UK House Prices, Cadence Minerals and Tekcapital with Alan Green

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome Alan Green back to the Podcast as we delve into UK markets and a selection of UK stocks.

We discuss:

  • Barratt Developments (LON:BDEV)
  • Tekcapital (LON:TEK)
  • Cadence Minerals (LON:KDNC)

We start with a look at UK house prices and recent data from Nationwide and Halifax. With house prices falling the fastest since 2009, activity in the market is subdued and we explore the impact on Barratt Developments.

Barratt’s completions fell in the last full year but we look forward to how they can benefit from the current downturn and deploy their £1bn cash pile.

Tekcapital has issued numerous positive portfolio company updates and shares have reacted accordingly. We run through the updates, including this morning’s news from MicroSalt.

We finish with a rundown of Cadence Minerals and the latest developments at their Mexcian lithium project.

Tekcapital shares trade at highest level since June after MicroSalt signals opportunity in $500bn bread market

Tekcapital shares hit the highest levels since June on Thursday after announcing their portfolio company MicroSalt had filed a new patent focused on baked goods production.

The new patent entitled “Compositions and methods for reduced leavening time and sodium content in doughs comprising micron-sized salt particles adhered to a carrier,” marks an exciting new bow to the string of MicroSalts technology and commercial opportunities.

The global bread market is estimated to be worth some $500bn and the opportunity for MicroSalt is potentially game-changing.

Not only can MicroSalt’s technology reduce the sodium in bread and baked goods, MicroSalt believes their low-sodium salt technology can reduce baked goods production time and provide producers with cost efficiencies.

Should MicroSalt gain substantial market traction in the dough industry, the revenue opportunities will be immense.

“We are very excited about our new invention which we believe enables the production of baked goods quicker, less expensively, and with reduced sodium. The bread market is extremely compelling for us, with global volumes expected to reach 216.7bn kg by 2028,” said Rick Guiney, CEO of MicroSalt.

“Our ability to not only reduce sodium but to enable a more efficient production process could be a watershed moment in the fight against excess sodium consumption, and we have already seen a high level of interest from one of the world’s largest food companies.”

MicroSalt are currently preparing for an AIM IPO having appointed Zeus Capital as their Nominated Advisor. In a portfolio company update issued in August, Tekcapital said: “MicroSalt Ltd has been making steady progress towards its planned IPO”.

Tekcapital shares were 2% higher at the time of writing after trading at 12.38p earlier in the session – the highest level since June this year.

FTSE 100 falls as Russia and Saudi Arabia cut oil production

Global markets were assessing the implications of another round of oil production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday as oil prices rose and threatened to reignite inflationary pressures, which had started to show signs of abating.

The FTSE 100 fell with European stocks and US equity futures as investors weighed the possibility of higher inflation and more interest rate hikes from major central banks.

“If central bankers thought energy prices were an area they could relax on a bit, then the move higher through June has firmly disabused them of that notion,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“The extension of output cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia through to the end of the year has helped oil prices regain the $90 per barrel mantle for the first time in 2023 and this is likely to add to inflationary pressures. It may force the likes of the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer and this is helping to undercut the more comfortable narrative that the trajectory for rates is on the way to shifting.

“Markets are reacting negatively as we await the next decisions from the Bank of England and Fed later this month. The recent improvement in sentiment was always fragile and the cracks are now firmly on show.”

Sectors negatively aligned to interest rates were most heavily hit on Wednesday. IAG fell as input costs threatened to derail future margin expansion for the airline, and wealth managers suffered on the prospect of generally lower equity markets and erosion of disposable income. abrdn fell 2% while Schroders dipped 1.7%.

Housebuilders were dealt not only the blow of interest rate fears but also the increased pessimism around Barrat Developments’ final results.

Barratt’s completions fell heavily last year, but it was an insight into their current forward sales which was most concerning. Barratt said forward orders were down 31% on this time last year.

Barratt Developments was down 2.1% and Persimmon lost 2.3% of its value.

