Seeing Machines – proceeding safely to record results

A greater focus on safety by regulatory bodies across all transport sectors globally, is very good news for this company.

That focus is really helping this group to proceed safely.

The Seeing Machines (LON: SEE) group is an advanced computer vision technology company that designs AI-powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety.

Regulatory tailwinds and industry momentum supports continued growth

In the first half year to the end of December 2022 the group saw revenues up 54% from $15.8m to $24.4m, with an end period cash balance of $52.2m ($40.5m end June).

The net loss was reduced by 47% to $5.4m ($10.1m), while the annual recurring revenue was increased nearly 17% to $11.9m ($10.2m).

The safety focus tailwinds are boosting the expansion of the company’s addressable market, adding to the attractive structural growth drivers in the Automotive, Aftermarket and Aviation sectors.

The Business

This group has come a long way over the last 23 years, from the 1997 research work into vision-based human-machine interfaces undertaken by Volvo Technology of Sweden and researchers at the Australian National University.

That work was to develop technologies that enable computers to detect, track and interpret human faces and facial features, with the initial aim to improve driver safety.

Three years later the company was set up.

Today the group, headquartered in Australia, is a global industry leader in vision-based monitoring technology that enable machines to see, understand and assist people. Seeing Machines is revolutionising global transport safety.

Its technology portfolio of AI algorithms, embedded processing and optics, power products that need to deliver reliable real-time understanding of vehicle operators.

The technology spans the critical measurement of where a driver is looking, through to classification of their cognitive state as it applies to accident risk.

Reliable “driver state” measurement is the end-goal of Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) technology.

Seeing Machines develops DMS technology to drive safety for Automotive, Commercial Fleet, Off-road and Aviation.

The company has offices in Australia, USA, Europe and Asia, and supplies technology solutions and services to industry leaders in each market vertical.

The group is continuing to grow as an automotive technology leader in driver and occupant monitoring system technology, having now won a total of 15 automotive programs spanning 10 individual OEMs, covering more than 160 distinct vehicle models.

The cumulative initial lifetime value of all OEM programs that Seeing Machines has won to date now stands at $321m.

The company reported a total of 701,049 cars on road as at 31 December 2022, representing an increase of 188% over the 12 months period (243,722) spanning six individual programs with four global OEMs.

Guardian, Seeing Machines’ Aftermarket driver distraction and fatigue technology, is now installed into and monitoring 46,018 individual vehicles, compared to 36,933 in December 2021 representing a 25% increase over the 12-month period.

CEO Paul McGlone stated that:

“We are pleased with the continued progress made during the first half of the year. Transport safety has moved meaningfully up the regulatory agenda around the world and our market leadership, scalability and balance sheet strength means we are ideally positioned to deliver on our business objectives.

Whether inside the car, cabin or cockpit, our mission-critical technology is achieving strong take-up by a range of customers.

Whilst we have contended with some industry wide supply chain challenges relating to automotive manufacturing, we expect the impact of these to ease on our Aftermarket business in the second half of the year and are confident of meeting FY2023 expectations.”

Analyst Opinion – a Target Price of 24.3p

Consensus expectations for FY2023 are for revenue of $53.9m and EBITDA of $(12.7m).

John-Marc Bunce at Cenkos Securities has a Buy recommendation out on the group’s shares, with a 23.8p Target Price.

His estimates for the current year to end June 2023 are for $53.5m ($35.6m) sales with a reduced adjusted pre-tax loss of $15.2m ($16.9m) and ending the year with a $6.4m net cash position.

The heavier spend in the coming year, he reckons, could see a $16.7m net debt, but with $62.6m revenues and a significantly reduced loss of $6.6m.

For the 2025-year Bunce estimates a major advance, with sales of $85.2m and a very healthy $15.0m profit, worth 0.3c per share in earnings.

Conclusion – a medium-term view on potential profitability

This £302m capitalised group has continued to grow as an automotive technology leader in driver and occupant monitoring system technology. 

Investors prepared to take a medium-term view could enjoy future participation in strong profitability.

The shares, which touched 13p in 2018, are currently trading at around the 7.25p level.

