UK housebuilders, Greatland Gold, and a Cadence Minerals’ Lithium Update with Alan Green

The UK Investor Magazine is joined by Alan Green for a deep dive into a selection of UK equities and key market themes.

We start by looking at recent macroeconomic developments and what they mean for markets. The FTSE 100 has slipped on debt ceiling fears and was staging a minor relief rally on news the House of Representatives had approved a deal.

We look at UK house prices and the implications for FTSE 100 housebuilders.

Greatland Gold has issued updates on funding and joint ventures this week. Alan provides an overview and explores the significance for the company.

Alan continues with a rundown of developments at Cadence Minerals’ Amapa iron ore project and investment in Evergreen Lithium.

We finish with an update on Truspine.

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AIM movers: Westminster Security nears breakeven and ex-dividends

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Security services provider Westminster Group (LON: WSG) reported a 35% increase in revenues to £9.5m with the fastest growth in the technology division. The company almost broke even.  This year has started with more than £5m of annual recurring revenues. First quarter trading is ahead of budget. Timing of new projects is uncertain, particularly the contract in the DRC. The share price rose 39.1% to 1.6p.

Edenville Energy (LON: EDL) is raising £1.47m at 5p a share from Q Global Commodities Group, which will take its stake to 29.95%, and Gathoni Muchai Investments, which will own 20.1%. The share price jumped 34.1% to 7.375p. The two shareholders will also receive warrants exercisable at 35p until 25 May 2024. The cash will fund reviews of potential new and strategically complimentary projects in Africa. Jason Brewer of Gathoni Muchai Investments has been appointed as an executive director.

Blue Star Capital (LON: BLU) investee company SatoshiPay has been incubating blockchain company Pendulum, which bridges the Stellar and Polkadot networks via Spacewalk, now live on Amplitude. The focus is advancing foreign exchange trading into blockchain. Spacewalk could be expanded to cover other networks. Blue Star Capital owns 27.9% of SatoshiPay, which owns 5.5% of Pendulum. The Blue Star Capital share price is 5.56% higher at 0.19p.

First quarter revenues of Duke Royalty (LON: DUKE) were at a record level. Total cash revenues are around £7.5m, including the buyout premium for investee company Instor. The 0.7p a share quarterly dividend is covered by free cash flow. Net assets could be more than £155m by the end of September 2023. The share price is 4.96% higher at 31.75p, which values the royalty company at £126.3m. The forecast yield is 9.3%.

The two biggest fallers are paying one-off dividends and have gone ex-dividend today Amur Minerals Corporation (LON: AMC) is paying a special dividend of 1.8p a share and the share price fell 86.4% to 0.25p. Enwell Energy (LON: ENW) is paying a special dividend of 15p a share declined by 49.9% to 15.525p.

Quantum Blockchain Technologies (LON: QBT) has raised £1m at 1.4p a share, while the share price slipped 22.1% to 1.5p. This fund development of bitcoin mining machine learning algorithms and software as well as funding the Sipiem litigation.

Clontarf Energy (LON: CLON) has raised £350,000 at 0.08p a share and this will finance lithium projects in Bolivia as well as petroleum projects in Ghana and Australia. The share price dipped 9.76% to 0.0925p.

Grafenia (LON: GRA) has not received the adjusted deferred consideration of £514,000 payable on the sale of Works Manchester. Grafenia is considering raising additional funding to fund its strategy of acquiring software businesses. The share price declined 9.52% to 9.5p.

Ex-dividends

Amur Minerals Corporation (LON: AMC) is paying a special dividend of 1.8p a share and the share price fell 1.59p to 0.25p.

Cerillion (LON: CER) is paying an interim dividend of 3.3p a share and the share price slipped 5p to 1295p.

Enwell Energy (LON: ENW) is paying a special dividend of 15p a share and the share price declined by 15.475p to 15.525p.

Gamma Communications (LON: GAMA) is paying a final dividend of 10p a share and the share price is 17p lower at 1135p.

Keywords Studios (LON: KWS) is paying a final dividend of 1.6p a share and the share price rose 17.5p to 1962.5p.

Likewise (LON: LIKE) is paying a final dividend of 0.2p a share and the share price improved by 0.5p to 25p.

Nexus Infrastructure (LON: NEXS) is paying an interim dividend of 1p a share and the share price fell 1p to 169p.

