ASOS shares dive despite announcing year of progress in inventory management and cashflow

ASOS shares slipped in early trade on Tuesday despite the online fashion retailer announcing final results on Tuesday that demonstrated a year of progress and delivery on goals to reduce inventory and refocus on fashion.

ASOS has reported significant financial improvements in its latest results, with adjusted EBITDA reaching £80.1m in FY24, positioning at the upper end of market expectations.

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The company achieved a remarkable turnaround in free cash flow, generating £37.7m, representing a £250.7m improvement compared to the previous year. This enhancement was supported by comprehensive refinancing and the establishment of a Topshop and Topman joint venture.

ASOS has completed a substantial stock clearance program, reducing inventory levels by approximately 50% since FY22 to £520m. This reduction included a £100m write-down as part of the transition to a new commercial model. The company has significantly improved its stock profile, with aged inventory reduced by 75% year-on-year and more than 80% of current stock less than six months old.

“Asos is executing its “back-to-fashion” strategy by shifting its focus from dresses to a more balanced mix of casual wear, athleisure, and everyday styles,” said Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge.

“This change not only enhances profitability but also allows for a wider range of trends and storytelling in marketing. By refining its offerings, Asos aims to attract a diverse customer base, from aspiring teenagers to style-conscious thirty-somethings.

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“Asos has shifted its focus from rapid sales growth to profitability, reducing stock and emphasizing products with higher contributions. While this may hurt short-term sales, our experts believe it’s a smart move for long-term sustainability, especially in challenging markets like the US and Germany, where returns can be high.”

Looking ahead to FY25, ASOS projects substantial margin improvements, forecasting at least a 300 basis point increase in gross margin to exceed 46%. The company expects adjusted EBITDA to grow by at least 60% to between £130m and £150m, despite an anticipated £10m to £20m negative impact from the Topshop and Topman joint venture in its first year. Free cash flow is expected to remain neutral, with capital expenditure projected at £130m and cash interest costs of £35m.

In the medium term, ASOS aims to achieve a gross margin of approximately 50% through increased full-price sales and flexible stock models. The company plans to reduce capital expenditure to 3-4% of sales and targets an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 8%.

Management expects these improvements, combined with enhanced profitability and cash flow, to contribute to reduced net debt and interest levels over time.

The ASOS share price was down over 49ers % at the time of writing.

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