Sterling stabilises as Bank of England promises to change rates as much as needed

Sterling stabilised against the Dollar on Tuesday as the Bank of England stepped in to provide assurance to markets following significant volatility in the pound and other UK assets.

GBP/USD was trading up 0.9% at 1.0786 at the time of writing.

Markets are now pricing in a full 1% move higher in interest rates at the Bank of England’s next meeting. There is also growing speculation the Bank of England will call an emergency meeting to make an interest rate hike.

The pound came under extreme pressure after the UK government released their mini-budget on Friday which would require tax cuts to be funded by government borrowing.

UK 10-year Bond yields rose to 4.2% as investors continued to dump gilts and worries about the UK housing market started to mount as a number of mortgage providers said they were no longer be making mortgage offers due to uncertainty about interest rates.

eEnergy launches eSolar capital-free solutions for organisations

AIM-Listed eEnergy announced on Tuesday it would be rolling out its eSolar solution to organisations and providing an end-to-end service.

The solution will provide capital-free access for organisations to install onsite solar panels to help reduce the cost of their power supply.

eEnergy will deliver end-to-end solutions covering design, specification, installation and ongoing operations and maintenance.

Following a trial period to gauge the demand for the service, eEnergy believe they can deliver solutions totalling 8.9 MW, equivalent to circa 30,000 standard 300w panels.

eEnergy hopes that by removing the capital requirements they are able to target a broad range of organisations and complete installation in a short time period of 4-6 months from initial agreements.

“The launch of eSolar is another exciting step on our journey to providing organisations and businesses across the UK and Ireland with an end to end net zero solution,” said Harvey Sinclair, CEO of eEnergy Group.

“In addition to eCharge, eSolar provides our customers with the very real ability to generate their own energy, giving them increased energy independence in the knowledge that they’re using green and sustainable sources as well as achieving significant cost savings.”

AIM movers: MusicMagpie dives and Eden Research gets US approvals

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MusicMagpie (LON: MMAG) has been hit be weak consumer spending with lower sales of technology. That has hit the share price making it the biggest faller on the day with a 71.3% decline to 7.9p. Rental income is growing, though, and that is good for longer-term revenues. The original pre-owned books and music operations are trading as expected. The second half should still be better than the first half, although a full year pre-tax loss is forecast on flat revenues. A small profit is forecast for 2023. Net debt is expected to be £8m at the end of the year. This is going to hamper investment in growth. The April 2021 placing price was 193p.

Brighton Pier Group (LON: PIER) bounced back well in the year to June 2022, but the ending of business rate relief and lower VAT for food and leisure, along with cost increases, will mean that trading will be tougher. The year end is being changed to December. The 12-month pre-tax profit of £6.5m was better than expected. Cenkos still has a forecast for the year to June 2023 and the pre-tax profit has been sharply downgraded to £2.1m. The share price slipped 18.4% to 57.5p.

Logistics firm Xpediator (LON: XPD) ran into problems with its systems at the UK freight forwarding division. That hit profit and cash collections. A rise in net debt means that there is no interim dividend and there may not be a final dividend, either. Excluding a goodwill write-off, interim pre-tax profit fell from £3.6m to £3.1m. The new management team has already put a lot of effort into improving the operations and full year profit could be flat at £9m. The performance of the warehouses requires improvement, but central European operations are still trading well. The share price fell 12.1% to 29p.

Delays obtaining a niche component has knocked £2m off this year’s forecast revenues for embedded computer products manufacturer Concurrent Technologies (LON: CNC) and it means that it will not do much better than breakeven in 2022. Investment in R&D is increasing, and eight new products will be launched this year. It will take a couple of years for the sales of those products to build up. US outsourcing partner Nextek has been approved as a manufacturing partner and this will help Concurrent Technologies to win further US defence business. The benefits of these investments will not show through in the short-term and the share price has reacted to the short-term trading delays by slumping 13.9% to 71.5p.

