Aquis weekly movers: Samarkand leaving Aquis

Tectonic Gold (LON: TTAU) says farm-in partner White Energy has completed stage 1 of its spending commitment and earned a 51% interest in Specimen Hill. A further $1m of spending will earn a further 25%. White Energy can then pay $2m to buy the minority shareholding, although Tectonic Gold will retain a 3% perpetual net smelter royalty. There were no revenues in the six months to December 2024. There was £119,000 in cash at the end of 2024. The share price is one-third higher at 0.2p.

Ormonde Mining (LON: ORM) investee company TRU Precious Metals Corp is going to drill test a pipeline of exploration targets at the Golden Rose project that has been optioned by Eldorado Gold Corporation. The share price increased 10.7% to 0.155p.

Invinity Energy Systems LON: (IES) has reached agreement to proceed with the LODES project, which is a 21MWh VS3 system co-located with a solar array. The total cost of the project is £20m. Planning permission has to be adjusted before the project can commence construction and the project could be completed and operating in the second half of 2026. There should be some revenues recognised in 2025. A loss is still forecast for this year despite a jump in forecast revenues to £35.5m. The share price rose 6.06% to 8.75p.

Ananda Pharma (LON: ANA) has received approval from the Alfed Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee in Australia for its phase 1 pharmacokinetic study of the lead cannabinoid drug candidate MRX1. The first patient should be dosed in the third quarter of 2025. The data can support regulatory filings in other countries. The share price is 5.88% higher at 0.45p.

Jonathan Neame bought 4,000 shares in Shepherd Neame (LON: SHEP) at 490p each. Richard Oldfield acquired 20,800 shares at 485p each and 5,000 shares at 484p each. The share price edged up 4.12% to 505p.

FALLERS

Samarkand (LON: SMK) is asking for shareholder approval to leave Aquis. The ecommerce technology provider has adapted its strategy to focus on its own brands and is less dependent on the Chinese market for growth. The costs of being quoted will be saved. The plan is to leave on 7 May and move to a JP Jenkins matched bargains facility. Even before the announcement, the lack of liquidity meant that the board does not believe the share price reflects the value of the business and it fell a further 82.1% to 0.625p.

ChallengerX has changed its name to Nyce International (LON: NYCE). The share price declined 22.2% to 0.175p.

AIM-quoted drug discovery company ImmuPharma (LON: IMM) has agreed to extend the period of warrants in Aquis-quoted skincare technology developer Incanthera (LON: INC). The 7.27 million warrants are exercisable at 9.5p each and they will be extended until the end of September. ImmuPharma will pay Incanthera a profit share of 30% of the difference between exercise and market prices. Incanthera has agreed to pay creditors £380,000 in shares at 8.5p each. The Incanthera share price dipped 20.9% to 8.5p.

KR1 (LON: KR1) had net assets of 58.2p/share at the end of February 2025. During February there was £462,000 of income generated from digital assets. The share price slid 18.4% to 31p.

Mendell Helium (LON: MDH) says the option to acquire Kansas-based M3 Helium has been extended to the end of June 2025. In principle, there is an offload agreement in principle with Scout Energy for the Rost well. The proceeds of this will fund the Hugoton farm-in agreement fee. The share price is 18.2% lower at 2.25p.

Automotive electrification technology developer Equipmake (LON: EQIP) has secured a £5m cash injection from Caterpillar Inc via convertible loan. This has an annual interest charge of 10% and lasts until the end of March 2029. The conversion price is the lower of 3.125p and 80% of the average trailing 30-day share price. There is also a development agreement for electric drivetrain products. This concludes the strategic review. An agreement with wave energy technology company CorPower Ocean will generate £650,000 for the first phase of the development of a generator and SiC (silicon carbide) inverter system to accelerate the commercialisation of the wave energy equipment. The share price dipped 17.9% to 1.15p.

Marula Mining (LON: MARU) has received the first revenues from sales of copper concentrate from the Kinusi copper mine in Tanzania. The share price decreased 17.1% to 3.625p.

Ride video capture technology provider Visum Technologies (LON: VIS) has extended its contract with the Children’s Day Foundation Linnanmaki in Finland for a further three years. This should generate a total of £100,000 in revenues. In the six months to December 2024, revenues fell from £130,000 to £71,000. The loss was $325,000. The share price declined 16.7% to 0.125p.

