FTSE 100 steady as Sainsbury’s jumps on stake purchase

The FTSE 100 was muted on Friday after a week of company updates and economic data saw London’s leading index range bound.

The FTSE 100 was trading down 6 points at the time of writing, after spending much of the mornings session in positive territory.

“Despite a good showing on Wall Street last night thanks to better-than-expected US GDP figures, Friday was a damp squib for European stocks, with little change on the main indices,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Sainsbury’s

Despite the FTSE 100 bereft of direction on Friday, investors were surprised with the approximate £200m purchase of Sainsbury’s shares by wholesaler Bestway.

Merger and acquisition news has been thin on the ground of late and hints the Uk supermarket were once more catching the attention of potential suitors saw Sainsbury’s shares rise, taking Tesco with them.

Sainsbury’s shares were 4% higher while Tesco gained 0.8%.

“Bestway’s purchase of a stake in Sainsbury’s has come out of the blue. While Bestway says it doesn’t intend to make a bid now, there is logic in putting the two companies together, with echoes of how Tesco thrived from buying Bookers,” said Russ Mould.

“As the UK’s largest independent cash and carry business, Bestway’s strategy is to be seen as a place where retailers, caterers and cafes can obtain all the stock they need at a good price.”

“If Sainsbury’s was part of the same group, both sides could benefit. In theory, Bestway could tap into the supermarket’s buying power and obtain stock at a lower price, thus making its proposition more appealing for its customers. Sainsbury’s could expand its reach and have good access to a broader customer base including foodservice and pet shops, while also being able to compete better against Tesco.”

Morrisons was acquired by US private equity in recent years after a bitter takeover battle and speculation about interest in the UK’s other major supermarkets raises its head periodically.

There is not yet any evidence Bestway’s intention is to attempt a full takeover of Sainsbury’s.

Elsewhere, oil majors BP and Shell were supporting the index as oil prices rose and UK-focused stocks put in a respectable performance.

Housebuilders were stronger, as were the UK banks, ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision next week. Although the BoE is set to raise rates next week, there is a school of thought the UK’s central bank is nearing the end of their hiking cycle, and could even cut rates this year.

Cadence Minerals’ lithium portfolio bolstered by Evergreen IPO update

Cadence Minerals announced a significant development in their Evergreen Lithium investment this week as the Australia-focused lithium explorer files for admission to the ASX. 

Evergreen Lithium’s step towards becoming a listed company further supports Cadence’s lithium portfolio which will consist of two listed lithium plays within months.

According to the listing documents filed with the ASX, Evergreen are seeking to raise A$7m at an issue price of A$0.25. The fundraise will value Evergreen Lithium at A$45.3m – Cadence’s 8.7% stake will be worth A$3.9m.

Evergreen Lithium’s flagship project is the Bynoe Lithium Project located near the Port of Darwin in the Northern Territory Australia.

The project is adjacent to Core Lithium’s Finnis project which hosts a JORC resource of 18.9mt at 1.32% Li2O. Core Lithium’s market cap is $2.06bn.

Given the proximity Core Lithium producing Finnis lithium project, the proposed A$45.3m valuation leaves plenty of room for upside in the value in Evergreen share price, should Evergreen’s Bynoe project hold anywhere near the same grade or size of lithium resource as Finnis.

The IPO will fund an exploration programme that will focus on the EL31774 tenement, the sole license within the Bynoe project.

Cadence could possibly benefit from further milestone payment made in shares should the exploration programme prove fruitful. If Evergreen’s Bynoe project is found to host a lithium JORC resource, Cadence will receive additional shares on a tiered basis, depending on the size of the resource. The milestone are a JORC resources of 4mt, 8mt and 12mt, at a grade of not less than 1.1% lithium oxide.

Of the individual parties in line to receive additional shares should the milestones be met, Cadence Minerals is set to receive the most shares.

Cadence Minerals Lithium portfolio

The Evergreen IPO will provide Cadence Mineral’s investors with clearer visibility of the valuation of their now substantial lithium portfolio, which also includes European Metals Holdings.

European Metals Holdings operates the Cinovec project in the Czech Republic which is thought to be Europe’s largest hard rock lithium deposit.

Cadence Minerals holds a 8.1% stake in £72m market capitalised European Metals Holdings.

