European Equity Opportunities in Q2 with Morningstar’s Michael Field

The UK Investor Magazine Podcast was thrilled to welcome Michael Field, CFA, European Market Strategist at Morningstar.

We take a deep dive into the European equity market and explore the opportunities identified by Michael Field’s European equity team.

Get Morningstar’s European Outlook for Q2 2023

Our conversation starts with the key macro considerations before progressing to individual sectors identified as presenting value.

Michael outlines the opportunity in the energy sector and how energy majors could benefit from the energy transition.

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AIM movers: Director buying at Bradda Head and Circle Property return of cash

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Bradda Head Lithium (LON: BHL) director Jim Mellon acquired eight million shares at 4.5p each, taking his stake to 18.7%. The share price increased 28.9% to 6.25p. The lithium explorer has acquired three additional inlier lode claims in Arizona.

Spectral MD (LON: SMD) reached its highest level since 2021 following announcement earlier this week that it is merging with Nasdaq-listed SPAC Rosecliff Acquisition Corp 1. The share price is 22.2% higher at 44p. The deal values Spectral MD at $170m, or 101p a share. The AIM quotation will be cancelled. There is likely to be a $15m placing. This will provide additional cash to finance the commercialisation of the DeepView woundcare analysis technology. The transaction should complete in the third quarter.

Kodal Minerals (LON: KOD) has risen a further 15.5 % to 0.79p following yesterday’s announcement that Hainan Mining has received approvals from the Chinese authorities for its proposed £82m funding package for the Bougouni lithium project in Mali and £14.6m share subscription in Kodal Mining. A $7m deposit has already been achieved. This is the highest the share price has been since 2014.

One trade worth £6,000 has pushed up the Gunsynd (LON: GUN) share price by 9.59% to 0.4p. Investee company Omega Oil and Gas (ASX: OMA) says initial results from the Canyon-2 well in Queensland have exceeded expectations.

Circle Property (LON: CRC) shares have gone ex-entitlement for the £16.1m return of capital. That is equivalent to 55p a share. The share price is 32.5p lower at 22.5p.

In-content advertising technology company Mirriad Advertising (LON: MIRI) says that there is no prospect of a bid. The share price has slumped 34.5% to 0.95p. There was £7.5m in the bank at the end of March. Management is seeking a source of more funding, but there is no certainty that more cash will be secured. Mirriad is partnering with broadband and video delivery services provider Harmonic Inc to help broadcasters to target audiences.

Van Elle (LON: VANL) says that 2022-23 results will be in line with previously upgraded expectations. However, next year’s forecast is being downgraded. The ground engineering contractor says the construction sector has been slowing down and there are continuing supply issues. The 2022-23 pre-tax profit forecast is £5.2m, while the 2023-24 forecast has been cut from £6m to £5m. The share price has fallen 10% to 45p.

Superdry – founder Julian Dunkerton confidently ready to pump more funds into his recovering style brand, while shares fall 18%

Although it is showing good retail sales growth, it is at a slower than hoped-for rate.

The iconic style brand Superdry (LON:SDRY) is battling away at its turnaround plan, while also looking to strengthen its balance sheet, so a round of fresh financing is being considered.

Operating in over 50 countries globally, the group has 219 physical stores and around 450 franchisees and licensees.

Through its distinct collections, defined by consumer style choices, the company considers that Its mission is to be the Number 1 sustainable style destination.

It designs affordable, premium quality clothing, accessories and footwear which are sold around the world.

The company has a clear strategy for delivering continued growth via a multi-channel approach combining stores, e-commerce, and wholesale.

After Christmas showing strong demand

In January the group stated that its brand recovery was back on track with strong demand in the pre-Christmas weeks at its stores, however its wholesaling side was some 5.2% weaker.

Against that it had to contend with expected macroeconomic hassles and founder and CEO Julian Dunkerton stated that he did not expect market conditions to become easier any time soon, even so he approached the year ahead with optimism.

South-Korea deal for cash

Well, that was in late January – since when the group has sorted out its financing pressures and arranged a $50m (£34m) deal out in Asia for the sale of the group’s intellectual property in the APAC region.

