US adds 199k jobs in December, missing estimates

The US economy added 199,000 jobs in December, missing analyst estimates of an 450,000 increase in Non-Farm Payrolls.

The dollar fell in an immediate market reaction to a report that eluded to a weaker US jobs market than previously expected. The miss also sent global equities lower in the wake of the announcement, although there was only minor selling initially, the drop accelerated after the US session began.

The tepid initial reaction to report could be attributed to the mixed nature of readings including wages and the unemployment rate.

Delving deeper into the figures, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% vs expectations of 4.2% suggesting underlying strength in the US jobs market, despite a miss of the headlines jobs numbers.

Interest Rate Hike

Today’s release is particularly important for markets due to recent comments from the Federal Reserve on the pace of rate hikes through 2022.

The Federal Reserve are monitoring economic data as they move towards the first rate hike since the beginning of the pandemic.

“The FOMC could begin increasing the policy rate as early as the March meeting in order to be in a better position to control inflation,” said Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard early in the week.

It is unlikely Friday’s jobs number will change the course of the Fed and markets should expect a rate hike in the very near future, possibly the March meeting highlighted by Bullard.

Although markets were unfazed by the Non-Farm Payrolls miss, equities reacted negatively to the prospect of rate hike earlier this week. US equity indices fell, driven by a sell off in tech stocks, following hints that Fed were ready to move on rates.

“The realisation has dawned on investors that the drug of cheap money is set to be withdrawn a lot sooner than first forecast. The minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting indicated the likelihood of an earlier rate rise in 2022, and the starting gun being fired more quickly on a race to offload bonds from the bank’s balance sheet and this data will bolster these expectations,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

However, the drop in US indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 may not reflect a complete souring of sentiment, more a rotation away from highly valued tech companies into value stocks that will benefit from a prolonged economic recovery from the pandemic.

House prices rise at the fastest pace since 2007 in two-speed housing market

UK House prices rose at the fastest pace since 2007 in 2021, adding 9.8% to the average price of a home which now stands at record high £276,091.

House prices also recorded the largest cash increase since 2003.

“UK house prices climbed again in December for the sixth consecutive month in a row, up 1.1%. The average price for a property now stands at £276,091, an increase of more than £24,500 compared to December 2020, marking the strongest year-on-year cash rise since March 2003,” said Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax.

“The housing market defied expectations in 2021, with quarterly growth reaching 3.5% in December, a level not seen since November 2006. In 2021 we saw the average house price reach new record highs on eight occasions, despite the UK being subject to a ‘lockdown’ for much of the first six months of the year.”

With house prices gaining at such a fast rate, some industry analysts are now questioning whether the gains can continue into 2022 given generous government schemes such as the stamp duty holiday and the end of furlough are no longer supporting the housing market.

“The big question for the housing market is not how well it performed last year but how it will perform as 2022 rings in the changes. No one expects to see the kind of price growth delivered over the last twelve months but without some major market disruptions, the stage is set for further rises,” said Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst.

However, some industry experts pointed to the UK’s high level of inflation as a possible cause for a slow down in the property market in the coming months.

“House prices scaled new heights by the end of  2021, with record prices and the kind of rapid rises we haven’t seen in almost two decades. But inflation could bring this high-speed ascent to a shuddering halt,” said Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Regional growth

There was also a word of caution around the disparity of house prices growth across the UK’s different regions and property types when looking at the headline average property increases.

Trends such as the ‘race for space’ meant there were significant increases in rural homes with gardens, whilst city centre flats flatlined, or even fell.

“The picture is not uniform across the country and across all price points however, requiring expertise to interpret the headline numbers,” said Tom Brown, Managing Director of Real Estate at Ingenious.

“For example, city centre flats in some locations don’t always reflect the same fundamentals as people search further afield for more outside space, homes with gardens, practical workspaces and quality infrastructure. When analysing residential opportunities, it is key to understand the subsectors and the regions in which they are located as it can be quite misleading to look at the market too broadly.”

