UK stocks jump and the pound falls as UK CPI tumbles to 4.6%

UK stocks surged and the pound fell against the dollar on Wednesday morning after the UK recorded a significant drop in inflation to the lowest levels since 2021.

UK CPI fell to 4.6% in October, down from 6.7% in September, in a major step down in inflation rates.

“Inflation has tumbled to 4.6% – smashing the government’s target to halve by the end of the year, and hitting its lowest point in two years. It’s still way above the Bank of England’s target of 2%, but it’s heading in the right direction. Unfortunately, we can’t get too excited, because it’s not going to be downhill all the way from here,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Traders are now pricing in UK rate cuts of up to 80 bps next year.

Lower inflation rates coupled with the increasing chance of rate cuts next year buoyed UK stocks on Wednesday morning, and the FTSE 100 started the session 0.8% higher at 7,502.

Housebuilders were among the risers, as were UK-focused retailers. UK banking shares rose as gilt yields fell.

“Lower than expected inflation is good news for consumers, it provides an additional boost to their spending power and will hopefully ease some of the day-to-day financial pressure. Pressure will also ease on the Bank of England and it’s battle with inflation, with the bank increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady into the new year,” said James McManus, chief investment officer at Nutmeg.

GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.2473 as traders considered Bank of England rate cuts next year.

Premier African Minerals issues disastrous Zulu lithium project update

Premier African Minerals shares were sharply lower on Tuesday after the lithium miner issued a disastrous update on operations at the Zulu project.

The Premier African Minerals share price had plunged 20% to 0.24p at the time of writing. Shares are down 47% over the past month.

Last week, the UK Investor Magazine published an article entitled ‘Premier African Minerals shares: proceed with caution’ detailing discrepancies in the company’s official regulatory news releases and social media posts made by the CEO of the Stark – the company contracted to construct Zulu’s lithium processing facilities.

In an RNS issued 3rd November, Premier African Minerals alluded to ‘ongoing commissioning and optimisation issues’ at Zulu resulting in ‘material flow challenges’.

These assertions were countered by a contradictory social media post on X by Stark CEO Geoffrey Madderson, who said, “Guys, relax. There is no issue on the plant.”

Geoffrey Madderson’s account now appears to have been deleted. It’s easy to see why.

There was an issue with the plant. Today, Premier African Minerals said that they would miss not only November’s 1,000 tonne production deadline but December’s as well.

This will mean $3m in penalty payments to offtake partner Canmax. Compounding the problem for Premier’s shareholders, the company does not seem to have the cash lying around after it was forced to dilute investors by paying Stark in newly issued shares for a plant that is not yet functional.

Under the terms of the renegotiated offtake deal agreed earlier this year, Canmax has the right to take penalty payments in the form of newly issued Premier African Minerals shares, promising further dilution for investors.

Investors will understandably be frustrated with RNS releases outlining issues at Zulu and contradictory media appearances by Premier African Minerals and Stark suggesting the situation was under control.

Premier African Minerals is now considering ceasing the operation of current plant facilities in order to build a fresh mill, imposing substantial delays to increasing production to the required levels. In addition, achieving the required production by the end of January is far from certain.

Premier African Minerals is also yet to confirm the grade of any lithium produced at Zulu.

Sweden’s Fintech Revolution: Pioneering the Future of Finance

When you think about countries leading the way in fintech you might not immediately think of Sweden. The thing is, if you didn’t, you’d be missing a trick. Sweden has emerged over recent years as a hotbed for fintech innovation. But why is this? What is it about the market in Sweden that has put it at the forefront of fintech developments worldwide?

A cashless society

In the UK, we complain about every small bank branch that faces closure. However, in Sweden they have embraced the move towards a cashless society and it’s actually predicted that Sweden might become the world’s first completely cashless country. 

The transition is being helped by the widespread use of mobile payment apps that allow people to transfer money instantly using their smartphones. As a result, traditional banks and payment methods are slowly becoming obsolete.

