Should the United Kingdom decide to leave the European Union in this Thursday’s referendum many skilled professionals may leave the UK in flight of the uncertain economic future and in search of better job opportunities. As Stephen Hawkins has announced in his statement about Brexit, the UK stands to lose important research funding if it chooses to exit the EU. Therefore, it will likely experience a decrease in scientific research and innovative progress, going hand in hand with the reduced inflow of EU and international university students and the loss of employment opportunities for high skilled professionals. However, an interesting question to ask then is: ‘Where will those skilled professionals go?’. The growing economies of Asia present viable choices for many skilled labourers to make a comfortable living. Especially China and India, countries which until quite recently were considered to face the issues of Brain Drain as high-skilled workers were leaving these countries to work in Western developed nations, have in the past years started to reverse this process. As their economies become more prosperous, technological progress opens up plenty of opportunities for employment of the highly-skilled. Many professionals who formerly chose to leave their home behind are deciding to return and this process is likely to be sped up should Britain face economic hardship following a Brexit. As the UK currently has one of the largest group of Chinese living abroad in Europe, with nearly half a million people, and Indians present the UK’s largest foreign born minority population since 2015 with 1.5 million, an increasing outflow of skilled-professionals from these backgrounds will be perceptible and likely painful. Equally, British born professionals may decide to immigrate to these and other Asian nations such as Singapore, which are lacking high-skilled workers to further their economic and technological progress. Earlier this year it was published that the four Asian nations of South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong are continuing to outperform other countries in national education system rankings, while China has continuously shown the greatest improvements in their higher education rating. These facts may draw academic professionals and university students to resettle to Asian countries. Lastly, there are the usual destinations for skilled workers, which are likely to see increasing requests from the UK, should emigration increase due to a Brexit vote. The most popular destinations for UK emigrants are Australia and the US, but Germany, France, Canada and the Scandinavian countries could also be feasible choices as more professionals decide to leave the country.

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To get more information on the upcoming referendum and its’ possible effects read our features on:

Supporters line-up for ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’

Schedule for the vote count night

Markets beyond the EU referendum

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3 stocks to buy if UK decides to remain

3 stocks to buy if UK decides to leave

It is consistently argued that Britain contributes more to the EU budget then it receives. Yet a large factor of income the UK receives from the EU is research funding. Of the two major routes by which the EU directly funds research into the UK, Britain is most successful in attracting Framework Programme funding aimed particularly at excellence such as higher education taking in as much as 71% of total funds. The current Framework Programme is called Horizon 2020 which is managed by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation. Horizon 2020 has a budget of $74.8 billion for the period 2014-2020. In 2015 the UK received £967 million in research grants findings from the EU. Over the past decade EU funding to the UK as a whole is £8.04 billion. A report produced by The Royal Society noted that the UK was the second largest recipient of the programme behind Germany who gained a total of £8.34 billion EU funded research seeks to work collaboratively bringing together expertise from different sectors and countries to share knowledge and expand networks. Universities UK argued that there are 125,000 EU students at British Universities generating more than £2.2bn for the economy creating over 20,000 jobs. They claim that the research provided by the EU is worth £1bn a year meaning a Brexit vote would substantially hinder this. Leading leave campaigners have argued that a Brexit vote would not reduce the number of EU students from applying to British Universities. Yet they claim that if the numbers were to decrease, the increase in international fees could help fund gaps in the education sector. 13 UK universities are ranked among the top 25 European Universities with Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial College and UCL securing the top 4 spots. The EU accounted for one-fifth of all public funding to research bodies used by Cambridge and Oxford Universities and it is heavily feared that a breakaway from the EU would damage funding made into Science. A Brexit survey revealed that a total of 83% of British scientists oppose Brexit with the Royal Society calling the move a disaster for British Science as the possible risk of increase in international rates and the lack of free movement within the EU will mean it would stop young scientists from migrating freely within Europe. British Laboratories and research projects rely on a quarter of public research funds. The fear is that a Brexit vote would mean that British research risks being pulled out of the field.

Read more on where UK professionals may go if Britain loses research funding and innovative edge

 

For more information on the upcoming EU Referendum read our features on:

Supporters line-up for ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’

Schedule for the vote count night

Gain some investment insight with guides on:

