Logistics: looking through short-term volatility

Troels Andersen, Fund Manager, abrdn European Logistics Income plc

It has been a tough period for commercial real estate, with interest rates rising and capital values falling. The logistics sector has not been immune to this change and even though it continues to see low voids, strong demand and robust rental pricing, sentiment has been damaged.

Despite this, it’s worth noting that logistics assets have been significantly more resilient than some other real estate sectors, such as offices and retail. As such, the structural growth story for logistics remains intact and the outlook for rental growth is encouraging.

The weakest areas within the wider logistics market have been those with a lot of liquidity but speculative capital has now left these markets and pricing has become more favourable.

Structural strength

Despite macro-economic headwinds, the long-term structural argument for the logistics sector is still strong. There is a chronic shortage of supply and the continued growth of e-commerce has created significant demand for urban logistics, where tenants need to be as close to consumers as possible.

The sector is also benefiting from companies reconfiguring supply chains and near-shoring production. Rising geopolitical tensions and the supply chain vulnerabilities exacerbated by the pandemic have encouraged companies to bring production closer to home and hold higher inventories, a trend we are seeing across all markets.

The strength of these trends is shown by continued demand for logistics assets even amid the recent weakness in the European economy. According to Savills’ report on the European logistics market this March, take-up reached nearly 38 million sq m in 2022, a total second only to 2021’s series high of 40.2 million sq m and 18% higher than the five-year average.

The overall vacancy rate across Europe is low at between 2% and 3%. For example, in abrdn European Logistics Income’s portfolio, we only have one void across our 27 assets. Higher borrowing costs are making it more difficult to bring new supply onto the market and while there have been short-term declines in capital values, the lack of supply is likely to put a floor under further price falls.

Buoyant rents

The lack of supply also means that rental prices remain robust. Logistics rents increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022, but even higher rental growth was recorded in the most supply -constrained parts of the market. 

European logistics rents also have a strong link to inflation. Around two-thirds of the abrdn European Logistics Income tenant portfolio has no cap on Consumer Prices Index (CPI) linkage, enabling rents to rise annually in line with inflation. The remainder also rises with inflation, but to a lesser extent. This further supports rental growth in the year ahead and helps offset yield expansion.

Trust positioning

Logistics doesn’t face the challenges of other parts of the commercial property market, such as the office market or high street retail. Its long-term investment credentials are robust. However, it still requires careful navigation and effective diversification.

As trust managers, we can’t influence pricing in the sector but we can influence what happens on the ground, working hard on lease renewals and unlocking additional rental value. We can ensure we have a balanced portfolio and that our tenant profile is robust.

In the longer-term, we are hopeful that more speculative capital has moved out of the sector. We are seeing new institutional investors taking an interest across Europe and the Middle East, with private equity capital waiting on the sidelines. These are long-term traditional real estate investors who are putting capital to work and bringing stability to the sector.  

Logistics is a core part of a commercial property portfolio which is supported by the tailwinds of record-low vacancies and structural demand drivers. Even if capital values are volatile in a rising rate environment, rental growth is expected to retain momentum in most European logistics hotspots.

Important information

Risk factors you should consider prior to investing:

  • The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may get back less than the amount invested.
  • Past performance is not a guide to future results.
  • Investment companies can borrow money in order to enhance investment returns. This is known as ‘gearing’ or ‘leverage’.
  • However, the use of gearing can result in share prices being more volatile and subject to sudden or large falls in value. Where permitted an investment company may invest in other investment companies that utilise gearing which will exaggerate market movements, both up and down.
  • There is no guarantee that the market price of the Company’s shares will fully reflect its underlying Net Asset Value.
  • As with all stock exchange investments the value of the Company’s shares purchased will immediately fall by the difference between the buying and selling prices, the bid-offer spread. If trading volumes fall, the bid-offer spread can widen.
  • Investing globally can bring additional returns and diversify risk. However, currency exchange rate fluctuations may have a positive or negative impact on the value of your investment.
  • The Company may hold a limited number of investments. If one of these investments declines in value this can have a greater impact on the fund’s value than if it held a larger number of investments.
  • Property values are a matter of the valuers’ opinions and can go up and down. There is no guarantee that property values, or rental income from them, will increase so you may not get back the full amount invested.
  • Property investments are relatively illiquid compared to bonds and equities and can take a significant length of time to sell and buy.
  • The Company invests in a specialist sector and it will not perform in line with funds that have a broader investment policy.
  • Derivatives may be used, subject to restrictions set out for the Company, for efficient portfolio management in order to manage risk. The market in derivatives can be volatile and there is a higher than average risk of loss.

