The pound falls after 24 hours of sheer chaos in Westminster

The UK’s political crisis reached unthinkable lows last night following extraordinary scenes at a fracking vote last night and resignations by senior tories.

Sterling was trader’s market of choice for the ongoing debacle in Westminster once more as GBP/USD fell below 1.1200 in early trade on Thursday.

Political commentators including ITV’s Robert Peston took to Twitter to slam the utter chaos in parliament last night.

Liz Truss was met with fish call for her to resign on Thursday and some Tory back benchers saying she had only hours left to salvage her leadership.

Just days after Jeremy Hunt’s efforts to steady markets, a situation of their own creation saw the government plunged into chaos and the markets reacted accordingly.

The FTSE 100 was down with the pound and UK 10-years Bond Yields crept higher.

TRX Gold: ramping up production and increasing gold resources

TRX Gold possesses two major attributes gold mining investors should be seeking. Firstly, it is ramping up production at their Tanzanian gold mines. And secondly, it is utilising cash flow from current production to pursue further exploration and upgrades to their assets.

TRX Gold Corporation (TSX:TNX) (NYSE American:TRX) operates the Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania and is delivering on a strategy to increase their production capacity and overall resources in the pursuit of shareholder value creation.

Ramping up production

The $104m market cap gold miner invested $4m in mill processing facilities 12 months ago with the objective of increasing the original 360 tpd capacity to 1,000 tpd.

In late September, TRX Gold announced this target would soon be hit enabling TRX Gold to produce 15,000-20,000 ounces of gold annually over the life of the oxide mine plan.

Early success at the new plant saw TRX Gold hit a quarterly production record in the third quarter with 2,733 ounce of gold produced. TRX Gold also hit a sales record with 3,033 ounces of gold sold.

Increasing the resource base

Many junior gold explorers will be highly envious of TRX Gold’s position. TRX Gold are able to fund further exploration and the expansion of their resources with cashflows from ongoing production, a scenario many junior explorers can only dream of.

TRX Gold do not have to raise cash through dilutive secondary issues, nor are they being forced into a joint venture to facilitate development of their assets.

Funding further exploration through cashflows from operations means TRX is creating the most favourable scenario short and long term value creation.

This is of course reliant on the success of their expansion operations and upgrades to the resource – and the most recent results are positive.

Exploration activity at Buckreef Gold Project recently yielded an additional strike extension of 250 meters, representing 16% increase in the strike length of the Buckreef Main Zone to 1.8 kilometers.

TRX Gold are undergoing an intensive drill programme looking to expand 2020’s NI43-101 Measured and Indicated Mineral Resource of 35.88 MT at 1.77 g/t gold containing 2,036,280 oz of gold and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 17.8 MT at 1.11g/t gold for 635,540 oz of gold.

TRX Gold’s low cost production

Compounding TRX’s ramp up in production and expanded resource, TRX Gold are achieving a low cash cost of $508 per gold ounce driving gross margins of 73%.

TRX Gold generated $9.06m revenue in the nine months to May 31st 2022. Much of this was generated in the three months to May 31st with TRX Gold recording $5.7m revenue and $3.18m profit for the period.

TRX Gold’s comprehensive income for the nine months to May 31st 2022 was $28,000 due to higher share based expense.

Investors will be looking forward to TRX Gold’s full year results and the additional revenue from increased capacity at the Buckreef Gold Project.

Bunzl revenue jumps on organic growth and acquisitions

Bunzl investors may be pleased to see strong levels of revenue growth at the international distribution and services group as both organic revenue growth and the impact of acquisitions helped a 18.8% actual exchange rate rise in revenue in the third quarter.

However, the revenue growth wasn’t enough to see Bunzl shares rise as they dipped 1.5% in the very early minutes of trade on Thursday.

A 4.3% expected reduction COVID-19 related products saw underlying revenue grow 6.1% and account for 10.4% of overall growth.

The group detailed the recent acquisition of Enviropack which generated £7m in the year to August 2022. Bunzl noted the acquisition was consistent with their strategy to boost the circular economy through their packaging operations.

“Our strong performance over the quarter continues to demonstrate the strength and resilience of the Bunzl business model, underpinned by our value-added offering for customers,” said Frank van Zanten, Chief Executive Officer of Bunzl.