B&M European Value rose 1.7% a day after snapping up 51 Wilko stores and receiving a buy rating from Shore Capital.

Johnson Matthey was the top riser as the specialist chemicals company continued a rally after Standard Industries upped their stake in the company.

AIM movers: Light Science Technologies enhancing purchase and Global Invacom leaving

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Controlled environmental agriculture technology developer Light Science Technologies (LON: LST) is acquiring Tomtech for £500,000 with an initial cash payment of £75,000. Tomtech, which supplies and installs monitoring and control systems for greenhouses, has £284,000 in cash and there could be additional cash payments if it is above £185,000 on completion. This deal is immediately earnings enhancing – Tomtech reported a pre-tax profit of £79,000 on revenues of £680,000. There is a complementary product range and cross selling opportunities to Tomtech’s 160 customers. The hare price jumped 24.4% to 2.8p, still well below the flotation price of 10p.

STM Group (LON: STM) has reached agreement with PSF Capital GP II over a 67p a share cash bid for the pensions and financial services provider. The bidder is securing a new credit facility to fund the bid. Originally, it was stated the offer could be as high as 70p/share, but the share price shows that investors were not counting on it being that high. This is conditional on STM boss Alan Kentish acquiring the UK SIPP business and those related to the Master Trust. The share price increased 22.2% to 55p, which is still well below the bid price.

Restore (LON: RST) has won a digital contract with the HMRC worth up to £140m for between five and seven years. It commences this month. The shares recovered 18.6% to 213.5p and it is nearly back to the level prior to the profit warning at the beginning of July.  

Genedrive (LON: GDR) has achieved UKCA marking for the CYP2C19 genetic test, which helps to manage the treatment of strokes. There are more than 60 million ischaemic strokes each year globally, including 100,000 in the UK. The share price rose 17.8% to 13.25p.

Paint manufacturer Dulux has been appointed distributor for three years for the fire protection paint ranges of Zenova Group (LON: ZED). There are more than 230 Dulux Decorator Centre stores. The share price rose 4.55% to 5.75p, which continues the recovery since the end of June.

FALLERS

Satellite communications equipment supplier Global Invacom (LON: GINV) is asking shareholder permission to dump the AIM quotation and maintain the one on the Mainboard of the Singapore stock market. There is a lack of liquidity on AIM, and this makes it difficult to raise cash. There is also the cost and management time taken up with being on AIM. A subsidiary has signed a multi-year contract with Eutelsat Communications. The share price slumped 22.7% to 3.75p. The July 2014 placing price was 19.75p. The shares have been trading below that price for more than eight years.

Manufacturing problems hit margins at Surgical Innovations (LON: SUN) and it will fall back into loss this year even though revenues are growing. Year end net cash could halve to £500,000. An operational review should help to improve efficiency and price increases will also help margins recover. The share price fell 11.1% to 1.6p.

Powerhouse Energy (LON: PHE) did not generate any revenues in the first half of 2023 and the operating loss increased from £920,000 to £1.3m. There should be revenues from engineering business Engsolve in the second half. The share price decreased 3.31% to 0.555p.

Kodal Minerals (LON: KOD) has cash of £1.98m in the bank. Pre-construction activities are nearly complete at the Bougani lithium project in Mali. Construction can begin when funding is secured. The share price dipped 1% to 0.505p.

Kodal Minerals shares consolidate after final results released

West Africa-focused mineral exploration company Kodal Minerals announced its final results for the year ending 31 March 2023 on Wednesday, highlighting progress at its key Bougouni Lithium Project in southern Mali.

Kodal Minerals shares dipped slightly after the announcement as traders booked short-term profits after a decent run in shares over the past week.

Today’s announcement offered very little new information and Kodal Minerals shares will still be dictated by progress in the development of their Bougouni Lithium Project.

The company has agreed a US$117.75 million funding package with China’s Hainan Mining to fully finance the development of the Bougouni Project and bring it into production.

Of the total funds, US$65 million will go towards constructing a Dense Media Separation (DMS) plant at Bougouni targeting first lithium production next year.

