Rolls Royce, UK interest rates, and Golden Metal Resources with Alan Green

Alan Green joins the Podcast as we delve into a selection of UK equities and key market themes.

We discuss:

  • Rolls Royce (LON:RR)
  • Golden Metal Resources (LON:GMET)
  • Truspine (LON:TSP)

Rolls Royce shares have had a sterling start to 2023. We take a look at their Q1 2023 update and review their guidance. Alan provides his view on shares going forward.

Golden Metal Resources listed this week raising just under £2m. We provide an overview of the company.

We finish looking at the saga at Truspine.

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AIM movers: Cancellation hits Blackbird and Itsarm meeting adjourned

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Itsarm (LON: ITS) adjourned its general meeting to gain shareholder approval for the cancellation of the AIM quotation. The meeting will be held on 26 May. Existing votes will be valid. The share price recovered 30% to 0.325p, although this is well below the high for the day of near to 0.5p.

Shareholders in Pathfinder Minerals (LON: PFP) have agreed to the sale of the IM Minerals subsidiary for an initial £2m in cash. This should be completed on 15 May and the company will become a shell. The share price is 15% higher at 0.575p, which is near to its high this year.

Sustainable biopesticides developer Eden Research (LON: EDEN) has received regulatory approval for Cedroz for fruit and vegetables in California and Florida, as well as Mevalone for the use on Botrytis on grapes in Florida. Sales should commence in 2024. The share price is 10.6% ahead at 4.7p.

Proteome Sciences (LON: PRM) is establishing a facility in San Diego and it should open in the fourth quarter of 2023. Shipping costs and timing delays have made providing proteome services to the US customer base from Europe difficult. The share price rose to 4.8p, but has fallen back to 4.39p, up 0.9% on the day.

A&E Television Network is cancelling its contract with video editing technology developer Blackbird (LON: BIRD) at the end of June. Last year, this contract contributed less than 10% of 2022 revenues of £2.85m. Blackbird is growing its revenues, including from licensing, but this contract loss will hold back the overall rate of growth. Blackbird has £9m in cash, down from £10m at the end of 2022. The share price fell by one-quarter to 7.5p.

Shares in Unbound Group (LON: UBG) continue to fall after Marwyn said that it had decided not to invest due to concern about the footwear retailer’s trading. Management says that it will require further covenant waivers from its banks. Options for raising cash are being considered. The share price is 15.4% lower at 2.75p, which is a new low.

Tlou Energy (LON: TLOU) has launched a four-for-eleven offer to existing shareholders that could raise up to £5.86m at 2p a share. The share price fell 8.7% to 2.1p. This will finance the development of the Lesedi coal bed methane gas-to-power project in Botswana. First electricity sales are expected in the second quarter of 2024.

Tough times for CMO Group

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Online builders’ merchants CMO Group (LON: CMO) increased like-for-like 2022 revenues by 2%, but the market remains tough, and it will be difficult to raise revenues this year. At best, the market may recover in the second half.

Online sales share of that market has fallen from the height of the Covid lockdowns, but the trend is still upwards. CMO Group has a 1.15% share of the market, which is much higher than before lockdowns.

In 2022, revenues increased from £76.3m to £83.1m, helped by acquisitions. Gross margins held up at 19.9% as sales of higher margin products offset the decline at Total Tiles, where there were problems with pricing.

Overheads were increased following flotation on AIM and that is why operating margin dived from 3.5% to 1.5%. There was a boost of around £200,000 to operating profit due to a reduction in deferred consideration for a past acquisition. Pre-exceptionals profit fell from £1.5m to £800,000.

On the plus side, the marketing database grew by 13% and 46% of orders are from repeat customers. The average order value is 18% higher. Branding has been made consistent between the various online platforms operated by CMO Group. The Good Build Superstore aimed at consumers rather than trade has been launched.

Overheads are being reduced. Employee numbers are 15% lower than the peak last year and delivery costs are being controlled.