Sustainable investment

Sweden’s fintech revolution is supported by companies like Incore Invest, who recognise the unique position of Sweden and the potential for fintech companies to do well. Incore Invest already has investments in companies like Mynt, a Swedish fintech that simplifies business expenses and accounting, and they’re keen to invest in more.

Incore Invest’s founder Nicolai Chamizo, who grew up in Sweden, has spoken widely about his goals and has said that his ambition is to build the next Swedish fintech unicorn.

Open banking

Open banking allows different institutions to share financial data and makes fintech solutions much easier to develop and implement. While some countries have been resistant to open banking, Sweden has been an early adopter and Swedish regulators are keen to do what they can to promote innovation and competition in the financial sector. 

It’s only with a well-regulated but well-supported nationwide open banking system that fintech solutions and platforms can thrive.

Blockchain and cryptocurrency

Sweden is also making strides in blockchain and cryptocurrency technology. Blockchain, with its transparent and tamper-proof ledger, has the potential to revolutionise financial services, from cross-border payments to smart contracts. Startups like ChromaWay and Coinify are at the forefront of these innovations, exploring the applications of blockchain technology in the Swedish financial sector.

Robo-advisors

Robo-advisors have gained significant traction in Sweden, offering automated and algorithm-based investment services. Companies like BetterWealth and Lysa are disrupting the traditional wealth management industry by providing cost-effective, data-driven investment strategies. Robo-advisors are making it easier for Swedes to invest their money in a diversified and efficient manner.

Financial inclusion

Sweden’s fintech sector is also working towards greater financial inclusion. Companies like Tink and Klarna are enabling easier access to financial services and credit for underserved populations, including young adults and those with thin credit histories.

Collaboration and innovation

While in some countries fintech businesses exist in a competitive, secretive environment, the industry couldn’t be more different in Sweden. One of the hallmarks of the Swedish fintech scene is the spirit of collaboration and innovation, as businesses recognise that the only way to succeed is to share knowledge and support each other. 

A great example of this is how well the old and new work together. Startups often collaborate with traditional financial institutions, harnessing their expertise and infrastructure while providing fresh perspectives and agile solutions.

The combination of a tech-savvy population, a robust financial ecosystem and a supportive regulatory environment has made Sweden a fertile ground for fintech developments and those developments don’t look set to stop any time soon. 

What is much more likely is that Sweden will serve as a model for other countries, showing what’s achievable with the right attitude, government support and independent investment. Keep an eye on Swedish fintech over the next few years and you should see very exciting things.

FTSE 100 reverses losses as US inflation falls

The FTSE 100 reversed early losses on Tuesday after US CPI came in cooler than expected bringing forward expectations of when the Federal Reserve will cut rates.

As traders awaited highly anticipated US CPI data released at 13.30 GMT, Tuesday’s trading session had a quiet start after US stocks closed broadly flat on Monday night.

However, markets sprang back to life as soon as investors learned of the US’s cooler-than-expected October CPI reading, with US equity futures trading almost vertically higher and the FTSE 100 turned positive. US bond yields sank as investors started pricing lower interest rates along the curve.

US CPI fell to 3.2% in October from 3.7% in September. The lower-than-expected reading confirms a downtrend in inflation and moves headline and core inflation back towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Today’s reading validated market positioning by those who brushed off hawkish comments by Federal Officials suggesting there could be more interest rate hikes in the coming months.

Indeed, markets brought forward pricing of when the Federal Reserve will cut rates next year shortly after CPI was released.

Today’s reading does not entirely rule out another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, but it reduces the chances significantly. It also feeds the argument of a soft landing in the US economy.

Sentiment improved dramatically in the immediate wake of the announcement, and the FTSE 100 was trading 0.1% higher at the time of writing after residing in negative territory all morning.

FTSE 100 movers

Ocado leapt to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard on news of cooler US inflation as the food distribution technology company demonstrated its ‘tech stock’ attributes. US names such as Tesla, Meta and Netflix were higher in the premarket.

Vodafone was the biggest disappointment of the session after operating profits nearly halved in the most recent half-year period. The new CEO is struggling to deliver a turnaround strategy with weakness across many European countries, although there was minor positivity from Germany in the second quarter.