The low-cost DMS project has an estimated capital cost of US$65 million and is forecast to generate over US$1 billion in revenue within four years of operation, with payback coming within two months.

Initial production from the 4-year mine life project is projected at over 130,000 tonnes per annum of spodumene concentrate containing lithium.

Additional funds from Hainan will support resource expansion and a future Phase 2 expansion to increase spodumene concentrate production above 300,000tpa.

The Bougouni Lithium Project currently has a JORC compliant resource of 21Mt at 1.11% Li2O lithium oxide.

Kodal has all required permits in place and could begin project development and construction once the financing package with Hainan is completed, for which a long stop date has been set of 30 September 2023.

The long stop date was recently extended to compensate for administrative delays and Hainan completed a pre-payment of US$3.5M in August to fund engineering work.

genedrive announces stroke testing regulatory milestone, shares surge

genedrive has achieved a key regulatory milestone that will enable its new pharmacogenomic test to be introduced in the NHS to help manage treatment for stroke patients.

The UK-based point of care molecular diagnostics company announced has secured UKCA marking registration for its Genedrive CYP2C19 System, a rapid genetic test that can identify how patients will respond to the common anti-platelet drug clopidogrel that is used to help prevent secondary strokes.

genedrive shares were 17% higher on Wednesday after announcing the UKCA marking registration.

The new point of care test only requires a simple cheek swab and can provide clinicians with clinically actionable results in about one hour, allowing more effective and personalized prescription of treatment for individual stroke patients.

Poor response to clopidogrel affects up to 30% of stroke patients in the general population and up to 50% in certain ethnic groups, leading to worse health outcomes. The new rapid genetic test aims to address this issue.

In draft guidance issued in May, the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended that stroke patients should undergo CYP2C19 genetic testing before treatment. This has paved the way for adoption of genedrive’s pharmacogenomic test in the NHS.

Achieving UKCA marking now allows genedrive to start commercialising the test in the UK. The company will initially sell the test through its direct sales team.

The key next steps are to complete a UK clinical evaluation programme and secure CE marking in 2024 to enable wider commercialization in the EU.

Barratt Developments shares fall as forward sales plummet after soft 2023FY

Barratt Developments shares fell on Wednesday after announcing annual results which confirmed a year of slowing completions in 2023FY which has continued into the first quarter on 2024FY.

Barratt’s 2023FY completions fell 3.9% compared to the prior full year while operating margins fell to 16.2% from 20.0%.

Rising costs and falling sale prices have squeezed profitability and adjusted profit before tax fell 16% to £884m.

Barratt Developments shares were down 2% to 424p at the time of writing on Wednesday.

“Lower home completions combined with elevated build cost inflation have taken their toll on Barratt Developments and its peers. New home buyers are clearly exercising greater caution, and the outlook for the coming months is highly uncertain,” said Charlie Huggins, Manager of the ‘Quality Shares Portfolio’ at Wealth Club.

“Mortgage rates have increased significantly over the past year and have been highly volatile from one week to the next, making it very difficult for home buyers to plan their next move. First time buyers have experienced even greater pressure, given the limited availability of high loan to value mortgages and the end of the Help to Buy scheme in England.”

Although sales volumes are slowing and the economic backdrop is becoming increasingly uncertain, Barratt Developments are making progress in controlling costs and has a large cash pile to see them through the downturn.

“It’s not all doom and gloom,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Build cost inflation looks set to ease to mid single-digits this year. And a sharp reduction in land spend last year more than offset the share buyback programme, helping to keep Barratt’s net cash position broadly flat at a mighty £1.1bn. That provides plenty of flexibility to smooth out any future bumps in the road.”

Analysts at Third Bridge allude to their cash position and how this is spent as being an integral element in the Barratt’s medium term outlook.

“The big question for Barratt is how it will deploy its cash war chest. Decisions on what to deploy and where to save are going to define its medium term future,” said Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge.

Some of this cash will be used to fund Barratt’s 23.5 pence per share final dividend which be paid to shareholders on the register 29th September.

