88 Energy – one of the most significant oil discoveries of recent years?

It is estimated 40% of the entire undiscovered recoverable oil and gas of the United States lies in Northern Alaska with an estimated 30 billion barrels of oil resources waiting to be discovered. Only this year Spanish group, Repsol, discovered 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Horseshoe and Pikka fields in the Northern Alaskan slopes. In addition to recent finds, there is currently a project underway in Alaska which has the possibility to become one of the most significant oil discoveries for a London listed stock in recent years. This project is being led by 88 Energy (LON:88E) who are pushing forward with the Icewine project covering some 690,000 gross acres and in the process, hoping to prove there is 3.6 billion recoverable barrels of oil. Achieving this would be monumental not only for the Alaskan oil industry but for the stakeholders of 88 Energy. The Icewine project is targeting the HRZ shale play which has laid largely untouched since Alaska’s oil boom in the 1970’s and 88 Energy hope to reignite this boom by proving the viability of what would be the second largest field in the area with 3.6 billion boe. Prudhoe Bay To put 88 Energy’s project in context, it is some 35 miles south of the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field, the largest in North America currently operated by BP. Prudhoe Bay current produces around 280,000 barrels of oil per day and account for half of the daily flow through the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). The geographical proximity to such a significant oil field has been a source of excitement since the start of the project – but recent developments have increase the anticipation.
88 Energy
Source: 88 Energy
Icewine The Icewine project commenced in October 2015 with the spud of the Icewine #1 exploration well. The initial results were positive and shares rallied over 500% on indications of ‘permeability super highways’. These highways where confirmed by further analysis revealing permeability numbers 20 times better than pre-drill estimates. Shale formations are loosely packed formations of sedimentary rocks or mudstone that can hold oil and gas. The permeability of these formations dictate how well oil and gas can flow to wells in shale formations and ultimately the rate at which it can extracted. The fact Icewine permeability was increased by such a large degree means the potential for a lucrative flow rate rose dramatically. Results from Icewine #1 also revealed high Total Organic Carbon ‘TOC’ content of 3.55%. These results were very positive when compared to other US shale formations and were a step towards proving the viability of the project.
88 Energy
Source: 88 Energy
Thermal Maturity Sweetspot Further tests were revealed in the Icewine #1 Core Evaluation Update. Many of the 272,000 acres mapped in the evaluation were found to be in Thermal Maturity Sweetspot. The Thermal Maturity Sweetspot refers to areas in shale formations where wet gases meet with oil, enhancing the ability for higher flow rate, key for economic oil production. This was astoundingly good news for the project, adding to positivity created by the analysis of the TOC and permeability. Independent Resource Estimate A review of all the findings culminated in the Independent Resource Estimate for the HRZ formation jumping to 1.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent and the Internal Resource Estimate for HRZ to rising 3.6 billion boe. If this estimate is confirmed, or even increased, it would be the second largest find in North Alaska after Prudhoe Bay’s 15 billion barrels in place. There must be consideration paid to the comparison of the Prudhoe Bay field and Icewine however, as Prudhoe Bay is a conventional oil play and Icewine is almost exclusively unconventional shale formations. Icewine #2 The Icewine #2 drill is now underway and production testing is set for the end of June / early July. At the time of writing, 88 energy had just attempted to cement a 4.5” hole through the Pebble Shale unit sitting beneath the HRZ production interval. The testing and analysis of the Icewine #2 drill could be the catalyst for the next leg higher in shares if the results are as positive as those from Icewine #1.
Source: 88 Energy Investor Presentation Feb 2017
Alaskan Exploration Attractiveness Operated by BP, the Prudhoe Bay field went online in the 1970s and drove the Alaskan oil boom, peaking in the late 1980s at circa 1.5 million barrels of oil per day production. That figure has reduced to around 550,000 barrels per day and with the reduction in oil production, comes a reduction in the Alaskan oil royalty fund revenue. To help maintain royalty payments for years to come, the State of Alaska offers attractive subsidies to firms exploring for oil and gas in the region in return for production royalties. Companies can currently claim 35% of exploration operating costs – making 88 Energy’s project cheaper than other exploration activities in different regions. Financial Position Despite government subsidies, drilling campaigns can be expensive and 88 Energy are in a good financial position to complete the current program. As of 31st December 2016, 88 Energy had $27,303,178 in cash and net assets of $48,010,413. The cash on hand can facilitate Icewine#2 drilling with some to spare. If, however, the firm should need further cash it has a $50m facility with Bank of America it can call on for certain projects at the discretion of Bank of America. Partnerships 88 Energy are operating the exploration in partnership with Burgundy Xploration. 88 Energy agreed a 87.5% working interest, falling to 77.5% on spud of the first well on the project. If 88 energy are to de-risk further reserves there is the possibility of a farmout to fund further development of the field without having to issue equity and dilute existing shareholders.