DCC was 12% higher after the industrial support services company said adjusted operating profit gained 12% in the six months to ended September.

Imperial Brands shares were marginally lower as the company tackled lower volumes with pricing strategies, leading to a 26% increase in operating profit. Strong performance in their vape business did a lot of the heavy lifting in terms of sales.

“Amid strengthening political and regulatory headwinds, one might think the tobacco and vaping industry is struggling. Imperial Brands’ results would suggest otherwise, as profits and dividends are growing,” said AJ Bell’s Russ Mould.

“While the industry might have over-estimated the speed by which smokers transition to vaping and other next-generation products, when you add up sales across the board companies like Imperial Brands are still making big money.”

Imperial Brands predicts rising profit and revenue in 2024

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Imperial Brands predicted a rise in revenue and profit for the upcoming year, yet announced on Tuesday that the growth in the first half would be slower due to this year’s price increases and investments in alternatives to tobacco.

Imperial Brands shares are down 0.96% at the time of writing.

Imperial’s Finance Chief Lukas Paravicini explained to journalists that slower growth in the first half of a year was predicted due to the tough comparison with a robust previous year, during which Imperial implemented substantial price hikes.

The company posted a 3.9% increase in adjusted operating profit for the 12 months ending 30th September, excluding the effects of foreign exchange and Imperial’s withdrawal from Russia. This surpassed the average analyst estimates of 3.5%.

CEO Stefan Bomhard stated that Imperial’s strategy, focused on reclaiming market share in five crucial tobacco markets, is yielding positive outcomes.

Imperial Brands forecasts low single-digit revenue growth in 2024, with adjusted operating profit expected to fall within the middle of its mid-single-digit range.

According to investment director at AJ Bell, Russ Mould, “Parts of the market remain doubtful nonetheless. When you have headlines about governments in different countries clamping down on smoking and trying to stop young people from vaping, it’s no wonder that sentiment remains poor towards shares in the sector.”

He added, however, that “consumers are increasingly paying more attention to health and wellness, and owning shares in this sector may not sit well with their moral conscience. But there will be others who see the opportunity to buy growing companies at cheap valuations. At the moment, the balance seems to be in favour of the former.”

Geothermal Engineering Limited to produce lithium from Cornish geothermal operations

On Tuesday, Geothermal Engineering Limited (GEL) announced plans to provide zero-carbon lithium onshore in the UK from next year, derived as a by-product from their geothermal mines in Cornwall.

GEL plans to produce approximately 100 tonnes per annum (tpa) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by late 2024, with the goal of scaling up to at least 1,000 tpa from this site as early as 2026.

This capacity would be sufficient to manufacture about 250,000 electric vehicle batteries for an average-sized car.

In context, this production level would have covered 94% of the LCE required for the 267,000 new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) registered in the UK in 2022.

GEL recently received support from government funding through the Automotive Transformation Fund, enabling the commencement of geothermal lithium production in 2024.

The company has identified one of the most significant concentrations of geothermal lithium in Europe within the initial deep wells at its United Downs power plant site in Redruth.

GEL’s main geothermal operations involve generating consistent geothermal electricity and heat. This process yields a naturally hot geothermal brine, from which lithium can be extracted sustainably in the UK.

By using zero-carbon geothermal power for the extraction, companies like GEL avoid the water-intensive evaporation ponds and the carbon-intensive quarrying and extraction methods employed in large open-cast mines commonly used for lithium production.

Current lithium production in Europe falls significantly short of meeting the anticipated demand for electric vehicles. China currently supplies most of the lithium used in the region.

The timely onshore or EU sourcing of lithium is becoming critical for automotive manufacturers such as VW, Ford, and Jaguar Land Rover.

The ‘rules of origin’ deadline in 2024 stipulates that 60% of battery packs must originate from the UK or Europe. Failure to meet this requirement could result in fines imposed by regulators.

The company holds planning permission for two additional geothermal projects in Cornwall and aims for rapid expansion, targeting over 12,000 tpa in the UK by 2030. 