Other important information:

Issued by abrdn Fund Managers Limited, registered in England and Wales (740118) at 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4AG. abrdn Investments Limited, registered in Scotland (No. 108419), 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1XL. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK.

Find out more at www.eurologisticsincome.co.uk or by registering for updates. You can also follow us on social media: Twitter and LinkedIn.

FTSE 100 tanks on interest rate fears after hotter-than-expected inflation

The FTSE 100 tanked Wednesday as UK inflation data came in hotter than expected, sparking a selloff in bonds and equities.

Although inflation fell materially in the year to April, the 8.7% increase in prices was significantly higher than economists’ estimates of 8.2%.

The Bank of England will likely have to hike rates more than once if inflation remains elevated. Markets are now pricing that UK interest rates will rise to 5.5%.

Early signs markets were piling pressure on the Bank of England came from bond markets where yields on short-dated UK government bonds jumped over 20 bps in early trade on Wednesday.

“Bond markets took one look at the latest inflation figures and took the view that interest rates are going to keep going up. The UK 10-year Gilt rate jumped to 4.3% on the news, the highest level since last October and significantly ahead of the 3% level seen only three months ago,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Sticky inflationary pressures, particularly in food, will strengthen the argument for the Bank of England to raise rates again. That will bring more pain to companies and consumers as the cost of servicing borrowings becomes more expensive.”

The pound soared to 1.24721 against the dollar before falling back. The hot inflation read sparked a selloff in UK-facing equities, and very few FTSE 100 stocks were gaining on Wednesday.

The FTSE 100 was down 2.1% at the time of writing.

FTSE 100 Movers

In recent months, stocks highly exposed to interest rates and consumer spending have made steady gains on hopes the BoE were nearly finished hiking rates.

These hopes were dashed today, and sectors reliant on the UK economy were heavily hit.

Persimmon led the housebuilding sector lower with sharp losses in Taylor Wimpey, Barratt Developments and Berkeley Group Holdings. Persimmon was the FTSE 100’s worst performer at the time of writing, down over 5% and approaching the lowest levels of 2023.

Gyrations in the bond market served as a reminder of the volatility after Truss’s doomed budget last, and asset managers and insurance companies fell heavily on Wednesday.

Aviva, Legal & General, Prudential and Pheonix Group Holding were among the top fallers.

Ocado was the FTSE 100’s top riser, up over 7%, despite indications the food retail and technology company would be demoted to the FTSE 250. According to data from the FCA, Ocado is one of the most heavily shorted stocks by funds, and today’s move may be a round of short covering.

Broker ups its ‘fair value’ for this UK industrial company to 50% higher than last night’s price

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Tekcapital’s Guident to co-host US National Autonomous Vehicle Day

Tekcapital’s Guident will co-host the National Autonomous Vehicle Day event on May 31 at the Jacksonville Transportation Authority’s Test & Learn Facility.

The event will bring together investors, officials and industry leaders to discuss, debate and showcase the latest in autonomous vehicle technology.

Key themes for the event will be increased safety, reduced traffic congestion and improved accessibility.

“Guident takes great pride in co-sponsoring this year’s National Autonomous Vehicle Day alongside JTA in Jacksonville,” saidHarald J. Braun, Guident’s Executive Chairman.

“The convergence of industry leaders at this event holds immense significance as we collaborate to forge an ecosystem that revolutionizes public transportation for the better. Together, we are spearheading the creation of a transformative industry, paving the way for an enhanced future of autonomous urban mobility.”

Guident will soon deploy its Remote Monitoring and Control Center solution with the Jacksonville Transportation Authority for a closed route shuttle service. Guident is developing a similar solution for the Boca Raton Innovation Campus in Florida.

