The FTSE 100 was on the back foot again on Friday as the pressures of a revised interest rate outlook, Donald Trump’s second term as president and disappointment at measures to stimulate China weighed on the index.
Miners were among the top losers and accounted for a large proportion of the points wiped off the FTSE 100 on Friday as the latest news from China failed to inspire confidence in a recovery in economic growth.
“The FTSE 100 was dragged lower by resources stocks on Friday morning,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
“After a hectic week investors had more to digest in the form of further Chinese stimulus but what has been announced so far doesn’t seem to be moving the needle and the risks to China from a second Trump presidency are now overshadowing efforts to get the economy moving. The question on investors’ lips will be whether this encourages Beijing to unveil a bolder package of measures.
“Asian stocks sputtered overnight and the UK-listed miners who are reliant on China for much of their demand were also on the back foot.”
The Bank of England’s inflation projections and the pace of interest rate cuts issued yesterday provided another reason for caution among equity bulls on Friday.
Although stocks were broadly negative on Friday, IAG investors had some reason to be optimistic after the airliner smashed estimates, sending the stock 6% higher.
“British Airways owner IAG soared past estimates in this morning’s third-quarter results, with a revenue line beat and an even bigger one on operating profit,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.
“In what’s been a miraculous turnaround from the troubles during the pandemic, IAG’s got its balance sheet into a strong enough position to start a €350mn buyback. There was a slight trim to capacity growth expectations for the year suggesting an easing into the fourth quarter, but broadly speaking this was a great set of results and analysts will likely be revising profit projections higher as a result.”
Vistry was the FTSE 100’s biggest casualty after further slashing costs due to cost miscalculations at its South Division. The housebuilder was rocked in early October by initial reports of cost projection musculations, and today’s drop means the housebuilder, which was doing so well after the merger of Bovis Homes, Linden Homes, and Countryside, is now down 18% year to date.
Persimmon is down only 3% YTD, while Taylor Wimpey is almost flat.
“Vistry delivered some more bad news for investors to build into their expectations. To set the scene, back in October, news broke that total build costs at nine of its housebuilding projects in the South had been underestimated. Revised estimates at the time caused a big £115mn hit to profit expectations, spread over a three-year period,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.
“Vistry’s since carried out a deeper dive into the issues, and it’s come to light that things were worse than realised at the time. As a result of this and other challenges, this year’s profit expectations have been lowered again by £50mn to £300mn.”