When will the Bank of England cut interest rates?

The timing of the Bank of England’s first move to reduce borrowing costs after a two-year hiking cycle is approaching.

After 14 rate hikes taking interest rates from 0.1% to 5.25%, the next move will almost certainly be a cut. Another hike would wreak havoc on UK financial assets.

The BoE has repeatedly said it will react to economic data. Many would argue recent data warrants lower interest rates.

Inflation has fallen but not yet hit the BoE’s 2% target. Indeed, the UK’s latest CPI reading of 4% is still substantially greater than where the Bank of England would like to see it.

However, ensuring inflation hits 2% is not a precursor to rate cuts. The Bank of England’s rate-setting panel, the MPC, will be aware that the OBR sees inflation falling to 2% in the coming months, echoing the BoEs’ forecasts. 

The Bank of England has held off cutting rates to reduce the risk of inflation heating up again. This now looks unlikely. The significant risk for the BoE and the UK economy is that it is too late to start easing.

Growth is slowing, and the UK recession has done much of the heavy lifting for the Bank of England regarding reducing prices. If a disinflation cycle starts to build, the Bank of England could well find inflation languishing below the target rate.

Although the UK grew 0.2% in January, its economic data is starting to show signs of weakness. We all know the UK entered a recession in Q4 and is walking down a well-trodden path.

The UK entered a recession due to lower consumer spending, which is usually the first domino to fall. Next is jobs, and then loan defaults rise. We are already seeing signs of a slowdown in the UK jobs market after the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and vaccines fell in early 2024.

If the BoE isn’t careful, the recession could well be a lot deeper than the shallow recession everyone is predicting. January’s GDP growth will encourage many, but we need to see more positive data points to establish robust growth.

“While this seems positive, GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in the three months to January in line with our forecast last month. In broader terms, UK economic growth has been near-zero since 2022 and GDP per head remains lower than pre-Covid,” said Paula Bejarano Carbo, NIESR Economist.

The Bank of England has to move fast and will likely cut rates by June.

After January’s GDP was released, Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said, “These figures are unlikely to be a game changer for Bank of England policymakers, with a June date now largely the earliest expected for an interest rate cut.”

Bond yields are pricing a cut. Equity markets are pricing a cut. Interest rate futures are pricing a cut. This will force the BoE’s hand before long.

Balfour Beatty jumps as stronger construction activity drives revenue growth, dividend hiked

Balfour Beatty shares were higher on Wednesday after the construction services group released 2023’s full-year results revealing a year of progress in terms of profits and revenue.

Revenue grew 7% to £9.6bn and underlying profit from operations (PFO) rose 2% to £236m. Profit before tax fell due to the impact of disposals.

Balfour Beatty shares were up 9% to 360p at the time of writing.

“Balfour Beatty has built a sturdy reputation with investors in recent years. The international infrastructure firm has consistently produced growing profits and delivered attractive shareholder returns. This morning’s earnings update will further cement that reputation,” said Mark Crouch, analyst at investment platform eToro.

“The business reported a jump in revenue and profits for 2023. Despite a marginal dip in the order book, they expect growth to continue into 2025. More welcome news for shareholders was the increase of the dividend and share buyback program, with the latter being raised to £100m, set to complete by December 2024. All are very good signs.”

Balfour Beatty’s outlook was particularly encouraging. The company said, ‘The Board expects an increase in PFO from its earnings-based businesses in 2024, with growth accelerating in 2025.’ The group sees investment in infrastructure projects supporting earnings in the coming periods as well as positive contributions from disposals.

Shareholders will enjoy a 10% increase in the final dividend to 11.5p.

UK economy returns to growth in January as constrcution and retail bounce back

The UK economy shook off the recessionary environment in January and returned to growth as consumer spending rose and construction activity boosted growth.

UK GDP grew 0.2% in January after falling 0.1% in December.

“The UK economy snapped back to growth in January, adding fuel to the fire of speculation that the recession will indeed be super-short and ultra-mild,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The latest snapshot showed that GDP was estimated to have come in at 0.2%, and while the economy is hardly shooting the lights out in terms of growth, there will be relief that light has emerged at the end of a difficult tunnel for many companies.”

The sectors associated with sogginess last year were the ones at the forefront of growth this year. A well documented slow down in the UK property market showed signs of reversal and consumer spending perked up after a poor December.

“It’s noteworthy that sectors like construction, retail, and wholesale have contributed to this growth, showing pockets of resilience within the economy,” said Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer at Moneyfarm.

However, before everyone gets overly excited about progress in the economy, Paula Bejarano Carbo, Economist at National Institute of Economic and Social Research highlighted the average growth over the three months to the end of January was still negative and suggested much more was needed for sustained growth in the UK economy.

