Bunzl shares rise on profit upgrade

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Bunzl, a world leader in distribution services, said underlying operating profit is expected to exceed prior estimates in the full year 2023.

The company had earlier indicated that its profit would experience a “moderate increase” compared to 2022, when taking into account constant exchange rates.

Bunzl shares were up 2.20% at the time of writing on Thursday.

Bunzl’s update further explains that, when taking into account the divestiture of the UK healthcare business, the overall Group revenue in 2023 is expected to show a decrease of 1 to 2% compared to 2022, considering constant exchange rates and currency fluctuations having minimal influence throughout the year.

“Bunzl delivers an early Christmas present for investors with a small upgrade to margin guidance. Revenue weakness was expected as COVID-related sales continued to normalise and tailwinds from higher inflation faded away,” said Matt Britzman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

The end-of-year update further explains that the company’s revenue in 2023 is projected to be broadly in line with 2022, considering constant exchange rates and excluding the impact of the divestiture of the UK healthcare business.

Within this, the anticipated growth in revenue from acquisitions is expected to balance out the anticipated decline in underlying revenue.

Bunzl’s CEO, Frank van Zanten, said on Thursday, “We welcome three new complementary businesses to the group today, taking the total acquisitions announced this year to 17. Over the last four years, we have committed a cumulative circa £1.7bn to acquisitions, reflecting a step-up in our spend and with our pipeline remaining active and supported by our strong balance sheet.”

Looking into the future, Matt Britzman said that “higher-margin acquisitions, along with some organic improvements, are doing their job to prop up the bottom line. As we move into 2024, comparable periods should ease on the top line, reflected in guidance for some revenue growth next year, which is likely ahead of most analysts’ forecasts”.

“Bunzl has a resilient product range and a highly cash-generative model. The key thing to watch is how organic growth plays out from here. Prolonged weakness in this area puts added pressure on acquisitions to do the hard  work”, Britzman added.

Consider Haatch EIS and SEIS funds for exciting UK SaaS companies in 2024

Haatch has a clear aim for the businesses they invest in: help B2B SaaS companies hit their first £1 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR).

Haatch EIS and SEIS funds invest in exciting early-stage UK B2B SaaS companies with a clear opportunity to increase revenues, achieve high profit levels, and create shareholder value.

The Haatch team have established their SEIS and EIS funds as pre-seed and seed-stage investment vehicles seeking out B2B SaaS companies they feel have the potential to scale quickly at a relatively low cost.

High margins and long-term relationships

Core to Haatch’s investment thesis is that once a software service is launched by a B2B SaaS company and they win their first customers, the incremental cost attributed to adding further customers is minimal and high margins can be achieved as the business grows.

To secure the returns required by their investors, Haatch has stringent criteria for assessing the growth potential of individual SaaS companies. This focuses on the ‘pain’ points their potential portfolio companies will fix for their customers.

Visit the Haatch website for further information

Identifying the ‘pain’ for their customers and providing them with a solution increases the chance of long-term profitable relationships as the software services are embedded into the companies’ operations.

The investment team at Haatch has reviewed over 2,000 pitches from companies that believe they fit these criteria and invested in only a fraction of them.

Haatch has set out ‘3 truths’ that drive clear investment strategy:

  • Operators with experience taking companies from 0-to-1 and experienced entrepreneurs are the most valuable support to founders of early-stage companies.
  • Sales and product are the most critical levers and the hardest to get right before a business can scale.
  • Pain is the biggest driver of a purchasing decision for a buyer and creates long-lasting lifetime value.

This strategy has provided investors with returns of as much as 276x in the case of Elevaate when it was acquired by Quotient Technology Inc. (NYSE:QUOT).

Elevaate, founded by Scott Weavers-Wright OBE, boosts online monetisation programmes by enhancing relationships between suppliers and retailers. Elevaate’s technology platform powers global supplier sponsorship programmes for Morrisons, Iceland and Office Depot.