At current valuations, Cadence’s stakes in European Metals Holdings and Evergreen combined are worth in the region of £8m.

Tekcapital demonstrates ability to create value ahead of MicroSalt IPO

This week, Tekcapital have further validated their strategy to develop university technology into businesses that have the potential to help a great number of people after their portfolio company MicroSalt achieved a $20m valuation.

Tekcapital has a 97% stake in MicroSalt and the latest valuation is well in excess of $7m valuation given to MicroSalt through a VC investment in mid-2022.

Tekcapital converted the outstanding convertible loan note in MicroSalt at $2.18 which now values MicroSalt at $20m.

Having appointed Zeus Capital as their AIM NOMAD in December, MicroSalt are gearing up for an IPO in 2023 which will unlock the value created in MicroSalt by Tekcapital.

MicroSalt’s technology reduces sodium in salt by 50% and can help the millions of people suffering from cardiovascular diseases.

There is a proven link between high sodium salt intake and cardiovascular disease which is responsible for the deaths of 17.9 million people each year.

MicroSalt’s products are now available in thousands of Kroger supermarkets in the United States and there is an understanding the company plans to launch their low-sodium salt shakers and crisps in additional markets.

Tekcapital portfolio

Should MicroSalt float this year, it will be the latest in a series of Tekcapital success stories that include Belluscura and Innovative Eyewear.

Tekcapital seek to provide a broader range of investors with access to technology companies at the early stage of their growth cycles through IPOs.

This is notably different approach to keeping companies private for longer and restricting the number of investors able to secure a stake in companies at the stages with potential for significant long term returns.

This has been demonstrated in Belluscura and the IPO at 45p in 2021. Belluscura subsequently provided early investors and IPO participants with share price highs above 130p, before falling back.

Tekcapital have also recently navigated challenging market conditions to secure growth capital for Innovative Eyewear through a NASDAQ listing in August 2022.

AIM movers: Sovereign Metals drilling release expected and Alpha Growth NAV decline

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Trading in Sovereign Metals (LON: SVML) shares has been halted on the ASX, but on AIM there has been a 19.6% rise to 27.5p. There are plans to release infill drilling results at the Kasiya rutile project in Malawi. This is near to the Mkango Resources (LON: MKA) Songwe Hill rare earths project, which has received approval from the environmental authorities. Sovereign Metals is demerging its graphite interests.

Inspecs (LON: SPEC) shares continue to rise following yesterday’ positive trading statement. It is a 21.8% ahead at 114.5p. The share price is back to around the level it was before the previous profit warning.

Ironveld (LON: IRON) is entering into a joint venture with Pace SA to produce and sell Dense Media Separation grade magnetite from the company’s mine in Limpopo, South Africa. Pace will provide the initial cash investment of £1.65m for a 50% stake in the joint venture. First production is expected in the middle of 2023. The share price is 3.23% higher at 0.32p. This is the highest it has been for more than six months.

Investment company APQ Global (LON: APQ) reported net assets of 7.29p a share at the end of 2022, down from 981p a share at the end of November 2022. The share price fell 7.14% to 6.5p.

Faron Pharmaceuticals (LON: FARN) has raised €12m at €3.25 a share. Additional data from the study of Bexmarilimab as a treatment for haematological malignancies is encouraging and the cash will accelerate the development. The cash was also required to meet financial covenants. The share price improved by 6.62% to 317.5p.

Goldstone Resources (LON: GRL) issued a £2.4m convertible loan note and 60 million warrants exercisable at 4p each to Blue Gold International. The share price fell 5.19% to 3.65p. The conversion price is 3.25p a share. The cash will help to expand the Homase gold mine in Ghana. Blue Gold owns 90% of the Bogoso Prestea gold mine in Ghana.  

Trading in Applied Graphite Materials (LON: AGM) shares will be suspended on 1 February due to the annual report not being published. The share price fell 6.5% to 5.75p.

Superdry – strong Christmas period retail sales but remaining cautious for this year

Boss Julian Dunkerton believes that his iconic Superdry (LON:SDRY) brand now has real momentum and he was delighted by how the group’s retail trading had continued to strengthen.

However, in the first half year, covering the 26 weeks to 29th October, the group was let down by the poor performance of its wholesale operations.

The interim results reported a 3.6% increase in group revenue to £287.2m (£277.2m) with the adjusted pre-tax loss coming out at £13.6m (£2.8m loss).