FTSE 100 falls ahead of crunch week for equities

Global markets are gearing up for a major week of economic data and central bank speeches which have the potential to rock equity markets after the strong start to 2023.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a two-day testimony to Congress this week and will be pressed on the scale of future rate hikes. Then on Friday, markets will receive the latest jobs numbers from the United States.

Equity markets have rallied sharply from the October low on hopes the Fed will pivot to slower rate hikes and eventually rate cuts. The timing of this pivot is crucial to sustaining the current rally.

If the Fed Chair suggests equity traders have prematurely priced in this pivot, one would expect equity volatility to increase. Friday’s jobs number will provide insight into the health of the US economy and will feature heavily in the Fed’s thinking around the next rate decision.

A strong US jobs number reduces the chance of slower rate hikes and increases the chance of disgruntled equity investors.

With this near-term risk on the horizon, the FTSE 100 fell 0.6% to 7,899 in early trade on Monday. US equity futures were pointing to a lower open.

China GDP

The FTSE 100 underperformed Europe as miners dragged the index after China said they were targeting 5% GDP growth.

Miners were among the worst fallers with Anglo American taking 4.2% and Rio Tinto giving up 3.6% of their value.

“Mining stocks helped hold the FTSE 100 back at the start of the week – reflecting disappointment around China flagging a lower-than-expected 5% target for economic growth, and, with its customary lack of transparency, giving no details on how exactly it is going to get there,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Although a 5% growth rate is less than markets are accustomed to, the context of this growth forecasts and lengthy COVID restrictions are put into perspective by RBC Wealth Management as they highlight an increase in underlying economic activity.

“A flurry of activity, to the surprise of many, has returned in China. Public transit ridership and airline travel are increasing, coinciding with lower COVID-19 cases. As the momentum continues, we think benefits for the global economy and select equities will emerge,” said Jasmine Duan, Investment Strategist at RBC Wealth Management.

Shaftesbury Capital formed after merger

0

Shaftesbury Capital (LON: SHC) has been formed following the completion of the merger of Shaftesbury and Capital and Counties Properties (LON: CAPC), although the name change does not become effective until 7 March. The fully listed central London-focused mixed-use REIT has a portfolio valued at £4.9bn.

Pro forma net tangible assets are £3.5bn or 192p a share, while net debt was £1.5bn at the end of 2022. Loan to value is 31%. Annualised gross income is £178m and the estimated rental value of the portfolio is £227m. There should be £12m of annualised cost savings from the merger.

According to Peel Hunt, Shaftesbury Capital could provide an average 10% accounting return over the next three years. A 2.9p a share dividend is forecast for 2023. The net tangible asset value could reach 199p by the end of 2023 with loan to value edging lower.

The current share price is 5.2p higher at 129.7p. That is a discount to net tangible assets of nearly one-third. If management can show that it is making progress with improving the profit performance and increases asset value. Peel Hunt forecasts earnings of 3.8p a share for 2024 and has set a share price target of 185p.

WANdisco deals fresh blow to London with US listing

AIM-listed WANdisco is the latest company to allude to a listing in the United States as the prominence of London’s equity markets is increasingly questioned.

WANdisco follows CRH’s decision last week to shift their primary listing to the United States as ARM Holdings snubs the UK in favour of a US IPO.

This morning, WANdisco released a statement in response to media speculation confirming they were ‘exploring’ a secondary listing in the United States.

WANdisco said in a statement:

“As a dual UK and US headquartered technology company, WANdisco has long-stated its intention to consider an additional listing of its ordinary shares in the United States. The company can confirm that it is in the early stages of proactively exploring this option.”

In the case of WANdisco, a US listing makes sense given their operational hub located over the pond. In the same light, CRH earns a significant proportion of their revenue from the US – core to their decision to shift to the US.

However, market participants highlight the impact of Brexit on London’s markets and the availability of capital in the US as a reason for seeking a US listing.

“It’s clear the attractiveness of the UK market has lost some appeal in recent years after the budget car crash of last year, Brexit red tape and instability at the heart of government,” said Joshua Raymond, Director at online investment platform XTB.com.

