical Innovations plans improved efficiency and ex-dividends

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Surgical Innovations (LON: SUN) reported record revenues in 2023 and it has set out the measures that should return it to profitability. The surgical instruments supplier increased revenues from £11.3m to £12m, but it fell back into loss. There has been an 11% reduction in employees and investment in robotic equipment to improve efficiency. The second quarter order book is strong. Two distribution agreements have been extended. Singer forecasts a £300,000 loss for 2024, but it will reassess the figure at the time of the first half trading statement. The share price improved by one-quarter to 0.5p.

Legal finance provider Manolete Partners (LON: MANO) says total revenues improved from £20.8m to £26.3m. Realised revenues were lower because there was a large one-off case completion in the previous year. There was a positive contribution from unrealised revenues. This led to a return to profit in the year to March 2024. Net debt is £12.25m. The higher level of insolvencies is leading to greater demand for financing of cases. The share price improved 20.4% to 147.5p.

Optimer binders developer Aptamer Group (LON: APTA) is partnering with Kairos Biotech, which will use the Optimer+ affinity ligand platform to develop EM molecules that can be used in relation to transplant rejection and improve the chances of success. This is a fee for services project. The shareholding of S Chari increased from 3.14% to 4.39%. The share price recovered 9.52% to 0.575p.

Online content publisher LBG Media (LON: LBG) improved 2024 revenues 7.5% to £67.5m, while pre-tax profit rose 7% to £14m. Net cash is £15.8m. The problems in Australasia are being sorted out. Growth was achieved despite the weak advertising market. Zeus forecasts a 2024 pre-tax profit of £19.6m, helped by a full contribution from US business Betches. The company is up for two awards at the Small Cap Awards 2024 on 13 June. The share price increased 8.15% to 73p.

FALLERS

CEPS (LON: CEPS) has received a payment of £345,000 relating to the winding up of the Dinkie Heel pension fund. The total surplus after tax was £403,000, but there will be fees to be taken from this before the residual amount is paid. The share price fell 12.5% to 17.5p.

Fire protection products developer Zenova Group (LON: ZED) has appointed Peterhouse as broker and switched auditor from PKF to Gravitas Audit. The share price dipped 9.09% to 1.5p.

Chief executive Lisa Anson continues to buy shares in Redx Pharma (LON: REDX), which will soon be leaving AIM. She acquired a further 189,500 shares at an average price of 10.01p each. She owns 751,683 shares. The share price still declined 11.1% to 12p.

Investment company Gunsynd (LON: GUN) reported a slump in NAV from £3.28m to £1.74m in the year to January 2024. The focus is resource companies and the share prices have performed poorly. There was cash of £113,000 at the end of January but there have been share sales since then. The share price dipped 7.41% to 0.125p.

Ex-dividends

Airea (LON: AIEA) is paying a final dividend of 0.55p/share and the share price is unchanged at 33.5p.

Arbuthnot Banking (LON: ARBB) is paying a final dividend of 27p/share and the share price is 25p lower at £10.75.

Hvivo (LON: HVO) is paying a final dividend of 0.2p/share and the share price is unchanged at 27.6p.

Uniphar (LON: UPR) is paying a final dividend of 1.19 cents/share and the share price and the share price is unchanged at 224p.

M Winkworth (LON: WINK) is paying a dividend of 3p/share and the share price is unchanged at 175p.

Is Centamin a buy after a disappointing Q1 update?

There is a big disconnect between the Centamin share price and the underlying price of gold, which widened on Thursday after the Egypt-focused miner released a soggy Q1 update.

Total gold production for the period fell 1% to 104,821oz, while the grade of open pit mining output dropped 28%.

“Gold miner Centamin has this morning reported gold production volumes and sales were down in the first quarter of 2024 versus Q1 23, however they fully expect production to increase into the year and have reaffirmed 2024 production and cost guidance,” said Mark Crouch, analyst at investment platform eToro.

The blip in Q1 may provide a buying opportunity for gold bugs seeking to gain exposure to the Sukari mine, Egypt’s first large-scale modern gold mine in the Arabian Nubian Shield.

“2024 has seen something of a gold rush, with the metal hitting multiple new all-time highs. Since January, Centamin’s share price has outpaced the price of gold, rising almost 25%, reaching a three-year high, compared with gold’s gains of 15%,” Crouch said.

“Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Ukraine has almost certainly contributed to gold’s rise, but doubts remain over central banks’ ability to gain a handle on inflation, with CPI in the US rising for the third month in a row in March, casting doubts over rate cuts that were all but a given just a few weeks ago.