Including the nine weeks to end December the group saw stores revenues rising 14.3% to £117.7m as its customers returned to the high streets, with the group seeing strong demand for its womenswear, denim and jackets.

The wholesale side suffered from the lagged recovery after Covid combined with shipment timing.

The group is known globally for its distinct collections of affordable, premium quality clothing, accessories and footwear. There are 219 physical stores, around 450 franchisees and licensees, with the group selling in over countries across the world.

Boss Julian Dunkerton stated that:

“The Superdry brand has real momentum and I’m delighted by how our retail trading continues to strengthen. We’ve done this against a difficult macroeconomic backdrop by delivering well-designed, affordable, and responsibly sourced products which have resonated well with customers. 

Our coats performed really well in the run up to Christmas, and womenswear continues to be a highlight for us. Stores continued to recover strongly and online had its biggest ever week over Black Friday, helped by our new ecommerce platform which is delivering real benefits.

Despite the underlying brand recovery, our profits in the first half fell short of expectations mainly due to the underperformance of Wholesale.

Whilst we did trade well through November and December, the outlook for the remainder of the year is uncertain and as a result, we are moderating our profit outlook to broadly breakeven. We don’t expect market conditions to become easier any time soon, but with a new financing package in place and the brand in great health, we approach the year ahead with optimism.”

Analyst Wayne Brown at Liberum Capital has reiterated his view that Superdry shares are cheap and offer significant long-term value. 

For the year to end April 2023 he is estimating £604m (£610m) group revenues, with a £5.8m pre-tax loss (£21.9m profit), but with net debt falling by £20m to £198m.

The coming year sees Brown looking for £645m sales, £8.8m profits and earnings of 8.2p per share.

He has a Buy rating on its shares looking for 500p in due course.

FTSE 100 extends gains after the US grows more than expected

The FTSE 100 extended gains on Thursday afternoon after the United States grew more than expected in the 4th quarter and US tech stocks continued to rally. US GDP grew 2.9% on an annualised basis, compared to estimates of 2.6% growth.

US GDP figures released on Thursday provided the cue for investors to buy risk assets on hopes the damaging recession predicted last year may not come to pass.

After the release of US GDP today, attention will quickly shift to tomorrow’s instalment of US personal spending and housing data. These data points will influence the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rates due next month. 

The FTSE 100 was gaining 0.3% at the time of writing.

Despite a raft of updates from UK companies, the focus has largely been on the United States this week and UK equities have broadly been ebbing and flowing in line with markets over the pond.

In addition to key economic data, the US tech sector has been a major factor driving sentiment as giants such as Microsoft and Tesla update investors.

Tesla beat earnings expectations overnight and jumped over 10% on Thursday as US trade began.

Diageo

FTSE 100 stalwart Diageo disappointed markets on Thursday and dragged on the index after the alcoholic drinks company said they saw weaker organic growth. Nonetheless, reported net sales in the six months ended 31st December grew 18.4% in a challenging environment.

“It’s glass half empty time for Diageo, which poured out some resilient results showing a surge in super-premium brand drinks, but disappointed in its outlook for the all-important American market,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Shares fell as investors eyed up the lack of cheer ahead as Americans tighten their belts amid the downturn. Diageo has been benefiting from ongoing pandemic habits, when people turned to favourite pricier tipples, including the likes of Johnnie Walker and Tanqueray, for lockdown distraction.”

A sharp increase in net asset value (NAV) helped 3i Group shares rally 9% on Thursday. The private equity and infrastructure group enjoyed a 26.8% increase in NAV for the nine months to 31 December 2022.

Inspecs sees improvement and ex-dividends

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Slightly higher than expected 2022 revenues and profit were enough to push spectacles supplier Inspecs (LON: SPEC) was enough to push the share price 36.8% higher at 85.5p. The figures are still much worse than expected six months ago due to destocking and poorly performing businesses. Sales were flat at $246m, although there was growth before currency movements. Pre-tax profit is set to more than halve from $17.9m to $7.7m. Trading is improving.

Healthcare data analysis provider Diaceutics (LON: DXRX) beat expectations with revenues 44% higher at £20m, helped by currency movements, and margins are being maintained despite inflationary pressures. Diaceutics has secured two agreements with top ten global pharma companies. The order book is worth £15.6m. Investment in data and technology is being increased. The share price jumped 20.9% to 95.5p.