“While this seems positive, GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in the three months to January in line with our forecast last month,” explained Paula Bejarano Carbo.

“In broader terms, UK economic growth has been near-zero since 2022 and GDP per head remains lower than pre-Covid. To escape the low-growth trap, structural changes are needed, such as an increase in public investment, particularly in infrastructure, education and health – which would also support growth in business investment.”

FTSE 100 extends gains after US CPI comes in hotter than expected, financials gain

The FTSE 100 made healthy gains on Tuesday despite US CPI inflation coming in hotter than expected as financial helped propel London’s leading index to the best intraday levels since January.

The FTSE 100 touched highs of 7,764 on Tuesday, a similar level the index had retreated from on several occasions in January. Should the index break above this level, it will attack levels not seen since April 2023.

“The blue-chip UK index was led by a rally in financials including a 3.1% gain from Prudential and a 2% rise from Standard Chartered. Interestingly, nearly all sectors were in positive territory, implying that investors were feeling upbeat across the board which is a healthy situation to have in markets,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Investor sentiment was boosted by slowing UK wage growth which raises the chances of the Bank of England cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.”

The UK unemployment rate has increased to 3.9%, and wage growth slowed to 6.1%. Job vacancies also fell as the recession cooled the UK jobs market. While this isn’t great news for the underlying economy, it is excellent news for traders longing for easier monetary policy.

The FTSE 100 was 1% higher at the time of writing.

US CPI

It was a different story in the US. CPI inflation came in hotter than expected – but not to the extent that it would prevent the Federal Reserve from rates in the summer, and this buoyed equity bulls.

US equities jumped on the open as US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.2% in the year to February.

“The recent data series came in slightly above expectations, particularly regarding core inflation. While this doesn’t derail the progress the Fed is making, it highlights the challenge of addressing inflation and getting it back to the 2% target,” said Ryan Brandham, Head of Global Capital Markets, North America at Validus Risk Management.

“US yields have been gradually declining throughout March, but this data might cause them to increase in the coming days as traders debate what it means for potential cuts in the US later this year.”

The merry-go-round of ‘will they, won’t they’ expectations of when the Federal Reserve will cut rates will continue, but, for today at least, the data suggests rate cuts are very much on the table for June/July.

Persimmon

Persimmon was the FTSE 100’s biggest faller, with a 2.2% loss, after the housebuilder said completions would increase only marginally in 2024 compared to 2023. Revenue sank 28%, and operating profits more than halved in 2023.

“Persimmon’s latest set of results will make for tough reading for shareholders after the UK housebuilder reported a 52% drop in profits in 2023, citing build cost inflation and weaker demand hampering performance. Also, the company’s cash position, while still relatively healthy, has fallen considerably,” said Adam Vettese, analyst at investment platform eToro.

“Persimmon shares looked to be mounting a recovery in the last six months, rallying over 40%, and after what has been a torrid few years for the housebuilder, investors would have been eager to see this continue at pace. However, as these results indicate, so much depends on factors outside of Persimmon’s control.”

H&T set to continue growth trajectory

0

AIM-quoted pawnbroker H&T (LON: HAT) reported strong growth in profit and further progress is expected this year despite higher wage costs. The pledge book is growing and the acquisition of Marcroft boosts parts of the business with potential for growth.

The AIM-quoted company is benefitting from increasing pawnbroking demand and higher gold prices. The retail side has been tougher, but this is being refocused on lower price points that are more in keeping with customer demand. Pre-owned jewellery margins remain high, but new jewellery margins slumped.

The pawnbroking book grew 28% to £128.9m. Group 2023 revenues were 27% ahead at £220.8m. Retail and other services were the only parts of the business making a lower profit contribution. Pre-tax profit was up from £19m to £26.4m. This enabled a rise in the dividend from 15p/share to 17p/share.

The recent Maxcroft acquisition increases exposure to self-employed and small business pawnbroking loans. The security is the same as for individuals. It also boosts the foreign currency business.

The new £85m debt facility means that H&T has all the cash it requires to expand the business, even after the £11.3m paid for Marcroft. A further 50 stores will be refreshed this year and up to 12 new branches could be opened.

The share price is 10.9% higher at 377p, which means that some of the downgrade-related losses from earlier in the year have been clawed back. The prospective multiple is seven and the forecast yield is 5.3%.

Synthomer optimistic despite higher loss

0

Despite a much lower profit in 2023, the note of optimism in the trading statement helped Synthomer (LON: SYNT) to become the highest riser today. Shares in the specialised polymers and ingredients supplier have risen by more than one-third to 192.9p.

