The FTSE 100 was sharply higher on Thursday after Donald Trump made a U-turn on his Greenland threats and adopted a more diplomatic approach. 

Donald Trump is famous for changing his mind and not following through on threats, but that does not make events at Davos yesterday any less dramatic. 

London’s leading index rose 0.7% to trade back above 10,200 after the US President signaled he wouldn’t pursue a military invasion of Greenland, and a framework emerged for the US to be given a small pocket of the country to build military bases. 

This could be seen as a win for all involved, and equity markets cheered the end of short but deeply concerning tensions between the US and some of its closest allies. 

“Donald Trump’s TACO bell has rung once again, much to the joy of financial markets,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. 

“Trump has form in chickening out of his threats, and investors are pleased he confirmed no plans to use military action to take Greenland or to impose new tariffs on parts of Europe.

US markets reacted well to developments overnight, and the improvement in sentiment spilt into the European session. The S&P 500 closed over 1% higher at 6,875.

The FTSE 100’s leaderboard was turned on its head on Thursday when compared to the week’s earlier sessions. Defensive sectors were out of favour, and investors were prepared to take a little more risk with cyclical sectors. 

Falling geopolitical tensions weighed on precious metals, which saw Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo – two stocks that thrive on uncertainty – at the bottom of the leaderboard, with losses of around 2%. Diversified miners Rio Tinto and Antofagasta were also among the losers after a frenetic start to 2026.

Defence stocks BAE Systems and Babcock were down around 1%.

The positive impact of JD Sports’ trading update yesterday continued into a second session with the stock rising to 84p.

St James’s Place was the top riser after analysts at JPMorgan marginally increased their price target on the stock. FTSE 100 banks NatWest, Lloyds, and Barclays played a part in Thursday’s rally with gains between 1.7% and 2.6%.

IMI and Rentokil were among several stocks continued steady uptrends breaking to their highest levels of the year so far.

Inheritance tax receipts reached £6.6 billion in the nine months to December 2025, according to new figures. This represents an increase of £0.2 billion compared with the same period last year.

The data reveal a sharp rise in self-assessment tax payments during December. Collections jumped to £3.1 billion, up 25% year-on-year.

The impact of higher asset prices, including properties and stocks, means more people are being dragged into paying IHT with the threshold frozen.

Although receipts are rising, there are numerous ways to protect estates against IHT, with how much a person pays to HMRC on their death very much in their own hands.

‘Gifts of any value pass out of your estate after seven years – this can make it a good idea to give away assets while you are still alive rather than leaving them in a Will,’ explained Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis, Hargreaves Lansdown.

‘There is also an array of different allowances that enable you to gift assets away immediately. These include the £3,000 annual allowance as well as smaller allowances of £250 for smaller gifts. There are also rules around gifting to loved ones on marriage with gifts to children of £5,000, grandchildren and great grandchildren of £2,500 and £1,000 to anyone else. Such gifts leave your estate for inheritance tax purposes immediately.”

Schemes such as SEIS and EIS can help adventurous investors protect their investments from the tax man.

Meanwhile, capital gains tax receipts fell to £231 million in December, ahead of the usual seasonal peak in January. The drop suggests investors may be holding onto gains rather than realising them.

This behaviour appears linked to recent policy changes. The annual CGT allowance has been reduced, whilst rates on stock and share gains have increased. Both measures seem to be prompting investors to defer disposals.

Analysis for informational purposes only. Capital at risk.

Highlight

• Regulatory Tuition, Not “Crackdown 2.0”: The Trip.com antitrust probe is a delayed normalization of legacy practices, not a return to the 2020–22 era. Trip.com is paying the same “tuition” its peers already settled.
• True Moats Endure: History (Didi, Meituan) shows regulation breaks contractual advantages but is less effective against competitive edges built on infrastructure, product, and service.
• The Real Threat & Opportunity: Price wars are unlikely due to competitor distraction. The real threat is AI-led integration (e.g., Alibaba’s Qwen). The opportunity is the overlooked Skyscanner hedge and Trip.com’s role in Beijing’s “visa-free” agenda.

China’s recent antitrust probe into Trip.com has reawakened investor anxieties around a return to the 2021 regulatory storm.

Our take: this is unlikely to be the start of a new regulatory cycle. Instead, it looks like the closing of the previous one.

The “Class of 2021” (Alibaba, Meituan, Didi) already paid their “regulatory tuition” by removing exclusivity clauses and aligning with state priorities. The Trip.com probe appears more like a late tuition bill than a fresh crackdown.