Competitions organiser Best of the Best (LON: BOTB) reported interim revenues in line with expectations. Two midweek competitions have been consolidated, which will reduce revenues, but profit forecasts are maintained at £5.5m. New shareholder Globe Invest is in discussions with the company concerning potential international expansion. The share price is 15.9% higher at 475p – the highest it has been since July.

Bus operator Rotala (LON: ROL) is returning £10m to shareholders via a tender offer at 55p a share. The share price rose 17.1% to 48p. Eligible shareholder can tender 35.7% of their shares. Cash will be generated by the sale of the Bolton depot and bus fleet.

Battery technology developer Ilika (LON: IKA) will receive a UK grant of £2.8m for development of its Goliath battery and taking a leading role on a 24-month Faraday Battery Challenge collaboration with BMW and Williams. This is designed to develop cost-effective, recyclable batteries. The share price continued its improvement rising a further 15.3% to 56.5p.

Supercapacitors manufacturer CAP-XX (LON: CPX) is the worst performing company with a 29.1% decline to 3.175p after it reported that interim revenues were one-third lower at A$1.6m.  A full year loss of A$1m is expected.

Window fittings manufacturer Titon (LON: TON) slipped into loss last year and it is set to continue to lose money this year. Software problems appear to have been sorted out and supply chain problems are easing. Revenues should start to grow again. The share price slipped 6.67% to 70p. Net cash is £1.7m and Titon is trading at discount to book value of well over two-fifths.

Animalcare (LON: ANCR) says 2022 revenues fell from £74m to £71.6m. Spending on pets has fallen from high levels during Covid lockdowns and distribution agreements ended. Net debt is £5.4m. The share price dipped 6.25% to 187.5p.

Mixer drinks supplier Fevertree Drinks (LON: FEVR) surprised the market with full year revenues 3% below expectations. This led to EBITDA guidance being cut to £36m- £42m. Taking the mid-point of the range that is a reduction of more than one-fifth on the previous consensus forecasts. Costs are continuing to rise, and profit could be flat in 2023. The share price fell 4.43% to 1067.5p, although it had been below 1000p at one point.

Ex-dividends

BP Marsh (LON: BPM) is paying an interim dividend of 1.39p a share and the share price is unchanged at 338p.

Brickability (LON: BRCK) is paying an interim dividend of 1.01p a share and the share price is down 1p to 64.5p.

Panther Securities (LON: PNS) is paying a dividend of 10p a share and the share price is unchanged at 315p.

RWS Holdings (LON: RWS) is paying a final dividend of 9.5p a share and the share price is 8.1p lower at 378.7p.

Solid State (LON: SOLI) is paying an interim dividend of 6.5p a share and the share price is unchanged at 1325p.

Tracsis (LON: TRCS) is paying a final dividend of 1.1p a share and the share price is unchanged at 981p.

CLIQ Digital set for further revenue growth to support shareholder value creation

CLIQ Digital (ETR:CLIQ) sell subscription-based streaming services that bundle movies & series, music, audiobooks, sports and games to consumers globally and are now creating shareholder value through increased revenue.

CLIQ Digital have produced consistent revenue growth since the beginning of 2019 and in the most recent quarter recorded a bumper 91% increase in sales. 

CLIQ shares are up 54% over the past year to €28.50 and analysts see additional upside to their median fair value price target of €70.

The company is due to report next week and results will be closely watched for further progress in their key profitability metrics to support their already attractive valuation.

Established market position 

CLIQ’s success lies in their approach to marketing by sparking the interest of the online consumer in numerous streaming services via a well-designed banner, followed by a membership offer which includes a free trial period. To gain traction in a market with a number of incumbent streaming competitors, CLIQ have taken a more personalised approach to securing memberships.

The strategy has been a two-pronged approach in the targeting of individuals with direct personalised marketing and the creation of services appealing to different groups of media consumers. 

Their approach has gained them 1.8 million paid memberships and €8.3m operating free cash flow.

CLIQ Digital have carved out a niche in the streaming market

CLIQ licences its streaming content from partners across those multiple categories. The company stores, bundles and curates digital content in its digital content warehouse. Within the CLIQ Tech Hub data-driven marketing and business knowledge is combined with the company’s digital content warehouse. This enables CLIQ to create attractive streaming services.