Portfolio value growth

The value of Haatch’s first EIS fund has increased 320% based on recent funding rounds.

This has been achieved by portfolio companies gaining substantial traction and securing subsequent funding to pursue further growth. Haatch does invest in follow-on rounds up to seed stage.

An example is Aerocloud, a SaaS provider of cloud infrastructure for airport operations, which provided Haatch investors with a 6x uplift on their valuation after it secured series A funding.

While investors will focus on Haatch’s investment returns, their funds have generated deep value for the UK economy in the form of 2,000 jobs created by their portfolio companies.

Haatch’s team has substantial experience in scaling businesses and securing exits for investors in a variety of industries.

Fred Soneya, Co-Founder and Partner at Haatch, summarises the Haatch team’s investing experience and how this enables them to select companies with material growth potential:

“I’m delighted to launch the next iteration of our EIS fund. It draws on the learnings of investing in 70+ companies over the past four years via Haatch funds and the previous 10 years as angels to more accurately define our narrative on what makes companies successful and how we strategically support them on that journey.”

Their SEIS and EIS funds target a 10x return on the initial investment, although exits have returned less than this and, as we discussed in the case of Elevaate, much more.

Of the 70+ companies Haatch has invested in, 3 have achieved exits. The total value of their portfolio is £800m.

As with all early-stage companies, while Haatch has achieved substantial returns for their investors from a selection of companies, not all portfolio companies will do this, and some may fail.

Visit the Haatch website for further information

AIM movers: Good Black Friday for musicMagpie and ex-dividends

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Refurbished technology supplier musicMagpie (LON: MMAG) had a record Black Friday period, offsetting some of the weakness earlier in the year. Full year revenues have fallen from £143.3m to £136.6m, although gross margin improved. EBITDA improved by £1m to £7.5m. Net debt was £13.1m at the end of November. The share price recovered 19.6% to 13.75p.

Pantheon Resources (LON: PANR) has been awarded 66,000 acres of new licences on the Alaska North Slope to add to the existing acreage of 193,000 acres. The additional acres should give the company the remaining reservoir potential of the Kodiak field. The share price is 9.91% ahead at 19.125p.

Dispute resolution services provider Driver Group (LON: DRV) moved back into profit in the year to September 2023, mainly due to higher gross margins. The £1.1m pre-tax profit was still lower than the £2m reported for 2020-21. The cost base has been reduced and additional projects have been won. Net cash is £5.8m. The final dividend is 0.75p/share and management says that there is around £1m of surplus capital that can be used for share buy backs. The core businesses will be rebranded Diales and there are plans to move into other sectors, such as aerospace and IT. The share price is 9.8% higher at 28p.

Kazera Global (LON: KZG) says African Mineral Sands has completed the acquisition of 250 million shares at 1.5p each, which was 183% ahead of the market price on 12 December. That takes its stake to 26.7%. The share price rose 4.76% to 0.55p.

FALLERS

Beacon Energy (LON: BCE) is continuing to clean up the Schwarzbach-2 well in onshore Germany.  A sand jetting operation is planned for January in order to build up to full production. Current production is 40 barrels/day. The share price is 17.1% lower at 0.085p.

Red Rock Resources (LON: RRR) raised £500,000 at 0.075p/share. This will be invested in lithium production and export operations in Zimbabwe, gold studies in Burkina Faso and working capital. The release of capital from the DRC is likely to be delayed until after next week’s election. The share price slumped 19.5% to 0.0825p.

Yesterday evening, ValiRx (LON: VAL) announced a placing to raise £1.6m at 6p/share and retail offer of up to £250,000. Directors are subscribing for another £30,000 worth of shares. The share price fell 16.1% to 6.5p. The cash will fund the exploitation and integration of the BioBank materials and commercial development within Inaphaea, plus development work.

