AIM movers: Impellam bid and bad Christmas for Tandem

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Recruitment firm Impellam (LON: IPEL) has finally agreed a takeover offer after months of being in a bid situation. HeadFirst is offering 557.2p/share in cash and 392.8p/shares in loan notes for each Impellam share. Shareholders will also receive the 55.9p/share dividend announced, plus a further cash dividend of 22.4p/share and a in specie dividend of 56.1p/share. This all adds up to 1,084.4p/share and values Impellam at £483.2m. The non-convertible loan notes offer annual interest of 17% and last an initial 3 years. The convertibles have annual interest of 12% and the total loan amount can be converted into 20% of the bid vehicle. The share price rose 34.6% to 875p.

Power Metal Resources (LON: POW) is pushing ahead with the sale of its Canadian uranium assets to former AIM company Teathers Financial, which will be renamed Uranium Energy Exploration. The proposed disposal was originally announced in August 2022. Teathers Financial has raised pre-IPO funding of £421,500 at 1.241135p/share. A London quotation is planned for the first half of 2024. The share price improved 14.2% to 0.725p.

Wishbone Gold (LON: WSBN) says visual inspection of core from recent drilling at the Cottesloe project in Western Australia show zones containing base metals while x-ray fluorescence scanning shows elevated base metals readings. Assay results will make things clearer. The share price is 9.85% higher at 1.45p.

Phase 3 trials of the grass allergy treatment developed by Allergy Therapeutics (LON: AGY) show highly statistically significant reductions in symptoms compared with a placebo. There will be a meeting with the regulators in the first quarter of 2024. This helped the share price to recover 8.25% to 2.1p, following last week’s announcement that cash would last until January.

FALLERS

Toys and leisure products supplier Tandem (LON: TND) says full year results will be worse than anticipated and a £1.1m loss is forecast for 2023 – down from a 2022 pre-tax profit of £1.2m. The only bright area was bicycles, where new product launches helped growth. Elsewhere, pre-Christmas trading has been tough. There is potential to generate additional income from leasing spare warehouse space. The share price slumped 22.8% to 110p.

There is a continued decline in the share price of energy and water efficiency company Eneraqua Technologies (LON: ETP) after yesterday afternoon’s announcement that two local authorities are delaying spending. There is also a £900,000 exceptional charge relating to defective equipment. A loss of £6m is forecast for 2023-24. There was a near one-third share price decline yesterday and today there is a further fall of 12% to 40.5p.  

Trading in platinum-focused miner Future Metals (LON: FME) shares has been halted on ASX due to an imminent capital raising but continues on AIM. The share price has slipped 11.9% to 1.3p, which is a new low.

Steppe Cement (LON: STCM) says new tax legislation in the Netherlands and Kazakhstan makes the payment of dividends inefficient. Tax would be charged in multiple jurisdictions. A dividend of 2p-3p/share had been promised. Alternative ways of returning cash to shareholders are being assessed. The share price is 8.33% lower at 22p.

FTSE 100 edges tentatively higher ahead of Federal Reserve rates decision

On Wednesday, the FTSE 100 shook off poor UK GDP data to tentatively gain as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this evening.

The Federal Reserve is not expected to change interest rates. But that doesn’t make the decision and accompanying commentary any less important.

Markets will be fixated on the Federal Reserve for any hints of their thinking around the trajectory of interest rates, and, crucially, when the Federal Reserve will first cut rates in 2024.

London’s leading index gained 0.3%, while the German Dax added 0.05%.

“The FTSE 100 ticked higher as investors await the latest decision from the Federal Reserve on interest rates,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.

“So far, the market is seeing nothing to disabuse it of the notion that rate cuts are on the way in 2024 as US inflation came in as expected yesterday and UK GDP figures show the economy is weakening faster than anticipated. 

“To what extent Fed chair Jerome Powell and his Bank of England counterpart Andrew Bailey seek to dampen these expectations could well determine the trajectory of stocks heading into the end of the year.”

The Bank of England is due to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, but like the Federal Reserve, is not expected to amend the base rate.