Protecting SMEs in a Deflationary World

China is currently fighting a deflationary cycle and weak consumer sentiment. In this environment, the priority is to protect small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

The investigation targets two specific “rent-seeking” behaviours:

• Exclusivity (“Pick One of Two”): The practice of forcing hotels to list solely on one platform to maintain traffic dominance.
• Excessive Take-Rates: High commissions and “value-added service fees” that squeeze independent hotel operators who lack bargaining power.

Why Trip.com and not Tencent?

The distinction lies in the business model.

• Tencent: Connects individuals via WeChat and monetises primarily through advertising or self-developed games. It acts as a neutral infrastructure layer, avoiding direct conflict with users.
• Trip.com: It operates as a centralised marketplace that controls and monetises traffic flow. Consequently, merchants often lack pricing power against the platform.

The Regulatory Tuition

Direct Fees: China’s antitrust rules permit fines of 1%–10% of domestic revenue. Previous major cases (Alibaba, Meituan) landed in the 3%–4% range.

Applying a 4% penalty to Trip.com’s domestic revenue implies a one‑time hit of roughly USD 300–350m. Potential financial impact should be manageable given the company’s USD6.7bn net cash position.

Indirect Fees- Recurring Business Practice: Enforcement will probably force changes to Trip.com’s monetisation that depress recurring margins.

For example, ending “pick one of two” clauses would let hotels list simultaneously on Douyin and Meituan, diluting Trip.com’s pricing power. To retain merchants, Trip.com may need to increase merchant incentives such as marketing subsidies or guaranteed-traffic programmes, creating ongoing margin pressure.

On a positive note, Trip.com’s corporate and high‑friction services (B2B travel, visa support, dispute resolution) are less exposed to casual switching, mitigating some medium‑term pressure.

True Moats Endure Regulatory Action

Historical precedent suggests that regulation can break contractual advantages, but it is far less effective against moats built on infrastructure, product, and service.

Alibaba (The False Negative): Fined USD 2.8bn to end exclusivity.

• The Reality: Market share fell from ~70% to ~40% since around 2015, but this downward trend started before the regulatory action.
• The Lesson: It didn’t lose to the intended beneficiary (JD.com), but to cheaper rivals (Pinduoduo/Douyin) due to a consumption downgrade.

Meituan (The Split Verdict): Fined USD 530m.

• The Reality: Lost share in “In-store” deals to Douyin’s video feeds, which were easy to replicate.
• The Lesson: Retained >60% share in food delivery because Douyin could not replicate the “hard infrastructure” of millions of riders.

Didi (The True Positive): Faced the “Ultimate Penalty”—18-month removal from app stores.

• The Reality: Didi retained about 75% market share despite the ban.
• The Lesson: Didi offered an unmatched utility—”getting a car in 3 minutes” via 13 million drivers. Users stuck with the banned app rather than switch to inferior service.

Tencent Music (The Behavioural Correction): Ordered to abandon exclusive music rights in 2021.

• The Reality: The order had minimal impact on TME’s dominance.
• The Lesson: Product stickiness driven by social integration with WeChat, karaoke features, and the high switching cost of rebuilding playlists trumped contract exclusivity.

Competition Shifting from Price War to AI

In our view, the likelihood of a price war after the removal of exclusivity is low.

• Cash constraints and distraction: Meituan and Alibaba are already locked in battles in food delivery and quick commerce, pressuring margins and balance sheets. Launching a full‑scale offensive against Trip.com would lead to further stresses on its profitability and financial position.
• Strategic prioritisation: Both groups are focused on restoring profitability and are less incentivised to start a costly, uncertain new front in online travel right now.

Financially, Douyin can afford to start a price war, but its business model differs from Trip.com’s. Douyin’s travel product focuses on impulse, prepaid vouchers, and short‑form commerce pushed via video. As a result, Douyin is more likely to capture low‑end, price‑sensitive demand than to displace Trip.com in premium or corporate channels.

Having said that, competition is shifting from capital-intensive price wars to technological integration. Alibaba has embedded e-commerce, travel, payments, and other services into its Qwen AI app, creating a one-stop AI interface. Users can complete tasks in natural language, such as itinerary planning, ticket booking, ordering takeout, and shopping, giving Alibaba a new, AI-driven channel to capture traffic.

Strategic Role in Beijing’s “Visa-Free” Agenda

On a positive note, the government has expanded visa-free entry to over 30 countries. In our view, the government does not want to crush the infrastructure required to monetise these high-value visitors.