Mixed signal ASICS developer EnSilica (LON: ENSI) is raising £1.56m at 40p/share and subscribers also receive one warrant exercisable at 55p for each share. The share price declined 16.1% to 39p. The cash will support tender activity and the carrying out of new orders. There is up to $360m of potential work.

Ex-dividends

DSW Capital (LON: DSW) is paying an interim dividend of 1.25p/share and the share price is unchanged at 51p.

Impellam Group (LON: IPEL) is paying an interim dividend of 55.9p/share and the share price rose 35p to 925p, better reflecting the value of yesterday’s bid.

Northamber (LON: NAR) is paying a final dividend of 0.3p/share and the share price is unchanged at 44.5p.

Oxford Metrics (LON: OMG) is paying a final dividend of 2.75p/share and the share price is 1p lower at 100p.

Polar Capital (LON: POLR) is paying an interim dividend of 14p/share and the share price rose 4.5p to 441.5p.

Vertu Motors (LON: VTU) is paying an interim dividend of 0.85p/share and the share price increased o.85p to 71.95p.

Oil jumps on US crude supply shortages and Fed rate cut hopes

Oil prices jumped on Thursday following a larger-than-anticipated weekly reduction in U.S. crude inventories and hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early in 2024.

Oil continues its upward movement, with WTI crude up by 1.91% and Brent crude by 2.03% at the time of writing on Thursday.

This is in part driven by indications from the U.S. Federal Reserve suggesting a combined reduction of 75 basis points in 2024.

Recently, the Fed chose to keep interest rates steady at 5.25%- 5.5% for the third consecutive meeting.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated on Wednesday that the era of significant tightening in monetary policy is probably at an end.

The Federal Open Market Committee statement included updated projections, forecasting increased GDP growth for the current year at 2.6 percent, up from the September projection of 2.1 percent.

“Market hopes that the Fed will end up introducing rate cuts more rapidly next year and lowering borrowing costs have lifted hopes of a softer landing for the US economy, and expectations that this will mean demand for energy will remain more buoyant,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Figures showing stockpiles of crude fell more than expected last week also have helped support prices,” she added.

FTSE 100 surges higher with European stocks after Federal Reserve signals interest rate pivot in 2024

A wave of optimism lifted European stocks on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signalled the interest rate hiking cycle was over, and the central bank would start to cut rates in 2024.

Interest rate futures markets are pricing in up to six interest cuts by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in 2024, equating to 150bps in interest rate cuts.

The German DAX and French CAC hit intra-day all-time highs as the FTSE 100 rose 1.9% in early trade on Thursday.

“Equity markets have enjoyed a hearty boost after Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell indicated further rate rises were not needed. While the market was already pricing in rate cuts from 2024, investors welcomed Powell’s comments with open arms. Having it spelt out was music to their ears,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The market has been waiting a long time for this pivot in monetary policy and it’s finally come. The news sent the Dow to a new record high and put the S&P within a whisker of the 4,766-closing price achieved on 31 December 2021, just before the sharp interest rate hiking cycle began.

“The attention now shifts to when we could see rate cuts and it looks like May could be the magic moment.”

On Thursday, markets were in a clear risk-on mode, with stocks surging higher and bond yields falling.

The optimism was reflected in a cyclical rally in FTSE 100 stocks, taking miners, housebuilders and retailers considerably higher.

Ocado was the top riser as the food distribution technology company cheered the prospect of lower interest rates. Ocado is classed as a tech stock by many and has suffered during the tightening cycle. Hopes of a lower risk-free rate in 2024 fired the stock up on Thursday, gaining 9%.

Antofagasta, Anglo American, Glencore and Rio Tinto added between 4%-7% as miners did much of the heavy lifting in the FTSE 100’s rally. Lowering borrowing costs will boost major construction projects and provide support for commodity prices and mining activities.

The same school of thought helped plant-hire company Ashtead 7% higher.

Other interest rate-sensitive sectors, including housebuilders and retailers, were among the risers as traders positioned for an improving environment for the consumer in 2024.