EPE Special Opportunities (LON: EO.P) has launched a share buyback programme of up to 2% of the shares in issue. The share price slipped 3.23% to 150p.

AIM movers: Shuka Minerals extends convertible and refinancing proposal for Minoan

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Shuka Minerals (LON: SKA) has agreed with AUO Commercial Brokerage to extend the availability period for the entire £2m of the unsecured convertible note instrument to March 2026. The new redemption date is March 2027. Shuka Minerals is making progress towards the acquisition of the Kabwe mine. AUO has yet to provide any of the funding. The conversion price is 15p/share. The share price is two-fifths higher at 3.5p.

Shares in currency services provider Argentex (LON: AGFX) are continuing their upward momentum following full year figures earlier in the week. Chief executive Jim Ormonde bought 320,338 shares at 46.8p each. The outcome for 2024 was better than expected. Cash generated from operating activities improved from £13.6m to £16.7m. However, Argentex still fell into loss and may not return to pre-tax profit this year. Investment in digital infrastructure will help long-term growth. The share price rose a further 8.24% to 46p.

Keras Resources (LON: KRS) says the Togo state-owned company that has a mining permit for the Nayega manganese mine has appointed a contact miner and agreed an offtake deal with Fujax. Keras has advisory and brokerage agreements that entitle it to an advisory fee of 1.5% of gross revenues generated by the Nayega mine for three years and 6% of gross revenues for brokerage services over the lesser of 3.5 years and 900,000 tonnes of manganese ore produced and sold. The share price improved 7.69% to 1.4p.

Video editing technology developer Blackbird (LON: BIRD) reported a dip in revenues from £1.94m to £1.61m because of a lost contract. Operating costs were reduced. There was a £2.4m outflow from operating activities and there is £3.77m of cash in the balance sheet. Blackbird has already gained around 100 subscribers to the online collaborative editing platform elevate.io since its recent full launch and there are more than one thousand users. Blackbird has secured total revenues of £960,000 for 2025. That is lower than the same time in the previous year because that included a deal for the Olympics. The share price recovered 7.41% to 3.625p.

FALLERS

Minoan Group (LON: MIN) says trading in the shares is likely to be suspended because it does not have enough cash to complete the audit of its accounts to October 2024. The suspension is expected on 1 May, but it may come earlier because of the lack of cash. Minoan has not bee able to extend the secured loan, totalling £1.19m, provided by DAGG. A proposal from DAG includes the conversion of the loan into shares and an additional £4.44m cash injection in return for shares. Some members of DAGG would also write off £1.1m they are owed. DAGG wants to nominate management to take the company forward. The share price slumped 61.5% to 0.125p.

Beowulf Mining (LON: BEM) has revealed the full terms of its previously announced fundraising. A placing and rights issue could raise up to £4m and a retail offer could raise up to £700,000 at 11/share. The first £100,000 of the retail offer is subject to clawback relating to the placing. The WRAP retail offer will have a subscription period between 16 April and 2 May. The share price declined 35% to 13p.

Cleantech Lithium (LON: CTL) says the special lithium operating contract application process for the Laguna Verde project is taking longer than anticipated. The response to the application was expected in early April, but there is not indication of when it will happen. The share price fell 5.13% to 9.25p.

FTSE 100 resilience disintegrates as banks sink, China announces retaliatory measures

The FTSE 100 showed remarkable resilience yesterday in the initial reaction to Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, outperforming most European and US indices.

However, this resilience disappeared on Friday as FTSE 100 banking shares crumbled, sending the index sharply lower. Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Standard Chartered and NatWest all fell more than 5%.

Standard Chartered is the FTSE 100’s biggest casualty of the tariffs, losing around 17% of its value over the past week.

There were also losses for mining stocks and oil majors on Friday, which culminated in sending London’s leading index down by more than 3%.

Selling picked up after reports that China would implement 34% retaliatory tariffs on US goods and trade restrictions on rare earths. Investors will fear that more countries follow suit and take retaliatory measures. Some European leaders have been vocal in their support for hitting back at Trump.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has said he’s open to negotiation. Equity bulls will hope the bookmaker-style charts of tariffs revealed on Wednesday were a PR stunt for his core voter base and an extreme negotiating tactic that will spur favourable trade deals.