“With analysts at CITI this week projecting $3000 gold within the next 18 months, Centamin and their investors look set for a profitable year ahead.”

While Centamin is first and foremost a play on the gold price and continued production at their Egyptian asset, there is the potential upside of an exploration campaign in close proximity to the Sukari mine and developments in Cote d’Ivoire.

Micah Richards appointed as brand ambassador for Tekcapital’s Innovative Eyewear

Tekcapital portfolio company Innovative Eyewear has announced a material expansion of its global marketing campaign with the appointment of Micah Richards as a brand ambassador for the Lucyd smart eyewear range.

Tekcapital investors will be encouraged by Innovative Eyewears clear intention to grow the Lucyd brand with high-profile personalities as the smart eyewear specialist builds momentum in 2024.

Micah Richards is a former England International and Manchester City footballer who successfully transitioned to a leading pundit appearing on Sky Sports, CBS Sports and BBC Sport. He is also a co-host of “The Rest is Football”, the top ten UK podcast.

“These days, when people are spending more time than ever in front of their phones, TVs and computers, active lifestyle products like Lucyd eyewear are critically important,” Micah Richards said.

“I am excited to partner with Innovative Eyewear to advance a new generation of smart glasses that enhance almost any physical activity with seamless open-ear audio and ChatGPT, all while protecting and correcting your vision.”

The appointment comes as Innovative Eyewear sales rise after launching new ranges and bolstering marketing initiatives as the global adoption of smart eyewear grows. 

In Q4 2023, the company generated more revenue than in the preceding three months and efforts such as today’s announcement promise additional growth in the future.

Nautica powered by Lucyd smart eyewear was launched at the beginning of 2024 and its penetration will be evident in upcoming earnings releases.Reebok and Eddie Bauer smart eywear is due to be launched this year.

The appointment of Micah Richards follows yesterday’s announcement Innovative Eyewear is ramping up retail distribution across the US through a partnership with Windsor Eyes.

Innoavtive Eyewears next earning release will be highly anticipated.

Severfield beats expectations and launches share buy back

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Mark Watson-Mitchell was right to highlight the dealing levels in structural steel supplier Severfield (LON: SFR) shares (Severfield – take note of yesterday’s substantial trading in this steelwork group’s shares  – UK Investor Magazine). The subsequent trading statement was better than expected. The share price jumped 19.3% to 64.4p on the back of this news.

Liberum has increased its pre-tax profit estimate for the year just ended from £34.3m to £35.8m. That is down to better margins in the commercial and industrial division. The expected dividend has been raised from 3.6p/share to 3.9p/share. Severfield is gaining market share.

Steel and energy prices have fallen back in the past year and 80% of energy costs are fixed for 2024-25. The UK and Europe order book has risen by 6%, but the Indian order book has declined by 15%. There is strong demand for battery plants, nuclear and data centres.  

The pre-tax profit forecast for the year to March 2025, has been trimmed from £37m to £36.6m because of a higher interest charge. That is even after lower than expected net debt of £10.2m at the end of March 2024, while the net debt forecast for March 2025 has been cut from £19.1m to £14.4m.

The rise in net debt is down to the plan to spend £10m on share buy backs, which will help to enhance earnings. The 2024-25 earnings forecast has been raised from 9.1p/share to 9.6p/share. However, Liberum has estimated the shares will be acquired at an average of 55p each. The share price rise means that the earnings may not be quite as high as forecast. The shares are trading on less than seven times prospective 2024-25 earnings and the forecast yield is 6.4%.  

FTSE 100 gains as Middle East tensions subside, miners lead the way

The FTSE 100 was materially higher on Wednesday as Middle East tensions subsided and miners stormed higher and took the index with them.

The mining sector’s strength helped the FTSE 100 0.56% higher at the time of writing.

The move higher in miners today is a delayed response to the better-than-expected Chinese GDP released earlier in the week, which was overshadowed by Middle East tensions.

The top five risers were all miners at the time of writing with Anglo American jumping 3.6% closely followed by Rio Tinto adding 2.9%. Rio Tinto gained despite announcing lower quarterly iron ore shipments and production.

Although the miners were doing most of the FTSE 100’s heavy lifting on Wednesday, the big domestic story was UK inflation falling to 3.2%, and there was evidence of optimism in UK-focused stocks on Wednesday.

“Inflation is moving in the right direction and anyone who has wheeled a trolly around a supermarket over the past few weeks will have noticed that prices aren’t delivering those checkout shocks in the same way they were this time last year,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.