Taylor Wimpey jumped 4.5% and Barratt Developments gained 3.4%. DIY specialist Kingfisher jumped 6%, while Howden Joinery ticked 4% higher.

Currys shares spread festive cheer as guidance maintained despite challenging environment

Currys shares were spreading festive cheer on Thursday as the retailer said trading was in line with expectations and was strengthening their balance sheet by selling its Greek business.

In addition, cash generated from operations rose to £172m in the half-year period to 28th October, which helped to dramatically reduce free cash outflow down to £10m from £86m.

Currys shares were 10.9% higher at the time of writing on Thursday.

There were like-for-like sales delines across their geographies, but the company said they were committed to bolstering the top line and growing margin in the coming period.

The Nordics reported sales fell 12% in the period, and the company has earmarked the segment for special attention going forward.

“Our priorities this year are simple: to get the Nordics back on track, to keep up the UK&I’s encouraging momentum, while strengthening our balance sheet and liquidity. We’re making good progress on all these in a still challenging economic environment,” said Alex Baldock, Group Chief Executive of Currys.

“In the Nordics, our trusted brands have delivered substantial gross margin gains, which combined with strong cost discipline have resulted in significantly improved profits. There’s still a long way back to healthy Nordics performance, but we’re on the way.

“In the UK&I, profits are in line with expectations, as we focus on more profitable sales and growing the services that drive margins and customer lifetime value. Credit, Care & Repair and iD Mobile are all performing strongly, while colleague engagement and customer satisfaction continue to rise.

Analysts were positive on today’s update from Currys. There is the recognition of the macro challenges for a company selling expensive discretionary goods in a cost-of-living crisis and Currys’ progress despite clear headwinds.

“It was a good day to release positive news with the market in such a buoyant mood and today’s announcement from Currys, while not unblemished, certainly represented progress from the electronics retailer,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“For more than a year Currys has been a tale of Nordic noir as its previously reliable Scandinavian business has been beset by competitive pressures. Margins for this region being back at their level from two years ago will reassure shareholders that Currys is starting to put its problems behind it.

“Revenue is under pressure across the board, and the company chalked up a first-half loss, but it is telling it felt confident enough to stick with full-year guidance – hinting the Christmas trading period must be off to a solid enough start.

“There may be no return to the lockdown period when people had the means and motivation to snap up new electronic goods but Currys will hope as pressures on household budgets start to ease, appetite for buying larger ticket items will return.”

Vietnam Holding Investor Presentation December 2023

Vietnam Holding Investor Presentation December 2023.

Vietnam Holding (LON:VNH) invests in high-growth companies in Vietnam, focusing on domestic consumption, industrialisation and urbanisation. Craig Martin, Chairman of Dynam Capital, the manager of Vietnam Holding, presents at a London Stock Exchange event.

Oil continues its fall from grace despite promises of OPEC+ production cuts

Oil prices continue to fall as the promised Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) cuts fail to buoy prices.

Despite potential support for oil prices from recent OPEC+ production cuts, oil has fallen exponentially since late September.

“We have seen a mild recovery since then, and the next few weeks may be crucial in deciding whether this is just a brief pause before the sell-off since September resumes or an early indication that a bottom of some sort has been reached,” said David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at FCA.

WTI Crude and Brent Crude were broadly flat at the time of writing on Wednesday.

Brent hit a six-month low last Thursday.

The front-month WTI contract has recently bounced off support in the region of $70 to $67.50.

The agreement reached on November 30 by the OPEC+ involves the producers maintaining existing cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd). It also includes adding nearly 1 million bpd in new voluntary reductions by other participating nations.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are already implementing domestic production cuts and have been urging other countries to join them. However, Russia continues to maintain strong levels of exports which is weighing on global markets.

“In terms of the demand outlook, orders for Saudi Arabian crude from Chinese refiners are at a multi-month low,” said David Morrison.