Sustainable biopesticides developer Eden Research (LON: EDEN) has obtained US EPA approval for its three active ingredients and two formulated products. There was a 24% rise in the share price to 4.65p. Mevalone (a biofungicide) and Cedroz (a nematicide) sales should start next year via existing distribution partners. State approvals are required before launching in an individual state. Eden Research is reducing its losses, but a cash raising may be required in the next 12-18 months or so.  

Alan Rosenthal has been buying shares in mattress supplier eve Sleep (LON: EVE) and this has helped the share price recover. He owns 8.19 million shares. There was a 29.6% increase in the share price to 0.875p.

Tavistock Investments (LON: TAVI) boosted its balance sheet through the sale of Tavistock Wealth for up to £40 and the ongoing financial advisory operations are growing. Full year revenues from continuing operations grew 35% to £31.3m and there was a small profit before exceptionals. Net cash is more than £15m with more cash to come from the disposal. Allenby estimates a sum of the parts valuation of 17.3p a share. The shares are 13.3% ahead at 8.5p, which is just above NAV.

Morocco-focused potash project developer Emmerson (LON: EML) has reached agreement with its strategic investors to extend the commitment period for the $40m convertible loan note to subscription to the end of September 2023. They are also investing $6m at 6p a share and are being issued 50 million warrants exercisable at 8.2p each. The share price rose 12.7% to 6.2p a share. Existing shareholders were given the chance to subscribe for up to £1m in shares through an offer at 6p a share via REX. Emmerson expects to start construction of the mine at Khemisset in 2023. Potash prices remain high, although they have fallen back to $800/ton, which is higher than the price used in the 2020 feasibility study that came up with an NPV of $1.4bn for the project.

Gulf Marine Services – higher utilisation levels and higher day rates will help to drive the shares higher

Operating out of the Middle East, North Africa and Europe Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS) provides self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels to groups in the offshore, oil, gas and renewables sector.

Its interim results to end June showed revenues up 29% from $51.4m to $66.4m and a big increase in its EBITDA to $37.3m ($26.5m), leaving its profits after tax up more than six-fold at $13.1m ($2.0m).

Stronger usage

Higher utilisation levels of its fleet of vessels at a time when day rates had been rising was helpful.

It was also boosted by the group’s management continuing to focus on saving operating costs.

Reduction in debt

There was also a good first half reduction in the group’s net debt to $341.4m ($371.3m) as part of the ongoing deleveraging strategy.

Orders increasing

The group anticipates seeing continued improvements in day rate and utilisation levels, but at a more gradual rate.

Its secured backlog was $163.3m as at 30 June 2022 ($215.4m) and it is currently working on a number of projects that will have a favourable impact on its backlog. 

Executive Chairman, Mansour Al Alami, stated that:

“I am pleased to report GMS operational results for first half of the year which provides us a solid platform for achieving our full year EBITDA guidance. The first half performance reflected higher day rates, improved utilisation and efforts made on continuous cost savings.

We will realise the benefits of improved day rates on new contract awards announced during H1 2022.  As the Middle Eastern market continues to increase production, we expect an increase in demand for our sector, which in turn will lead to an increase in day rates and utilisation over time.”

Reaction

The group’s shares initially dipped on the back of the results on very high dealing volume but are now regaining composure at around the 6p level, still looking undervalued.

FTSE 100 dragged by banks and housebuilders

The FTSE 100 suffered a break through 7,000 on Monday as shares in UK banks and the country’s leading house builders plunged on concerns about the outlook for the UK economy.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.85% to 6,961 at the time of writing.

Friday’s mini-budget has been met with extreme selling of the pound and soaring government bond yields as investors panicked about a plethora of tax cuts that will be funded by government borrowing.

“Markets are raising alarm bells as the Chancellor signalled a doubling down of tax cuts over the weekend,” said Janet Mui, head of market analysis at wealth manager Brewin Dolphin.

“The new borrowing will be financed at a much higher rate of interest which could put the UK onto a fiscally unsustainable path. Sterling and gilts are the quickest and most liquid pressure valves for markets to express these concerns.”

Higher rates

Markets are now pricing in a 1% increase rise in UK rates at the next Bank of England meeting, and rates hitting 6% in early 2023.