“Next month should look even better as the falling energy price cap is finally counted in the numbers, even if many households won’t have noticed much difference to their outgoings as their direct debits remain elevated to pay off outstanding balances.

“But even in this set of figures there are a few troubling issues, notably the stickiness of service sector inflation. This could be exacerbated by the increase in the National Living Wage which is putting pressure on many businesses to hike prices again to balance their books.”

Despite nagging concerns about service inflation, FTSE 100 consumer-facing stocks were higher, with JD Sports up 2%, easyJet gaining 1.9%, and Frasers Group adding 1.6%.

However, gains were kept in check by the fact that inflation was higher than expected, which is likely to do little to encourage the Bank of England to cut rates sooner.

“While inflation is certainly moving in the right direction, it’s still higher than the market expected, which will disappoint those expecting an earlier-than-forecast interest rate cut from the Bank of England,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

AIM movers: Bradda Head Lithium drilling progresses and Surface Transforms worst case scenario

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Sustainable household goods ingredients supplier Itaconix (LON: ITX) has reversed its recent decline following Monday’s 2023 results announcement. Management had already warned that 2024 revenues would be lower because it was focusing on improving margins. The 2023 figures were in line with expectations. The large cash pile enables Itaconix to be stricter about the margins of the business it does with merchants and other customers. The share price recovered 16.1% to 155p.

Bradda Head Lithium (LON: BHL) says results on the first four holes drilled on the Basin project in Arizona. This targets an increase in resource from 1.08mt to 2.5mt, which will trigger a $3m payment from Lithium Royalty Company. The rest of the drilling should be completed in early May, and this will be followed by an updated resource estimate in June. The share price improved 9.68% to 1.7p.

Serabi Gold (LON: SRB) produced 9,000 ounces of gold in the first quarter, which is the highest level since the third quarter of 2021, and grades should recover at Palito later this year. The Coringa project is progressing and could produce more than 11,000 ounces of gold this year. Total gold production could be near to 40,000 ounces this year. There was $11.1m in cash at the end of March 2024. The share price increased 8.55% to 63.5p.

Sales and lettings agency M Winkworth (LON: WINK) reported flat revenues and a dip in pre-tax profit from £2.5m to £2.1m. The London-based company continues to grow the dividend at a steady rate, and it is 11.7p/share for 2023. A recovery in pre-tax profit to £2.4m is anticipated this year. The shares rose 7.69% to 175p, which means that the forecast yield is 7% and the prospective multiple 12.

Eyewear supplier Inspecs (LON: SPEC) recovered from a £7.7m loss in 2022 to a £200,000 pre-tax profit in 2023 on revenues 1% ahead at £203.3m. Net debt is £3.4m lower at £24.2m. There was a slow start to 2024, but there are signs of improvement. The share price is 7.45% higher at 50.5p.

FALLERS

The board of Scirocco Energy (LON: SCIR) is proposing that the company should leave AIM. This is part of the process of a planned members’ voluntary liquidation, and it should save £100,000. The shareholder meeting is on 7 May. A matched bargain facility will be arranged. Distributions totalling 1.1p-1.2p/share between 2024 and 2027. The share price declined 14.6% to 0.235p.

Carbon fibre brake technology developer Surface Transforms (LON: SCE) has set out worst case scenarios for this year. Sales are expected to grow by at least 111% and possibly up to 165%. This will depend on the company’s ability to produce and deliver to customers. Scrap is being reduced. Zeus has withdrawn its forecasts until it talks to the company. It had forecast a 177% increase in revenues to £23m. The share price continues to fall to new lows, and it is down 16.7% to 3.25p.

Katoro Gold (LON: KAT) is taking action against Lake Victoria Gold, which is due to pay €792,000 for the joint venture transaction entered into in March 2022. The liability is disputed. The company is undertaking a technical review of the Haneti project and may focus on the potential nickel and copper. Potential acquisitions of development projects have been identified. The selection of a new chief executive is well advance, but there may be additional board restructuring. The share price dipped 13.9% to 0.0775p.

Mobile logistics technology provider Touchstar (LON: TST) shares have fallen today despite WH Ireland increasing its earnings and dividend forecasts for 2024 and 2025. In 2023, revenues were 7% ahead at £7.2m and despite lower gross margins, pre-tax profit was 60% higher at £680,000. Net cash was £3m at the end of 2023 and that enabled a total dividend of 2.5p/share – there was no dividend last year – covered three times by earnings. At 87.5p, down 7.89%, the shares are on a prospective multiple of less than nine.