According to Ryan Law, CEO of Geothermal Engineering Ltd., “We are extremely excited by the high concentration of lithium that we have found in our geothermal wells in Cornwall, as it will enable us to produce meaningful quantities of lithium without damaging the environment.”

“Our ability to produce both zero-carbon lithium and zero-carbon baseload power will provide a foundation for the electric car market to be truly sustainable in the UK. The importance of our projects is now being recognised by the government with recent grant funding awards and secure contracts for the electricity we produce,”, he added.

AIM movers: Positive trial news for Allergy Therapeutics and Horizonte Minerals running out of cash

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Phase III trials of the Allergy Therapeutics (LON: AGY) treatment for grass allergy have met the primary endpoint. There was a highly statistically significant reduction in the combined symptom and medication score compared to placebo. The trial was conducted in the US and Europe. Full analysis of data is continuing. The share price increased 20.8% to 1.8p.

DP Poland (LON: DPP) bounced back 12.5% to 9p after a positive trading update. Third quarter like-for-like sales in Poland were 14.1% higher and they were 34.8% ahead in October. The Croatian business is growing even faster. Singer believes the pizza retailer could move into profit in 2024.

Steel structures supplier Billington (LON: BILN) is continuing its strong momentum and Cavendish has raised its 2023 earnings forecast by one-third to 83.9p/share. Manufacturing efficiencies are combining with higher revenues. Net cash of £16m is expected for the end of the year. The total dividend is still expected to be 20p/share. The 2024 forecast has not been changed. There is a good pipeline, but there is still economic uncertainty. The share price moved ahead by 10.4% to 350p.

Aeorema Communications (LON: AEO) is increasing its dividend by 50% to 3p/share after it announced a one-quarter improvement in pretax profit to £1m on revenues of £20.2m. The strategic communications company has £1.9m in cash. The share price improved 10% to 77p.

Lithium project developer Kodal Minerals (LON: KOD) has updated its mineral resource estimate for the Bougouni spodumene project in Mali. The total resource is 32 million tonnes, up from 21 million tonnes. There is scope for a much greater increase in resource. First production could be at the end of 2024. The share price rose 4.55% to 0.69p.

FALLERS

Nickel project developer Horizonte Minerals (LON: HZM) is reducing construction activities at the Araguaia nickel project while it continues financing discussions. The project has enough working capital until mid-December, although this could be extended into the first quarter of next year. This is when the due diligence of the finance providers should be completed. The share price slumped 44.3% to 10.375p, which is a new low.

Kidney disease diagnostics developer Renalytix (LON: RENX) reported halved third quarter revenues halved to $459,000. Testing volumes were maintained, but there were more that were not billable. A distribution agreement has been secured for the Middle East. Operating costs reduced and there is more cost cutting to come. The net loss fell from $12m to $10.2m. There was $13.9m in the bank at the end of September 2023 and there are discussions on financing until 2026. The share price slipped 30.7% to 26p.

Inspirit Energy Holdings (LON: INSP) has raised £200,000 at 0.01p/share. The share price is down 23.3% to 0.0115p. Nearly one-quarter of the shares are being taken up by directors. The developer of micro combined heat and power boilers requires the cash for working capital.

Trading recommenced in Rockfire Resources (LON: ROCK) shares yesterday afternoon after it said it was not going ahead with the acquisition of Emirates Gold because of UK sanctions on the current owner Paloma Precious. Rockfire Resources still has a 10% stake in Emirates Gold. The share price continues to fall and is 23.3% lower at 0.23p.

Wage growth in the UK eases but remains close to a record level, pound gains against dollar

According to official data, wages in Britain increased at a slightly slower rate in the three months leading up to September, following a previous record pace.

Job vacancies fell, signalling a minor step down in the UK jobs market.

In the third quarter, earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7% higher compared to the same period a year earlier, as shown by the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday.

This number reflects a slight decrease in regular pay growth, down from 7.9% in the last two reports by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The previous rates were the highest recorded since the start of this data series in 2001.