FTSE 100 movers

Gaming group Entain was the FTSE 100 best performer on Wednesday after CEO stepped down following the settlement of a bribery case relating to their Turkish business. Entain shares jumped as much as 4% on Wednesday.

Investors could observe weakness in UK focused stocks including B&M European Value and Rightmove as profit takers took the poor UK GDP as a trigger to book recent gains.

B&M fell 6%, and Rightmove slipped 4%.

Rolls Royce slipped marginally as investors booked profits after a rip-roaring run. Rolls Royce is the FTSE 100’s best performer of 2023.

There was mild favour for defensive stocks, with utilities and pharma rising while cyclical banks and miners fell.

Sterling dumps as recession fears rise after depressing UK GDP reading

Sterling sank against the dollar on Wednesday as traders digested a dismal GDP reading for October that fueled speculation the Bank of England will be required to cut rates earlier than previously thought.

The UK economy contracted 0.3% in October as poor weather dented spending amid an already challenging environment for the UK’s consumer.

“Awful weather and the disruption caused by strikes won’t have helped, but even with the continued squeeze on consumer spending, the contraction in economic growth recorded in October was greater than had been expected,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.

“All sectors of the economy were affected as the impact of two years of interest rate hikes work their way through the system. The big question is whether October is the harbinger of recession or a tipping point as wage growth finally surpasses inflation?”

Economists and market analysts have flip-flopped on calls for a UK recession over the past two years, with the economy dodging the most damaging effects of the cost of living crisis and rising interest rates.

It will take a brave forecaster to put their head above the parapet and call for a recession after so many have got it so wrong for so long.

That said, a 0.3% contraction is material, and the UK will need a bumper festive trading period to grow in the fourth quarter.

Importantly for markets, a UK recession, or projections of a recession, will play into central bank thinking and could bring forward the eventual date for the Bank of England’s first rate cut after the hiking cycle.

Slower wage growth released yesterday certainly supports the view that the UK is ready for borrowing cost to fall. However, timing the first cut is pure conjecture at this stage.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “it does increase the likelihood that the Bank of England might cut rates earlier than forecast, although it’s still not likely until the second half of next year, given that wage increases, although slowing, are still strong.”

The Bank of England will announce their last interest rate decision of 2023 tomorrow.

Innovative Eyewear announces 2.0 features for ChatGPT-enabled Android app for smart eyewear

Another day, another important step forward for Tekcapital’s portfolio company, Innovative Eyewear.

Today, we learned Innovative Eyewear’s ChatGPT-enabled Lucyd smart eyewear Andriod app will be upgraded with 2.0 features, including a voice interface and the ability to export ChatGPT output to email.

Innovative Eyewear’s Lucyd app is the first app to provide a voice interface for ChatGPT.

The app is available in the Google Play store now, and the 2.0 features will be launched later this month.

“We are excited to launch the new version of the Lucyd app for Android, which powers seamless voice access to ChatGPT on Lucyd eyewear,” said Harrison Gross, CEO of Innovative Eyewear.

“The new state-of-the-art interface makes the world’s most popular AI language model easier to use than ever on our glasses and while on the go. We look forward to introducing additional features, a shop, and a pro version of the app in the near future.

“We also anticipate making the app a hub for connecting to multiple AI systems through our glasses with voice control, as outlined in our pending utility patent on the app. We believe this will deliver more functionality to our community and foster the development of an additional revenue stream from users of other “hearables” that want seamless voice access to ChatGPT.”

The news follows yesterday’s announcement that Nautica-branded smart eyewear will be available starting in January.

Innovative Eyewear’s Android app includes a raft of new features, including:

  • A ChatGPT toolbox has been added to the app with the following capabilities: the ability to write a paragraph from a prompt, translate English into Spanish, synopsize long tracts of text, improve the readability of text, generate an email with a prompt, and analyze the emotion of text. These tools use pre-specified parameters to generate useful types of analysis and copywriting from ChatGPT more rapidly.
  • An updated visual interface, with smoother graphics and intuitive controls for a more user-friendly experience.
  • Textual chat responses to queries now appear in an updated stream format.
  • The voice quality of the app’s text-to-speech functionality has been improved.
  • The sharing feature has been updated to include the ability to export ChatGPT responses to email, SMS and social apps.
  • Additionally, the app is in the final stages of approval with Google for enabling handsfree Google Voice access to ChatGPT on Lucyd Eyewear. This final feature of the 2.0 update is expected to go live later this month.

