According to today’s ORB poll for the Telegraph, 49% of respondents would vote to leave the EU whilst 47% would prefer to remain part of the 28-member bloc.
Whilst there is only a difference of 2%, it has highlighted the uncertainty of the up-coming referendum and has created concerns among David Cameron and others supporting the ‘stay’ campaign.
Analysis of the survey by Sir Lynton Crosby shows that the results show greater support for the Brexit campaign due to greater motivation and enthusiasm. Crosby identified the potential problem with those in favour of staying within the EU:
“The real risk for the Remain campaign is complacency. What is clear is that this campaign has a long way to run, and despite what voters currently believe, the outcome really is in the balance,”
This was highlighted by the ORB poll, which showed that 76% of the ‘stay’ voters expected Britain to stay within the bloc, however a quarter of these were unlikely to vote.
“It is obvious they have a preference for the UK to remain in the EU, but the outcome of the referendum is not currently important enough to them to motivate them to show up. This demonstrates the consequence of the outcome lacking personal relevance to them” said Crosby, who helped Cameron win an outright victory in last May’s national election.
The survey also showed that the majority of respondents’ did not believe that their vote would make a difference, and expected that the UK would remain in the EU regardless.
15/03/2016