The net proceeds from the Sale will be used to increase the strength of the company’s balance sheet, boost liquidity, and fund its ongoing working capital requirements, including the implementation of a significant cost reduction programme.

The recovery plan is still underway

The late March announced deal mentioned that the company is also considering additional steps to further strengthen its balance sheet in connection with its turnaround programme, which is being delivered in a challenging market, which could include a potential equity issue.

In its latest Trading Statement, the group is now looking for its current year revenue to be in the range of £615m to £635m, up slightly from last year’s £609m and accordingly it has withdrawn its profit guidance to the market from previously expecting a ‘broadly break-even’ result.

Founder ready to pump in more cash

It states that there are more savings to be put into operation, while it is considering an equity raise of up to 20% in new capital.

Dunkerton has declared that he has confidence in the prospects for Superdry and that he will fully support and materially participate in such an equity issue.

“The Superdry brand continues to evolve but there is no doubt that the market conditions we face are challenging, compounded by the issues we have previously disclosed and are working to address in Wholesale. As a result, while we continue to deliver like-for-like growth in retail sales, we need to ensure our business is in the right shape to navigate these difficult times, which is why we are looking hard at our cost base.”

Analyst Opinion – a Buy worth 250p a share

Analyst Wayne Brown at Liberum Capital still rates the shares as a Buy but has halved his Target Price for the group’s shares from 500p down to just 250p – which is still significantly higher than the pre-statement price of 106.8p at which the company was capitalised at £87m.

His pre-tax expectation for the April year-end is for £614m sales and a loss of £12.0m (£21.9m profit).

For the coming year Brown is hopeful for some £622m of turnover and a bounce back to £20.3m profits, worth 18.9p per share in earnings.

Jumping forward the retail sector specialist estimates £645m sales, £43.3m profits and 40.3p of earnings per share, hence his Target Price aim.

The group’s shares fell 18% on the news to 86p.

FTSE 100 flat as UK economy stalls, housebuilders upgraded

The FTSE 100 reflected an indecision in markets on Thursday as the UK economy flatlined in February and investors digested the latest Federal Reserve minutes.

The FTSE 100 edged up just 0.2% points to 7,843 at the time of writing on Thursday. Tesco rose after releasing preliminary results, and housebuilders enjoyed broker upgrades.

From a macro perspective, investors were mulling over insights from the Federal Reserve and attempting to predict the next move in interest rates.

UK growth was dead flat in February, so the UK looks set to avoid recession in the near term – but its hardly an environment conducive to igniting animal spirits.

Inflation and rates considerations

US CPI inflation data yesterday was quickly followed by Federal Reserve minutes that provided little certainty to markets about the next move in interest rates.

“Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting didn’t signal a clear intention by the Federal Reserve to immediately stop hiking its key rate further or to lower it by the end of the year, despite acknowledging a material tightening of financial conditions,” said George Lagarias, Chief Economist at Mazars.

Lagarias continued to explain that while there wasn’t a clear path ahead, there was a general feeling we were nearing the end of the hiking cycle.

“However, we don’t think there’s a basis for immediate investor disappointment. Some policymakers are having second thoughts about further hikes, and we appear to be very close to the end of this rate hike cycle. One or two more rate hikes will not make a significant difference at this point,” Lagarias said.

The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% overnight and looked set to open modestly higher on Thursday.

In addition to concerns around central banks, investors will also be weighing the possibility of a US recession.

“The sceptre of recession in the world’s largest economy continues to loom in the near distance and could cloud sentiment for some time,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Tesco

Tesco’s preliminary results reflected the dour mood around the UK economy currently. Tesco’s revenue grew less than market expectations, and profit before tax halved compared to a year ago.

However, the reaction in Tesco shares suggested some investor saw a light at the end of the tunnel.

Housebuilders rose after HSBC analysts issued upgrades across the sector.

Of the FTSE 100 housebuilders, HSBC upgraded Persimmon to a ‘buy’ from hold with a 1,550p price target, Barratt Developments to a ‘buy’ from hold with a 570p price target, and Taylor Wimpey to a ‘buy’ from hold with a 150p price target.

HSBC raised Berkeley Group to ‘hold’ from reduce and issued a 4,000p price target.