“Our commitment to reliably provide essential products and innovative solutions to our customers, our diversified portfolio, and our compounding growth strategy are all factors which contribute to our expectation of continued resilience. I am also pleased to welcome Enviropack to the Bunzl family and our acquisition pipeline remains active.”

FTSE 100 flat as UK inflation hits 10.1% and sterling falls

The FTSE 100 was largely flat on Wednesday as UK inflation hit 10.1% for the second time this year and a weaker pound provided some support for the FTSE 100’s overseas earners.

The pound fell as the Bank of England said they would indeed begin quantitative tightening 1st November, but wouldn’t sell long dated bonds initially.

“The FTSE 100 dipped on Wednesday as UK inflation came in a smidge higher than expected to match the multi-decade highs seen in July,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“Food prices were the major contributor to the inflationary surge, which will only ramp up the pressure on the Bank of England to maintain a hard line on interest rates ahead of its next meeting in November.

Early weakness in the FTSE 100 was bought into and the index traded marginally higher at 6,939 at the time of writing.

Interest rate expectations

Interest rate expectations have fallen back since Jeremy Hunt’s appointment but today’s inflation reading all but confirmed interest rates would continue to rise sharply in the coming months.

“Expectations for the peak in interest rates in 2023 have fallen back from their highs of close to 6% p.a. since Jeremy Hunt, the replacement Chancellor, rolled back much of the proposed fiscal loosening in the “mini” budget,” said Chris Acari, Head of Capital Markets at Hymans Robertson.

“At time of writing, markets expect the bank of England base rate to peak around 5.3% next year, while consensus forecasts suggest the bank may raise rates slightly less than this.”

Housebuilders suffered on Wednesday after bouncing from the mini-budget lows. UK banks were also under pressure as the higher inflation data suggested more households are facing financial difficulties going into the winter.

It was the weaker pound and overseas stocks providing support for the index at lunchtime on Wednesday with HSBC the top riser, gaining 2.2%.

GlaxoSmithKline, BAE Systems, BP, Shell and AstraZeneca were among the FTSE 100 heavyweights gaining on Wednesday and offsetting losses in domestic names.

AIM movers: 7Digital music streaming contract and IOG gas production disappointment

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7Digital (LON: 7DIG) has won a new contract with Pinterest and the share price has jumped 62.2% to 0.365p. The three-year contract will deliver licenced commercial music tracks to Pinterest via the 7Digital music-as-a-service platform.

Corcel (LON: CRCL) has signed an exclusive 45-day option to acquire 100% of the Mt Weld project in Western Australia. This is near to an existing rare earths mine. An option payment of £15,000 has been made. If the option is taken up, then £200,000 will be paid.

ECR Minerals (LON: ECR) says that drilling at its Creswick gold project in Australia has found exceptionally good grades. ECR highlights a 0.7 metres @ 47.75g/t of gold, but other grades are much lower. Even so, they are significant grades for this type of project and ECR is trying to secure licences for adjoining tenements.

Shanta Gold Ltd (LON: SHG) continues to rise on the back of yesterday’s announcement of three potential bidders – Shandong Gold Group, Yintia Gold and AIM-quoted Chaarat Gold Holdings (LON: CGH). The first two are likely to make a cash bid.

Cambridge Cognition (LON: COG) has won a £1.1m contract with a major pharm company to provide electronic clinical outcome assessments and hardware for a rare blood disease study. This lasts two years. Last week, Cambridge Cognition paid up to £1.7m for eClinicalHealth, which is a virtual clinical trials provider.

Artisanal Spirits Company (LON: ART) says its subsidiary The Scotch Malt Whisky Society has signed a franchise agreement with FJ Korea in South Korea, which is the tenth largest market for scotch whisky. This is a new market for the company.

North Sea gas producer IOG (LON: IOG) is the worst performer on the day with a 53.2% slump in the share price to 8.75p after it suspended drilling at the Southwark A1 well due to fluid losses. The focus has moved to A2 so that IOG can produce gas from this area in this quarter. Second half production guidance for the group has been cut from 30-50 mmscf/day to 22-28 mmscf/day.