“As for tensions across the Middle East,” added David Morrison, “there has been relatively little reaction to several missile and drone attacks on ships in the Red Sea from Houthis in Yemen.”.

Global EV sales reach record high in November

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Leading electric vehicle (EV) data analysis firm Rho Motion has revealed that global EV sales in November reached a record-breaking 1.4 million EVs.

In November, the year-on-year (YoY) growth in EV sales was up 20%.

The figures, released by Rho Motion this week, indicate robust market growth of 8% compared to the previous month.

This marks 2023 as the most successful year for electric vehicle (EV) sales in history.

When it comes to the last month of the year, December, Charles Lester, Data Manager at Rho Motion, said, “Sales have continued to rise despite a lot of negative sentiment in the market, and we’re expecting sales to remain strong.”.

In Europe, battery-electric vehicles have experienced a remarkable 37% year-to-date increase compared to 2022.

Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have remained steady since the beginning of the year, according to Rho Motion.

In China, where November and December typically mark the annual peak for sales, Rho said this trend looks set to continue in 2023, with November showing a month-on-month increase of 9%.

North America has witnessed the most significant year-on-year sales surge, with a notable 43% jump in total sales.

While Tesla and BYD still dominate the market, legacy car manufacturers are quickly rampig up production and taking market shares. For example, General Motors sales in North America alone were up by 16.5% at the end of three months on September 30, 2023.

COP28 agrees on a deal to phase out all fossil fuels

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On Wednesday in Dubai, during the Conference of the Parties (COP28) summit, which is the UN’s main climate Conference, a deal to phase out all fossil fuels was struck.

The COP28 deal states that “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner […] so as to achieve net zero by 2050 is in keeping with the science.”

UN Secretary General António Guterres said on Wednesday that “whether you like it or not, the phaseout of fossil fuels is inevitable. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”

The result

During the Conference, COP28 members are separated into delegate groups, which usually share similar geographical locations and political and economic interests.

Saudi-Arabia-led oil-producing members of the Climate Conference lobbied hard for a prolonged reliance on mixed energy sources. The oil producer group clashed with approximately 100 other members of the Conference.

They were met with strong opposition from the Alliance of Small Island States, which also pushed for the specific, stronger wording of “phasing out” the fossil fuels in the deal.

On Wednesday, the deal was finally approved by COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber.

But while it’s nonetheless a big win, many worry that the wins might stop there, as stronger phrasing is not enough when stronger implementations are not in place.

The deal was criticised by many, who said that the only thing that seems to be set in stone with this agreement is that it aims at phasing out fossil fuels.

Each country will now need to set targets on their own. Much resistance to comply might once again follow.

There is a certain level of vagueness around the implementation of the deal that many worry about. This vagueness was demonstrated by Al Jaber’s words at the Conference when he said, “Now it is up to you,” to his fellow delegates.

John Kerry, the USA’s climate envoy, said that everyone should be happy with this deal,even if it is not ideal.

“Everyone might have said things a bit differently, but I think this is a cause for optimism. I am in awe of the spirit of cooperation,” he said.

The role of Saudi Arabia

COP28 President and Saudi Arabia’s delegate, Sultan Al Jaber, famously opened the climate change Conference on October 30 by calling all the members to continue burning fossil fuels.

Sultan Al Jaber, apart from being the year’s COP President, is also the CEO of Adnoc, the UAE’s state-owned oil company.

Last month, Al Jaber also said at a live event that he believes there is “no science” behind the need to phase out fossil fuels.

“There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuels is what’s going to achieve 1.5 C,” he angrily said during the event.

1.5 C is a crucial threshold that, when overstepped, might cause irreversible climatic consequences. Scientists and multiple government bodies have reached a consensus regarding this threshold, but many interested in continuous oil production still disagree.

After the deal to phase out fossil fuels was reached at COP, Sultan Al Jaber said that “we are what we do, not what we say. We must take the steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible actions.”.