Construction materials manufacturers and retailers are all suffering from a tough start to the year. First quarter sales have fallen by 10% at CMO Group, but Liberum forecasts flat revenues for 2023. Pre-exceptionals profit could halve to £400,000. This should provide the base for recovery.

The share price fell 0.5p to 21p, which is 52 times prospective 2023 earnings, falling to 23 next year.

Net cash was £1.4m at the end of 2022, but CMO could have a modest level of net debt by the end of 2023. Even so, the model means that there are low levels of stock and CMO Group is in a strong position to benefit when there is an upturn in the economy.

THG board cut off discussions with Apollo

The THG board have cut off discussions with Apollo, sorry shareholders you are now having to be in it for the long slog, but don’t worry other bidders could still be around.

As if by magic, within hours of yesterday afternoon’s article being published, we have a statement today from THG (LON:THG).

The beauty and nutrition internet retailer has announced that it was not seeking an extension to the discussions with Apollo Global Management and it has now terminated all discussions with the potential bidder.

Does that mean that Apollo Global Management, the US-based fund manager, has walked away?

I would think not, as yet, because it obviously did have some concrete plans for the future progress of THG, so it would not, in my opinion, have just upped its THG sticks and just walked away.

Apollo made an indicative proposal, which was THG considered to be on an ‘inadequate valuation’.

So, what will it do now?

We now know, from THG’s own lips, that the company has had several publicly and other private offers for the company.

It has rejected those upon similar grounds to its rejection of the Apollo approach.

I do not think that Apollo will walk away, nor will any of the other potential suitors.

They all have irons in what could prove to be a very hot fire.

The question is who will move first?

I bet the weekend press will commit column inches by the score to discussing the whole situation.

So THG could still be considered to be in play.

The shares fell to a 55p low this morning before quickly bouncing back to 67p.

Are they going to gain further ground?

Without any doubt my answer is that they will be recovering very soon.

THG – will Apollo firm up upon its intentions next Monday and make a bid? Should gamblers jump in now?

We have published a follow-up article to this article after news on the bid was released Friday 12th.
Less than a month ago THG (LON:THG), the e-commerce retail group, announced that it had received  ‘a highly preliminary and non-binding indicative proposal’ from Apollo Global Management to acquire the group.
Other names in the frame
It has been reported that several companies have been particularly interested in a play for THG.
Names in the frame over the last year or so have included hedge fund King Street, THG’s main board director Iain McDonald’s Belerion Capital, even Nick Candy has been ...

FTSE 100 slips as Bank of England hikes rates

The FTSE 100 slipped on Thursday after the Bank of England hiked rates and set out their revised forecast for the UK economy.

As expected, the Bank of England raised rates by 0.25% to 4.5%. However, the market-moving elements of the bank’s instalment were their UK economic forecasts and press conference. The prospect of additional rate hikes this year curtailed demand for UK risk assets.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.34% at the time of writing during the Bank of England’s press conference.

The BoE now expects the UK economy will avoid a recession but still sees persistently high inflation levels through the rest of 2023. The bank sees sharp drops in inflation this year, but with inflation currently in double digits, inflation will still be significantly higher than their 2% target.

“Sticky inflation means the Bank of England has once again turned to its weapon of choice in hope of stamping out the inflationary pressures the economy is facing,” said Rachel Winter, Partner at Killik & Co.

Winter continued to explain markets are predicting further interest rate hikes later this year – a contrast to the current trajectory for rates in the US.

“While the Federal Reserve recently indicated that it was ready to hit the pause button on rate hikes in the US, markets in the UK are currently pricing in a peak of 4.85% in September.”

GBP/USD fell despite the bank predicting 0.25% growth in 2023 – and will avoid a recession. In February, the bank had predicted a 0.5% contraction in 2023.

FTSE 100 movers

Airtel Africa was the FTSE 100 top faller after reporting 2022 full-year results. Investors were disappointed with falling earnings due to currency fluctuations. Airtel Africa shares were down 7% at the time of writing.

Rolls Royce slipped as the defence and aviation firm kept guidance for the year unchanged. Roll Royce shares were down 5% on Thursday but are still up 58% on the year.