Whatever the underlying motives are, markets are taking the tariffs on face value after a period of complacency, and the reaction in global equities has been cataclysmic.

Some economists are now predicting a US recession.

“With markets having suffered their worst week in five years, investors were hiding under their duvet on Friday hoping the pain would go away,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. 

“Unfortunately, the relentless selling continued, with markets falling across Asia and Europe and futures prices implying the US will do the same when trading begins later on.

“There are so many moving parts that getting your head around the situation isn’t easy. With countless sectors set to be hit by tariffs, it’s difficult to know where to begin to comprehend the situation.”

US indices had their worst trading since the pandemic yesterday, and the selling showed little sign of easing. S&P 500 futures were 1% weaker in the premarket.

Legendary investor Bill Gross has warned against buying the dip. It appears, for today at least, investors are taking heed.

Cavendish enjoys strong growth in private markets

Cavendish plc, a leading UK investment bank, has reported expected revenues of approximately £55 million for the financial year ended 31 March 2025, in line with the previous year on a like-for-like basis.

The company maintained profitability throughout both halves of the financial year, demonstrating the appeal of its service offering across public and private markets.

Despite challenging market conditions, Cavendish increased its market share in public markets, completing the last UK IPO of 2024 and the first of 2025.

However, the general malaise in UK public markets has seen Cavendish increase their focus on the UK’s private markets where they have ongoing relationships with 150 UK private equity firms.

The firm said its private markets business delivered particularly strong revenue growth, reflecting the strength of its advisory capabilities and continued demand for high-quality execution in this segment.

Cavendish has recently opened offices in Manchester and Birmingham to strengthen their regional presence and better serve their private market clients.

The company enters the new financial year with £21 million in net cash and more active mandates than at the same point last year.

UK Deeptech, Quantum Computing, and PISCES with Amadeus Capital Partners

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to welcome Nick Kingsbury, Partner at Amadeus Capital Partners, for a deep dive into early-stage UK deeptech companies and what the upcoming introduction of the PISCES private company trading venue means for the UK’s private markets.

Nick provides a fascinating insight into Amadeus Capital Partners’ investment strategy, paying particular attention to their approach to UK deeptech companies and the core characteristics they look for in portfolio companies.

We discuss a selection of exciting UK companies in the quantum computing space and the specific real-world solutions they provide.

The Private Intermittent Securities and Capital Exchange System, better known as PISCES, is set to launch this year in the UK, aiming to provide investors a venue for improved trading of unlisted shares.

We explore the purpose of PISCES, and Nick gives his views on the benefits for the UK’s private markets.

Kodal Minerals update fails to inspire investors

Kodal Minerals shares were unmoved by the latest update on the company’s lithium mining operations.

Despite Kodal Minerals’ Bougouni Lithium Project in Southern Mali reaching the significant production milestone of over 11,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate, shares in the company were trading marginally lower at the time of writing on Friday.

The company is nearing completion of the Bougouni Lithium mine and is carrying out optimisation of the processing plant, preparing for full production.

“I am pleased to confirm that the ramp-up and optimisation of the Project and DMS processing plant is progressing and, positively, we are seeing ongoing improvements through the modifications and adjustments to the DMS processing plant as advancements continues,” said Bernard Aylward, CEO of Kodal Minerals.

The project, which achieved its first lithium spodumene concentrate in February 2025, has handled 13,400 tonnes of material, yielding 1,920 tonnes of spodumene concentrate with a grade of 5.63% Li₂O.

Despite this progress, export plans to China via the Port of Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire remain on hold pending the transfer of the Bougouni Mining Licence from Future Minerals SARL to Les Mines de Lithium de Bougouni SA (LMLB). Whilst the necessary company structure updates have been completed and approved by relevant Mali Government ministers, the application awaits final approval from President Assimi Goïta. This is an issue that has now dragged on for months.

The licence transfer delay has prompted Kodal Mining (UK) Ltd, which holds a 49% interest in the project, to formally request an extension for its scheduled US$7.5 million payment to the Mali government, as outlined in the November 2024 Memorandum of Understanding. Government officials have acknowledged receipt of this request, though a formal response is still pending.