Goldman Sachs warns of ‘market fragility’ and the potential of flash crashes

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Goldman Sachs have warned that machine trading could exacerbate the next downturn in financial markets if liquidity drys up.
In a piece from GS Economics Research Goldman Sachs analysts said the dynamics of markets could lead to severe volatility in markets due to low liquidity and recent ‘flash crashes’ should be taken as a warning sign.
In early February the VIX volatility index suffered a flash crash ravaging the sellers of volatility who had done very well from the benign market conditions of 2017.
Although the VIX is a measure of US equity volatility, the fallout was felt globally hitting the FTSE 100 the following day as investor fled a potential contagion effect.

Market Fragility

Goldman argued that a period of low market volatility has masked what it calls ‘market fragility’ where volume has been dominated by computerised High Frequency Trading (HFT) that trades mainly on price movements as opposed the underlying value of an asset.
In a situation where this volume from HFT is dramatically reduced, usually in times of uncertainty and volatility, its leaves a highly illiquid market with large bid/offer spreads that can lead to sharp and violent price swings. Goldmans have pointed to a number of examples in recent years where this has happened and has warned this could be a sign of things to come in the next major market downturn.
In February the flash crash was just that, a ‘flash’ downturn that was quickly recovered. The worry analysts at Goldmans have is if these flash crashes are accompanied by sustained negative sentiment the market could find it very hard to regain stability as the main providers of liquidity stay out of the market causing a snowball effect of low liquidity and uncertainty.

Magnolia Petroleum shares plunge after AIM listing reversal

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Shares in Magnolia Petroleum (LON:MAGP) plummeted on Wednesday after the group announced the cancellation of of its admission to the AIM market. The oil and gas exploration company announced the decision to cancel the listing amid a failure to gain sufficient funding. The company said that despite the recent rise in oil prices, it has been finding raising funds increasingly challenging. As a result, Magnolia Petroleum said that in order for the company to maximise its potential, future funding must be generated internally. The directors estimate the administrative cost savings of cancelling the listing to be approximately £100,000 annually, the statement added. The oil and gas firm has interests in over 154 producing properties, primarily in the states of North Dakota, Mississippi and Oklahoma in the United States. However, the company is incorporated in the United Kingdom, with headquarters in Oklahoma, U.S. Back in December, shares in Magnolia rallied after the company revealed IP rates at its Gilchrist well in Oklahoma had significantly surpassed company projections, producing 652 BOPD with 1,178 MCFD or 770 BOEPD with an associated flowing tubing pressure of 120 PSI. Gilchrist is operated by SandRidge Energy. However, Magnolia has acquired a working interest in following its agreement with Western Energy Development LLC (WED). As a result of the latest cancellation announcement, investors will be looking to offload shares given the difficulty in buying and selling shares without an official listing. Shares in the company are currently trading -67.52 percent as of 10.56AM (GMT).  

Dairy Crest shares fall despite strong performance in butter and cheese

Dairy production group Dairy Crest (LON:DCG) shares tumbled nearly 8 percent on Wednesday morning, despite reporting increases in both pre-tax profit and revenue. Adjusted pre-tax profit rose 3 percent over the course of the year to £62.3 million, aided by a 10 percent boost to revenue. Revenue growth was recorded across all parts of the business except the company’s “other” segment, despite ‘unprecedented’ cost inflation in the butters market. Its cheese section did extremely well, with the famous Cathedral City brand recording 6 percent revenue growth and butter revenue up 25 percent. Dairy Crest said in a statement that it was pleased with the progress: “We have delivered a strong performance, broadly maintaining our industry-leading margins against a backdrop of unprecedented cost inflation in the butters market”. However investors were less impressed with the news, leading to a 7.40 percent fall in share price (1000GMT).

Tesco announce surprise closure of website Tesco Direct

Tesco (LON:TSCO) has announced its decision to shut its clothing and homeware site Tesco Direct, after the group admitted it couldn’t see any way of making it profitable. Tesco Direct had been attempting to compete with sites like Argos and Amazon, selling everything from sofas to TVs. The site launched in 2006 but has since failed to keep up in the crowded market, ending in the decision to close down the website on Wednesday. “This decision has been a very difficult one to make, but it is an essential step towards establishing a more sustainable non-food offer and growing our business for the future,” said Charles Wilson, the new boss of Tesco UK. “We want to offer our customers the ability to buy groceries and non-food products in one place and that’s why we are focusing our investment into one online platform.” The surprise move will put 500 jobs at risk, leading to the closure of the distribution centre at Fenny Lock, Milton Keynes, which handles Tesco Direct orders.

