FTSE 100 fluctuates as interest rate concerns and poor economic data hampers sentiment

The FTSE 100 swung between gains and losses on Wednesday as investors weighed the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period, poor economic data, and the impact of oil on inflation.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.3% at the time of writing on Wednesday.

“The looming threat of a government shutdown in the US, a weak consumer confidence reading overnight and continued industrial action by the country’s auto workers are creating a mood of instability which, when added to the strong hints that rates will stay elevated for an extended period, is not a happy cocktail for stocks,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

The S&P 500 closed 1.5% lower overnight, one of the worst daily declines of 2023. US stocks started Wednesday’s session firmly higher but the rally faded as the session progressed.

The S&P 500 was 0.2% higher shortly after 3pm on Wednesday. How US stocks perform overnight could have a major impact on European shares tomorrow as global stocks struggle to find a bid.

“Nerves are frayed about the impact of high interest rates in the United States, while fragility in China is showing up once again,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

IMI plc was the FTSE 100’s top riser with a 4% surge while a splattering of miners and natural resources made tepid gains.

Ocado was the top loser shedding 8% as the premium retailer was broke to the lowest levels since being downgraded by Exane last week.

Vodafone shares are worth dipping your toe in

Vodafone shares may start to be attractive in the coming weeks if shares are able to consolidate above the recent support line built around 70p.
With the option of instant access savings providing interest rates up to 5% currently, buying a stock just for its yield is less appealing than it once was.
With that in mind, this FTSE 100 company may be of interest to investors seeking both a 9.7% market-beating yield and the opportunity for long-term capital growth.
Vodafone is a household name and one of the most heavily traded FTSE 100 stocks. Yet, Vodafone shares have been a huge disappointment ...

AIM movers: Saietta gains contract in India and Tasty decline

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Oxford BioDynamics (LON: OBD) continues to rise on the back of the faster than expected completion of the validation of the PSE prostate cancer test in US CLIA laboratories. The test is available in the US and the UK, which will initially send the test to be processed in the US while accreditation is obtained in the UK. This adds to the company’s range of tests. The share price jumped another 31.2% to 35.15p and it has risen 227% over the past five days.

Saietta Group (LON: SED) has confirmed that it will be the eDrive supplier for an Indian light commercial vehicle. The initial order is worth £420,000, while £11.2m should be generated in the first full year of production. This has helped the electric drivetrain systems developer recoup some of the losses from earlier in the week when it warned that no revenues are anticipated from heavy duty vehicles and marine. The results for the year to March 2023 are delayed while impairments of intangible assets are assessed. The share price is one-quarter ahead at 40p.

Crux Asset Management has increased its stake in fabless semiconductor company Sondrel (LON: SND) from 5.88% to 8.05%. The shares appear to have come from Sarasin & Partners, which has reduced its shareholding from 5.08% to 1.67%. The share price improved 10.9% to 16.5p.

TV programmes producer Zinc Media (LON: ZIN) increased interim revenues by 68% to £18.1m and improved gross margins. Full year revenues based on business already secured should be at least £35m. The recent acquisition The Zinc is performing better than expected. Zinc Media is forecast to make a small loss in 2023 before moving to a £1m pre-tax profit in 2024. The share price increased 9.73% to 101.5p.

Recruitment and executive search software provider Dillistone (LON: DSG) reported a higher interim loss yesterday, but the progress towards profit this year has prompted a 10.2% rebound in the share price to 14p. New contracts are being won and annualised recurring revenues are growing.

FALLERS

Although restaurants operator Tasty (LON: TAST) improved like-for-like revenues by 1.4%, cost inflation meant that the pre-tax loss increased from £2.66m to £6.24m. There was also the loss of Covid relief and the provision for poorly performing sites was £4m, compared with £1.6m last time. This led to a cash outflow and net cash reducing to £2.8m. The share price is 25.5% lower at 1.75p. That is the lowest it has been since the end of 2020.

A strong performance in Brazil offset delayed demand in the US for Plant Health Care (LON: PHC) with interim revenues 1% ahead. Management believes that US demand will recover in the second half. A small loss is expected for 2023, based on a stronger second half, and Cavendish still expects a move into profit in 2024. The share price fell 15.3% to 7.35p.

Gold explorer Panthera Resources (LON: PAT) says that its subsidiary’s writ petition has been dismissed by the High Court of Rajasthan. The judgement was based on amendments to mining legislation made in 2021, but the company still believes it has a case relating to a rejected prospecting licence. Panthera Resources has secured litigation funding to pursue a claim in India under the Australia India Bilateral Investment Treaty. The share price declined 11.1% to 10p.

Plastic product supplier Coral Products (LON: CRU) says sales visibility is not as clear as in recent years, but the current year has started well. A strong first quarter was followed by a slightly weaker second quarter. Benefits from the integration of recent acquisitions should start to show through. The share price slipped 8.82% to 15.5p.

Evergrande chairman under police surveillance

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Hui Ka Yan, the chairman and founder of China Evergrande Group, has been put under police control, according to a Bloomberg News report released on Wednesday. 

