NatWest shares tank as higher profit fails to impress

NatWest profit for 2022 rose by a third to £5.1bn as the lender confirmed higher interest rates bolstered earnings and they were yet to see financial distress among its customers.

The bank only set aside £337m in provisions for bad debts in 2022 which avoided an erosion of earnings and compounded higher net interest margins.

However, this seems to be a story for 2022 and markets were evidently concerned that provisions for bad debts would increase, and margins decrease, in 2023.

Interest Rates

The Bank of England have signalled a slowing in interest rate hikes that may culminate in lower rates towards the end of this year. NatWest recorded Net Interest Margin of 2.85% in 2022 and 3.2% in Q4 2022.

This level will be hard to maintain if rates fall towards the end of the year. NatWest themselves have forecast 3.2% Net Interest Margin for 2023 – should the base rate stay at 4%.

This would suggest NatWest’s key earnings metric has peaked and leaves them open for lower earnings, if interest rates fall.

These concerns proved too much for investors and NatWest shares fell as much as 8% in early trade, before recovering slightly.

“NatWest may have delivered its biggest profit since the financial crisis but investors are far more concerned about what’s coming next and that’s less positive,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Income for 2023 is now guided to be lower than expected, with the key net interest margin metric also falling short. Costs are also set to be higher than forecast.”

“While impairments are anticipated to be a bit lower than estimates the market may be cautious of taking NatWest at its word given the difficult backdrop for consumers and businesses which could lead to a big increase in bad debts.”

AIM movers: Successful fundraising for Creo Medical and Purplebricks strategic review

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Medical devices developer Creo Medical (LON: CREO) raised £28.5m from the placing at 20p a share, which was more than initially targeted. With more to come from the open offer, Cenkos believe that this is enough cash to fully commercialise the current product portfolio. Revenues of £100m are forecast by 2027. The share price jumped 53.1% to 37.5p.

Shares in Clontarf Energy (LON: CLON) continue to rise following the announcement earlier this week that it is forming a joint venture with US-based NEXT-ChemX Corporation. This covers the deployment and marketing of the latter’s direct lithium ion extraction technology in Bolivia. The share price is 22.8% higher at 0.175p.

Jaywing (LON: JWNG) shares have recovered some of yesterday’s losses after deferral of contracts by clients of the digital marketing services provider led to forecast downgrades. The 2022-23 pre-tax profit expectations were more than halved to £1m, while next year’s forecast has been slashed from £3.7m to £2m. The share price clawed back 11.7% to 5.025p.

Semiconductors designer EnSilica (LON: ENSI) moved into operating profit in the first half and momentum has continued in the second half. A €5m contract has been won to develop a chip for the satellite communications market, which will start generating revenues in 2023-24. Interim revenues are nearly one-quarter higher at £8.59m. The growth came from design and supply. There was a pre-tax loss of £202,000, but R&D tax credits meant that there was a £322,000 profit after tax. A small full year pre-tax loss is forecast for the full year with a £844,000 post-tax profit. The share pric moved 9.09% higher to 102p.

Tekcapital (LON: TEK) investee company Guident has executed a letter of intent with Auve Tech to provide remote monitoring and control services for its autonomous vehicles. A vehicle using the technology should be launched in North America in the second half of 2023. The share price rose 2.56% to 20p.

Purplebricks (LON: PURP) is launching a strategic review because the board believes the company is undervalued. The share price slumped 20.4% to 7.88p, which is a new low. Changes to the estate agency business have disrupted the third quarter performance. Instruction numbers were lower than expected and £4m of annualised cost savings have been identified. There will be £1.2m of one-off costs in the second half. The full year adjusted EBITDA loss will be between £15m and £20m. It was previously expected to be around £10m.

Maintel Holdings (LON: MAI) chief executive Ioan McRae has resigned. The share price fell 17.2% to 120p. Last month, the managed services provider reported that higher than expected costs in the fourth quarter and project delays hit professional services margin. Underlying 2022 EBITDA will be above £4m, but well down on the £9.6m in 2021. It was previously anticipated that 2022 EBITDA could be around £7m.

Bus operator Rotala (LON: ROL) has completed an oversubscribed £10m tender offer at 55p a share. The share price fell 10.9% to 45p. Anyone subscribing up to 35.7% of their shares will have all their shares acquired, while shares tendering above that figure will be scaled back so the total amount spent is £10m.