Gold trading: Challenging the common assumptions

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by Craig Erlam

As commodities go, few are as unique and versatile as gold. From its historical roots as the asset at the heart of monetary systems, to its enduring appeal as a status symbol to be adorned, the precious metal has shown lasting appeal.

Gold trading is highly liquid, and the international gold market can offer opportunities for traders.

But there are some common and long-held assumptions about gold as an investment asset that require deeper interrogation. In this article, I unpack three key factors to understand before trading gold.

Gold as an inflation hedge

One of the most commonly-held assumptions about gold is that it can offer protection against inflation.

During periods of high inflation, gold – a physical asset with intrinsic value and limited supply – tends to retain its value compared to fiat currencies, which decrease in actual value as the cost of goods and services rise.

While it is true that gold has historically demonstrated an ability to hold value and therefore to preserve wealth during periods of high inflation, this concept is neither foolproof nor true in all circumstances.

Gold may be more likely to act as a successful hedge against inflation in extreme conditions: for example, in a country experiencing runaway inflation or seeing its currency collapse. However, traders and investors should be aware that gold is not a guaranteed hedge against inflation, and that multiple factors influence the price of gold.

Gold as a safe haven asset

Many investors will be familiar with the concept that gold is a ‘safe haven’ in uncertain times, from economic instability to geopolitical turbulence. Seen as less correlated to asset classes such as stocks and bonds, gold’s relative stability means it is often viewed as a good asset to diversify portfolios.

While gold’s status as a stable asset even in an unstable market has built up over the centuries, it’s important to understand that gold is not immune to volatility. The safe haven maxim can be true, but it is still situation-dependent. In reality, a range of factors from market conditions to investor sentiment have an impact on the price of gold, and crucially, interest rates play a key role.

The impact of US interest rates

Unlike stocks and bonds, gold does not provide dividends or cash flow to investors. As a result, the price of gold is typically inversely correlated with real interest rates – specifically those of the US’s Federal Reserve, as gold is priced in USD. Broadly speaking, when US yields are high, assets that generate no cash flow become less appealing, and vice versa.

As a result, expectations around interest rates play into the price of gold too – and this is a difficult relationship to navigate. While actual changes to US interest rates only occur every six weeks following Federal Reserve meetings, expectations and sentiment around interest rates can fluctuate constantly.

Interest rate expectations can impact the price of gold in a number of ways: for example, higher interest rates in the US can lead to the USD appreciating, which makes buying gold more expensive for non-USD holders. Additionally, rising rates can be perceived as anti-inflationary, which can impact gold’s appeal to investors.

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Team ethos key for abrdn Asia Focus plc as pioneer Hugh Young retires

After almost 40 years with Aberdeen Asset Management (now abrdn) – including 28 years founding and running abrdn Asia Focus investment trust (AAS) – venerable Asia hand Hugh Young is finally to hang up his managerial boots, or at least leave them on the step for his teammate and successor Gabriel Sacks to step into.

They’re undoubtedly big boots to fill. Morningstar data shows that AAS has produced annualised returns of almost 12% since launch in 1995, compared with 4.5% from the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Small Cap benchmark index. Put another way, £1,000 invested in AAS in 1995 would now be worth almost £22,000, versus £3,400 from the benchmark.

Young “fell into” his career after studying politics at Exeter University, and by the early 1980s was running Asian equities in the UK. In 1985 he moved to Aberdeen to run what is now the abrdn Asia Pacific and Japan Equity fund, and in 1987 launched abrdn’s specialist Asia ex Japan unit trust.

He had several very successful years, followed, inevitably, by an awful one. At that point, Young took radical action: “It seemed a bit daft to manage funds investing in Asia from London, so I moved out to Singapore to set up the office here in 1992.”