The crashing pound is also raising the question of an emergency rate hike to help support the currency. Such a sharp trajectory higher in UK interest rates has unnerved equity investors who have been dumping their holdings in housebuilders and UK banks.

A move to anywhere near 6% will send a tsunami through the UK housing market and could see banks forced to set aside provisions for bad debts as households are put under pressure.

Taylor Wimpey was down 7.3% at the time of writing while Persimmon shed 6.5% and Berkeley Group 5%.

Banks – typically beneficiaries of higher rates – are now facing the prospect of mortgage defaults as homeowners struggle to meet higher payments.

The UK’s largest mortgage provider Lloyds fell 4% and NatWest fell 3.6%.

Although the banks and housebuilders are suffering today from the wider implications of a weaker pound, the FTSE 100 is typically supported by a weaker pound and may provide some outperformance for the index compared overseas equity indices.

“Overall, the FTSE 100 tends to benefit from a weak pound, because most big companies listed in London actually earn most of their money overseas, which will be worth more when it’s converted back into pounds,” said Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Stronger Dollar

While many headlines will focus on the pound, the stronger dollar was causing issues across the globe with EUR/USD falling ever further past parity to 0.9645.

Emerging markets also felt the pain of a strong dollar and even US futures fell as investors shunned riskier assets.

Regnan Sustainable Water and Waste Fund tops peer group

Just one year after its launch, Regnan Sustainable Water and Waste Fund has topped its peers in terms of performance having provided investors with a 2.3% return.

The fund invests enlisted equities across the global water and waste management value chain and holds companies such as Republic Services, a US disposal waste firm, and water lifecycle specialist, Xylem.

The fund is managed by Regnan, part of J O Hambro Capital Management, and has recently surpassed £100m in assets under management.

“It’s pleasing that since launch we have seen significant client interest and that we have been able to reward this support with strong performance,” said Bertrand Lecourt, Head of Thematic Investing at Regnan.

“Our investment process differs to many of our peers offering exposure to the complementary areas of both water and waste, offering diversification and a broader toolkit whilst still providing exposure to perpetual investment trends.”

Likewise Group – impressive and significant progress in the first half-year

The interim results from this UK floor coverings distributor for the six months to the end of June showed sales up an impressive 108% to £58.4m (£28.0m) and a 77% increase in underlying pre-tax profits at £1.91m (£1.08m).

The figures from the Solihull-based Likewise Group (LON:LIKE) also showed 77% improvement in its net assets from £22.4m to £39.7m.

Coping with the pressures

The very acquisitive group has really been spreading its coverage in the last couple of years, at the same time its organic business has grown.

That is impressive against the backdrops of Covid-19, inflationary costs, stock supply and staffing hassles.

The fast-growing £52m capitalised group countered such pressures by increasing its selling prices in early May.

There has been a continuation of positive sales in the last three months, as it leads into the busier final quarter of the year.

CEO Tony Brewer stated that: “Likewise has made considerable progress in the last two years. The acquisition of Valley was a particularly important step. The increase in Net Assets and subsequently solid Balance Sheet provides the Group with strong foundations for the future.

With the extensive logistics, sales and marketing investment we are confident in progressively building a substantial and profitable floor covering distribution business.”

Analyst’s opinion

Brokers analyst Andy Hanson, at Zeus Capital, rates the group’s shares as a Buy. 

He is looking for benefits to come from new product launches in the second half of the current year, together with the almost doubling of the group’s logistics capacity to 15m cubic feet, helping to expand its geographic coverage.

His estimates for the year to end December are for sales of some £114.9m, providing more than doubled profits of £3.7m, generating 1.3p of earnings per share, together with a 0.3p dividend.

The 2023 trading year sees Hanson estimating £136.6m in sales, £5.9m in profits, with earnings of 1.9p and a 0.5p per share dividend.

The recent acquisitions, logistics increase and rising coverage across the country should be able to help push the Likewise Group 2024 revenues up to £160.8m, its profits up to £8.8m, and earnings of 2.7p amply covering a 0.7p per share dividend.

Good equity involvement

The group’s management has a good 21% of its equity, while it is also being backed by a good number of institutional investors, like Octopus, CRUX, AXA, and Allianz Global.