The Natural Pozzolan-Perlite project remains the main focus for Sunrise Resources (LON: SRES) and it is seeking to develop relationships with cement and ready-mix companies. This could secure long-term offtake agreements for the project in Nevada. The share price declined by 4.55% to 0.105p.

Segro shares jump as pre-tax profit increases

Segro shares were higher on Friday after pre-tax rose 8% to £386m in 2022 as the logistics property firm said net rental income rose 18.9% to £522m.

The company suffered a 15% reduction in adjusted NAV per share due to a negative revaluation of their property portfolio. Macroeconomic influences were to blame for lower property prices but strong rental demand supported earnings.

Segro noted record new headline rent commitments of £98m as customers snapped up their warehouses.

Segro shares were 4% higher at the time of writing on Friday.

“Logistics property specialist SEGRO has reported underlying profits up 9% to £386m, with strong demand from occupiers contributing to a 19% increase in rental income,” said Steve Clayton, Head of Equity Funds at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“But rising interest rates are impacting on what the group’s properties are worth in the open market. The Net Asset Value dropped 15% as a result. SEGRO are far from alone in seeing their asset values drop. So far, the group is paying more attention to its operational performance, which gave SEGRO the confidence to hike the dividend by 8.2% to 26.3p per share. The market was expecting something along these lines and the shares are little changed in early trading.”

A new dawn for Asian markets?

James Thom, Investment Manager, abrdn New Dawn Investment Trust plc

  • After a tough year, 2023 starts on a more optimistic note for many Asian markets
  • China’s reopening may fuel regional growth, while the interest rate cycle may support stock markets
  • There will still be fragility in the year ahead and a focus on quality companies with resilient earnings will be crucial

2022 was a challenging year for global markets – and Asia was no exception. While a handful of markets bucked the trend, the weakness of China was a major headwind for the region as a whole. However, at the start of 2023, there are promising signs of change: China is reopening, the interest rate cycle may be turning and companies are showing significant resilience. 

Asia has had face down global and domestic problems over the past 12 months. In particular, Covid lockdowns, political tensions and problems in its property sector have seen China act as a drag on regional growth. Countries with commodities exposure, such as Australia and Indonesia have been rare exceptions to the general weakness, with India also a surprise source of resilience during a tough year. 

2023 begins more optimistically. Whilst it’s certainly true that a recession in the West may dent demand for Asian exports and weigh on growth, there are nonetheless noteworthy signs of a shift in the economic cycle within Asia. Most important is the potential for a shift in the monetary policy cycle across the region. Asian central banks have followed the lead of the US Federal Reserve, but inflationary pressures have not been as acute, and rate expectations are now peaking. This should support Asian economies in the year ahead.

Unlike many Western economies, there is still structural growth in Asia. Many mature economies have a growth problem that is likely to continue even as the interest rate cycle turns. Debt burdens built up during the pandemic may constrain economic activity in the near-term. In contrast, the long-term growth drivers for Asia are still intact – a growing middle class, rising consumer spending, low debt and innovation. 

Finding the right opportunities 

This stronger economic growth backdrop should support the Asian corporate sector. Companies across the region are undoubtedly seeing rising input costs and margins coming under pressure, though this eased in the final quarter of 2022. abrdn New Dawn Investment Trust has been focused on finding those companies with strong and leading market positions, giving them power in pricing and procurement. This has helped protect the trust against earnings downgrades. These have stepped up as economic growth has weakened

Markets have re-priced over the year, with valuations far lower than at the start of 2022. Valuations are now at a level likely to appeal to trade buyers and this may be a catalyst for merger and acquisition activity. Companies have sufficient cash to fund acquisitions if they find the right opportunities. India is the notable exception, where valuations are high after a resilient year for the country’s stock markets. 

The China situation

China’s revival will be important in the year ahead. abrdn New Dawn has been underweight China but has made selective investments there more recently and is overweight Hong Kong. There has been a high profile shift in the government’s handling of Covid, with the country opening up travel and reducing quarantine requirements. There has also been some improvement in the country’s fragile property sector. 

China is still home to a range of innovative companies and is an important driver for economic growth in the wider region. We have reinvested in online food delivery business, Meituan Dianping, which has resolved its regulatory concerns. We also hold AIA Group in Hong Kong, which should be a beneficiary of China’s reopening, while also benefiting from the interest rate cycle. 

The wider portfolio

The financial sector should be a key beneficiary of the reopening in China and elsewhere, with demand for credit growth increasing and higher interest rates allowing for improved margins. The trust holds a number of banks in India, playing on the domestic growth theme, but also in smaller Asian markets where financial inclusion is increasing. 