With around £200 million under management across various UK funds to look after, he and a lone assistant from London set up Aberdeen’s Asia desk in an old shophouse on the Singapore river.

The gamble paid off. Young and his expanding team were on the ground as regional economic growth gathered momentum and markets such as Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, China and India progressively opened up to foreign investors over the next three decades.

“Operating from London and doing two-week visits, it’s easy to claim you’re an Asia expert,” he observes. “But especially at that time, it was very difficult unless you were living and breathing it – certainly the way we operated, which was and still is a very old-fashioned method involving spending time with the companies and doing a lot of individual due diligence.”

The team’s approach has always been based on diversity, investing on a long-term, bottom-up basis across a spread of countries and sectors, he adds. “We’re looking for good, well-run companies with honest owners and decent employment practices, in industries we believe will grow over the next five or 10 years.” Some holdings have been in the portfolio for 20 or 30 years. 

Young made his name as an Asian smaller companies specialist – “smaller companies are just a lot more interesting” – and has remained as lead manager on the small-cap focused abrdn Asia Focus investment trust, after giving up high-profile roles as head of investments at Aberdeen and CEO/chair of Aberdeen Standard Asia.

But he is quick to point out that the whole Asian enterprise, as it has grown, is based on teamwork: “A team-based process was crucial simply to cover the ground, given we had getting on for 20 countries and potentially thousands of companies to invest in.”

The team ethos is simple enough: “We look for honest managers and owners running decent businesses doing the right things, and invest at the best price. Now we have around 40 analysts and managers on the equity team and around 500 employees in total across the region, and the Asia office runs roughly $50 billion,” he adds. 

New recruits start as analysts and progress to management as their knowledge of different markets and sectors grows. Brazilian-born Gabriel Sacks is one of many who started and stayed with abrdn, cutting his teeth with the emerging markets (EM) team during and after internship in 2008.

“As a youngster, one of the great things about abrdn was how much exposure to major EM companies I got, and how much room to grow,” he comments. “Hugh has instilled a really collaborative, supportive way of working, and in an industry with a bad reputation for competition and hierarchy.”

Sacks spent a decade in London on the EM desk, working closely with Young and the Asia team, followed in 2018 by five years in the Singapore office itself.

“With around 70% of our emerging market portfolios in Asia, I became very aware of the shift in the global centre of gravity towards the east, so it was important to spend some time on the ground,” he explains. He covered mainly small caps, but also had input into other Asian and EM portfolios.

Sacks is returning to London to take AAS’s reins.  While this is an exciting move for him, he is at pains to stress that it’s still basically all about the team. “Hugh became a star manager because he was a pioneer in Asia and was very successful there, but he himself would say it’s always been very much a collaborative approach,” he says.

Nor does he see himself as ‘taking over’ when Young leaves at Christmas. “I’d love to think I’m irreplaceable, but in reality there would be a large, experienced team to pick up things where I left off, including my co-managers Flavia Cheong and Xin-Yao Ng.”

Nonetheless, there has been a lot of succession planning, and Sacks has been working closely with Young to refresh the AAS portfolio over the past five years: changing the name, trimming the number of holdings, weeding out some legacy stocks and introducing new ideas to drive performance in the future (some of which have since done extremely well).

Sacks, like his predecessor, is fired up by the potential of smaller companies: “It’s an opportunity to find some real gems that even other Asian fund managers haven’t really heard much about,” he enthuses.

He’s keen to play forward-looking themes for AAS, including Asia’s extremely strong technology supply chain, the emergent green theme, and the growth of the Asian middle class: “Globally, of the next billion people to join the middle class, almost 90% is expected to come from Asia, which is a great tailwind for well-managed companies in areas such as consumer goods and financial services.”

But there are no changes planned for the fundamentals on which abrdn Asia Focus is run, says Sacks. “Hugh has always said to keep things simple: understand what the business is, how it’s run and what the growth trajectory is, and then don’t overpay for it.”

Of course, that is often easier said than done, but the abrdn Asia Focus team is thriving on a wealth of innovative ideas, robust discussion and peer review, in a part of the Asian market that has seen great outperformance and real long-term growth.