In 2023, continuing revenues dipped by 15.5% to £1.97bn, while profit fell more rapidly, particularly in the adhesive solutions and health and performance materials divisions. Coatings and construction held up better. Corporate overheads were slightly lower. This led to a slump in underlying operating profit of more than three-fifths to £37.7m, but that was not enough to cover interest charges. There was a bigger pre-tax loss if discontinued activities are included.

Trading was hit by destocking. There were problems with the supply chain for adhesive solutions, but this is improving. Second half margins were better in all the divisions.

The number of sites in the group was reduced from 43 to 36 and there is likely to be further rationalisation. That contributed to the £18m of annualised cost savings. There could be a further £40m of savings to come over the next two years.

A positive is that net debt was halved to £499.7m, helped by the £276m rights issue at 197p/share in October. There was also a 20-for-one share consolidation. There are further divestments to be made.

The share price drifted down after the share consolidation, but it is slightly higher than at the beginning of the year and is still below the rights issue price.  

Trading has improved this year with some restocking. Whether this will last is uncertain. There will be benefits from cost savings, although this will be offset by higher wages. Importantly, there should be free cash flow this year.

Analysts were expecting a £21m pre-tax profit in 2024, before trebling to £63m in 2025. Even if that is not upgraded it means that the shares are trading on 24 times prospective 2024 earnings, falling to just over six in 2025.  

AIM movers: SmartSpace rises ahead of bid news and Renalytix funding

0

There is no new information about the potential bid for SmartSpace Software (LON: SMRT) but the share price has jumped 27.1% to 75p. The share price has been drifting downwards since the initial announcement that the company had received a bid approach from Sign In Solutions Inc at an offer price of 90p/share. Management says that it would back this offer, which values SmartSpace Software at £26m. This bid is subject to due diligence. Late last year, venue management software supplier Skedda Inc proposed an 82p/share offer for the smart building technology company, but last month it decided not to bid.

X-ray imaging technology developer Image Scan (LON: IGE) has launched the AXIS-CI cabinet with AI software, which is for building and mail screening. This helped the shares recover 21.7% to 1.4p.

Primorus Investments (LON: PRIM) is paying a special dividend of 1.5p/share, which will cost £2.1m. The ex-dividend date is 21 March. Primorus Investments received $6.1m from the takeover of Payapps Ltd. The share price rose 15.8% to 5.5p.

Dekel Agri-Vision (LON: DKL) director Lincoln Moore bought 500,000 shares at 1.3p each following yesterday’s production update. February 2024 crude palm oil production of 3,742 tonnes was 70% higher than the previous February. The share price is 15.4% higher at 1.5p.

FALLERS

Renalytix (LON: RENX) has raised £7.8m at 20p/share and this should be enough to fund the company until the fourth quarter of 2024. This will give time for the formal sale process to make progress. A large diagnostics company has made a bid approach to kidney disease diagnostics developer Renalytix. This sparked the formal sale process, so that the company can assess whether there are other potential bidders. It is also possible that there could be a decision to stay independent. The share price slumped 31.3% to 27.5p, which is below the level before the potential bid was revealed.

Digital media services provider Catenai (LON: CTAI) raised £720,000 at 0.3p/share and issued shares to pay creditors £76,600. Sanderson Capital has converted £151,000 of convertible loan notes and £65,100 of associated fees into 72 million shares and it has received 25.17 million warrants exercisable at 0.3p each.  The share price fell back 30% to 0.35p.

The Competition and Markets Authority’s announcement that it has concerns about the pet market knocked CVS Group (LON: CVSG) shares. Concerns include, lack of information, weak competition in certain areas and actions by large groups like vet practices operator CVS Group.  A package of possible remedies has been suggested by CVS Group and its peers and they believe these could be implemented more quickly than an 18-month investigation. The share price has recovered from its low, but it is still down 23.9% to 1108.5p.

Shoe Zone (LON: SHOE) has a history of beating forecasts in recent years, but at the AGM the retailer said that trading is marginally below expectations because of higher wage and freight costs. Also, the end of the autumn/winter season was slower than anticipated. The share price declined 17% to 232.5p.

Why Vietnam Holding has further to run

Vietnam Holding has had an exemplary start to 2024. The trust’s share price is up 12%, and the discount has narrowed to 6.5%.

UK Investor Magazine included Vietnam Holding in its ‘Top 15 Stock Picks for 2024’. Year-to-date, it has been one of the best performers.

Despite the sterling start to the year and sector-beating discount, Vietnam Holding has every possibility of continuing its ascent. Here’s why.