Although Kodal is moving towards full commercial production at Bougouni, the Kodal share price still hasn’t managed to build a base above levels seen in 2021.

AIM movers: Brighton Pier rebounds and ex-dividends

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Shares in Brighton Pier (LON: PIER) rebounded 114.8% to 14.5p following the announcement of plans to ask shareholders for approval for an exit from AIM. It costs up to £300,000/year to be on the junior market and there is a lack of liquidity. It is difficult to raise significant amounts of money. There are plans to arrange a refinancing with two major shareholders. The leisure group intends to secure a matched bargain facility. The share price was 17.75p before the announcement.

Respiratory drugs developer Synairgen (LON: SNG) says that TFG Asset Management says it will waive its right of refusal on transfers of more than one million shares up until any further fundraising. TFG owns 86.9% of the company. The AIM admission will be cancelled on 9 April. An Asset Match facility has been secured for two years. The share price recovered 17% to 1.1p.

Strategic Minerals (LON: SML) generated revenues of $1.18m in the first quarter of 2025, which is year-on-year growth of 41%, from the Cobre magnetite operation in New Mexico. The group had $530,000 in the bank. The share price increased 6.67% to 0.4p.

Shares in Zinnwald Lithium (LON: ZNWD) continue to rise following yesterday’s announcement that the Saxony state government has recognised the company’s eponymous lithium project as a project of outstanding importance. The company recently published a pre-feasibility study showing a pre-tax NPV of €3.3bn with a mine life of 40 years. The share price rose 5.93% to 6.25p.

Cambridge Cognition (LON: COG) is providing digital cognitive and voice assessments for two phase 3 clinical trials in adolescents with clinical depressive. The combined value of the contracts, which last until 2027 and 2029 respectively, is £1.2m. This will help Cambridge Cognition to meet 2025 revenue expectations of £12.5m, which would return the company to profit. The share price improved 4.17% to 37.5p.

FALLERS

Oracle Power (LON: ORCP) says assay results for five holes from the Northern Zone gold project in Western Australia and four have highlighted results. These confirm and enlarge the shallow gold mineralisation. Samples from four other holes are still be analysed and reported on. The share price declined 11.9% to 0.0185p.

Cancer treatments developer ValiRx (LON: VAL) has terminated its exclusivity agreement with TheoremRx Inc and ValiRx will move the VAL201 prospect to a prostate cancer focused special purpose vehicle. There is interest from a consortium and charities regarding possible support for development. The share price fell 10.5% to 0.425p.

K3 Technology (LON: KBT) intends to return £29m – equivalent to 64.8p/share – to shareholders via tender following a recent disposal and it is consulting with shareholders about whether to remain on AIM. The software company will still have £6m in cash and remaining software businesses that are a Microsoft Dynamics fashion industry partner and a supplier of software to IKEA. The share price slipped 6.32% to 89p.

Ex-dividends

Caledonia Mining Corporation (LON: CMCL) is paying a dividend of 14 cents/share and the share price rose 50p to 925p.

IDOX (LON: IDOX) is paying a final dividend of 0.7p/share and the share price declined 1.8p to 55.8p.

Personal Group Holdings (LON: PGH) is paying a final dividend of 10p/share and the share price fell 16p to 233p.

Quartix Holdings (LON: QTX) is paying a final dividend of 3p/share and the share price slipped 4p to 193p.

Real Estate Investors (LON: RLE) is paying a dividend of 0.4p/share and the share price is unchanged at 30p.

Three S&P 500 shares to consider after Trump’s tariffs by Hargreaves Lansdown

The S&P 500 is firmly in correction territory after the announcement of tariffs on America’s trading partners sent global equities sharply lower.

Indeed, the S&P 500 was one of the most heavily hit indices in the immediate reaction. Some investors may see this as a buying opportunity for some of the world’s leading companies.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, has picked out three S&P 500 companies for consideration in the wake of tariff-induced sell-off.

In his own words, Nathan outlines three US shares he has his eye on:

GE Healthcare – imaging a brighter future

“GE Healthcare is a top-tier provider of medical technology. It has a leading position in imaging equipment like X-ray machines and MRI scanners. This is the biggest part of the business and leaves it well-placed to address the ageing global population and the demand for early detection of cancer and other illnesses. 