Pennant International adds to rail operations

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Pennant International (LON: PEN) is reducing its dependence on the aerospace and defence sector through the acquisition of UK rail services business Track Access Productions. This should be earnings enhancing and adds to the recurring revenues base.

Bedfordshire-based Track Access Productions provides driver training and route mapping services to train operators, freight companies and infrastructure providers. AIM-quoted Pennant International is paying an initial £798,500, which takes account of the cash in the business, and a further £175,500 in 12 months. In the year to March 2023, revenues were £600,000 – 50% recurring – and pre-tax profit was around £200,000.

The acquisition fits well with an existing group business and the combined entity should generate annualised revenues of £850,000.

Active investor Rockwood Strategic (LON: RKW) has been building up a stake in Pennant International and it currently owns 5.16%. It tends to build up a stake over time and try to take an active role in improving the performance of a business.

The share price rose by 2.7% to 38p and it is one-quarter higher than at the end of 2022. WH Ireland plans to upgrade its earnings forecast. The broker anticipates a return to profit in 2022 and a significant improvement to £1.2m in 2023. The 2023 earnings estimate before the acquisition was 3.3p a share.

AIM movers: Kodal Minerals lithium mine financing progresses and ex-dividends

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Kodal Minerals (LON: KOD) says that Hainan Mining has received approvals from the Chinese authorities for its proposed £82m funding package for the Bougouni lithium project in Mali and £14.6m share subscription. Kodal Mining subsidiaries have to be reorganised for the conditions to be completed and that should happen by the end of April. A $7m deposit has been achieved. The share price rose 12.3% to 0.665p.

Aeorema Communications (LON: AEO) chief executive Steve Quah sold 12,437 shares at 80p each and non-exec Hannah Luffman bought the same number at the same price. She did not previously own any shares. The share price is 10.6% higher at 88.5p.

Cyber security services provider Corero Network Security (LON: CNS) has gained significant new orders totalling $2m for its SmartWall services. The average order vale is $380,000. Sales and marketing is more targeted. There was a 8.7% recovery in the share price to 6.25p, although it has still fallen by nearly one-third so far this year.

Tlou Energy (LON: TLOU) has commenced work on the Lesedi 6 well and it plans to improve dewatering and gas flow so more gas can be extracted from the coal seam. The gas will be used to generate electricity as part of the 10MW power purchase agreement with Botswana Power Corporation. The share price is 9.09% ahead at 2.4p.

Steppe Cement Ltd (LON: STCM) was hit by significant share selling early in the morning following a decline in cement sales in the quarter to March 2023. The share price slumped 23.9% to 33.5p. The Kazakh cement market declined by 13%, compared with a 24% volume decline for the company. There were logistical problems.

The Bezant Resources (LON: BZT) share price continues to fall following the announcement it is raising £750,000 at 0.04p a share to finance operations at the Hope copper gold project in Namibia. There was a further decline of 7.61% to 0.0425p.

Distill (LON: DIS) had a good fourth quarter of trading, relative to earlier in the year, but year-on-year sales were still lower and full year performance was still below market expectations. The move to a direct sales model in the UK by the spirits producer has taken longer than anticipated. Full year revenues are expected to be £1.32m. That means that the 2022-23 loss will be higher than expected. The share price is 5.26% lower at 0.45p.

Watkin Jones Group (LON: WJG) shares have fallen 5.47% to 90.65p after an interim trading update. Institutional interest in student accommodation and private rental developments is improving, but the figures will be second half weighted. The interim profit could be less than one-fifth of the forecast 2023-24 pre-tax profit of £50m. Net cash is £44m.

Ex-dividends

Alpha Group International (LON: ALPH) is paying a final dividend of 11p a share and the share price is unchanged at 2050p.  

Caledonia Mining Corp (LON: CMCL) is paying a dividend of 14 cents a share and the share price is unchanged at 1350p.  

Franchise Brands (LON: FRAN) is paying a final dividend of 1.1p a share and the share price rose 1.5p to 184p.  

Johnson Service Group (LON: JSG) is paying a final dividend of 1.6p a share and the share price is 1.4p higher at 121.8p.  

