ECB hikes rates by 0.75% and hints at further increases, EUR/USD falls

The European Central Bank met economist expectations with a 75bps interest rate hike on Thursday, and signalled more hikes were on the horizon.

The ECB has been slow to tighten monetary policy, lagging behind the Bank of England and Federal Reserve who were quick to increase rates in the face of soaring inflation. The ECB’s base rate is now 1.50%, behind the Bank of England’s 2.25% and Federal Reserves 3.25%.

Rising inflation has pushed centrals banks into making difficult monetary policy decisions that could threaten economic growth as consumer face soaring energy costs and interest payments.

Today’s was broadly priced into markets as the ECB had little choice but to hike rates further to support the Euro.

The key detail of the announcement is the statement of further increases in the near future.

A statement from the ECB accompanying the hike read “over the next several meetings the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further.”

This will pile further pressure on the Eurozone economy which was reflected in a weaker EUR/USD, down 0.7% to 1.0005 at the time of writing.

“The ECB has a difficult balancing act though as inflation continues to darken the economic outlook, meaning they are raising rates at a time when the economy could do with a more dovish stance,” said Dan Boardman-Weston, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at BRI Wealth Management.

“The growth outlook for Europe is gloomier than it has been since the dark days of Covid or the Eurozone crisis a decade ago, and we’re likely to see a material slowdown in economic activity through the rest of 2022.”

The prospect of higher rates usually supports currencies and today’s trade in the Euro suggests entrenched concerns about the health of the European economy.

FTSE helped higher by Shell and central bank hopes

The FTSE 100 rose on Thursday as robust profits at Shell helped support the index with both BP and Shell gaining on the day.

BP and Shell are among the largest FTSE 100 constituents and gains of 3.2% and 5.3% respectively added a significant number of points to the index.

There were also hopes central banks would soon start to slow the pace of interest hikes following disappointing earnings from US tech stocks.

Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet have all fallen heavily this week after earnings releases suggested consumers were starting to feel the pressure of inflation.

“US tech may be letting the side down when it comes to third quarter earnings but bumper profit from index heavyweight Shell helped lift the FTSE 100 on Thursday morning,” says AJ Bell head of investment analysis, Laith Khalaf.

“Once again, the wider market seems to be pinning some hopes on central banks looking at evidence of a deteriorating economy and reacting accordingly by slowing the pace of rate rises.”

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB will provide hints on the trajectory of interest rates in the coming weeks.

Shell

Shell had previously provided guidance on refining margins due to a falling oil prices which were a central element in Shell’s profit falling to $7bn in the third quarter, down from $18bn in the prior quarter.

Despite the sharp drop in profit from the prior quarter, Shell’s earnings were highly attractive to investors and shares rose over 5% as a result. Shell’s profit will support further distributions to shareholders after $6.8bn was paid in the last quarter.

Lloyds

Lloyds shares were largely flat on Thursday after the UK bank reported a 22% increase in underlying profit before impairment to £2.4bn. However, as with all UK banks updating the market this week, Lloyds were forced to set aside provisions for potential bad debts. Lloyds made provisions of just under £700m which say underlying profit for the quarter fall 17% to £1.7bn.

“Our income growth, balance sheet momentum and resilient customer franchise have enabled the Group to deliver a robust financial performance and strong capital generation, alongside updated guidance for 2022,” said Charlie Nunn, Lloyds Group Chief Executive.

Lloyds net interest margin is set to exceed 2.9% as a result of higher interest rates.

UK Banks and US Tech Stocks with Hargreaves Lansdown’s Derren Nathan

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to be joined Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Derren provides a fantastic overview of the Meta, Alphabet, WPP and the online advertising sector.

Get more information on the Hargreaves Lansdown website here.

We look at the external economic factors driving advertising spend in the third quarter and how earnings could play during the rest of the year.

Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC and Standard Chartered have reported earnings this week and displayed clear benefits of higher interest rates. However the outlook has dampened sentiment and caused banks  to make provisions for bad debts.

Shell shares jump on robust, but declining, profit

Shell shares rose on Thursday morning after the oil giant’s profits declined quarter-on-quarter as a result of lower oil prices. Shell’s profit wa well ahead of last year’s loss and the significant $7bn Q3 profit has drawn calls for a windfall tax.

However, the variability in Shell’s profit highlights the precarious nature of oil and gas businesses and fairness of a windfall tax, especially at a time they are investing in clean energy solutions.

“With oil prices down from their triple-digit highs this summer, it was inevitable to see big oil’s profits start to thin. However nearly $7bn in profits for the quarter is nothing to sneeze at, and is a far cry from the losses Shell suffered last year,” said Laura Hoy, Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Although the group isn’t printing money at record pace anymore, oil prices are still elevated by historical standards and that means Shell has more than enough to continue boosting shareholder rewards.”

Shell is one of the most widely held shares in UK pension funds and increased distributions will benefit almost all UK pensioners.

Shell profit

Shell income attributable to shareholders was $6.7bn in the third quarter, down from $18bn in the previous quarter. This compared to a $447m loss in the third quarter last year.