It’s not all about lumpy, expensive hardware sales though. There are a host of consumables and software add-ons that help smooth the revenue profile.  The huge volumes of data generated by medical imaging tests mean there’s plenty of scope for artificial intelligence (AI) to improve patient outcomes and efficiency within healthcare systems. It’s an opportunity the company is pursuing aggressively, and GE is already generating commercial traction. 

GE closed out 2024 with a quarter of modest revenue growth and margins expanding quicker than guided. Headwinds in China weren’t enough to offset growth elsewhere, but it’s something to keep an eye on especially as trade tensions mount.  However, China’s a relatively small part of the revenue mix, with North America by far the largest region by revenue. Economic uncertainty is also building in the US, but essential diagnostic services tend to be relatively resilient to cyclical ups and downs. 

Overall, organic revenue growth is expected to improve this year. And there’s hope for further progress towards the medium-term target of operating profit margins approaching 20%, driven by efficiency gains and product innovations. To achieve all this, GE spends over $1bn a year on Research & Development, but that’s supported by healthy cash flows and a strong balance sheet. The high pace of innovation carries some execution risk. But the valuation doesn’t look too demanding, and investors could be rewarded if the plan can be delivered.

Nvidia – AI leadership credentials intact

Despite another set of forecast-beating earnings, as well as better-than-expected guidance for the current quarter, NVIDIA’s valuation has slid further below the long-term average so far this year. 

We think it’s been caught up in the wider pivot towards more defensive sectors. But it also reflects concerns about trade restrictions and the scale of future demand for NVIDIA’s powerful computer processors. 

We’re encouraged by the innovations set out at the company’s recent developer conference. The group looks well positioned to retain its leadership in computing for AI as the focus moves from the training of models to reasoning in real-time or inference. While there are some meaningful rivals emerging in the inference space, NVIDIA offers a compelling solution to its customers. 

It’s not just the chips that make NVIDIA’s product so appealing, the CUDA software platform that enables users to optimise the hardware is key. AI has the scope to transform practically every industry, and NVIDIA is proving to be a key partner in everything from healthcare through to self-driving vehicles. 

However, the ability to scale does depend on key partners. While recent production constraints seem to have been addressed, there’s no guarantee the supply chain will continue to keep up with soaring demand. That said, the next iteration of the company’s commuting architecture is expected to be less challenging to roll out. 

CEO Jensen Huang thinks there’s scope for revenues to grow more than five-fold to $1trn by 2028, but it’s too early to say how likely that is. In the near term, forecasts for revenue to nearly treble to over $250bn by the end of the next financial year don’t feel unreasonable. On that basis, prospective earnings multiple of 25x looks attractive. But the company is under immense scrutiny, so any missteps are likely to be punished. 

A party connected to the author owns shares in NVIDIA

Uber – from rides to riches

Uber, America’s leading ride-hailing service, is transitioning into a global transportation powerhouse, offering food delivery and freight services. Its asset-light model connects drivers and riders, delivering better value and service as user numbers grow and the network broadens. Thanks to its multi-service offering, Uber’s ride-hailing, delivery, and freight services attract a broad range of customers. Many Uber Eats users come from the rides app and vice versa, which helps to keep more customers on the platform and boost overall usage and spending.

The ride-hailing arm is the main money-maker, and trends are improving here. It’s expanding into new regions, allowing fixed costs to be spread across more journeys. This helps them keep prices competitively low, win more rides, and increase drivers’ earnings – a key factor in growing its fleet and improving the user experience. There are some challenges though, including regulatory hurdles and ongoing disputes with local taxi drivers. Stiff competition can also lead to heavy price discounting. It’s important that Uber remains competitive on costs, without compromising on service levels or its variety of offerings to consumers. 

Uber’s food delivery business is growing at pace, becoming profitable and expanding beyond food to groceries and other essentials. Advertising revenue in this division is expected to grow faster than order revenue, as Uber effectively targets user-centric ads based on habits.

Autonomous Vehicles (AV) are an emerging trend, and Uber plans to approach this by enabling AV partners to scale using their platform, rather than building vehicles themselves. We support this approach, but there’s a lot of execution risk ahead and no guarantee that partnerships will endure.