Major Western platforms, including Booking.com and Expedia face an infrastructure gap in China. They cannot sell standalone high-speed rail tickets or verify “PSB” (Public Security Bureau) licences. Trip.com is the only platform offering the full stack: payments, language, rail, and compliance.

Skyscanner – An Overlooked UK Asset

While the inbound story provides a floor, the outbound story provides the optionality. The most mispriced asset on the balance sheet is Skyscanner, the Edinburgh-based search engine acquired in 2016.

• The Disparity: Skyscanner accounts for over 30% of group traffic but less than 10% of revenue, by our estimates.
• The Model: Currently, Skyscanner operates as a “Metasearch” engine, a lead generation tool that hands users off to airlines for low referral fees. Management has historically kept monetisation low to prioritise market share.
• The Pivot: Should domestic Chinese margins be compressed by regulation, management can turn Skyscanner from Metasearch to OTA (Online Travel Agency). By processing bookings directly, it can significantly increase take-rates.

This article is a “periodical publication” for information only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. This article does not constitute a “personal recommendation” or “investment advice” under UK FCA regulations. Investing in equities involves significant risk. The author holds NO position in the securities mentioned. There is no warranty as to completeness or correctness. Please do your own due diligence or consult a licensed financial adviser. Please read the Full Disclaimer before acting on any information. Images created with the assistance of Gemini AI.

Article provided by Asia Pulse.

Young & Co’s Brewery has delivered exceptional festive trading whilst announcing plans to graduate from AIM to the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market.

The pub operator, which focuses on London and the South of England, saw like-for-like sales surge 11.2% during the three weeks to 5 January 2026. This notably came against particularly strong prior-year comparatives.

Performance over key trading days proved especially robust. Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day saw like-for-likes rise 12.3%. The former City Pub Company estate, acquired by Young’s, delivered standout growth of 26% over Christmas and Boxing Day, reflecting successful integration with Young’s wider proposition.

“We are delighted with the outstanding trading performance in our pubs over the festive period. Once again, this demonstrates the ongoing appeal of our premium, well-invested offer and another amazing contribution from the talented and hard-working team at Young’s,” said Simon Dodd, CEO of Young’s.

“During the six weeks of the festive period, we recorded our highest ever sales in one day, setting multiple daily and weekly records across our estate.”

For the 14-week period ending 5 January, total managed revenue increased 5.6%, with like-for-like growth of 5.7%. This builds on positive momentum reported in November’s interim results. Year-to-date managed revenue like-for-like growth now stands at 5.4%.

Main Market Ambitions

Young’s is also the latest company to signal it is throwing in the towel on AIM. Thankfully, it’s remaining listed and hopes to move to the Main Market.

The company has confirmed its intention to apply to the FCA for admission to the Official List and trading on the Main Market. The move, planned for Q2 2026, would see Young’s AIM listing cancelled.

Management believes the upgrade will enhance the corporate profile and facilitate investment from a broader range of UK and global institutional shareholders. Young’s points to considerable growth in both size and performance in recent years as justification for the move.

The FTSE 100 was battling to keep its head above water on Wednesday as strength in the mining sector, and Burberry, was offset by losses for Experian and financials.

London’s leading index was down 0.1% at the time of writing after gently undulating between losses and gains for most of the session.

“The FTSE 100 held up in early trading on Wednesday despite a rebound in UK inflation and continued uncertainty over Greenland,” says AJ Bell head of markets Dan Coatsworth.

“The hope will be that some form of compromise can be found as Donald Trump meets with European leaders and speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos.”

Slightly hotter than expected inflation data was taken in the market’s stride after wage inflation data released yesterday squashed all hopes of a UK interest rate cut in February.

London also shook off the negativity of the worst session for US stocks overnight since the middle of last year as US investors dumped stocks amid a wider US asset sell-off.

In the UK, miners were among the risers on Wednesday after Rio Tinto buoyed the sector with strong production figures. Rio Tinto was near the top of the leaderboard with gains of 4.8% while Glencore rose 3.6%.

The combination of increasing production and M&A activity makes the mining sector an interesting consideration going into 2026.

Burberry was fighting it out with Rio Tinto for the place at the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard after the luxury brand released a trading statement that reconfirmed the firm’s turnaround with 3% increase in comparable sales during 2025.

“A central pillar of Burberry’s turnaround plan has been a renewed focus on heritage, led by the check scarf, trench coat and the reintroduction of scarf bars in stores,” explained Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge.