Origin Enterprises (LON: OGN) is paying an interim dividend of 3.15 eurocents a share and the share price slumped 20 eurocents to €3.45.

Spectra Systems Corp (LON: SPSC) is paying a final dividend of 11.5 cents a share and the share price fell 5p to 165p.

Titon Holdings (LON: TON) is paying an interim dividend of 0.5p a share and the share price is unchanged at 75p.

Yu Group (LON: YU.) is paying a final dividend of 3p a share and the share price rose 32p to 610p.

BP shares: fund manager thinking on the oil major

BP shares have surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, providing investors with bumper dividends and buybacks. The BP share price hit the highest levels since the beginning of the pandemic in February.
The favourable conditions for BP over the past year have led to the oil major's inclusion in the top holdings of UK equity portfolios.
In this article, we explore abrdn, JP Morgan and Temple Bar fund managers' thoughts on BP and whether they have been buying, selling or holding the stock recently.
Managers' commentary also includes insight into their other energy holdings and the wider se...

FTSE 100 dips on China concerns, B&M jumps

The FTSE 100 felt the strains on the Chinese economy on Wednesday as the index dipped following news that Chinese manufacturing activity contracted faster than expected.

China Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8, lower than the 49.4 consensus. A reading below 50 signifies a contraction.

“Growth slowdown fears have accelerated as the latest data from China shows a faltering recovery, knocking back sentiment on markets,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Investors have been unnerved by the snapshot showing the Chinese manufacturing sector contracted again in May, while activity across services also slowed for the fourth month in a row. Far from being the powerhouse which will offset America’s slowdown, China’s economic recovery from the pandemic is looking more precarious.”

The FTSE 100 was down 0.85% at the time of writing. The index had nearly recovered early morning losses before the sellers reappeared in afternoon trade.

FTSE 100 movers

B&M European Value was the FTSE 100’s top riser after the budget retailer said they were carrying ‘excellent profitable momentum’ into 2024FY.

B&M’s revenues were 30.7% ahead of pre-pandemic FY20 levels on a constant currency basis in 2023FY and cash generated from operation jumped 44.8% to £866m.

B&M shares were 7% higher at the time of writing.

“During Covid B&M benefited as one of a handful of retailers which were able to stay open and operate. Its performance during this period therefore comes with an asterisk attached, which is why investors will be particularly pleased to see its value credentials paying off in a more normal retail environment,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“In theory B&M should be well placed against a backdrop where households are really watching their pennies and that is largely reflected in this latest trading update. The company is also generating lots of cash which it can return to shareholders.

Prudential shares were down over 5% after chief financial officer James Turner resigned amid a code of conduct breach. Turner is the 26th CFO of an FTSE 100 firm to step down this year.

Ocado was down 5% as the premium retailer looked set to be demoted from the FTSE 100.

Challenger Energy Group shares soar on monster Uruguay potential

Challenger Energy Group shares jumped on Wednesday as the oil explorer said a recent study of its Uruguay assets estimates there could be up to 4.9 billion barrels of recoverable oil in place. This makes the asset a world-class project.

Listen to the recent UK Investor Magazine Podcast with Challenger Energy Group here.

On a recent Podcast with UK Investor Magazine, CEO Eytan Uliel alluded to the potential of the AREA OFF-1 prospects. Today’s announcement confirms it.

Challenger’s AREA OFF-1 asset consists of three prospects; Teru Teru, Anapero and Lenteja.

These three prospects are estimated to hold a total Estimated Ultimate Recoverable resource of circa 2.0 billion BBOE (Pmean, unrisked, and over 4.9 BBOE in an upside case.

The world-class nature of the asset has attracted the interest of oil majors, and Challenger said their target is to complete a farm-out by the end of the year.

“We continue to be encouraged by the opportunity that our AREA OFF-1 licence in Uruguay represents. Our technical work highlights how AREA OFF-1 is clearly world class acreage with massive resource potential, in what has become a global exploration hotspot,” said Eytan Uliel, Chief Executive Officer of Challenger Energy.

“To capitalise on this, I can confirm that a farm-out process has now commenced, with very strong initial indications of interest received from multiple major oil companies. Our target is to complete a farm-out transaction by year end, so that we can continue to rapidly progress work on the block, and thereby generate value for shareholders.”

Challenger Energy Group shares were 10% higher at the time of writing and had been considerably higher before traders booked profits.