“London has long been thought of as a major financial centre and I don’t think the loss of these major firms to the US for their stock market listing changes that.”

“Stock market listings are about price stability and valuations. If firms believe they can get higher valuations in an equally reputable markets, it’s no surprise they will make that strategic move. Yet there’s no smoke without fire and both the UK government and regulator needs to take heed of these warning signs quickly if the UK is to maintain its place at the top table.”

UK-listed companies with secondary listings isn’t anything new and many companies list on other stock exchanges or OTC Market to gain access to additional capital. However, if this trend continues it may undermine London as the major financial centre described by Joshua Raymond.

AIM movers: Amur Minerals sells Russian project and Pantheon Resources loses investor confidence

0

Amur Minerals Corporation (LON: AMC) has completed the sale of the AO Kun-Manie project in Russia to Bering Metals. The $35m consideration should be received soon. A 1.8p a share dividend is planned, and Amur Minerals will become a cash shell. The share price recovered by 56.7% to 1.575p.

Plexus Holdings (LON: POS) has won a £5m contract for POS-GRIP wellhead equipment. This should generate £2.5m of revenues in the year to June 2023 – previously the forecasts revenues were £4m – with the rest next year. The share price jumped 43.9% to 4.1p.

Former ITM Power (LON: ITM) boss Dr Graham Cooley is becoming chair of Getech (LON: GTC) subsidiary H2 Green. He will help to develop hydrogen and renewable energy projects. The Getech share price rose by 10.3% to 16p.

Wealth management company Kingswood Holdings (LON: KWG) has appointed Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser to explore strategic options. That could include a sale of the UK businesses or attracting third party investment for them. The share price is 9.43% higher at 29p. This is the highest it has been since last March.

Alaska- focused oil and gas explorer Pantheon Resources (LON: PANR) disappointed with the flow rates from the Alkaid #2 well. It produced 505 barres/day of liquids and 2,300mcf/day of gas. The rates improved only slightly after cleaning out the well. The share price almost halved early in the morning because of investor doubts about company’s understanding of the reservoir. This could hit the terms for any farm-out. The share price is 40.4% lower at 31.59p.

Fusion Antibodies (LON: FAB) says delays in client investment have led to projects being suspended and that has hit the year to March 2023. This uncertainty is continuing, and full year revenues will be significantly below expectations but at least £2.8m. The share price slumped 42.1% to 27.5p.  

GreenRoc Mining (LON: GROC) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Norwegian Construction and Mining Group for the potential construction and mining of the Amitsoq graphite project in Greenland. A placing has raised £550,000 at 3.5p a share. The share price slipped by 12.8% to 3.75p. The cash will fund further test work on Amitsoq and commercial negotiations. The share price of Alba Mineral (LON: ALBA), which owns 50.6% of GreenRoc Mining, fell 8.33% to 0.11p.

IOG (LON: IOG) has spudded the Blythe H2 well and it will take three months to complete. The Blythe H1 well is being shut down for 12 days to enable the drilling. This will cost £13m before any tax benefits. This news follows Friday’s reserve and resources update, which reduced gross 2P reserves of the Blythe, Elgood and Southwark fields by more than 50% to 54.5bcf. The Southwark A2 well is not commercial. IOG needs to refinance its €100m bond by September 20224. The share price declined by 3.5% to 4.825p.

Are we in a bear market rally, and could we revisit recent equity lows?

When we talk of a bear market rally, we are of course referring to US equities. The threat of a bear market rally is centred on the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ. These indices contain the worlds largest public companies and are not only a representation of the US economy, but the global economy.

Market commentators tend to focus on the US as a global benchmark and the risks we discuss forthwith are centred on the United States’ leading indices.

The inverse relationship with the pound and overall defensive nature of the FTSE 100 meant London’s leading index avoided a bear market last year. This means the current rally in London’s leading index can’t be categorised as a bear market rally.

A bull or bear market is a move of 20% from peak to trough.

And for the same reasons the FTSE 100 avoided a bear market last year, it’s unlikely the FTSE 100 will enter a bear market this year. The reopening of China and the FTSE 100’s weighting towards China-exposed stocks will likely lead to FTSE 100 outperformance in any period of heightened equity volatility.