This information is likely to make the Bank of England vigilant about potential inflation pressures.

Following the release of the ONS figures, the pound slightly strengthened against the U.S. dollar.

The Bank of England (BoE) is closely monitoring pay growth to evaluate the remaining inflation pressure in the UK economy, having increased interest rates 14 times consecutively from December 2021 to August this year. Since then, it has maintained rates at the same level.

When considering bonuses, which can be erratic, pay growth decreased from 8.2% in the three months to August to 7.9%.

The BoE has mentioned that pay growth is declining too slowly for it to contemplate reducing interest rates, although informal estimates of wage increases indicate a less steep rise than the official numbers from the ONS.

According to Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, “When adjusted for inflation, it means people are finally feeling the benefit in their pay packets, and with inflation expected to have cooled significantly last month, it is an indication that the worst of the cost-of-living squeeze might be over. But there lies the rub. If households are feeling more confident and have a bit more room in the budget, they are likely to spend that cash, which could prove inflationary.”

Danni Hewson also added that “there’s also the continued tightness in the labour market that could force employers’ hands and push them to keep offering bigger pay packets to attract the staff they need to thrive.”

Vodafone shares drop as the company reports a significant fall in half-year profits

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Vodafone shares dropped on Tuesday after the telecoms group reported a half-year revenue decline of 4.3% to €21.9 billion as several disposals and adverse currency swings hit sales.

Vodafone shares had slipped by 2.4% at the time of writing after rising 1.3% in early trading.

The group’s shares have declined 27% over the past year.

According to Aarin Chierkie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, “revenue and operating profits are heading in the wrong direction for Vodafone, reflecting recent disposals and the structural challenges at hand.”

He states that a lot of Vodafone’s financial resources have been invested in expanding fibre networks and acquiring portions of the 5G spectrum, which is putting pressure on cash flows.

Germany – accounting for 31% of Vodadfone’s service revenue – was a bright spot, reporting quarterly revenue growth of 4.2%, although service revenue for the half year fell.

While Vodafone’s Chief Executive, Margherita Della Valle, stated that the company delivered improved quarterly results in nearly all of its markets, there was weakness in Italy and Spain.

Sales in Spain and Italy continue to fall behind, following Vodafone’s announcement last month of the sale of their Spanish business, Zegona.

Operating profit for the half-year period fell 44.2%.

The company maintained its dividend for the period at 4.5c. Vodafone’s current dividend yield stands at 10%.

However, Chierkie warned this yield may be under threat if the current mediocre performance continues.

“Typically, when companies in this industry have dividend yields above 7%, there is downward pressure on the dividend. Historically, exceptions to the rule have been few and far between, and Vodafone is unlikely to be one of them,” pointed out Aarin Chierkie.

Vodafone’s net debt stands at €36.2 billion, showing a rise of €2.9 billion compared to the first half.

Kodal Minerals’ mineral resource upgrade met with a tepid market reaction

Kodal Minerals shares made minor gains on Tuesday after the company announced a significant increase in the mineral resource at their flagship lithium project.

Kodal Minerals has announced a 40% increase in the mineral resource at its Bougouni lithium project in Mali, Africa. Kodal reported a new resource estimate of 31.9 million tonnes at 1.06% lithium oxide for Bougouni, making the project one of the largest in the world.

Investors may be disappointed with the subdued market reaction, given the revised size of the resources.

The upgrade comes after recent drilling programs expanded resources at the project’s Ngoualana and Boumou deposits, which Kodal aims to develop in two stages.

The company plans first production from Ngoualana through a dense media separation plant, with a later expansion to process ore from Boumou and Sogola-Baoule using a flotation method.

Kodal said the increased resource at Ngoualana has improved confidence in the deposit ahead of initial mine development, with optimisation and design work now underway.

More drilling is imminent to expand resources further and advance additional targets at Bougouni.

Kodal Minerals shares were up only 7% at the time of writing on Tuesday despite a substantial increase in the resource, which will feed through to better project economics.

Kodal recently announced the completion of the funding package with their Chinese partners to develop the project.