Over the years, CLIQ have become experts in online advertising and currently have 1.8 million paid memberships on numerous streaming services across 30+ countries.

CLIQ’s strong track record in building streaming services has brought it closer to achieving its dream: cliq.de – the company’s most advanced all-in-one streaming service for the mass market, which makes streaming content accessible to everyone in Germany.

CLIQ Digital recognises the power of targeted advertising 

The mass marketing approach is not appropriate for specialised streaming service. This is one of the reasons CLIQ is selling a bundled streaming service which includes movies & series, music, audiobooks, sports and games. The all-in-one streaming service enables CLIQ to target a wide variety of consumers with the streaming content they like. Direct marketing focuses on effective cost per acquisition as opposed to expensive brand building. 

To facilitate their long-term growth ambitions, CLIQ have developed an intricate marketing strategy that focuses on converting customers in a cost-effective manner from online advertising campaigns.

Consistently increasing revenue

CLIQ is debt free and have supported their growth through significant increases in revenue. Sales grew 91% in Q3 2022 compared to the same period a year ago. EBITDA grew 68% over the same period.

The company will report 2022 preliminary results 31st January. 

Profit upgrade for Time Finance

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Small business finance provider Time Finance (LON: TIME) is trading well ahead of previous expectations for this year and this has sparked a profit upgrade. The momentum suggests that there could be further upgrades to come for next year. Time Finance continues to be valued at a large discount to its net tangible assets.

In the six months to November 2022, revenues were 12% ahead at £13.2m, while pre-tax profit was two-thirds higher at £2m. This shows the operational gearing of the business, with admin expenses reducing year on year. Most of the increase in interest rates is being passed onto clients.

Non-core businesses have been sold and the unsecured loan book is being run down. This enables management to focus on the invoice discounting, asset finance and secured loans businesses, while adding selected products to expand the range offered to small businesses.

Lending

In the past six months, the gross lending book has risen from £136.8m to £152.7m. The average deal size has risen to £27,000 and management would like it to be higher. Year-on-year net deals in arrears have fallen from £10.5m to £8.7m, despite that increase in the lending book.

A good spread of sectors means that the company is not dependent on any area. In tough economic times there is likely to be increasing demand from small businesses for the types of finance provided by the company.

There is £40m of headroom in Time Finance’s loan facilities with potential for £15m to be added. This should provide adequate funding well into 2024.

Net tangible assets are £32.1m. At 23.2p, the market capitalisation is £21.5m.

Forecasts

Time Finance has guided pre-tax profit estimates upwards from £2.8m to £3.2m on a 3% upgrade in revenues. Management is still cautious and will know more about the market after February. That is why the second half growth expectation is currently modest in relation to the interim outcome.

The shares are trading on eight times prospective 2022-23 earnings. Cenkos has not changed 2023-24 forecasts, but they already indicate significant growth with a pre-tax profit estimate of £4.6m on a 13% improvement in revenues.

Time Finance share price has been on a downward trajectory for years. There have been short-term upticks, but the latest improvement since September last year appears to be gaining momentum suggesting that there should be further to go.

Tate & Lyle shares jump as food price inflation drives revenue higher

Tate & Lyle have combatted rising input prices by increasing their food prices driving which drove group revenue higher by 16% in the three months ended 31st December.

Their Food & Beverage Solutions unit was the standout performer with revenue increasing 19%. Due to the timing of orders earlier this year, the Sucralose unit saw revenue fall 8%, as expected.

Tate & Lyle says they see revenue increasing in the coming year and are confident in maintaining cost discipline. The group says profit will be broadly in line with expectations.

Tate & Lyle shares were 4% higher at 755p at the time of writing.

“Third quarter trading was robust at Tate & Lyle, with double digit revenue growth showing resilient demand in the face of a round of price hikes and broader economic uncertainty. It’s pleasing to see no material growth slowdown in North America, despite ongoing supple chain troubles, and volumes across the Food & Beverage Solutions business look to be holding up despite the higher prices,” said Matt Britzman, Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

We expected a slowdown in sales from the Sucralose division, as Tate pushed orders through the first half of the year – effectively front-loading performance there. The Primient joint venture looks to be benefiting from planned price hikes and we’d expected to see performance continue to improve as we move through the second half and margins recover – it’s good to hear that’s progressing as expected.”