The abrdn Indian Equity Fund remains the largest single holding in abrdn New Dawn. India is dependent on imported oil, and oil prices have dipped in recent months, inflation remains benign and Indian companies continue to deliver strong earnings. The economy is also supported by a cyclical recovery in infrastructure, increased government spending and credit growth. 

Regional giants, such as TSMC and Samsung had a tough year in 2022, but a recovery in the memory sector is likely in the year ahead as supply chains unlock and demand revives. Valuations also look more attractive. The trust retains exposure to the sector, albeit at a lower level than at the start of 2022. 

2022 was a tough year. 2023 should be a better year, but with global recession risk looming, it won’t be plain sailing. However, Asia is in a better place to the rest of the world and a focus on quality companies should bring resilience. 

Companies selected for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the investment management style described herein and not as an investment recommendation or indication of future performance.

Important information

Risk factors you should consider prior to investing:

  • The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than the amount invested. 
  • Past performance is not a guide to future results. 
  • Investment in the Company may not be appropriate for investors who plan to withdraw their money within 5 years. 
  • The Company may borrow to finance further investment (gearing). The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV) meaning that any movement in the value of the company’s assets will result in a magnified movement in the NAV. 
  • The Company may accumulate investment positions which represent more than normal trading volumes which may make it difficult to realise investments and may lead to volatility in the market price of the Company’s shares. 
  • The Company may charge expenses to capital which may erode the capital value of the investment. 
  • Movements in exchange rates will impact on both the level of income received and the capital value of your investment. 
  • There is no guarantee that the market price of the Company’s shares will fully reflect their underlying Net Asset Value. 
  • As with all stock exchange investments the value of the Company’s shares purchased will immediately fall by the difference between the buying and selling prices, the bid-offer spread. If trading volumes fall, the bid-offer spread can widen. 
  • The Company invests in emerging markets which tend to be more volatile than mature markets and the value of your investment could move sharply up or down. 
  • Yields are estimated figures and may fluctuate, there are no guarantees that future dividends will match or exceed historic dividends and certain investors may be subject to further tax on dividends.

Other important information:

Issued by abrdn Fund Managers Limited, registered in England and Wales (740118) at 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4AG. abrdn Investments Limited, registered in Scotland (No. 108419), 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1XL. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK.

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NatWest, Tekcapital, and the FTSE 100 at 8,000 with Alan Green

Alan Green joins the UK Investor Magazine Podcast for a deep dive into a selection of UK equities and the key market themes.

We discuss:

  • Natwest (LON:NWG)
  • Tekcapital (LON:TEK)
  • Logistics Development Group (LON:LDG)

NatWest shares fell on Friday after the UK bank’s profit before tax grew to £5.1bn in 2022 from £3.9bn in the year prior. However it was their outlook that worried investors. We run through the numbers.

Tekcapital’s Guident has signed a partnership to provide remote safety monitoring and  human-in-the-loop supervision to Auve Tech’s new MiCa autonomous shuttle. We discuss Tekcapital’s portfolio and upcoming MicroSalt IPO.

We finish with a look at Logistics Development Group.

FTSE 100 dips back beneath 8,000

After breaching 8,000 yesterday, the index smashed through the milestone level on Thursday trade as high as 8,047, before easing back.

The FTSE 100 was trading at 7,985 at the time of writing with the historic 8,000 failing to hold as support.

“For an index that’s been unloved for years, it’s refreshing to see the FTSE find its rhythm as this could help it win back some of the investors who turned their backs in 2016 when the Brexit vote was cast,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

The index was supported by favourable earnings updates from Centrica, Standard Chartered and RELX, as well as continued interest in Vodafone.

“Helping to drive the index on Thursday was Relx, up 3.2% after its full-year results were well received. Despite being one of the UK market’s biggest companies, Relx tends to stay out of the spotlight and is often underappreciated by investors. In a nutshell it provides information to people working in industries such as legal and insurance to help them do their job in a better way,” Mould said.

Vodafone shares were 3.4% to the good after Liberty Global acquired a 5% stake in the FTSE 100 telecoms company earlier this week.

Heavyweight selling

Despite a raft of positive corporate news on Thursday, investors sold market cap heavyweights including AstraZeneca, Unilever and Shell which ultimately resulted in the FTSE 100 slipping below 8,000.

Imperial Brands and Berkeley Group were the top fallers.

Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered investors will be pleased their board issued a more upbeat outlook than Barclays did yesterday as shares in the emerging markets bank gained 2.5% on Thursday.

Standard Chartered upgraded their expectations for the year ahead after profit before tax rose 15% in 2022. The group earns most of their profit before tax in Asia and is well placed for a recovery in the Chinese economy.

Centrica

Centrica was the FTSE 100’s top gainer after the British Gas owner’s adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to £3.5bn on the back of higher gas prices. Free cash flow increased to £2.5bn as the company announced a £250m share buyback.

Centrica shares were 5% higher to 103p at the time of writing on Thursday.

Standard Chartered shares enjoy outlook upgrade

Standard Chartered’s bullish perspective on the year ahead helped their shares higher on Thursday as the group increased their earnings expectations for the year ahead.

“We continue to make significant progress against the five strategic actions outlined last year, and we remain confident in the delivery of our financial targets,” said Bill Winters, Standard Chartered Chief Executive.

“We are upgrading our expectations, and are now targeting a return on tangible equity approaching 10% in 2023, to exceed 11% in 2024, and to continue to grow thereafter.”

The positive outlook was at odds with Barclays‘ clouded perception of growth in 2023 outlined in their results yesterday. Barclays’ outlook was dominated by concerns around the health of the UK economy and UK rate trajectories. This is problem Standard Chartered does not have.

Although both banks enjoyed the higher interest rate environment last year, Standard Chartered are focused on emerging markets and are benefiting from growth in their key markets.

“In many ways Standard Chartered’s 2022 results are similar to those of Barclays, but the shares are getting a much warmer reception because the outlook statement reads much more positively,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“Both banks recorded multi-year highs in profits and dividends last year, even if both were held back by loan losses and other one-off costs, and they have each extended share buyback programmes for this year.”

Standard Chartered are to return $2.8bn in buybacks and dividends back to shareholders.

Seize China opportunity

One of Standard Chartered’s key strategic actions is to ‘Seize China opportunity’. This is an attractive proposition for investors as the world’s second largest economy recovers from a prolonged coronavirus restrictions.

Despite the restrictions, Standard Chartered produced a 10% year-on-year increase in income from on-shore China in 2022. This could well accelerate in the year to come.

Standard Chartered generated $3.7bn of their $4.8bn total group profit before tax in Asia last year.

Centrica reaps the rewards of higher gas prices

After years of low profitability, dividend cuts and balance sheet concerns, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia elevated energy prices and provided the conditions for Centrica to unleash their earnings potential.

Centrica’s EPS for 2022 rose to 34.9p from 4.1p in 2021 as higher gas prices bolstered revenue by 61% to £23.7bn.

With customer numbers for their retail business only growing 2%, the lion’s share of Centrica’s revenue growth was achieved by price inflation in their British Gas retail and business supply, and increased marketing and trading activity.

Net cash rose to £1.2bn at the end of 2022 compare to £0.7bn at the end of 2021.

The higher energy price environment permitted Centrica to reinstate their progressive dividend policy and will pay 3p for the 2022 full year.

“There will no doubt be howls of anguish and pain at the news that British Gas owner, Centrica, has today reported a 700% jump in profits from almost £400m to just over £2,800m, with earnings per share rising even faster from 2.8p to 34.2p. Despite that huge increase, British Gas saw profits fall 39% to £72m, in no small part due to the company spending £75m on customer assistance measures,” said Steve Clayton, Head of Equity Funds at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The huge dichotomy between a group that makes billions and British Gas making millions is because the money is being made in the North Sea and beyond, where the energy is brought out of the ground at high prices. British Gas’s realm is onshore, where gas must be piped around through expensive networks and sold at thin margins in a market with many competitors.”

AIM movers: CPP InsureTech partnerships and ex-dividends

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CPP Group (LON: CPP) says that its InsurTech business, Blink Parametric, has signed a new partnership agreement for its flight disruption product with a European insurer. Two contracts have been extended with Canadian partners. Another strategic partnership has been secured with Firemelon, a provider of travel insurance systems to tour operators, which will include Blink’s real time platform in its systems. The shares are 11.4% higher at 206p.

The AGM statement of Tertiary Minerals (LON: TYM) underlines the focus on copper exploration in Zambia and Nevada. The Brunton Pass project in Nevada is the primary focus for 2023. The company has received historical data for the Mukai and Mushima North projects in Zambia, which are near to existing projects and mineralisation. Exploration targets are being identified and field programmes should commence in the next couple of months. There was a 10.2% share price rise to 0.135p.