Miners were under pressure as concerns about Chinese demand for natural resources sapped interest in the sector. Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Glencore were down between 2%-3%.

ITV

Former FTSE 100 constituent ITV’s hopes of being promoted back to London’s leading index were dealt a blow after poor trading in Q1.

ITV was down 4.5% after its Q1 2023 trading update was released. The media group said sales faltered in the period, primarily due to lower advertising revenue.

“TV advertising faces both a structural challenge, as the audience for linear television declines, and a cyclical challenge as companies trim their advertising spend thanks to an uncertain economic outlook,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“This was reflected in free-to-air broadcaster ITV’s first quarter trading update which, not unexpectedly, showed a big decline in advertising revenue and signalled a weak showing on this front in the current quarter too.

“Advertising spend on its digital platforms is proving more resilient but not sufficiently so that it can make up for the drop off elsewhere.”

ITV’s shares need to rally by around a third to be in contention for promotion to the FTSE 100.

Why Rolls Royce shares are falling after their Q1 2023 trading update

On Thursday, Rolls Royce issued their Q1 2023 trading update and provided insight into recent sales activity and outlook for the rest of the year.

Rolls Royce said they were keeping operating profit guidance of £0.8-£1.0bn and free cash flow guidance of £0.6-£0.8bn unchanged.

The company noted its civil aerospace business unit was approaching pre-pandemic levels and several awards in their defence unit. Rolls Royce alluded to progress in their transformation strategy and robust customer demand.

Despite reasonable operational progress, Rolls Royce shares were down 3.5% at the time of writing on Thursday following the release.

Analysts suggested the new CEO’s honeymoon period was coming to an end, and investors took the opportunity to book profits after a strong run in the stock.

“Tough talk which suggested he got the seriousness of the challenge facing the company and a decent first set of numbers took new Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic a long way with the market,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“However, today’s trading update saw the first sign of investors taking a tougher line.

“There was nothing to really frighten the horses, trading is in line and the company’s key aerospace business is mirroring the recovery in the wider aviation sector to edge back towards pre-pandemic levels.

“A fall in the share price may just have represented some profit taking after an exceptionally strong run for the stock, but there were some less than positive hints in the statement.”

Mould continued to explain the lack of news on their new business segment, which includes small modular reactors, as another possible reason for investor disappointment.

“Perhaps most significantly there was nothing on the company’s New Markets business – which encompasses its investments in areas like small modular reactors (seen as a cheaper and quicker way of developing nuclear power) and electrical aviation.

“On this front, recent news the development of small modular reactors in the UK will be put out to public tender was a blow for Rolls. Its participation in this process was seen as a potential slam dunk but now international rivals could swoop in and take a piece of the action.”

AIM movers: Block Energy production increases and ex-dividends

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Block Energy (LON: BLOE) increased average daily oil and gas production by 5% to 450 barrels of oil equivalent in 2022 and this April it has increased to more than 620 barrels. Revenues increased by 35% to $8.26m and the loss decreased in 2022. The share price rose 16% to 1.45p.

Ilika (LON: IKA) has made its first shipments of Stereax M300 batteries from its UK facility. They are used for IOT and healthcare products. The outsourced manufacturing contract is still being negotiated. The share price is 11.1% higher at 50p.

Andrada Mining (LON: ATM) has appointed Barclays Bank as strategic financial adviser to its lithium prospect in the Erongo region of Namibia. Management says that Barclays offers experience and access to financial markets. The share price rose 5.66% to 5.6p.

Keywords Studios (LON: KWS) is acquiring US-based Hardsuit Labs, which offers video games development services. Last year’s revenues were $11m and the maximum consideration is $15m, with $6.75m based on growth targets over two years. The share price increased 4.54% to 2279p.

Malaysia-based Mobility One (LON: MBO) has been asked for further information relating to its application for UK electronic money institution authorisation, and this led it to withdraw its application. It is assessing alternatives. The share price slumped 31.3% to 5.5p.