To help support dividend payouts going forward, Barratt’s is adjusting their dividend policy to maintain a dividend cover of 1.75x, a reduction of 2x covered.

Tekcapital shares gain after announcing new Guident EV regenerative shock absorber subsidiary

Tekcapital has taken another step forward in creating shareholder value from its portfolio companies with the establishment of a new subsidiary to hold Guident’s regenerative shock absorber technology.

Guident has recently confirmed their regenerative shock absorber technology proof of concept through paid testing with a Teir-1 tire company.

Spinning out the technology into a new subsidiary, ReVive Energy Solutions, will allow Guident to unlock the technology’s value in a stand-alone entity separate from their autonomous vehicle safety systems.

The move will enable Guident to focus its shock absorber technology on the electric vehicle market while continuing to develop safety systems for autonomous vehicles.

Tekcapital shares were 3% higher at the time of writing.

Regenerative shock absorbers harness natural energy generated from motion and vibration to help extended the range of electric vehicles.

“In light of our recent successes in collaboration with various independent test authorities, we are thrilled to announce the integration of RSA technology into a new dedicated subsidiary named ReVive Energy Solutions, ltd,” said Harald Braun, CEO & Chairman of Guident.

“This strategic move allows us to sharpen our focus on a precision-targeted go-to-market strategy for this what we believe is a revolutionary product. Most commercially available electric vehicles have regenerative braking.

“We believe that in the near future, most commercial electric vehicles will also have regenerative shock absorbers. This could extend the range between charges and provide power to active suspension to improve ride characteristics and comfort. Our commitment to innovation and sustainability drives us forward, and we believe this marks a significant milestone in our mission to reshape the future of EV technology.”

Strip Tinning set to win electric vehicle contracts

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Flexible automotive connectors supplier Strip Tinning (LON: STG) had a poor first year on AIM, but there are signs that it is on course to recover. There are also opportunities to win contracts for cell contact systems for electric vehicles, which could eventually sharply increase revenues. There could be a contract announcement in the next few weeks.  

The top 15 potential customers have possible total annualised sales value of £88m. There are already sample sales to potential customers.

Strip Tinning lost an electric vehicles contract soon after joining AIM in February 2022. This dispute appears to be near settlement, but it held back the progress of the business. There were also unprofitable contracts in the automotive glazing business.

In the six months to June 2023, revenues improved from £4.7m to £5.6m, while the underlying loss was reduced from £2.5m to £798,000. That was partly due to other income of £790,000, including a £741,000 government grant.  

EV revenues were flat, and the growth came from the automotive glazing business thanks to price rises. Volumes are falling as loss-making business is shed and the second half should mark the bottom. Production efficiency has improved.

A new production line is being installed ahead of new contracts for the EV business. This has capacity for 180,000 units. The line can be used for glazing products while EV business builds up.

There is a new invoice discounting facility of £1.5m and that should help to finance growth. If multiple new contracts are won, then there could be a requirement for additional working capital.

Singer forecasts a dip in 2023 revenues from £10.2m to £9.4m, but the loss should reduce from £3.3m to £1.4m. Next year revenues are expected to recover to £11.3m and the loss could fall to £500,000. Net debt is expected to be £3.5m at the end of the year.

The loss is partly a reflection of investment ahead of potential contract wins. New EV contracts will not make much of a contribution in the short-term, but they could be highly significant when the vehicles are commercially launched.

The initial placing price was 185p. The share price fell 3.7% to 65p on the results. It could recover if a lucrative EV order is secured.

New AIM admission: Tribe Technologies mines market

Tribe Technology develops autonomous drilling rigs and initial sales activity is focused on tier one mining companies. This technology removes the need for employees at the rig which improves health and safety.
This is an early-stage company with minimal revenues and making losses, but management says that there are orders worth more than £10.5m. Prior to the flotation, an agreement with Anglo American was announced for the deployment of a TTDS GC 700 RC drill rig. A deposit of £1.2m has been received.
Most of the money raised will go towards working capital to enable the orders to be fulfille...