Tesco profit sinks as cost of living crisis bites

Tesco missed market expectations for revenue growth in last year, but still managed to increase sales by 5.1% on a like-for-like basis. Profits sank as a result of lower margins due to the cost of living crisis.

Soaring rates of inflation and resultant wider cost of living crisis is a thorn in the side of major supermarkets as their customer’s spending power dwindles.

An over 2% rise in Tesco’s share price to 273p on Thursday reflects the extent economic concerns had already been factored into their shares. The selloff late last year took Tesco shares down to 200p.

While the top line displayed resilience, the impact of higher costs was clearly obvious in their operating profit. Profit before tax halved to $1bn from £2bn in FY 21/22.

Although total revenue rose, volumes fell and cost inflation eroded margins as Tesco wages a war of attrition against the discounters Aldi and Lidl. Adjusted operating profit fell 7.1% as Tesco’s average store worker wage rose to £11.02 per hour. 

“Tesco has seen profits take a knock as inflation means struggling customers are picking up fewer items while prices soar. At the same time, the grocery giant is investing heavily in its customer care while times are so tough. While the group is doing what it can to keep prices low, it’s not lost on consumers that grocery inflation remains one of the most painful areas of overall rising costs at the moment,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“That’s where we’ve seen the rise of the discounters, which although much smaller, have forced the main players to up their game. Aldi price matches and other similar campaigns are a stark reminder of how stiff competition is. By some trains of thinking, if you’re having to name your competitor, they’ve already won.”

Wholesaler Booker was a stand out performer for Tesco with a 12% increase in like-for-like sales. Tesco bank adjusted operating profit slipped 18% due to provisions for an uncertain economic outlook.

Tesco proposed a final dividend of 7.05p to total a full year dividend of 10.90p. This was in line with last year’s dividend.

International growth at Churchill China

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Churchill China (LON: CHH) continues to win market share in Europe as it broadens its distribution network and that help the hospitality ceramics manufacturer to beat 2022 expectations. However, management is cautious about the UK prospects.  

Exports are nearly two-thirds of hospitality revenues. Churchill China has around 6% of the continental European market. Sales and marketing is being increased in the region. Other international markets are also growing.

In the UK, the acquisition of the Dudson brand has helped to win new customers. UK hospitality market share is around 30%. The retail sales have fallen to £2.4m, so they are less than 3% of the total.

Materials sales were 37% ahead at £7.2m and the profit contribution more than doubled to £1.2m. This reflects strong demand from other UK ceramics manufacturers.

Problems recruiting have hampered production efficiency at Churchill China, but volumes were still 30% ahead of those in 2021. Energy costs have been hedged and they are currently lower. Solar panels have been installed. Capital investment will help to improve efficiency.

In 2022, revenues improved from £60.8m to £82.5m and pre-exceptional profit rose from £6m to £9.1m. The dividend is being increased from 24p a share to 31.5p a share and that is still more than twice covered by earnings.

There was a reduction in cash from £19.1m to £14.7m, which was mainly down to an increase in inventories. Longer production runs are one way to improve efficiency and they lead to higher stocks. This level of stock is not likely to reduce significantly as Churchill China tries to ensure that it has a full range of products to satisfy demand.

The high level of capital investment means that there could be another fall in cash this year. Michael Cunningham will be joining the company as finance director on 1 June.

The order book is stronger than normal, and the year has started well. Singer forecasts a 2023 pre-tax profit of £11.3m and another jump in dividend to 39.1p a share. At 1285p, the shares are trading on less than 17 times prospective earnings.

There is uncertainty about the outlook for the year, but there is undoubtedly strong demand for Churchill China products and scope for further market share gains in Europe. An attractive long-term investment.

Top 5 high-risk small-cap FTSE shares to consider in Q2 2023 Part 1

Part 1: Harland & Wolff (LON:HARL) and (LON:BOIL) sport relatively depressed share prices that could offer decent entry points to would-be investors.

As we dive into Q2 2023, some of the most promising FTSE AIM shares remain seriously undervalued from a risk-reward perspective.

Of course, this is only a personal view, and not investing advice. These companies are AIM shares for a reason. They’re speculative and volatile, but come with the chance of exceptional returns for those prepared to buy, hold, and wait.