“Our experts say this strategy is logical in the near term but comes with clear limits. There is a saturation point for these iconic products, particularly among high value clients, who are unlikely to keep buying multiple check pieces indefinitely.”

Burberry shares were 5% higher at the time of writing.

Financials were among the top fallers on Wednesday, offsetting gains in the mining sector. Lloyds and Barclays were down in the region of 1% – 2%, while ICG Group slipped 2.2% after announcing AUM was almost flat quarter-on-quarter.

Experian was bizarrely the top faller, shedding more than 5%, despite the group reporting strong sales growth across most business units and 12% global revenue growth in the three months ending December 2025.

“With continued strong momentum, our full year expectations are unchanged. We continue to leverage our scaled proprietary data assets, strong technology foundations and deep expertise to deliver on our strategic priorities and crystallise exciting new AI opportunities,” said Brian Cassin, Chief Executive Officer of Experian.

The market reaction to the results seems unjust.

Sovereign Metals has successfully extracted heavy rare earth monazite concentrate from tailings at its Kasiya Rutile-Graphite Project in Malawi.

The discovery adds significant strategic value to the Kasiya project that already holds the world’s largest titanium rutile deposit.

Preliminary analysis confirms exceptionally high levels of critical heavy rare earth elements, with the monazite concentrate averaging 2.9% combined Dysprosium-Terbium (DyTb) and 11.9% Yttrium. Peak concentrations reached 3.9% DyTb and 17.3% Yttrium.

These figures materially exceed those of the world’s five largest rare earth producers, which collectively account for 70% of global output but produce predominantly light rare earths.

“This is an exceptional development that has the potential to fundamentally enhance Kasiya’s strategic significance,” said Managing Director and CEO Frank Eagar.

“With simple processing, our upgraded laboratory has recovered a valuable monazite concentrate product from the rutile tailings stream, with heavy rare earth content that the world’s major producers simply cannot match.”

Sovereign Metals shares surged over 30% on the news but failed to break through to 52-week highs.

Strategic importance

DyTb represents crucial, heavy-magnet rare-earth elements essential for high-temperature permanent magnets used in advanced technologies, defence systems, and precision weapons.

Sovereign said current European prices stand at US$850,000 per tonne for Dysprosium and $3.6 million per tonne for Terbium. We have no indication of the quantity of the rare earths Kasiya holds.

Yttrium has proven critical for aerospace applications, thermal barrier coatings, radar and laser systems, alloy strengthening and semiconductor manufacturing. Highlighting the strategic importance of Yttrium, the US imports 100% of its Yttrium requirements from China.

“These are precisely the elements that matter most to nations seeking to protect and grow their critical mineral supply chains,” Eagar said.

“Dysprosium and terbium enable permanent magnets to function in advanced technologies, including robotics, fighter jets, guided missiles, and naval propulsion systems. Yttrium protects jet engines and hypersonic vehicles from extreme temperatures.”

The timing of this discovery carries geopolitical significance and makes Sovereign Metals all the more attractive.

With China restricting heavy rare-earth exports to Japan and generally weaponising its control over some critical minerals, the US State Department’s visit to Sovereign’s Malawi operations underscores just how important Sovereign Metals could be for the global rare-earth ecosystem.

Rio Tinto shares jumped on Wednesday after the miner announced record fourth-quarter production amid ongoing merger talks with Glencore.

The mining giant achieved an 8% year-on-year increase in copper production, supported by record bauxite output and strong contributions from its lithium operations. 

The company’s Pilbara iron ore operations hit a record in the fourth quarter, with production up 4% and shipments rising 7% compared to the previous year.

Copper production was also a bright spot, climbing 11% year-on-year to exceed the top end of the company’s upgraded guidance range. This was driven primarily by the successful ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, where the underground development project has now been completed.

The lithium division delivered impressive results, with operations in Argentina posting record quarterly production from existing assets.

Strong production numbers are released against a backdrop of Glencore merger talks that could create the world’s largest miner.

 “Rio Tinto’s latest production update was rock solid, but it has been somewhat overshadowed by renewed chatter around a potential mega-merger with Glencore,” said Mark Crouch, market analyst at eToro.

“A deal of that scale would send shockwaves through the global mining sector and leave investors salivating. While a deal remains a long way off, the speculation has reignited interest in a sector already enjoying its strongest performance in years.

“With talk of a commodity supercycle not going away, combined with low energy costs, Rio Tinto may not see conditions this favourable again.”