US equities

After battling back from the lows of last year, the S&P 500 is now 15% higher than the October low and the NASDAQ is 16% higher. The NASDAQ did very briefly rise above 12,100 in early February, which would have constituted a bull market, but it has since fallen back.

The premise of a bear market rally is that after entering a bear market, stocks rally but a bull market fails to materialise. This risks a revisiting of the lows.

The risk of slowing US economy, stuttering global growth, and Federal Reserve intent on further rate hikes poses a problem for stocks.

Global equities have rallied sharply on hopes slowing inflation is a precursor to lower interest rates. However, market pricing is at odds with recent Fed official suggestions of more 50bps rate hikes and an inflation rate remaining stubbornly high – even if it is receding slightly.

This is the core risk to the current rally.

Even if we start to see economic conditions deteriorating, the Fed must still bring inflation back to 2%. This makes any major u-turn on rates unlikely in the short-term and risks disappointment for equity traders.

Indeed, strategists at Morgan Stanley said stocks have rallied on a Fed pivot that isn’t coming. They also suggest company earnings are starting to suffer which isn’t conducive for higher equity valuations.

Ultimately, the current equity rally suggests investors have disregarded the mantra: ‘don’t fight the Fed’.

“Problematically, equity and credit markets are aggressively fighting the Fed, with valuations only supported by assumptions of ample rate cuts,” wrote Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management in a note to clients.

“History suggests these strategies often end in disappointment as cause and effect are conflated.”

If markets concluded fighting the Fed is futile, there is a chance the current rally reverses and October 2022 lows are revisited.

The equity upside scenario would require lower interest rates, sharp drops in inflation and economic strength.

This Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll will provide the next major instalment of economic data.

Aquis weekly movers: Western Selection stake

William Black has taken a 6.11% stake in Western Selection (LON: WESP). That pushed up the share price by 28.6% to 45p.

Quantum technology investment company Quantum Exponential Group (LON: QBIT) appointed Stuart Woods as chief operating and strategy officer. He is also involved in sector intelligence publisher The Quantum Insider. He was previously involved in quantum computing as Oxford Instruments.

Valereum (LON: VLRM) has formed a new subsidiary called Valereum Collections as part of the company’s digital collectible strategy. The share price recovered 7.41% to 7.25p.

Cadence Minerals (LON: KDNC) says the Hastings Technology Metals share price has fallen thereby reducing the value of the stake received when Cadence Minerals swapped its 30% stake in mineral concessions in the Yangibana rare earths project. Even so, Hastings is making progress in developing the mine and ore reserves increased by one-quarter to 20.93Mt at 0.9% total rare earth oxide grade. That increases the mine life to 17 years and production could start in 2024. Shipping of iron ore concentrate from the Amapa iron ore project should recommence in the next six months. The share price is 4.67% ahead at 14p.

==========

Fallers

The Semper Fortis Esports (LON: SEMP) share price has slumped by 52.8% to 01.25p. That was down to trading last Monday, where trading share prices fell from 0.25p to 0.1p over the day.  

TruSpine Technologies (LON: TSP) has still not received the promised bridge loan facility or a share subscription. A £200,000 loan has been received from a third party. This will provide working capital. The share price slumped 41.7% to 1.05p.

Selling early in the week knocked the British Honey Company (LON: BHC) share price and it fell by two-fifths to 11.25p.

Trading in Pioneer Media Holdings Inc (LON: PNER) will end on the Aquis Stock Exchange on 9 March, and the share price fell 35% to 6.5p.

Shares in emissions reducing fuel additives supplier SulNOx Group (SNOX) dived by 27.8% to 6.5p because RemNOx Ltd has not taken up the option to acquire a total of 24.08 million shares at 30p each from directors between 6 February and 28 February.

Trading in Wheelsure Holdings (LON: WHLP) shares is suspended because the accounts for the year to August 2022 have not been issued. Talks continue concerning a cash injection. Prior to suspension, the share price declined by 16.7% to 6.25p.