Important information

Risk factors you should consider prior to investing:

  • The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than the amount invested.
  • Past performance is not a guide to future results.
  • Investment in the Company may not be appropriate for investors who plan to withdraw their money within 5 years.
  • The Company may borrow to finance further investment (gearing). The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV) meaning that any movement in the value of the company’s assets will result in a magnified movement in the NAV.
  • The Company may accumulate investment positions which represent more than normal trading volumes which may make it difficult to realise investments and may lead to volatility in the market price of the Company’s shares.
  • The Company may charge expenses to capital which may erode the capital value of the investment.
  • The Company invests in smaller companies which are likely to carry a higher degree of risk than larger companies.
  • Movements in exchange rates will impact on both the level of income received and the capital value of your investment.
  • There is no guarantee that the market price of the Company’s shares will fully reflect their underlying Net Asset Value.
  • As with all stock exchange investments the value of the Company’s shares purchased will immediately fall by the difference between the buying and selling prices, the bid-offer spread. If trading volumes fall, the bid-offer spread can widen.
  • The Company invests in emerging markets which tend to be more volatile than mature markets and the value of your investment could move sharply up or down.
  • Specialist funds which invest in small markets or sectors of industry are likely to be more volatile than more diversified trusts.
  • Yields are estimated figures and may fluctuate, there are no guarantees that future dividends will match or exceed historic dividends and certain investors may be subject to further tax on dividends

Other important information:

Issued by abrdn Investments Limited, registered in England and Wales (740118) at 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4AG. abrdn Investments Limited, registered in Scotland (No. 108419), 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1XL. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK.

Find out more at www.asia-focus.co.uk or by registering for updates. You can also follow us on social media: Twitter and LinkedIn.

hVIVO wins new RSV testing contract amid strong trading performance, shares jump

hVIVO shares rose on Wednesday after the world leader in testing infectious and respiratory disease vaccines and therapeutics announced they had won a fresh contract with an existing client. In addition, hVIVO said they saw trading ahead of market prior expectations as EBITDA margins expand.

hVIVO has signed a £16.8m contract with a top 5 pharmaceutical client to test its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antiviral drug candidate using hVIVO’s RSV Human Challenge Study Model.

RSV impacts around 50 million people globally and is a leading cause of childhood lower respiratory infections.

The contract includes expedited manufacturing of the RSV challenge agent, a confirmatory challenge cohort, and a multiple cohort challenge trial to evaluate dosing and efficacy. Revenue will be recognised across 2023-2025, with most in 2024. hVIVO will immediately commence virus manufacturing to complete in H1 2024.

Subject to successful manufacturing and approvals, the challenge trial will start in H2 2024 at hVIVO’s new London facility.

hVIVO shares were over 7% higher at the time of writing on Wednesday.

“Our RSV (Memphis strain) challenge agent has played a significant role in the development of RSV vaccines and we are delighted that it is continuing to be used as the go-to model for our clients,” said Yamin ‘Mo’ Khan, Chief Executive Officer of hVIVO.

“We have built a world-leading portfolio of challenge agents and are working hard with our clients to add new models all the time. This contract is another example of the end-to-end full service offering that hVIVO has already successfully provided to several clients.”

Strong trading performance

hVIVO also announced trading is ahead of previous expectations, with EBITDA margins exceeding 20% in 2023 due to improved efficiencies and facilities funding benefitting 2023-2024.

The company has clear revenue visibility into 2024, and today’s RSV award demonstrates the calibre of contracts the company is winning.

“We are also delighted with the Company’s strong operational performance in 2023 and now expect to exceed the previous market guidance and look forward to updating the market further in the new year,” Yamin Khan said.

FTSE 100 gives up gains as US inflation increases

London’s FTSE 100 perked up on Tuesday morning after tentative signs the Bank of England may cut rates in early 2024 after UK wage growth slowed.

However, these gains had evaporated by mid-afternoon as markets digested news US CPI increased 0.1% month-on-month in November. The year-on-year CPI reading came in at 3.1%.

US bond yields spiked immediately higher, and US futures sank. The FTSE 100 was trading at 7,552 after breaching 7,600 briefly earlier in the session.