Uber has become a part of everyday life through its diverse range of offerings. The group’s growth profile, combined with improving margins and impressive cash generation, makes for a compelling proposition. That’s recognised by a forward earnings multiple in the high 20s. We think that’s merited by its strong competitive position and superior service offering. But it also means there’s some pressure to deliver in the face of economic uncertainty.”

FTSE 100 outperforms as global equities sink after Trump’s tariff announcement

The FTSE 100 sank with global equities on Thursday as investors reacted to the most severe US trade tariffs on its partners for over 100 years.

Donald Trump has taken an axe to years of globalisation and in the process wiped off billions in global equity value.

London’s leading index was trading down 0.9% at the time of writing. However, the FTSE 100 got off lightly compared to other major equity indices after the UK was hit by tariffs of only 10%. The EU was slapped with a 20% tariff.

The Japanese Nikkei shed 2.7% while S&P 500 futures tumbled 3%. Germany’s DAX lost 1.3%.

“Trump’s bold attempt to reshape international trade has sent shockwaves through global markets,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The effects of ‘Liberation Day’ are being felt far and wide, with Asian markets down overnight, European stocks under pressure in early trading, and US futures pointing to a big drop later today.

“With tariffs reaching levels unseen in over a century, the US is poised to rake in an additional $600bn in tariff revenue in an optimistic scenario, or put that another way, that’d be a $600bn added cost for businesses or consumers to stomach.”

There was a clear divide in the performance of FTSE 100 companies on Thursday. Those with substantial overseas exposure or close ties with the US were heavily hit, while those that have more of a grounding in the UK tended to be ok, or even gained.

Standard Chartered, a bank with operations focused on Asia, was the FTSE 100’s top faller, losing over 6%, as investors reacted to an additional 34% tariff on China.

HSBC lost 5% on the same sentiments.

JD Sports shares tumbled over 5% on supply chain concerns after countries such as Thailand and Vietnam were hit with some of Trump’s highest tariffs. The company’s North American growth ambitions have now also become more complex.

UK-centric property companies were enjoying hopes of lower interest rates as a result of trade tariffs. Student accommodation specialist Unite Group rose 3% with other REITs, Land Securities and Londonmetric, rising over 2%.

Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon were over 1% higher.

Utility companies jumped on a safe-haven trade. Severn Trent was the top riser at the time of writing, with United Utilities not far behind.

How Will Vietnam Handle Trump’s Trade Escalation? 

US President Donald Trump has announced he will impose 46% tariffs on Vietnamese imports, one of his most aggressive trade moves and the third-highest rate imposed on any country. 

In his announcement, Mr Trump imposed tariffs on more than 100 countries, adding to several levies he has already imposed on Mexico and Canada, as well as steel, aluminium, vehicles, and parts. 

Mr Trump repeatedly stressed that the tariffs were reciprocal. At his announcement at the White House Rose Garden, he said: “That means they do it to us, and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get simpler than that.” 

On Vietnam, he said: “They charge us 90%, we’re going to charge them 46% tariff.” 

The White House has not revealed its methodology, but there have been suggestions that each country’s tariffs are assessed by simply dividing their surplus with the US by their exports to the US. The “reciprocal” tariffs appear to be calculated at half this rate. 

The key question for Vietnam now is how it will minimise the impact of these new tariffs and how it might negotiate to try to lower them. 

Why is Vietnam a target? 

Vietnam has a lopsided trade relationship with the US. In 2024, Vietnam had the third-largest goods trade surplus with the US after China and Mexico, growing by 18% over the previous year to $123.5 billion. Unlike other major US trading partners, Vietnam imports few US goods to help balance the ledger. 

Moreover, Vietnam has long faced accusations that its manufacturers were re-badging goods to help Chinese manufacturers skirt existing tariffs, adding little or no value locally. A recent Wall Street Journal analysis of data from CEIC found that there was still a strong correlation between Vietnam’s imports from China and its exports to the US. 

On the other hand, a recent Harvard Business School working paper found that rerouting is less common than previously thought. An analysis by the Lowy Institute suggested that three-quarters of imports from China “can be explained by factors other than hidden Chinese exports to America,” and Vietnam is “playing a helpful role in the diversification of US supply chains away from China”. But perception matters, and Washington believes it’s a problem. 

How much will it hurt? 

Data analytics firm Exiger calculated that Vietnamese goods would face US$63 billion in tariffs. There’s no getting around it: this is likely to have a negative impact on Vietnam’s economy, at least over the short term. 