AIM movers: Enwell Energy dividend boost

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Enwell Energy (LON: ENW) announced a 15p a share dividend. That sparked a 34.9% rise in the share price to 20.95p, which values the company at £67.2m. There was $88.7m in the bank at the end of 2022, including $6.9m in Ukrainian currency. This is the first good news for a while the Ukraine-focused oil and gas company is trying to find a UK auditor and two production licences were suspended earlier this month – they contribute 12% of production.

Bonhill (LON: BONH) has found a buyer for its loss-making US financial publishing business. KM Business Information US is paying $4.1m. A previous buyer tried to reduce the $6.5m original offer for the business. The share price jumped 21.1% to 5.75p.

Active Energy Group (LON: AEG) says that permission for the construction and operation of a CoalSwitch biomass fuel manufacturing facility at Player Design Inc’s site in Maine. This is conditional on certain data being provided within six months. Production of CoalSwitch pellets could start in the third quarter of 2023. There is further interest in licences from other potential US partners. The share price improved 15.7% to 5.15p.

SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd (LON: SAE) says Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners has requested to leas land at the company’s Uskmouth energy park in Wales for use for a battery storage project. That is expected to commence commercial operations in 2024. The share price rose 11.9% to 1.175p.

Maritime data company Windward (LON: WNWD) has launched Ocean Freight Visibility, which is a shipments analysis dashboard. Even so, the share price fell 8.89% to 41p.

Industrial lasers manufacturer 600 Group (LON: SIXH) made an operating loss of $2.4m in the year to March 2023. That is the result of several unprofitable contracts because the effect of inflation had not been taken into account. The order book is worth $7.8m. Tangible net assets are $11m. The share price is 7.25% lower at 8p.

SDX Energy (LON: SDX) says a suspended employee has raised concerns about financial and tax operations. SDX Energy says that they are “substantially without merit”. The oil and gas company has appointed former investment banker Daniel Gould as managing director and he will help with potential acquisitions. The share price declined 6.86% to 4.75p.

Last night Pantheon Resources (LON: PANR) said that 95.4 million shares issued in the recent fundraising are being admitted to AIM today. The other 8.78 million shares have not been issued because the subscription money has not been received, although it is expected in the next few days. The share price slipped 7% to 19.05p. The recent fundraising was at 17p.

Housebuilders, US Tech, and UK Equity Tactics with Marc Kimsey

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to be joined by Marc Kimsey, Head of Equities at Frederick and Oliver, for a comprehensive look at tactical positioning in global stocks.

Marc takes a tactical approach to markets and individual equities and we discuss how positioning has evolved since our last Podcast.

We discuss the main macro drivers of stocks currently before moving onto sectors and individual stocks.

Marc explains his views on UK housebuilders and why the end of this year may bring opportunities.

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SSE to slash dividend to invest in growth

SSE reaped the rewards of changes to household energy price caps as underlying operating profits soared 65% to £2.5bn in the year to 2023.

Changes to the price cap due to surging energy prices meant energy suppliers were given the opportunity to hike prices during the last year.

Clearly conscious of the optics of benefitting at the expense of UK consumers, SSE said they had invested more in CAPEX to help energy security than they made in profits. 

Carefully positioned on the first line of the report, SSE confirmed they had allocated £2.8bn to CAPEX and investment during the period – more than the £2.5bn operating profits generated.

SSE’s existing investors will be pleased that even after the significant levels of investment, there was still cash left over to increase the dividend for the 2023FY. However, income-seeking investors may be perturbed that the company is rebasing the dividend to 60p next year to allocate further funds to investment.

The slashing of the dividend signals SSE may soon be viewed as a growth proposition instead of an income play.

SSE shares were 1.2% higher at the time of writing.

“SSE’s networks deliver electricity across Scotland and Southern England. This is classic utility territory – with revenues and profits closely regulated,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“SSE’s announced it’s staying the course with its pivot towards renewable energy. Turbo-charging efforts to renewables is a bold and admirable move. But the shift to renewables comes with a hefty dose of risk – they’re not always reliable. To some degree, it’s at the mercy of mother nature. That reality hit home last year as unseasonably calm and dry weather left the group’s renewable output lower than planned, meaning flexible gas-fired plants had to plug the energy shortfall. Fortunately, these are still part of SSE’s offering and helped to majorly boost profits – allowing the group to surpass its recently upgraded earnings per share (EPS) guidance.