XTB asks Microsoft’s AI chatbot which stocks to invest in

XTB researchers have taken to Microsoft’s AI chatbot, Bard, for investment ideas. XTB set out to judge how AI can help investors when selecting stocks and asked Bard directly which stocks would be good to invest in.

These are the results.

When asked for 5 stocks in general to invest in, its recommendations were: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA).

When asked for 5 lesser known stocks to invest in, its recommendations were: Acacia Communications (ACIA), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Marqeta (MQ), Roblox Corporation (RBLX) and Snowflake Computing (SNOW).

These are fairly generic answers and there was no analysis of why these stocks should be selected. AI chatbots use vast data sets to provide information and the answers were likely based on the analysis of market commentary, as opposed to performing financial analysis on the stocks.

A thorough financial analysis of companies may be an AI development we see in future.

XTB also asked Bard tips for novice investors. Again, the answers were very generic and can be found through a quick Google search:

  1. Set your goals. What are you hoping to achieve with your investments? Are you saving for retirement, a down payment on a house, or something else? Once you know your goals, you can start to develop a strategy to reach them.
  2. Do your research. Before you invest in anything, it’s important to learn as much as you can about it. Read financial news, research different investment options, and talk to a financial advisor if you need help.
  3. Start small. There’s no need to invest a lot of money right away. Start with a small amount that you’re comfortable with and gradually increase your investment over time.
  4. Be patient. Investing is a long-term game. Don’t expect to get rich quick. Invest for the long term and you’ll be more likely to reach your financial goals.
  5. Diversify your portfolio. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your money across different investments to reduce your risk.

Deutsche Bank and abrdn favour this FTSE 350 housebuilder

The UK housebuilding sector is suffering from higher mortgage rates and the cost of living crisis. UK house prices have fallen over the past year but have shown recent signs of stabilisation.
The FTSE 350 Home Construction sector is down 35% over the past three years as investors sold housebuilding shares ahead of a downturn in activity. There is now an argument softer housing activity is largely priced in.
abrdn fund managers and equity analysts at Deutsche Bank favour this FTSE 350 housebuilder with the inclusion in an abrdn equity income portfolio and a recent price target increase by Deu...

AIM movers: Yu Group trading ahead of expectations and no bid for Purplebricks

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Energy supplier Yu Group (LON: YU.) is trading well above expectations and Liberum has upgraded its earnings expectations by 42% to 61.1p a share – double the previous year. That is similar to the previous 2024 forecast which has been upgraded by 10% to 68.4p a share. Net cash could reach £34.9m by the end of 2023. The share price jumped 26.1% to 580p.

Lithium project developer Savannah Resources (LON: SAV) has received a positive declaration of environmental impact from the Portuguese authorities for the Barroso lithium project. Savannah Resources has agreed to the conditions issued. A new scoping study should be done in the second half. The share price moved ahead by 19.7% to 4.4p.

Oil and gas company Challenger Energy Group (LON: CEG) has updated the market on its OFF-1 licence offshore of Uruguay and the related prospects. The prospective recoverable resources for three prospects based on the mean have been increased to 1,986mmbls. A discovery of 150-200mmbls is required to be economic. Each of the three prospects has the potential for this. Cash generated from producing wells in Trinidad can cover ongoing costs. The share price increased 13.5% to 0.105p.

Shares in Premier Premier African Minerals (LON: PREM) have recovered following yesterday’s premium article on UK Investor Magazine: Was Premier African Minerals’ share price destruction justified? – UK Investor Magazine. The share price recovered 8.77% to 0.62p.

Offshore services provider Tekmar Group (LON: TGP) has won a new contract for the Generation 10 cable protection system worth more than £5m. The project will be delivered in 2024. The share price edged up 8.33% to 1.95p.

Lecram Holdings does not intend to make a bid for Purplebricks (LON: PURP), so the sale of the business and assets to Strike Ltd is set to go ahead if it receives shareholder approval. The general meeting is on 2 June. The share price fell 20.6% to 0.5p, which values the company at £1.9m. The cash remaining after costs, which could be £2m, will be distributed to shareholders, but that won’t happen until early next year.

Antibody profiling company Oncimmune (LON: ONC) reported a cash outflow from operations of £2.32m in the six months to February 2023. This is prior to the recent sale of the IVD EarlyCDT Lung blood test antibody technology to US biotech Freenome for £13m. That will lower ongoing costs. The share price declined by 21.8% to 28.7p.