US inflation 

Early gains in London were dashed after markets learned today’s US inflation would not support the dovish argument for rate cuts early next year.

Today’s inflation data leaves markets finely poised for this week’s slate of central bank action, kicking off with the Federal Reserve tomorrow evening.

Investors will watch keenly for any hints of rate cuts in early 202e and central bankers’ tone when discussing inflation. 

The Bank of England will decide on rates this Thursday and is widely considered to keep the base rate at 5.25%.

UK wage growth

Falling UK wage growth provided welcome support for UK-centric sectors on Tuesday.

The BoE has previously highlighted wage growth as an inflationary cause for concern. Should wage growth cool further, the case for rate cuts becomes more compelling.

“An easing in wage growth and a decline in job vacancies in the UK is something that will be closely watched by the Bank of England, particularly as the 7.2% growth in average earnings in the three months to October was considerably lower than the 7.7% consensus forecast,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.

“Prior to this announcement, the Bank of England had been expected to hold rates at 5.25% when it next reports this Thursday. If we see a continuation of the wage growth trend then investors are likely to become more confident that the Bank of England will start to cut rates sooner rather than later in 2024.”

The FTSE 100’s rate-sensitive sectors made promising gains, with Rightmove rising 2.4% and house builders ticking gently higher. These gains were reduced after the US CPI reading.

Housebuilders desperately need mortgage rates to fall to reinvigorate the UK’s property market after an extended period of slowing activity. 

A rebound in miners helped the FTSE 100’s cause as Rio Tinto and Glencore bounced back from yesterday’s sell-off.

Expansion plans for Sosandar despite dip into loss

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Online fashion retailer Sosandar (LON: SOS) reported slower growth in the first half, but there are signs that momentum is rebuilding in the second half. The share price recovered 3.15% to 14.75p, which is well below the February placing and retail offer price of 22p.

AIM-quoted Sosandar increased its interim revenues by 6%, but it swung from a pre-tax profit of £77,000 to a loss of £1.35m as it gears up for further growth. Gross margin edged up due to a reduction in price promotions activity, but overheads increased due to higher commissions to partners. This reflects higher sales through Next and other high street retailers.

There was £7m in the bank at the end of September 2023, even though inventories were increased. This is enough to finance the expansion plans.

Sosandar is broadening its strategy to include its first high street shops, plus expansion in additional regions. The sales via other retailers have made management believe that it is the right time to move into the high street. There is no indication where the stores will be, but the first should open in the spring.

Deals have been signed with The Bay in Canada and The Iconic in Australia, which will sell Sosandar clothing online before the end of March 2024. Sainsbury’s fashion concept stores launched in October with a range of Sosandar’s products.

In October and November revenues were £10.2m, which is a 16% increase on the same period last year, and gross margin continues to improve. Singer is sticking to its full year forecast of revenues of £46.8m and a £100,000 profit, which could increase to £1m next year.

The strategy is to achieve £100m in revenues and £10m in pre-tax profit in the medium-term, helped by higher store margins.

Solar car parks, connecting to the grid, and EV charging with 3ti

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to be joined Tim Evans, CEO and Founder of 3ti, an award-winning B Corp specialising in solar power generation, storage and EV charging.

Find out more on Crowdcube here.

Their mission is to ‘Leave Something Better Behind’.

3ti has established solar car park facilities for partners including Bentley, JPMorgan, NHS and MoD. The company has over 900 sales enquiries and is raising funds to meet this demand.

The business’s economics are compelling. On average, 3ti’s solar car park produces £1,000 in energy cost savings per year per car parking space. A 100-space car park harnessing 3ti’s solar technology can save up to £100,000 in energy bills.

In addition to its core services, the company is developing new vehicle-to-grid (V-to-G) technology. V-to-G enables power stored in electric vehicles to be supplied to the wider network, generating grid management fees.

Tim explains the favourable regulatory environment and market opportunity for 3ti. The company is exploring expansion into the United States to meet burgeoning demand.

3ti will be holding a series of webinars and investor open days.

Register for 3ti’s Open Days and Webinars here.

Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 mins to learn more