Voyager Life (LON: VOY) has sent a circular to shareholders for a general meeting to pass a waiver of an obligation for the concert party to bid for the company and enable more shares to be issued. The share price fell 10.4% to 12.1p.

KR1 (LON: KR1) had a net asset value of 60.6p a share at the end of January 2023. The share price dipped by 4.81% to 49.5p.

Invinity Energy Systems (LON: IES) is repaying the remaining $2.1m of its $2.5m convertible loan facility provided by RiverFort Global Opportunities out of the proceeds of the recent placing. There is a 10% redemption premium, making the total cost £1.92m. That stops dilution by the issue of six million shares. Related warrants can be exercised at 32p a share. There are 1.35 million warrants in issue with a further 499,980 warrants to be issued. The share price dipped by 3.08% to 31.5p.

Coinsilium (LON: COIN) says it has still not finalised a joint venture agreement with IOV Labs. The share price fell 2.63% to 1.85p.

AIM weekly movers: i-nexus Global bounces back

1

Cloud based software supplier i-nexus Global (LON: INX) shares have jumped 55.2% to 4.5p after a positive AGM statement. This is a bounce back from the all-time share price low. Double-digit growth is anticipated this year. Four new clients have been gained and existing clients are increasing usage. Dyfan T Williams has acquired a 4.56% stake in the company.

Active Energy Group (LON: AEG) has received a trademark for CoalSwitch in Canada. This follows trademark awards in the US and the UK. CoalSwitch is biomass technology that reduces carbon dioxide emissions by up to 99% compared with coal and 97% compared with gas. John Celaschi increased his stake from 9.76% to 10.1%. The share price increased 45.1% to 6.42p.

Gold explorer Panthera Resources (LON: PAT) has entered into a conditional arbitration funding agreement with a subsidiary of Litigation Capital Management (LON: LIT) for the damages claim against the Republic of India for breaches of its obligations under the Australia-India bilateral investment treaty. Up to $10.5m will be provided to cover the costs of the claim. The share price rose 40.4% to 6.25p.

Purplebricks (LON: PURP) has received approaches for the acquisition of the company or its businesses and the ongoing strategic review has been widened to include a formal sale process. This perked up the share price by 28.3% to 9.4p, which is the highest it has been since last August.

Hercules Site Services (LON: HERC) reached a share price peak last week, but a heavily discounted placing has knocked the share price by 37.8% to 44.8p leaving it below the placing price. The construction labour provider raised £1.7m at 45p a share. Last February’s flotation price was 50.5p. The cash will be used to fund growth in the labour supply division as well as the newer operations supplying security and white-collar staff.

Baron Oil (LON: BOIL) published the competent person report on the 75%-owned Chuditch gas project, which shows lower than expected prospective resources. Even so, Allenby believes that the 1.1tcf contingent resource for the Chuditch-1 discovery underpins the potential for the project and it has increased its risked valuation of Chuditch to 1.027p a share. Baron Oil has until 18 June to make a drill or drop commitment. The share price fell 28.4% to 0.161p.

Metal Tiger (LON: MTR) is proposing the cancellation of its AIM quotation so that it has more flexibility with its new investment strategy. A general meeting will be held on 20 March for shareholders to vote on the cancellation and the new investing policy. The company will remain listed on ASX. The share price dived by 28.1% to 9.35p.

Healthcare services provider Totally (LON: TLY) warns that although full year revenues will be in line with expectations increasing costs means that profit will be below forecasts. Canaccord Genuity has cut its 2022-23 pre-tax profit forecast from £5.8m to £3.8m, down from £4m the previous year. Net cash is expected to be £5.5m at the end of March 2023. The share price slumped 23.5% to 19.9p.

Proton therapy technology developer Advanced Oncotherapy (LON: AVO) has secured a convertible loan note facility of £4.95m. The lenders will also receive a portion of the revenues generated by the proton therapy machine installed in the Harley Street Centre, capped at £2.5m each year over a ten-year period. A short-term loan of £2.92m from a French counterparty has been switched into notes convertible at 25p a share and 1.25 million warrants exercisable at 25p each.  The share price fell 23.4% to 5.25p.