Albion Capital launches new £80 million Venture Capital Trust fundraising

Albion Capital have launched an £80 million fundraise across six of their Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs) to invest in high-growth UK companies.

A £20m top-up facility will also be included to provide further scope for additional investment into Albion’s strong pipeline of potential deals.

Albion Capital’s portfolio consists of 70 high-growth companies including Data Analytics company Quantexa, and diet and lifestyle coaching app Oviva.

Demonstrating the growth of companies held in their portfolio, the 15 largest healthcare and technology companies is Albion’s portfolio grew their revenues by 35% to £120m in the last twelve months.

Albion Capital VCTs returned an average annual return of 8.4% over the 10 years to 30 September 2021 and 10.3% p.a. over 5 years. Their returns over 3 years, excluding tax relief, are 8.4% annually.

Albion Capital’s Venture Capital Trusts each have a dedicated theme across technology, healthcare and renewable energy.

Amount to be raised under each Offer, and over-allotment facility across the six Albion VCTs:

Albion Development VCT PLC£15m/£6m
Albion Enterprise VCT PLC£20m/£3m
Albion Technology & General VCT PLC£20m/£4m
Albion Venture Capital Trust PLC£10m/£0m
Crown Place VCT PLC£7m/£5m
Kings Arms Yard VCT PLC£8m/£2m

“This new fundraise demonstrates Albion Capital’s ongoing commitment to supporting the UK’s most ambitious, innovative companies which are at an inflection point in their development, requiring additional funding to accelerate growth,” said Will Fraser-Allen, Managing Partner at Albion Capital. 

“Despite the incredible progress and acceleration of digital adoption in recent years there is no slowing of investment opportunities and we remain extremely optimistic about the future.”

“We have been privileged to manage VCTs for over 20 years and are excited to continue providing a patient source of capital to entrepreneurs who are building the future of the UK economy and creating thousands of jobs in the process.”

Venture Capital Trusts raised £685m in the 2020 tax year across a total of 42 trusts.

Samsung predicts 52% profit jump

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Samsung has said that profits are expected to jump 52% for the last three months of 2021.

Despite the chip shortage storm, the group said that it is likely to have made 13.8tn won (£8.5bn) during that period thanks to the high demand.

“Samsung is well placed to profit from the record-breaking demand for PCs and electronics,”  said analyst Sam Reynolds.

The group is also likely to benefit from currency fluctuations.

“The Korean won continues to depreciate, making Korea’s exports more attractive on the global market,” he added.

Shares in the group rose 2%.

Aston Martin sales surge

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Aston Martin sales jumped 80% last year as they sold just over 6,180 vehicles.

By the year 2024, the luxury carmaker has said it expects to hit revenues of £2bn.

Lawrence Stroll, the executive chairman, said: “I am extremely pleased that our core business has delivered to plan with over 6,000 core wholesales in the year whilst driving inventory to levels that are appropriate for an ultra-luxury business.”

“It is a very long time since the core business was in such good health as it is today.”

Also commenting was CEO Tobias Moers, who said: “There is also tremendous demand for our limited editions including the two times oversubscribed Aston Martin Valkyrie Spider, launched in August, and the plug-in hybrid super car Valhalla.”

“In addition, we have taken aggressive action on improving the efficiency and profitability of the business, through Project Horizon.”

2022 graduate jobs will jump 20%

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The Institute of Student Employers (ISE) has found that this year, vacancies for graduates will be 20% higher.

Firms particularly in energy and the environment are offering more graduate jobs than in 2021. Jobs in the public sector offered will be lower than 2021 but will remain high than pre-pandemic levels.

“The number of graduate jobs has slowly increased but this is the first time we’ve seen hiring back to pre-pandemic levels,” said Stephen Isherwood, chief executive of ISE.

“It demonstrates business confidence and how much employers continue to value a degree. However, with a significant number of employers noting a drop in the quality of applicants, students should be aware of resting on their laurels.”

British Honey revenue surges in 2021

British Honey – the AQUIS-listed producer of spirits, honey and jams – have released a trading update that points to a significant increase in revenue during 2021.