Shell recently said they expected refining margins to suffer in the quarter due to lower oil prices. Refining margins were indeed a key driver of falling profit in Q3 but margins remained elevated compared to last year.

Lower liquefied natural gas trading activity also hit profits during the period.

Clean Energy

There is an argument a windfall tax on oil majors such as Shell would be counterproductive in the push towards renewable energy. Shell is investing heavily in their Renewables and Energy Solution units and incurring significant losses as a result.

A windfall tax would like see spending in this unit reduce as its not yet a core revenue generator for Shell.

Shell shares were 3% higher at 2,367 at the time of writing.

Gatemore requisitions general meeting at DX

9

Gatemore Capital Management is requisitioning a general meeting at parcel and freight delivery company DX (LON: DX.). Gatemore founder and managing partner Liad Meidar stepped down from the board earlier this month.

Gatemore is still the largest shareholder even though it has reduced its stake to 24.3%, having been 35.6% at one point. It was behind the appointment of former chief executive Lloyd Dunn and executive chairman Ron Series, who it wants to remove from the board.

This all relates to the corporate governance problems that beset DX over the past couple of years. Gatemore believes that Ron Series should take responsibility for the failings. Gatemore believes that the underlying trading of DX is overshadowed by his continued presence.

Mark Hammond is proposed as a replacement for Ron Series as executive chairman. He is a past chairman of Tuffnells Parcels Express, which was previously run by Lloyd Dunn.

The DX board is considering the requisition. DX continues to trade strongly, although the share price has fallen since trading resumed more than nine months after it was suspended. The share price recovered 14.1% to 24.25p after the requisition announcement.  

FTSE 100 dips as corporate earnings weight on index

A raft of corporate earnings released on Wednesday morning have weighed on the FTSE 100 as investors digested updates from companies including Barclays, Reckitt Benckiser, Standard Chartered and WPP.

The market’s attention has shifted to corporate progress this week as Rishi Sunak’s appointment quells political turmoil.

A trend is building among the FTSE 100’s constituents that is indicating higher revenue figures – and even profits – are not enough to cause a positive reaction in companies’ share prices.

Barclays is a perfect examples. Revenue has increased, profits beat expectations, but share are down, weaker by 1.5% at the time of writing.

It was a similar story for HSBC yesterday. Standard Chartered was down 4.5% at the time of wiring after operating income rose 15% in the third quarter.

There is a clear theme in the banks reporting so far. The benefits of higher interest rates are largely priced in and investors are choosing to focus on the outlook. Potential provisions for bad debts in the coming quarters is a concern for investors as banks prepare for defaults during an economic downturn.

Lloyds’ quarterly updated will be closely watched tomorrow.

Margin pressure

Reckitt Benckiser was the FTSE 100’s top faller, down 5.4% as the consumer company reported higher revenues but falling volumes. Inflation was driving prices higher, but consumers were buying less and squeezing Reckitt’s margins.

Margin pressure is also a problem at WPP. Revenue grew 10.3% on a like-for-like basis but the advertising giant reduced operating margin guidance to 30 to 50 bps, down from 50 bps previously.

WPP shares fell 2.4% to 750p.

Fresnillo was the FTSE 100’s top riser after the precious metals miners improved their guidance as production volumes increased. Fresnillo shares were 2.4% higher at the time of writing.

Alphabet shares sink as YouTube revenues fall for first time in history

YouTube has been become a part of everyday life for millions of people and the revenue earned from its adverts have been a huge source of growth for Google parent Alphabet since inception.

However, Alphabet’s earning update has signalled the first decline in YouTube’s revenue as ad sales fell 2% to $7.07 billion, missing analysts estimates of $7.42 billion.

The decline in YouTube sales were symptom of falling online advertising activity as economic conditions soften. Worries about the immediate future of the sector and poor revenue figures have sent Alphabet shares down 6% in the pre-market.

“All good things must come to an end but it is still a jolt to see advertising revenue on Google-owner Alphabet’s Youtube platform fall for the first time on record. While bad news for its parent company, the reversal in fortunes also says something less than encouraging about the state of the economy and is a negative omen for the wider digital advertising space,” said AJ Bell head of investment analysis Laith Khalaf.

Shares in Tech gains have declined sharply this year in anticipation of figures such as those from YouTube. Facebook owner, Meta, has seen its shares decline over 50% in 2022 and investors are bracing for more bad news when they report later today.

Barclays, Reckitt Benckiser, and Rishi Sunak with Alan Green

The UK Investor Magazine is joined by Alan Green for a broad discussion around key market themes and a number of UK equities.

We start with a look at Rishi Sunak’s early moves as Prime Minister. He has moved to unify his party and made early progress in increasing confidence in UK assets. We look at what the future holds for him.

Barclays have enjoyed the benefits of higher interest rates and increased bond trading in the third quarter. However, the economic outlook is a cause for concerns and market sentiments echoed those of HSBC yesterday.

Reckitt Benckiser shares fell as Q3 sales rose but volumes fell. We explore what the coming months could mean for the consumer company.

We finish with the success of secondary placings in junior explorers Kavango Resources and Blencowe Resources.