“However, in a bid to free up cash to fund the renewables investment, SSE reiterated its plans to slash its dividend down from 96.7 to 60p next year. Investors reacted positively, with the shares showing small gains in early trading. As we move towards a net-zero world, the need for investment in renewables and networks is clear, and SSE’s ahead of the pack in this regard. But the transition will be costly, and it’ll likely be a long road until renewables can generate cash more reliably, which adds a layer of risk to SSE in the near-to-medium term.”

FTSE 100 steady as high-yield stocks rise

The FTSE 100 was broadly flat on Tuesday as debt ceiling talks progressed, but economic data signalled slowdowns in major economies.

The FTSE 100 swung between gains and losses on Tuesday. The index opened lower before improving through the session to trade positively. The US open coincided with London’s leading index giving up gains to trade flat at the time of writing. The S&P 500 opened up down around 0.5% before buyers stepped in.

Helping improve sentiment, debt ceiling talks in the US were showing signs of progress.

“Experience tells investors that these stand-offs always end with a last-minute deal so the market is mostly taking this saga in its stride, particularly given commentary from both sides seems to be increasingly conciliatory,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“Just how close Washington must push for there to be a genuine fear of default is an open question, but right up to the eleventh hour, or in other words the end of this month, the expectation is likely to remain that a deal will be done.”

The FTSE 100 outperformed other major European indices after a string of poor economic data released on Tuesday hit stocks on the continent.

The German and US manufacturing sectors have contracted faster than expected, raising fears the global economy was starting to slow. Services data was better than expected and suggested there were still areas of strength in the economy.

FTSE 100 movers

RS Group was the FTSE 100’s top faller after the electronics company said they ‘are mindful of near-term external challenges.’ RS Group’s operating adjusted profit grew 18%, and its operating margin expanded in 2023, but investors were clearly more concerned about performance in the year to come.

RS Group was down over 7% at the time of writing.

The IMF raised its forecasts for UK growth on Tuesday and now thinks the UK will avoid a recession this year. However, it suggested that rates would remain higher for longer than many thought.

The impact this may have was evident in FTSE 100 consumer stocks which were among the top fallers.

B&M, Frasers Group, JD Sports and Next were all down on Tuesday. Housebuilders were also suffering.

The FTSE 100’s top risers were dominated by stocks with substantial dividend yield suggesting investors were seeking income-bearing assets that could compensate for any potential downside in stock prices.

British Land, Vodafone, British American Tobacco and Kingfisher were the top risers on Tuesday.

Navigating uncertainty and robust dividends with abrdn Diversified Income and Growth Trust

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to be joined by Nalaka De Silva, Head of Private Market Solution at abrdn.

Nalaka is responsible for developing and implementing strategies across the Private Markets spectrum. This includes investments across Private Equity, Infrastructure, Real Estate, Natural Resources and Private Credit on a global basis.

The abrdn Diversified Income and Growth Trust provides investors with a structure and strategy usually associated with large insurance and pension funds. The portfolio is a mix of public and private assets delivered in a balanced approach to maintain a solid income and steady capital appreciation.

Find out more about the abrdn Diversified Income and Growth Trust here.

We discuss recent changes in the portfolio and how the team is navigating uncertainty around growth and rates.

Nalaka delivers deep insight into the trust’s weighting and recent changes in the holdings.

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*Get TradingView Pro for 1 year when you start trading with OANDA and meet the minimum volume requirements.

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Disclaimer:

76.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Three AI shares at the forefront of artificial intelligence innovation

Artificial Intelligence is predicted to have an impact on the world that could rival the introduction of the internet and the industrial revolution. 
This article explores three AI shares at the forefront of artificial intelligence innovation and contains the output from certain generative AI tools. The featured image was made using AI.
The technology is set to disrupt almost every industry and has the potential to replace many jobs currently performed by talented humans.
The implications are more profound than the replacement of repetitive roles with robotics. AI could replace many profe...