FTSE 100 gains in cyclical sector rally

The FTSE 100’s cyclical sectors were leading the way higher on Friday with the miners, financials and consumer stocks gaining and taking the FTSE 100 above 7,950.

Continuing the rally sparked by record Chinese manufacturing data earlier this week, the top three FTSE 100 risers were miners Antofagasta, Rio Tinto and Anglo American. Rio Tinto is up around 10% in a week.

“A sea of green greeted the main European indices on Friday including a 0.3% rise in the FTSE 100 and a 0.7% advance in the Dax. It was certainly a ‘risk-on’ day for UK equities, with the likes of Ocado and Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust among the top risers. Miners and packaging companies were also in demand, implying that investors continue to find reasons to stay optimistic despite patchy economic conditions,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Rightmove was slightly weaker after the property app said their engagement levels stumbled in 2023. Admiral was the FTSE 100’s top faller after analysts at Citigroup cut the insurer to neutral with 2,272p price target.

Other notable ratings changes include Bank of America’s 9,550p increased price target for London Stock Exchange and Numis cutting Rightmove to add from buy.

US Interest Rates

Sentiment was improved by comments from a Fed official suggesting the next rate hike from the United States could be just 25bps, instead of 50bps. “Right now I’m still in very firmly in the quarter-point move pacing,” said Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic.

Bostic’s comments invigorated equity bulls and US equity futures rose in line with European stocks.

A slower pace of rates hike will be welcomed by markets fixated on forecasting terminal US interest rates. However, Bostic is just one Fed official commenting after a string of strong economic data that warrants a higher level of interest rates.

Non-farm payrolls next week will provide further insight into the health of the world’s largest economy after adding 517,000 jobs in January.

AIM movers: Active Energy trademark and Longboat Energy partners relinquish licence

0

Active Energy Group (LON: AEG) has received a trademark for CoalSwitch in Canada. This follows trademark awards in the US and the UK. CoalSwitch is biomass technology that reduces carbon dioxide emissions by up to 99% compared with coal and 97% compared with gas. John Celaschi increased his stake from 9.76% to 10.1%. The share price jumped 21.2% to 6.3p.

Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (LON: CGNR) has a new gold target in County Monaghan. This is a second gold trend on the Longford-Down Massif. They are along the Skullmartin fault zone and could be connected. The share price increased 9.59% to 20p.

Battery developer AMTE Power (LON: AMTE) has shipped the first Ultra Prime cells to its primary customer for testing. This is a single use battery designed for use in challenging environments. This could ned with a long-term supply agreement in the oil and gas sector. Interim results are published on 8 March. The share price is 8.33% higher at 58.5p.

Shares in construction dispute services provider Driver (LON: DRV) have risen 6.56% to 32.5p on the back of AB Traction increasing its stake from 20.6% to 27.5%. Ruffer has sold its stake. In the year to September 2022, Driver revenues slipped from £48.8m to £46.9m. while a £2m pre-tax profit was turned into an underlying loss of £1m. Driver could return to profit this year.

Construction has started on Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, where Trident Royalties (LON: TRR) has a 60% interest in a gross revenue royalty. The share price improved 5.98% to 58.5p.

Ondine Biomedical (LON: OBI) says that a study at an Ottawa hospital shows patients treated with Steriwave nasal photodisinfection had a 48% shorter mean length of stay in hospital. Fewer patients required antibiotics. There was also a reduction in readmissions. The share price rose 5.88% to 18p.

Longboat Energy (LON: LBE) says the licence including the Egyptian Vulture light oil discovery has been relinquished. Longboat Energy has a 15% interest in the PL939 licence and the partners could not come to an agreement over an appraisal well. Longboat Energy plans to form a new joint venture and reapply for the acreage in the next Norwegian licence round in January 2024. The share price slumped 20.4% to 11.25p.

Purplebricks (LON: PURP) has lost some of the gains it made after it announced that it received approaches for the acquisition of the company or its businesses. The ongoing strategic review has been widened to include a formal sale process. The share price declined 1.29% to 9.18p.