Verditek (LON: VDTK) shares have fallen after it said that it is no longer exclusive lightweight solar panels supplier to a joint venture between Bradclad and Protan AB and it has not received any orders since June. The shares slid 36.1% to 1.15p.

Parcel delivery and logistics company DX (LON: DX.) has finally returned from suspension and the share price has slumped by one-fifth to 24p. Given the inability to trade in the shares for more than one year due to the failure to publish audited accounts for 2020-21 due to corporate governance problems, which appear to have been sorted out. Those accounts have been published and the 2021-22 accounts are due in November and are expected to show a pre-tax profit of £19.6m. Non-exec Russell Black has left the board. A new permanent chief executive is being sought.

Real-time assistance products supplier CPP Group (LON: CPP) intends to focus on its insureTech business Blink and its operations in Turkey and India. The Blink business needs to be scaled up. The remaining legacy and non-core operations will be sold or closed. The share price fell 13.6% to 117.5p.

Shares in Revolution Bars (LON: RBG) have fallen 10.3% to 10.5p after yesterday evening’s announcement of the acquisition of Peach Pubs for £16.5m. This will be paid from borrowings. Peach Pub has 21 food-led pubs in the south of England and the Midlands. There should be £1.5m of cost savings from combining the businesses at a minimal cost, but they will not be fully achieved until 2024-25. finnCap has adjusted its 2022-23 forecast for Revolution Bars due to higher energy costs, so the earnings estimate has been reduced by 69% to 0.5p.

Victoria expands US distributions

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Floorcoverings supplier Victoria (LON: VCP) is acquiring US distributor Internationa Wholesale Tile (IWT) for $28.5m (£24.9m). This will help AIM-quoted Victoria to sell more of its Europe produced tiles in the US.

There could be a further payment payable over the next four years, which is dependent on chieving growth and earnings targets. This will be capped.

Florida-based IWT distributes ceramic, stone, glass and vinyl tiles and revenues have been growing at an annual rate of 11.6% over the past decade. IWT’s warehouse is 85% utilised and Victoria has other warehouse capacity in the US.

In the year to March 2022, IWT generated sales of $63.2m and EBITDA of $7m. Most of IWT’s business is in Florida, which is growing at a faster rate than the US as a whole.

Peel Hunt is maintaining its 2022-23 forecast due to integration costs and has upgraded the following year’s earnings by 3%. The 2022-23 pre-tac profit is expected to be £78.3m, rising to £90.1m.

At 415.5p, Victoria is trading on nine times prospective 2022-23 earnings, falling to eight the following year.

Ocado shares: 3 considerations before buying

Ocado shares are more than 70% down so far in 2022 as the favourable environment created by the pandemic disappears into the rear view mirror and consumers start to tighten their belts in the face of a cost of living crisis.

Investors in the online retailer enjoyed a monumental rally during the pandemic as Ocado customers number soared as a result of lockdowns and consumers spending more on their online weekly shop. Weekly order numbers have continued to grow to a record high of 400,000 per week in May, but the growth rate has slowed and people are spending less.

However, many investors see value in the Ocado solutions and technology business which provides smart platforms to leading food retailers globally including Coles in Australia and Kroger in the US.

The Ocado share price may appear attractive after a quick glance, but here we outline three important factors to consider before buying Ocado shares.

Ocado are loss making

Over the past decade, technology businesses have been able to get away with making a loss during periods of high growth as investors look forward to them eventually turning profit.

There is weight to the argument Ocado is still in this period of high growth – especially in their solutions business – but this may start to wear thin.

Ocado recorded a £212m loss in the first half of the year, but much of this was depreciation of plant and property associated with the rollout of their Ocado Solutions Customer Fulfilment Centres (CFCs).

Nonetheless, margins across Ocado’s retail business is tight and the rollout CFCs will be a cost for the foreseeable future.

Future revenue visibility

The retail business is highly cyclical and will likely suffer in any economic downturn. This has already been demonstrated in the first half of 2022 as revenue fell 8% to £1.11bn.

However, this is not the main source of future growth and investors will be watching the solutions and technology business mostly keenly.