AIM Movers: DeepMatter Merck deal and Parsley Box slumps on potential AIM departure

8

Digital chemistry data provider DeepMatter Group (LON: DMTR) has signed a multi-year database licence agreement with Merck. This is the third multi-year deal this year. There could be other opportunities to provide data and services to Merck. DeepMatter expects 2022 revenues to be more than 50% ahead at £1.5m or more. There was £700,000 in cash at the end of September. At the beginning of the year £2.8m was raised at 0.1p a share. The current share price has recovered by 80% to 0.135p.

Content and IP services provider RWS Holdings (LON: RWS) says results for the year to September 2022 will be in line with expectations. Revenues grew by 8%, although this includes an additional month from SDL. There were reduced volumes from some large technology clients, while RWS has stopped working with one client which became a competitor. Growth is also held back by a move to SaaS contracts. Favourable foreign exchange movements offset this weakness and margins are improving. Net cash was £71m at the end of September 2022. The share price rose 12% to 310.6p.

IT and managed service provider SysGroup (LON: SYS) increased interim revenues from £7.58m to £11.3m. The increasing scale will help to improve margins and there are cross-selling opportunities for recent acquisitions. Net debt is higher than expected at £1.92m. The interims will be reported on 21 November. Full year pre-tax profit is expected to improve from £2m to £2.4m. The shares are 9.76% higher at 22.5p.

Vianet (LON: VNET) says both divisions are increasing revenues. The smart machines division has increased vending connections by 24% to 52,490. Even though the pub sector is having a tough time, the smart zones division is growing revenues as the clients try to improve efficiency. Overall interim revenues are 13% ahead at £7.18m. However, there are cost pressures and Cenkos has reduced its 2022-23 forecast operating profit by £450,000 to £3.05m, with a bigger reduction of £950,000 to £4.04m next year. Even so, the share price rose 9.71% to 56.5p.

Electronic components and batteries supplier Solid State (LON: SOLI) had a strong first half with a two-month contribution from US acquisition Custom Power helping to improve revenues from £39m to £59m. Constant currency organic growth was 30%. Interim pre-tax profit is £5m. WH Ireland has upgraded its full year pre-tax profit by 5% to £9.4m. Component pricing is stabilising, but supply delays continue. The share price is 10.9% ahead at 1175p.

Late yesterday, delivered meals supplier Parsley Box (LON: MEAL) said that it was considering leaving AIM so that it is easier to raise money. The share price has collapsed. It had already fallen from 9.5p to 4p in the last few minutes of trading on Tuesday and today it has slumped a further 50.6% to 1.975p. Trading is in line with expectations.

TP Group (LON: TPG) auditor BDO has resigned, having been appointed in December 2020. That was under the former management team. The share price fell 9.52% to 0.95p.

Condor Gold (LON: CNR) has published a bankable feasibility study on the La India open pit prospect in Nicaragua. There is a probable mineral reserve of 602,000 ounces of gold and an estimated mine life of more than eight years. NPV, based on a 5% discount rate and $2,000/ounce gold price, is $205m. The initial capital requirement is $105.5m and life of mine all-in sustaining costs are $1,039/ounce. The share price fell 7.77% to 23.75p.

Tekcapital: five key takeaways from the CFO update

Tekcapital have released their October CFO update and provided vital insight into the progress of their portfolio company operations and their overall strategy.

We recently explored Tekcapital’s ‘public venture capital’ strategy which Konrad Dabrowski, Tekcapital Chief Financial Officer alludes to in their months update, reconfirming their desire to list companies early in the lifecycle to achieve commercial benefits.

Tekcapital Five CFO Update Key Takeaways

The Innovative Eyewear IPO has helped deliver on their strategy

Listing Innovative Eyewear in the current market environment was always going to be a challenge. However, the NASDAQ float was largely a success; growth capital was raised and the company has subsequently made key hires.

Innovative Eyewear have since made key executive hires in sales and marketing bringing in experience in growing brands such as New Balance and Luxottica.

Tekcapital are targeting $1 billion valuations

Tekcapital have been open with their views each of their portfolio companies has the potential to reach $1 billion valuations. Their portfolio companies are operating in sectors with large addressable markets with a great number of individuals that can improve their lives with the use of Tekcapital’s technologies.

Guident activity is ramping up

Autonomous vehicle technology company Guident have been busy showcasing their Remote Monitoring and Control Center solutions, and working with their partners to secure new customers.

Testing of the Regenerative Shock Absorber technology has made important progress through a real-world trial at their facility in Boca Raton, Florida. A particularly exciting development is the update on the development of a prototype with one the world’s leading automotive companies.

The MicroSalt growth strategy is well under way

MicroSalt have launched new products and secured new commercial agreements signalling demand for their products. MicroSalt launched two new shakers at the Expo East Food Convention in September and the products are set to be available of Amazon shortly.

The tie-up with a ready meals company demonstrates the breadth of their potential client base and end applications.

Opportunity for special dividends

Tekcapital mentioned the opportunity for special dividends in this update which is core to their shareholder value creation strategy. With the plethora of portfolio company updates, it is easy to lose sight of Tekcapital’s aim to return capital to shareholders through special dividends – at a time developments permit the distributions.