Zoopla owner ZPG sees profits rise by a third

Property sales site owner ZPG (LON:ZPG) announced a 31 percent rise in profits on Wednesday, benefitting from a 33 percent boost in sales. ZPG, the owner of Zoopla, Prime Location and Uswitch, saw pre-tax profits hit £29.5 million for the six-month period to March 31, with sales up 33 percent to £156.9 million. Bad weather actually benefitted the company, in contrast to many of the high street groups reporting today, with more consumers turning to Uswitch to search for cheaper energy providers to combat the weather. “Our property division performed well across each vertical, helped by demand for additional products, cross-sell and new contract wins, including the continued return of agents to our portals,” said ZPG’s founder and chief executive Alex Chesterman. “Our comparison division also performed well with leads up across each vertical. Energy had an exceptionally strong first half as a result of ongoing optimisation of the consumer journey and extreme weather during the period, prompting increased switching levels.” ZPG shares are currently up 0.12 percent at489.60 (0935GMT).

IG trading revenue up for 2018, but set to take a hit the year after

Online trading platform IG is expecting net trading revenue for fiscal 2018 to come in higher than the previous year, with other key figures also up on previous guidance. Trading revenue is now expected to be around £565 million, up from £491 million last year. Operating expenses for fiscal 2018 are expected to be around £254 million, with the group’s charge for variable remuneration is expected to be at £36 million, up from £24 million last year. However, the group is likely to suffer a hit from new regulatory measures put in place by the European Securities and Markets Authority, meaning fiscal revenue for 2019 is likely to be lower than for this year. IG also confirmed that Chief Commercial Officer Bridget Messer and Chief Information Officer Jon Noble had been appointed as Executive Directors to the board, taking effect from 1st June 2018.

Restaurant Group hit by Beast from the East

Restaurant Group shares rose 4 percent on Wednesday morning, despite sales falling by 4 percent after poor weather affected footfall. On a reported basis, sales fell 3.1 percent in the 20 weeks to 20 May. Sales improved in the first seven weeks of the second quarter, like-for-like sales declined by just 1.8 percent as the company made moves to entice customers back in. The group, who owns chains including Frankie & Benny’s and Garfunkel’s, said it expects to see further benefit from its strategic initiatives “as the year progresses”. “We expect to deliver results for the full year in-line with current market expectations.” The group blamed weak sales on the Beast from the East and a generally challenging high street climate. Shares in Restaurant Group (LON:RTN) are currently up 3.59 percent at 324.85 (0913GMT).

M&S profits sink again on costly turnaround efforts

Marks & Spencer saw profits sink 62 percent over the year to March, after accelerating its store closure programme and cutting hundreds of jobs. It latest turnaround plan led to a £321.1 million cost hit, with closing stores and revamping existing ones turning out to be a costly business. The group revealed the location of the further 14 stores that are to be closed, on top of the 21 that have already been shut. Performance fell heavily in the fourth quarter due to the effect of “unseasonable weather” in March. The group also said its clothing and homeware ranges were failing to attract young people and families, despite a rise in womenswear sales for the first time in seven years. M&S (LON:MKS) shares are trading slightly up on the news, up 2.91 percent at 300.29 (0904GMT).

Britvic shares up 6pc despite profit fall

Britvic (LON:BVIC) shares rose over 6 percent on Wednesday morning, despite profit after tax for the first half of the year sinking by over 13 percent. Profit fell to £33.3 million during the six month period, after restructuring costs of £21.6 million had a negative impact on results. The company recorded a sales increase of 3.6 percent, up on the same period a year ago, with ARP up 0.5 percent to 57.4 pence. Revenue increased by 4.5 percent to £733.2 million, with adjusted earnings (EBIT) up 9.4 percent to £80.5 million. Adjusted earnings per shares rose 12.2 percent to 21.2 pence. Simon Litherland, Chief Executive Officer, said: “We have delivered a strong first half performance with solid revenue, margin and earnings growth. We have also made good progress in innovating to meet consumer needs, growing our international presence and transforming our supply chain. “While it is too soon to guide on the ongoing consumer impact of the soft drinks levy, early indications of the competitor and customer response are broadly as we anticipated. We have exciting commercial plans in place for the second half and I remain confident of continuing to make progress this year”. Shares in Britvic are currently trading up 6.13 percent at 805.00 (0851GMT).