Six new Customer Fulfilment Centres (CFC) came online internationally in H1 2022 to bring the total to 16 operation centres of 58 committed. Not only does this reinforce Ocado is still in a period of high growth, but provides clear visibility on future revenue growth.

Ocado will earn revenue from each new CFC and has the ability to add new modules to existing centres which would also increase revenue.

Ocado is in the process of establishing unrivalled infrastructure for the distribution food globally and investors will look forward to significant growth in revenue in the coming years as more CFCs go online.

There are also hopes the recent acquisition of Alberston’s by Ocado’s partner Kroger could lead to more CFCs being established.

Ocado is a potential takeover target

US private equity has long been eyeing UK supermarkets as potential takeover targets and Ocado’s partner Morrisons was acquired by CD&R for £7bn last year in a bitter takeover battle.

Although there has not been any specific reports thus far – and we stress ‘potential’ takeover target – the falling pound makes UK supermarkets more appealing to possible US bidders.

Ocado’s place in the UK market and global infrastructure certainly puts them on the wish for any potential acquirers.

Ocado Shares Valuation

As Ocado are loss making their are no earnings available for price-to-earnings multiples. Ongoing construction of CFCs mean next year profits, if any are made, will be minimal.

However, the construction of CFCs adds to Ocado asset base and book value. This makes Ocado’s Price-to-NAV an interesting metric. Trading at 2.3x NAV – which is set to fall as more CFCs come online – the value in Ocado is their infrastructure and value of this infrastructure, as opposed to earnings.

ASOS, UK inflation, and Battery Metals with Alan Green

Alan Green joins the Podcast for our weekly instalment of markets and UK equities.

Today, we focus on:

  • ASOS (LON:ASC)
  • ECR Minerals (LON:ECR)
  • Technology Minerals (LON:TM1)

We start by looking at the UK’s 10.1% inflation reading and what it could mean for the FTSE 100 in the short term. The FTSE 100 is trading in a tight range and we look at the potential scenarios that could lead to a breakout.

ASOS shares rose after realising final results but the performance may not be as positive as today’s share price movement suggests. The company is struggling as the cost of living crisis takes hold and have had to seek credit lines.

ECR Minerals updated the market on their progress at the Creswick Project having drill a number of holes finding gold grade up to 0.7m @ 47.75 g/t Au.

Technology Minerals is driving forward with their plans to create a circular economy in battery metals with the proposed acquisition of Recyclus.

UK Inflation rises more than expected to hit 10.1% as food prices jump

Prices in the UK continued to surge in September as inflation beat expectation to hit 10.1%, matching July’s 40-year record high.

Inflation is now far outstripping wage increases adding to fears of a cost of living crisis with mortgages rates rising and energy bills set to jump again in April.

“Inflation is back in double figures, rising at almost twice the rate of wages, and stretching us all to breaking point. People on the lowest incomes wait in limbo to see whether their benefits will get the boost they need to stop their finances plummeting over a cliff edge,” said Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown

“Meanwhile, those on average incomes are facing an increasingly impossible challenge every month to make ends meet, and anyone with savings is watching inflation eat their money alive.”

The impact of of a weaker pound was the big driver of inflation in September as food prices became more expensive after sterling hit record lows against dollar following the announcement of the doomed mini-budget.

“CPI inflation came in at 10.1%: five times the Bank of England target. It is showing few signs of slowing. While food made the biggest contribution, largely because of sterling weakness, there were notable increases across the other categories, including household goods and restaurants and hotels,” said Rob Clarry, Investment Strategist at Evelyn Partners.

As Clarry says, inflation is now 5x the Bank of England’s target meaning they will be forced into a sizeable rate hike at the next meeting, and possibly into 2023.

Cordel on the right track

Cordel (LSE: CRDL) has continued to win new contracts for its SaaS-based rail inspection services using LiDAR (Light Distance and Ranging) technology, but it is taking longer than expected to show through in revenues.
It is taking longer to reach profitability, but Cordel should be near to achieving that this year. There are significant contracts that have been gained from Network Rail and in the US. In July, a ballast profile analysis contract was gained in Australia.
Cordel recently won a five-year contract with Angel Trains to install fully automated monitoring hardware on in-service passen...