5 high-risk FTSE AIM shares to buy

1. Harland & Wolff (LON: HARL)

With an investor event coming on 17 April, HARL has plenty of developments to highlight to its shareholders. The meat is of course the £900 million backlog of already confirmed contracted revenues — £750 million of which is represented by the gigantic FSS contract.

HARL also has a £3.6 billion pipeline of new business over the next five years — representing a projected backlog of £1.24 billion at the current win rate. And it’s usually the case that contract wins beget contract wins.

The FTSE company is targeting revenues of between £100 million and £115 million in FY23, and this is expected to double to between £200 million to £230 million in FY24 — with a blended gross margin of 24-27% ‘over the medium term.’

While HARL only expected to start breaking even in FY24, it has upsized a debt facility with Riverstone to $100 million and is refinancing a further £200 million this quarter.

It also helps that President Joe Biden is visiting the country today.

Further, the company is awaiting formal hearings between 2-5 May concerning the Islandmagee Gas Storage Project, with the company ‘optimistic of a positive outcome’ for the full judicial review. It’s worth noting that while concerns over gas prices have subsided for now, the UK’s record low storage and concerns over next winter mean there is political pressure to get the project approved.

Of course, there are risks — HARL released a bombshell RNS late last year which tanked the share price, but the disconnect between the fundamentals and its £26 million market cap is vast.

2. Baron Oil (LON: BOIL)

BOIL shares rose to 0.25p apiece in mid-February, but the stock has fallen to 0.14p today, representing a great entry point — despite having doubled over the past year.

The explorer’s Competent Person’s Report for the Chuditch Project estimates that Chuditch-1 contains ‘1,084 Bscf gross mean contingent gas resources attributable to the licence,’ with various further resources across the prospect.

BOIL is, and always has been, about waiting for Chuditch to be sold to one of the titans in the region who already have an interest in building suitable infrastructure in East Timor. This will be an expensive endeavour given the logistics of building over the Timor Trench, but Woodside is engaging a concept study on the nearby Sunrise Project.

The buyer could be ENI, Santos, or Woodside — but one side of the equation that has not yet been highlighted is that Australia is becoming a harder place to drill for oil and gas.

Challenges to the £11 billion per annum subsidies, the safeguard legislation, and multiple blocked projects including lawsuits awarded against Santos’ $5.5 billion Barossa venture are all creating an atmosphere where the majors may start to look elsewhere.

FTSE 100 rises as US inflation falls

The FTSE 100 convincingly broke 7,800 on Wednesday as London’s leading index continued the recovery from the banking crisis saga.

One may dare to suggest if the momentum in the current rally continues, the index could attack the psychological 8,000 level in the coming days.

The FTSE 100 was trading at 7,822, up 0.5% at the time of writing. The S&P 500 was 0.3% to the good.

Stock specific news was light on Wednesday and all eyes were on US inflation data and the ramifications for the global economy.

The nervousness in markets around inflation was demonstrated with the sharp reaction in equities to just a marginally better CPI print.

US CPI for the month of March was 5% compared to estimates of 5.2%. US equities jumped in the immediate reaction, before easing off.

March’s reading is materially lower than the 6% rise in prices in the year to February and will make the next monetary policy decision a tough one.

The problems faced by central banks have been well documented and today’s data will not make their job any easier.

Numerous commentators are keeping financial media alive with talks of a US recession while the IMF has again highlighted the slow pace of UK growth. Indeed, the IMF predicts the UK economy will contract in 0.3%.

Such a negative economic outlook would not usually be conducive for higher interest rates. However, a US CPI reading of 5% means central banks still have to act to control prices. This could make the economic picture worse.

The horrible truth is the Fed needs a recession to control inflation. Nonetheless, equity markets are largely ignoring this earnings-eroding scenario, for now.

Centrica

Centrica was among the FTSE 100’s top risers again on Wednesday as the utilities company benefited from the defensive nature of their business and elevated energy prices.

BT was the FTSE 100’s top riser, gaining 1.8%, as their quiet rally took the stock to the highest level since August.

Ocado was the top faller, down 2.6%, as traders booked profits