NatWest has cast a shadow over what had been a positive week for UK banking earnings after Barclays and Standard Chartered reported upbeat Q1 results earlier in the week.
NatWest’s update differed from Barclays and Standard Chartered on two key metrics; net interest margins and deposits.
Barclays provided an encouraging outlook on net interest margins (NIM) and said they expected full-year NIM to be higher than the previously guided 3.2%. In contrast, NatWest said they saw no upside from previous guidance.
In addition, NatWest is the first UK bank to report a negative impact on customer deposits in the first quarter.
As a result, investors dumped Natwest shares on Friday as the stock fell over 5% in early trade.
“A drop in customer deposits, while nothing like on the scale seen at other crisis-ridden banks, has helped put the wind up investors in NatWest,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
“The gap between the amount NatWest charges for loans compared to what it pays out for deposits, also known as the net interest margin, is also tighter than many had hoped.
“This runs counter to Barclays’ own first quarter numbers which showed higher base interest rates were feeding into a strong net interest margin.”
NatWest CEO Alison Rose called the outlook ‘uncertain’ in a TV interview with Bloomberg but the bank set aside less provisions for bad credit than expected.
Indeed, while NatWest shares were down heavily on Friday, the bank’s underlying performance was strong. Total income grew 28.9% to £3.9bn in the first quarter.
“NatWest rounds off a good week for the major UK banks, beating earnings expectations as provisions set aside for debt defaults were better than first thought,” said Matt Britzman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
“This is an ongoing trend, somewhat bucking the idea that the global banking system is in troubled water. In fact, the major banks across the UK look to be in rude health, and NatWest is just the latest example. Capital levels remain healthy, and the portfolio’s debt defaults are stable and low.”