Oil and gas producer Serinus Energy (LON: SENX) generated revenues of $4.9m and a loss of $1.3m in the first quarter of 2023. European gas prices weakened during the period. Shore says Serinus Energy will find it difficult to meet 2023 forecasts. It may reduce its risked NAV of 70p a share. The share price fell 26.1% to 4.25p.

Cell engineering company MaxCyte Inc (LON: MXCT) has reduced its guidance for 2023 revenue growth from 21%-26% to 8%-12%. First quarter revenues fell 26% to $8.6m. Pharma companies are focusing on developing their internal assets. The share price declined 17.8% to 312.5p.

Scientific Instruments supplier SDI Group (LON: SDI) says that additional investment means that although revenues increased in the year to April 2023, pre-tax profit will be flat at £11.9m. The pre-tax profit forecast for the current year has been reduced by 17% to £9.8m, because of disappointing sales of higher margin products. The share price slipped 14% to 150.5p.

Ex-dividends

Avingtrans (LON: AVG) is paying an interim dividend of 1.7p a share and the share price is unchanged at 410p.

TJ & JH Braime (LON: BMTO) is paying a final dividend of 9p a share and the share price is unchanged at 1750p.

TJ & JH Braime (LON: BMT) is paying a final dividend of 9p for each A share and the share price is unchanged at 1350p.

Epwin (LON: EPWN) is paying a final dividend of 2.55p a share and the share price slipped 2p to 67.5p.

Greencoat Renewables (LON: GRP) is paying a dividend of 1.6 cents a share and the share price is 0.75 cents lower at 109.75 cents.

Gresham House (LON: GHE) is paying a final dividend of 16p a share and the share price fell 15p to 785p.

James Halstead (LON:JHD) is paying an interim dividend of 2.25p a share and the share price declined 0.5p to 210.5p.

Tandem Group (LON: TND) is paying a final dividend of 6.57p a share and the share price is unchanged at 240p.

The Property Finance Group (LON: TPFG) is paying a final dividend of 8.8p a share and the share price fell 2.5p to 315p.

Focusrite (LON: TUNE) is paying an interim dividend of 2.1p a share and the share price is unchanged at 570p.

Serinus Energy – big drop in commodity prices slashes profits in Q1, is now the time to buy

The Q1 results from Serinus Energy (LON:SENX) for the three months to end March 2023 have shown a massive decrease in net income from a positive $1.045m last year to a negative $1.269m this year.
Revenues in Q1 came out at $4.9m ($13.4m), slashing EBITDA to $0.4m ($3.1m) for the period.
The group which has resource interests in Romania and Tunisia endured a significant operating netback decrease, in line with commodity prices, coming out at $39.52 boe against $148.88 boe for last year.
The Jersey, Channel Islands-based Serinus Energy engages in the exploration and development of oil and gas pr...

ITV shares fall as advertisers tighten belts

ITV shares were weaker on Thursday as the UK media giant revealed advertisers reduced spending in the first quarter and their studio’s business flatlined.

ITV’s total external revenue for the first quarter fell 7% to £776m with media and entertainment revenue sinking 9%. Their studio’s business revenue was flat at £457m.

Total advertising revenue for the period fell 10% to £419m.

“ITV’s first quarter held few surprises. Double digit declines in advertising revenue were expected, but these are due to get worse in the new quarter. That reflects the very real challenges that come with relying on above-the-line spending during times of economic stagnation,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Although the wider media and entertainment unit’s revenue fell, the new streaming service ITVX continued to build momentum and total digital revenue rose 29% while total streaming hours through the service were up 49% in Q1.

“ITV is throwing a lot at its digital transformation, and digital advertising revenue is proving more resilient. However, this isn’t enough to stem losses elsewhere, showing how deeply rooted ITV still is in traditional broadcasting,” Lund-Yates said.

“Studios revenue is on track to deliver mid-single digit revenue growth. This area of the business is sitting on a well of future demand thanks to the huge swell in appetite for content from other providers. There are tricky elements to deal with in content creation though. It’s a very tough business in which to inflate margins, and is a large reason ITV’s operating profit expectations have been dialled back.”

ITV shares were 4.5% weaker at the time of writing.