According to the investigation, it is unclear why exactly the chairman was put under surveillance. However, the report makes it clear that this type of police action in China can not be considered formal detention and does not mean that Hui Ka Yan will be officially detained and charged.

Reuters further reported that a source, someone close to Mr Hui ka Yan, said that the chairman had stopped contacting his staff a couple of days ago. It is not clear as to why. The Reuters industry source further added that the chairman had “become totally inaccessible”. Both sources are not identified by Reuters as they are not allowed to speak to the media. 

Evergarande, the Chinese property development giant, has been permanently present in the news since 2021, due to the company’s inability to pay off its long-pending debt. Evergrand’s offshore debt is reportedly currently at of 31.7 billion USD.

On Monday, Evergrande´s shares dropped by 21.8 per cent, hitting the lowest point since September 5th. 

According to Fern Wang, a senior researcher at KT Capital Group: “hope of any meaningful recovery for the Evergrande debt holders are vanishing”.

Have interest rates peaked? The outlook for sterling, US dollar, and global equities with OANDA’s Craig Erlam

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome back Craig Erlam, Senior Market Strategist at OANDA, for another top-tier Podcast analysing the most important macroeconomic considerations and market outlook.

We discuss:

  • Interest rate outlook
  • Pound Sterling
  • US Dollar
  • Yen
  • S&P 500
  • NASDAQ
  • Oil

We start with a rundown of the recent interest rate decisions and whether the current hiking cycle is over. There is attention paid to when major central banks may start cutting rates.

The conversation naturally moves to the outlook for major currencies including sterling, US dollar, Euro and Yen.

Craig provides deep insight into potential scenarios for both the economy and markets and makes links between crucial inflation data and how it could play out in key markets.

Craig finishes by summarising the markets he sees the most opportunity for major moves going into the end of 2023.

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Oil prices rise as concerns over supply tightness intensify

WTI crude and Brent crude oil prices rose on Wednesday amidst ongoing concerns about tightening supply.

This morning, the WTI crude oil price was up 1.25 per cent (+1.13 USD) at 91.52 USD per barrel. Brent crude price is up by 0.94 per cent (+0.88 USD) to 94.84 per barrel.

On Tuesday, U.S. industry data showed that crude oil stock prices rose by around 1.6 million barrels last week. But the key crude stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub are near 14-month lows.

Combined with the recent OPEC supply cuts, further draws on oil inventories at the Oklahoma storage will exert additional pressure on the oil markets worldwide. 

Saudi Arabia recently cut production by 1 million barrels per day which sparked the most recent rally in oil prices. Russia has also cut 300,000 barrels per day.

A Russian ban on high-quality diesel and other oil products has also supported oil prices. However, there was a slight reprieve on supply constraints after Russia amended their ban on oil exports earlier this week.

Russia softened its gasoline and diesel ban on low quality gasoline and marine fuel on Monday. The exports have already been cleared and accepted by Russian Railway and Transnseft. 

The country’s export ban on high-quality diesel and gasoline remains in place.  An ANZ analyst said on Wednesday that the ban “means upward pressure on crude oil demand from refineries”.

Ithaca Energy shares surge as Rosebank field development approved

Ithican Energy shares surged on Wednesday after the UK government gave the green light for the development of the Rosebank oil field off the Shetland Islands.

Ithaca Energy has a 20% stake in Rosebank, the largest undeveloped oil field in the UK.

Ithaca Energy and Equinor have announced a £3.8 billion investment in the first phase of the Rosebank oil field development northwest of Shetland. The North Sea Transition Authority granted approval on 27 September.

Rosebank holds an estimated 300 million barrels of recoverable oil, with 245 million targeted in Phase 1. The field will use subsea wells tied to a redeployed floating production, storage and offloading (FSPO) vessel. First oil is expected in 2026-2027.

At peak, the £8.1 billion project should create around 1,600 UK construction jobs and 450 long-term UK roles. Major contracts include a £500 million subsea deal for TechnipFMC, a £328 million Odfjell rig contract, and an Altera FPSO charter.

The field lies 130 kilometres northwest of Shetland with estimated recoverable resources of 300 million barrels. Phase 1 targets 245 million barrels.

The FPSO will enable first production in 2026-2027. Rosebank should produce over 21 million standard cubic feet of natural gas daily, comparable to Aberdeen’s usage.

The development is forecast to spur £8.1 billion in investment, 78% within the UK. Around 1,600 construction roles and 450 longer-term UK jobs are expected.

Gilad Myerson, Executive Chairman, Ithaca Energy, commented:

“We are delighted to announce the decision to move forward with the Rosebank development alongside Equinor. Rosebank stands as the largest undeveloped field in the UK, and with the receipt of development consent from the NSTA, we are now poised to embark on a journey that will not only provide critically important domestic energy but also ignite substantial economic impact. The Rosebank project will create thousands of jobs and contribute significantly to securing the UK’s energy needs for many years to come.”