Vietnam’s growth is accelerating

After recording 5.1% growth in 2023, economist estimates for Vietnam’s growth in 2024 generally lie in the 6%-6.5% range. HSBC is forecasting 6% growth for the Vietnamese economy in 2024.

Increased exports, stronger manufacturing, and a boost from tourism are expected to drive accelerating growth. Domestic demand is expected to remain robust, and the Vietnamese economy’s digitalisation will underscore economic efficiencies. Retail sales grew 9.3% year-on-year in December.

Vietnam’s trade surplus reached a record $28 billion in December last year, which was helped by increasing electronics exports. Foxxcon invested $259m into two new plants last year, one of which will produce components for electric vehicles. As Vietnam’s manufacturing sector expands, the trickle-down effect to the consumer and broader economy will feed into Vietnam Holding’s portfolio.

Discount 

Vietnam Holding and its manager, Dynam Capital, are intent on reducing and maintaining a low discount. Although this trust’s share price is trading at a 6.1% discount to NAV – a far superior discount to its peers, such is the commitment to a low discount, the VNH team will feel there is still work to do. Vietnam Holding’s peers trade at around a 20% discount and have been stuck with a wide discount for an extended period.

The trust introduced an innovative annual redemption facility last year, allowing investors to redeem shares at fair market value annually. The first redemption is slated for September 2024.

Efforts to achieve a low discount underpin the fundamentals supporting VHN’s Vietnamese growth companies.

Vietnam is not yet an emerging market

Vietnam is often referred to as an emerging market—which it is in many respects but not in the eyes of the organisation that sets equity index categorisations and, therefore, the flows of capital in any given jurisdiction’s equities.

Vietnam is still classified as a frontier market. Indeed, it accounts for around 28% of the MSCI Frontier Markets index. However, this may change in the future as Vietnam satisfies the criteria as an emerging market.

When Vietnam achieves the official EM classification, large emerging market money managers who are prevented from allocating capital to Vietnam as a frontier market will likely rush to buy up the country’s equities and Vietnam Holding’s long-standing portfolio companies.

Persimmon shares slip as revenue and profits collapse; improvements seen in 2024

Persimmon shares fell on Tuesday after the housebuilder announced a full year and operating profit sank in 2023.

Rising mortgage rates were largely to blame for a 27.5% drop in revenue. Operating profit fell to £355m from £1bn.

Persimmon’s numbers today were broadly expected and the focus was always going to be on the outlook. On this front, Persimmon expects to have a marginally better 2024 than 2023, with completions expected to be between 10,000 and 10,500 in 2024 compared to 9,922 in 2023.

The group said it expects the housing market to remain subdued, citing uncertainties around the UK election and mortgage rates.

“Although the near-term outlook for Persimmon remains uncertain, the significant pent-up demand for homes remains unchanged. Persimmon’s average weekly sales rates fell around 16% in 2023, as high interest rates and the removal of the Help-to-Buy scheme have weighed on buyer affordability,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“As a result, total completions of new homes dropped by around a third to 9,922. These lower volumes, coupled with high levels of build-cost inflation, saw operating profit margins roughly halve. This impact would have been worse if it weren’t for the group’s in-house materials business, which is a key differentiator to peers and offers some relief to inflating costs.”

Persimmon’s net cash took a battering last year, dropping to £420.1m from £1,246m as operating cash flows dried up and Persimmon paid £255m in dividends.

The sharp drop in net cash will raise some eyebrows. Persimmon has been a cash generation juggernaut over the past decade and the halving of net cash demonstrates the challenging time the housebuilder had in 2023.

The reduction of cash will not impact the company’s ability to harness opportunities when growth returns – unless the UK property malaise lasts longer than many expect.

“With interest rates still up at around 5%, this has created something of a standoff between buyers and sellers in 2023, with neither willing to give any ground. The Spring Budget offered little to no incentive for either side, so the focus will now be firmly fixed on the Bank of England and the prospect of impending interest rate cuts later this year,” said Adam Vettese, analyst at investment platform eToro.

Tip update: Nanoco finalises cash return details

Cadmium-free quantum dots developer Nanoco (LON: NANO) has announced the detailed plans for the return of cash to shareholders. The amount returned will be £30m with a further £3m being used for share buy backs.
That is at the bottom of the suggested range of between £33m and £40m. This follows consultation with some of the larger shareholders. It makes sense not to return too much cash and then pay a broker a commission to raise more in the future.
The £30m will be returned via a tender offer at 24p/share. The full £30m will acquire 38.5% of the share capital. The buy back could purchase a fu...