There are still many unanswered questions about how the tariffs will work in practice, and it’s entirely possible that the headlines won’t match the reality. Even so, Vietnam’s growth strategy is tangled up in trade. Trump’s blanket 10% global tariff will dampen growth globally, which could dent Vietnam’s export ambitions. 

It might also have an impact on foreign investment. Vietnam faces higher tariffs than many neighbouring economies, such as Thailand (35%), Indonesia (32%), Malaysia (24%) and the Philippines (17%). A business that’s considering establishing a factory in Asia is likely to take this into consideration. 

This is more likely to affect higher-value manufacturing projects. Similarly high tariffs on Cambodia and Bangladesh mean that there is less likely to be an impact on Vietnam’s textiles or shoe factories. 

What can Vietnam do from here? 

The good news is that Vietnam has a few cards up its sleeve. Hanoi is already working hard to get Washington to change course. Notably, Mr Trump was very complimentary in his remarks on Vietnam, even if he was sharply critical of their trade policies. 

“Great negotiators, great people! They like me, I like them,” he said. 

Hanoi is appealing to the President and his allies personally. The Trump organisation reportedly plans to invest billions of dollars in Vietnam’s golf courses, hotels and real estate. Similarly, the government has granted Elon Musk’s SpaceX permission to trial its Starlink satellite internet service in Vietnam. 

Vietnam is very unlikely to follow Canada or Europe in applying reciprocal tariffs. At present, it imports too few US goods to impose any real pain. The flip side is that it wouldn’t have to increase imports by an unreasonable amount to lower the surplus. 

In March, US and Vietnamese companies signed more than $4bn in deals, mostly for oil and gas exploration. Its furniture industry is eyeing more hardwood imports from the US. It may also look at soy imports and aircraft purchases from Boeing. Vietnam is sending a deputy Prime Minister (formerly from the Ministry of Finance) as part of a delegation to the US this weekend. 

Moreover, Vietnam has already announced it would slash tariffs on various agricultural products (frozen chicken legs, pistachios, almonds, fresh apples, cherries, and raisins). It will cut the tariff on liquefied natural gas from 5% to 2%. Duties on cars will be reduced considerably to 32%. And tariffs on ethanol will be halved to 5%. 

Geopolitical advantages 

As Vietnam tries to make its case, it will likely use certain geopolitical advantages. If US-China tensions grow – not unlikely given the tariffs are largely aimed at China specifically – Washington might see value in cultivating better ties with Hanoi, which has a complicated relationship with its northern neighbour. 

Also, unlike Canada and Mexico, Vietnam doesn’t share a border with the US. Trump’s first tariffs were on Canada and Mexico, allegedly to pressure them on fentanyl and immigration. Neither issue is a sticking point with Hanoi. 

Vietnamese businesses will look both east and west 

Some of the biggest Vietnamese businesses already have a presence in the US, mainly because they want access to the world’s most lucrative market. Tech leader FPT has been in the US since 2008. Carmaker Vinfast is already selling EVs in the US and has plans to open a factory there. 

This process might accelerate under Trump, but it will be difficult to fully know the impact of the tariffs, as they will rarely be the sole reason for a Vietnamese business expanding in the US. According to one report, more than 100 Vietnamese enterprises have registered to attend an event to learn about investment and business opportunities in the US. However, the current regulatory environment makes it relatively difficult for Vietnamese businesses to invest overseas, so there might be limits to this approach. 

At the same time, Asia has been the engine of global economic growth for decades now, and one inevitable result is that trade within the region is more significant than ever, facilitated by a network of free trade agreements. For this reason, Vietnamese businesses might vote with their feet and focus more energy on capturing customers across APAC instead of the US. 

Vietnam is playing a long game. 

The tariffs will clearly have some impact on Vietnam. However, this must be measured against greater fundamentals. The most recent GDP growth figures topped 7%. Foreign investment is growing. Industrial production is up. Vietnam has a young, tech-savvy and increasingly educated population, which is fuelling a growing consumer class. 

Even if tariffs prove a hurdle over the short term, they’re unlikely to derail Vietnam’s longer-term ambitions. 

Writing credit Craig Martin, Chairman of Dynam Capital