Ithaca Energy shares were 8% higher at the time of writing.

Pendragon bid battle

There is a bid battle for motor dealer Pendragon (LON: PDG) and the latest entrant into the field is AutoNation Inc, which is offering 32p/share. It appears that the deal to sell the core motor business to North American automotive retailer Lithia Motors for £250m and concentrate on the software business may need to be improved if it is to go ahead.
Management is considering the AutoNation Inc offer, as well as a revised offer of 32p/share from Hedin Mobility and PAG International – the original offer of 28p/shares was rejected.
New York Stock Exchange listed AutoNation Inc has more than 300 o...

FTSE 100 shakes off macro concerns as investors put stock picking hats on

The FTSE 100 clawed back early losses on Tuesday as investors shook off more concerns about China and realigned portfolios after a busy period for central banks.

Apart from the FTSE 100’s miners, there were no clear sector gainers or losers on Tuesday suggesting investors had their stock picking hats on as the furore around interest rate decisions died down.

There was a stark contrast in the performance of individual stocks within certain sectors on Tuesday as investors picked out their sector favourites.

For example, Barclays was the FTSE 100’s top riser, gaining 3%, while Lloyds and Natwest fell marginally on the day.

Sainsbury’s was the top faller with losses of 3.5% as Tesco managed to remain positive. Housebuilder Berkeley Group Holdings were out of favour with 2% drop while Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments recorded small gains.

A broker upgrade helped lift Kingfisher 1.2%. Investec analysts turned bullish on Kingfisher upgrading the stocks to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ with a price target of 255p.

While there were some positive individual moves and the index crept higher, lurking in the background were underlying concerns about what was happening in China’s property market and the US credit rating.

“Investors remain understandably wary about China’s troubled property sector and while Wall Street regained some poise overnight, the threat of a government shutdown is creating nervousness across the Atlantic too,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“Moody’s has warned about a possible downgrade for the credit rating of the world’s largest economy, yet another thing for the markets to fret about. And the message of higher rates for longer doesn’t seem to be going away.”

AIM movers: Oxford BioDynamics validation and Anglo Asian Mining profit slump

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Oxford BioDynamics (LON: OBD) says the PSE prostate cancer test has completed validation in US CLIA laboratories earlier than expected. The test is available in the US and the UK, which will initially send the test to be processed in the US while accreditation is obtained in the UK. This adds to the company’s range of tests. The share price jumped 87.8% to 19.625p.

PCI-Pal (LON: PCIP) has defeated the UK patent infringement suit brought by Sycurio. The UK High Court ruled that Sycrio’s patent was invalid and PCI-Pal’s Agent Assist product would not infringe the patent if it were valid. The US case is continuing. This will help to reassure investors who have been cautious about the secure payments company because of the legal uncertainty. The company is on course to move into profit in the year to June 2024. The share price improved 19.4% to 58.5p.

eEnergy Group (LON: EAAS) has won a £3m contract to supply onsite solar energy generation to Tudor Grange Academies Trust, which has already been a client for other energy efficiency services. This is a 10-year agreement. There will be £1.9m recognised in 2023 and 2024. The share price recovered 10.6% to 5.75p.

A positive AGM trading statement from Supreme (LON: SUP) has pushed up the share price of the consumer products supplier by 8.59% to 107.5p. The figures for the year to March 2024 are set to be significantly ahead of expectations. EBITDA guidance is raised by £3.5m to £28m-£30m. The cash position should also be stronger.

FALLERS

Cameroon-focused oil and gas company Bowleven (LON: BLVN) is still awaiting completion of the sale of a 37.5% interest in the Etinde project by New Age. Regulatory approval is required, and it is uncertain if the deal will go ahead and this means greater uncertainty for Bowleven, which has an interest in the project. Bowleven has $1.25m in cash and will need to raise more by the first quarter of 2024. The share price slid 52.8% to 0.85p, because of concerns about a heavily dilutive fundraising.

Anglo Asian Mining (LON: AAZ) interim revenues dipped by 2% to $30.8m due to lower production and gold sales. Gedabek flotation and agitation leaching operations remain suspended. Production costs rose by nearly one-fifth to $1,357/ounce, although the gold price realised was still higher than that. There was cash of $9.6m at the end of June 2023. Production guidance for the full year to 22,000-23,000 ounces of gold and 2,100-2,200 tonnes of copper. There is no interim dividend. The share slumped 42.6% to 37p – the lowest level since 2018.

Video games developer tinyBuild (LON: TBLD) reported a 19% decline in interim revenues to $23.3m and a move into loss. There was a $27.2m impairment charge. Revenues more than halved in the development services division. New games are being developed, but costs are being controlled. Game launches should help second half revenues. The share price dived 35.8% to 37p.

Block Energy (LON: BLOE) says total group production is 684 barrels of oil equivalent/day, including 150 barrels of oil equivalent/day from the WR-34Z development well on the West Rustavi/ Krtsanisi field. The production level from the new well is disappointing. There are plans to drill another development well. The share price dropped 18.3% to 1.225p.