The company said they expected revenue to be no less than £8.4m in 2021, surging from the £1.6m they recorded in 2020.

The group said they were also encouraged the consolidation of their operations and saw cost savings through the next year.

“Our sales fared well in the final quarter of the year, providing good momentum into 2022 and giving us every confidence as we start the new financial year. Demand for our products remains strong and we are making rapid progress in ensuring our operations are more efficient,” said Richard Day, Chairman of BHC.

“It is essential that we have the right cost base in order to remain competitive as a business and can take advantage of the significant opportunities we are seeing in the market. Therefore, the Board considered now was the right time to consolidate our production, distribution and business operations into our Market Harborough distillery site. We will work with the teams that are affected in the coming weeks to ensure they have the support needed during this transition.” 

FTSE 100 spooked by prospect of rate hikes as US stocks dip

The FTSE 100 tracked US equities lowered on Thursday after the Federal Reserve released minutes suggesting markets should prepared for a number of rate hikes in 2022.

US technology shares were particularly heavily hit by the announcement driving notable downside in the S&P 500 and DOW due to their significant weighting in US indices.

“The Federal Reserve continues to wield considerable power over global markets and its latest comments are not what investors want to hear,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Minutes from its latest monthly meeting implied that a tight jobs market and ongoing inflation could result in a more aggressive change in monetary policy with interest rates going up sooner than expected.”

“As a result, tech stocks have been heavily sold down, including a 3.3% decline in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index last night on Wall Street. A lot of tech companies trade on high valuations with the hope of large profit growth in the future rather than today, and these types of stocks are very sensitive to rising rates.”

The decline in the FTSE 100 masked a number of positive updates from UK corporates including retailer Next. Next raised their outlook for the year ahead after a strong festive trading period. Indeed, they felt sufficiently confident to return cash to investors in the form of a special dividend, despite concerns over rising costs.

“For all the tales of woe on the high street, there is one shining jewel to be found in the form of Next. There aren’t many bricks and mortar retailers dishing out special dividends or upgrading guidance multiple times over,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Greggs also released a bumper trading update and reported £1,230m sales in 2021, up from £811m in 2020 and £1,168m in 2019. However, Greggs results were overshadowed by the departure of their CEO.

“The big news and overshadowing another solid earnings performance is long-time CEO Roger Whiteside is retiring, to be replaced by retail and property head Roisin Currie,” explained Joshua Raymond, Director at financial brokerage XTB.

“Given the fantastic growth of the Greggs brand under Whiteside’s leadership, its no surprise to see some instability in the share price this morning, which trades lower by 2%.”

Next, the FTSE 100 and Power Metal Resources spin-out with Alan Green

Alan Green joins the first UK Investor Magazine Podcast of 2022 to discuss the key themes in markets this week and a number of UK equities.

The FTSE 100 posted a 4.6% gain in December and started the new year with a bang as it traded above 7,500 to hit pre-pandemic highs.

However, today saw markets hit by fears over the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve sending the FTSE 100 below 7,500.

We discuss Next after they posted an encouraging trading update in which they raised their forecasts for the year ahead and announced a 160p special dividend. 

Alan outlines a recent interview he had with ECR Minerals and their recent developments. 

Power Metal Resources is planning a number of spin-outs including Golden Metal Resources and we take a look at their plans for an IPO in April. 

B&M revenues lift

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B&M revenues have increased and the group increased its full-year expectations.

For the 13 weeks from 26 September 2021 to 25 December 2021, the retailer said that revenues increased 14%.

“Our decision to take receipt of imported Christmas stock early in the season meant we were able to provide customers with great products at great prices,” said Simon Arora, B&M chief executive.

“The consistency of performance in the core B&M UK business reflects the growing appeal of our stores as a destination visit for seasonal products, as well as the strength of our supply chain,” he added.

The boss said he expects difficulties in the year ahead including “ongoing supply chain disruption, inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding possible Covid-related restrictions.”