Kefi Gold and Copper (LON: KEFI) has raised £6.44m at 0.7p a share, while the share price slipped 19.7% to 0.671p. This cash will help to complete the project financing for the Tulu Kapi gold project and the share of the cost of the exploration programme in Saudi Arabia.   

There has been profit taking at Empire Metals (LON: EEE) following yesterday’s announcement showing a giant-scale hydrothermal titanium and copper mineral system at its Pitfield project in Western Australia. The maiden drilling programme indicated a metal-rich 40km by 8km system with more to be drilled. The share price fell 13.9% to 2.625p, which is still well above the 1.85p the share price closed at on Friday.

Consider the abrdn Equity Income Trust for a heavy-hitting income

This UK-focused equity income trust packs a punch. The trust contains all the heavy-hitting cyclical FTSE 100 dividend income payers you’d expect from a portfolio that outstrips the benchmark in terms of yield.

With a 7.15% yield, the abrdn Equity Income Trust should be considered by those seeking a substantial dividend while willing to accept the risk and benefits associated with high-beta equities.

The high yield is achieved through a portfolio of predominately UK stocks. The portfolio has an 82% weighting towards UK equities. abrdn identifies 57% of the portfolio as cyclical and remaining sensitive or defensive.

Financial services account for 35% of the portfolio, and the trust enjoys steadily increasing dividends from FTSE 100 banks NatWest and Barclays, both of whom have also announced share buybacks. The Natwest holding was added increased recently.

The trust is harnessing the higher energy price environment with top holdings, including Shell, BP and SSE. Managers recently took the opportunity to take profits in BP while increasing their holdings in Diversified Energy via a placing.

Ithica Energy’s strong cash generation is seen as an opportunity by the trust – managers see the potential for attractive dividends from the company.

In their half-year report issued 26th May, abrdn managers reflected on a note of caution in UK equities. Still, they were confident in the income generation capabilities of the portfolio and were positive on current valuations:

“The fluctuating macro landscape has created some sharp swings in performance within the UK equity market during the period. Although markets went up during the six months, there was an underlying tone of caution, as reflected in the continued out-performance of large cap stocks. This was largely driven by the ever-present fear that recession could be imminent. Many commentators pointed to the inversion in the yield curve (where long- dated bond yields fall below short-dated bond yields) as a forward-looking indicator that recession is likely at some point in the next two years.

“Against this uncertain backdrop, our approach remains to stay focused on companies that have the ability to generate strong cash flows and pay these cash flows out in the form of dividends. We believe that many companies with these characteristics have been overlooked by the wider market in recent years, resulting in valuation opportunities.”

The trust is clearly well thought of by the market with a 0.3% premium compared to a UK equity income investment trust sector dominated by trusts trading at deep discounts.

The trust’s share price has returned a 13.72% annualised return over the past three years.

FTSE 100 declines as debt ceiling nervousness persists

The FTSE 100 was on the back foot on Tuesday as fears about the US debt ceiling lingered. Weaker oil prices dragged the index, with BP and Shell falling.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.8% at the time of writing.

“A deal may have been struck on the debt ceiling, but it’s not fully calmed nervousness on financial markets. Limits on spending are being imposed just as America looks set to head towards recession, which could make it harder for growth to snap back,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Clamour from dissenting voices on both sides of the political divide are rising, ahead of a crucial Congressional vote later today. Nevertheless, the US does appear to be inching towards Budget agreement, although it’s likely to take a good deal of wrangling this week before it’s passed.”

Major US indices outperformed Europe with help from tech stocks and Tesla.

Nvidia was again pushing higher as the hype around AI provided continued support for the stock. Last week, the chipmaker revealed strong revenue forecasts directly for the adoption of AI. 

Tesla shares were higher on hopes the EV maker would see further growth in China as Elon Musk met with Chinese officials.

FTSE 100 movers

FTSE 100 Oil majors were a large drag on the index as oil prices dipped on growth fears. BP and Shell were down 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively.

Unilever shares were lower as key staff departed ahead of the new CEO’s arrival. The CFO and marketing head will soon be clearing their desks. Unilever shares were 2.9% down at the time of writing.

Rolls Royce was off by 2.3% after reports India launched criminal proceedings against BAE Systems and Rolls Royce for the procurement of fighter jets.