I now see the group looking to make its recent acquisitions, and its operations generally, perform to management expectations.

The company has a strong balance sheet, with gross cash of £7.9m and net cash of £1.9m, backed up by over £20m of properties.

Floated at 25p a share in August last year, they were up to 52.5p by last December, since when the shares have gradually drifted back to the current 21.5p.

At that level they could well offer investors the potential for a 50% appreciation within a year or so.

Pound hits all-time low against dollar

The pound continues its decline on Monday and slipped to an all-time low against the dollar. GBP/USD hit lows below 1.0300 before rebounding to trade at 1.0700.

With such sharp declines, traders are now eyeing parity with the dollar as market show their distrust of the UK government recent fiscal plans.

“The pound has been on a fast downwards track of a rollercoaster, plunging to record lows yet again this morning, as confidence in the government’s economic management continues to evaporate,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

The new UK chancellor unveiled a mini budget on Friday which was immediately met with volatility in UK assets. Having had the weekend to further digest the implications, traders took the first opportunity on Monday to sell the pound and take it to record lows.

“The weekend press tarred and feathered sterling with assertions of its emerging-market status,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

Indeed, with 400-pip swings in early on Monday, GBP certainly does have some characteristic of an emerging market currency.

Sustainable Farmland Trust offer

The Sustainable Farmland Trust (LON: AGRI) wants to raise up to £200m at 100p a share ahead of admission to the premium list. The newly established investment trust intends to provide an income as well as capital growth. The target yield is 4.5% of the issue price, while target total return is 7% to 9% a year.
There is a subsidiary in Delaware, and this will be used to make investments. The majority of the cash raised is likely to be invested in the IFC Core Farmland Fund LP and the rest would be invested via other IFC vehicles or directly.
Direct farming assets are where a grower is hired for...

Aquis weekly movers: Gunsynd increases investment in Charger Metals

Last week’s trades in Hydrogen Utopia International (LON: HUI) were predominantly sells, although the total amount traded was less than £100,000. The share price fell 24% to 5.625p. In January, when the company joined Aquis, it raised £3m at 7.5p a share.

Gunsynd (LON: GUN) has made a further investment in ASX-listed Charger Metals NL. Gunsynd has invested A$175,000 at 50 cents a share, as part of a larger fundraising of A$5.5m. Gunsynd will own 5.12% of Charger Metals. The share price fell 14.3% to 0.45p.

Aquis Stock Exchange owner Aquis Exchange (LON: AQX) expects to have a strong second half. Aquis Exchange, which is also quoted on AIM, reported interim revenues 21% ahead at £8.3m, although profit was lower due to investment in the technology business. The share price fell 11.5% to 345p on the back of these results. The Aquis Stock Exchange is profitable. The technology division has won contracts that will boost the second half – as well as 2023 – and full year pre-tax profit is expected to rise from £3.2m to £4.2m. The second half will also benefit from the relaunch of the former UBS dark pool trading operation. This should help to rebuild the company’s market share of equity trading.

Quetzal Capital (LON: QTZ) says that investee company Tap Global Ltd has exceeded 100,000 registered users on its crypto-fiat exchange service platform. Quetzal Capital has invested £1.5m in Tap Global convertibles and has an option to acquire the company. The shares fell 7.69% to 3p.

Gold explorer Tectonic Gold (LON: TTAU) says that drilling at Specimen Hill in Queensland has intersected mineralisation earlier than expected. The drilling programme should recommence in October. The share price declined 2.86% to 0.85p.

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RISER

Asimilar Group (LON: ASLR) director Mark Horrocks subscribed for 3.15 million shares at a warrant exercise price of 1p. He owns 7.63% of Asimilar. The share price has risen by 12.5% to 6.75p.

Metals recycler Majestic Corporation (LON: MCJ) reported its maiden interim results as an Aquis company. Revenues fell 17% to $12.9m, but gross margins increased, and pre-tax profit improved from $766,000 to $980,000. There was $2.7m in the bank at the end of June 2022.  The share price rose 1.69% to 30p, compared to a flotation price of 25p.