Falcon Oil & Gas (LON: FOG) has commenced fracking on a well for the within the Amungee Member B shale at the Amungee NW-2H well in the Betaloo Basin, Australia. This will take up to three weeks. This is the first of two horizontal wells. The share price improved by 6.74% to 10.3p.

Libertine Holdings (LON: LIB) is linking up with Sweden-based Azelio to integrate and licence Libertine’s HEXAGEN platform with its energy storage technology. The two companies have worked together since 2020 to evaluate the technology. The share price rose 7.69% to 21p.

Deferral of contracts by clients has led to forecast downgrades for Jaywing (LON: JWNG) and 2022-23 pre-tax profit expectations have been more than halved to £1m, while next year’s forecast has been slashed from £3.7m to £2m. The digital marketing services provider has won an Australian online education services contract that helps to offset some of the expected decline in revenues in 2023-24. The share price slumped 21.8% to 5.375p.

Medical device developer Creo Medical (LON: CREO) is raising £25m at 20p a share and could raise a further £5.2m from an open offer. The share price fell 18% to 22.75p. However, the share price was below 20p earlier in the week. The cash will be used for further development and commercialisation of its minimally invasive electrosurgical devices. Management believes that there could be enough money to reach cash flow breakeven. Directors and management are investing £2.1m.

Asset manager AssetCo (LON: ASTO) has £3.1bn of assets under management, including the recently purchased SVM Asset Management. A loss was reported for the year to September 2022, but that was mainly due to costs and write-downs related to acquisitions. AssetCo is seeking further acquisitions, but this year’s figures will provide a more realistic indication of the underlying profitability of the group after its recent acquisitions. The share price declined 10.5% to 68p.

Baron Oil (LON: BOIL) has published the CPR for the Inner Moray Firth licence P2478 in the North Sea, where Baron Oil has a 32% interest and the operator is Reabold Resources (LON: RBD), which has a 36% stake. Fully listed Upland Resources (LON: UPL) owns the rest. The Dunrobin West prospect has prospective resource of 201mm barrels of oil equivalent gross with a 34% probability of success. The main risks relate to the trap and seal. Baron Oil shares fell 7.5% to 0.235p, although Reabold Resources shares are 2.08% higher at 0.245p.

Ex-dividends

i3 Energy (LON: I3E) is paying a dividend of 0.17p a share and the share price rose 0.12p to 20.02p.

Knights Group Holdings (LON: KGH) is paying an interim dividend of 1.53p a share and the share price fell 1.1p to 76.9p

Mattioli Woods (LON: MTW) is paying an interim dividend of 8.8p a share and the share price is 5p lower at 620p.

MJ Gleeson – low-cost home developer sees a 40% fall in profits this year

The half-time results to end December from MJ Gleeson (LON:GLE), the UK’s leading low-cost housebuilding group, showed a 1.4% fall in revenues to £171m and a 34.8% fall in pre-tax profits.

A lower forward order book in the first six months was further impacted by weaker sales after the mini-Budget.

However, average selling prices were up 15.6% at £186,400, perhaps reflecting higher cost prices.

Gleeson Homes’ customers are typically young, first-time buyers with a median income of £26,000.

The group’s current trading outlook notes that net reservations in the last four weeks have doubled from the low levels seen before Christmas but remain below the levels typically seen this time of the year.

The group, which sold 894 homes in the first half, is now targeting its full year completions at between 1,650 and 1,850 homes for the full year to end June 2023.

New CEO Graham Prothero stated that:

“We have an exciting opportunity to take Gleeson to the next level by delivering sustainable growth over the medium-term, across both our Homes and Land divisions.

 At the same time as managing through the lower levels of current market demand, I want to ensure that the Group is in the best possible shape to take advantage of the recovery which we are beginning to see early signs of.

In terms of guidance: confidence, underpinned by improved mortgage rates, is slowly returning to the market, evidenced by improving net reservations.”

Broker’s analysts are estimating a 40% fall in adjusted pre-tax profits for the end-June year’s figures, to £31.7m (£55.5m) on the back of some £347m (£373m) sales, taking earnings down from 70p to 42p per share. The question is whether the 15p dividend will be retained.

Both Singer Capital Markets and Liberum Capital are rating the group’s shares as a Buy, with Singers looking for 606p and Liberum 560p as their Target Prices.

Gleeson’s shares held steady at 454p after the results.