3 stocks to buy if the UK decides to remain

3 stocks to buy if the UK decides to leave

Such is the focus of mainstream media of late, you will be forgiven for thinking that the economy or markets do not have a future beyond the 23^rd June. This, of course, isn’t the case. As the UK has voted to leave the EU, we will hear of nothing else for the foreseeable future. However, before too long the market will divert its focus to number of pressing matters that have been quietly stewing in the background in the last 3 months. US Rates Real concern will emanate from the US and whether the Federal reserve are going to hike rates at a time when the market is not completely prepared for a tightening, causing another stock market rout. One would hope they have learnt their lesson from Decembers hike but you would be foolish to put it past Yellen and her fellow central bankers. An event that would justify the continued hold of rates is the upcoming US general election in November which promises as much debate, mudslinging and name calling as the EU referendum campaigns. Raising rates before November will put investors on the edge of their seats and could cause sharp shocks in the market. However, as the Federal Reserve have said on numerous occasions, data supports such a move, you should be prepared for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. European Economy It is likely the market’s attention will turn quickly back to the Eurozone which, in the midst of unprecedented stimulus from the ECB, is still teasing investors who are betting on a continued economic recovery in the bloc. Unemployment in the region has fallen over the past year to 10.2% as manufacturing activity remains in expansion territory and wages grow at a steady pace. You could argue that much of this improvement is the consequence of the ECB’s package and if it were to be removed, it could lead to a quick unwinding of asset price appreciation due to the lack of policy action from European governments. The improvement in the European economy may well be a superficial product of the printing presses but the sheer quantity of assets and extended period of the program will undoubtedly provide the resources necessary to keep the Eurozone economy relatively buoyant for the coming 12 months at least. Beyond this point, the governments of the Eurozone will be under pressure to enact reforms and take the reins from Mario Draghi and take the lead driving economic growth. Chinese Growth China is developing into something of an enigma for investors who are battling to draw any conclusions from the mixed economic indicators coming from the world’s second largest economy. On one hand, the rate of growth is slowing and on the other hand, the economy is in a phase of recalibration. This difference in interpretation will be the subject of much analysis throughout the second half of the year. For years the world relied on China’s demand for natural resources to prop up global activity and as this demand slows and China becomes a more consumer orientated economy, the markets is fretting over which narrative they should believe; the ‘hard landing’ doomsday scenario or the maturity of China into a ‘developed economy’. Common thinking on China will be driven a number of indicators with special emphasis being put on manufacturing data, commodity demand and house prices. Any persistent deterioration in these readings will likely lead to market volatility experienced last year.

10 p.m.

Voting ends. Ballot boxes will be transported to 382 local centres for the count. The local turnout will be recorded and announced before the counting of votes begins.

12 a.m.

1^st results due. The votes from the Isle of Scilly and Gibraltar should become public now. However, due to the small number of voters in these areas (in total only about 35,000 of the 65 million large UK population) this information may not be very useful to predict the overall outcome of the referendum.

12.30 a.m.

1^st mainland results due. Results will be coming in from Sunderland and Newcastle. These areas will include a total population of about 600,000. In both areas we can expect close results as suggested by national polls with ‘Leave’ being expected to take a small lead. Should we instead observe ‘Remain’ to be in the lead, this will be a first indicator for a possible nationwide win.

12.45 a.m.

City of London results are due to provide further insight. It is the area considered to be Britain’s most pro-Europe district and will therefore likely add more votes to ‘Remain’. It is however the second-smallest area with less than 7,000 voters and therefore not very representative of Britain as a whole. Further results will come in from areas, such as Swindon, which are considered to be Euro-sceptic.

1 a.m.

Tokyo stock exchange opens. While more results from small areas flow in Japan’s major stock exchange opens for trading.

1.30 a.m.

Speeding up the flow of results. Basildon, Essex and Hartlepool are areas considered to be likely voting to leave the European Union, while Stockport is expected to vote to remain. Salford and the first Welsh area to vote, Merthyr Tydfil, could be the first swing areas for which predictions are unclear. The Western Isles will be the first Scottish areas to provide results, with Scotland being generally consideredas mainly pro-European.

2 a.m.

40 areas should be recorded by now. Most notably the first London Borough votes are due to come in, with Wandsworth and Westminster being very likely to have ‘Remain’ in the lead. The Welsh areas of while Denbighshire and Wrexham as well as the Hampshire area of Hart are likely swing areas which are due to present their results.

2.30 a.m.

One of biggest leads for ‘Leave’ expected. With the results from Caste Point in Essex, the area holding place Four on Chris Hanretty’s pro-Brexit ranking, large wins for the ‘Leave’ campaign will be expected atthis time. However, Lambeth in South London and Oxford are due to present results as well and are under the 10 most likely areas to favour ‘Remain’ greatly.

3 a.m.

140 of 382 voting areas should be declared. While Thanet is most likely to favour ‘Leave’ and Islington is strongly suspected of favouring ‘Remain’, other areas such as Chesterfield and Durham are looking to be very close.

3.30 a.m.

More than half of results are in now. The pro-European area of Edinburgh, which is also the 8^th largest area by population is due to provide results. Additionally, Cambridge is likely to add votes to ‘Remain’.

4 a.m.

Close to 100 more counts expected. The two single-biggest areas of Northern Ireland and Birmingham with a combined population of 2.9 million are scheduled to complete and publish counts.

5 a.m.

Further big cities announce results. Glasgow, Manchester and Liverpool with a total of 1.5 million inhabitants between them. Glasgow, as the third biggest area is considered to be one of the biggest ‘Remain’ strongholds and Manchester as well as Glasgow are considered as slightly pro-European. Unless votes remain incredibly close, the bigger picture should become clear around this time.

6 a.m.

Leeds and Bristol hand in last big city votes. Considered to be very pro-Brexit, Cornwall’s results are also due to come in at this time.

6.03 a.m.

Pre-open trading hours of UK Gilts begins on the ICE exchange.

7 a.m.

Last results in. The last three results from Arun, Waveney and Harborough should conclude the counting. The total population of those last missing areas only amounts to around 350,000. Once all votes are in the Chief Counting Officer Jenny Watson will formally announce the national results broadcasting live from Manchester.

8 a.m.

Major European Stock exchanges open.   Also view our Feature on the ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ supporters line-up Gain some investment insight with guides on: 3 stocks to buy if the UK decides to remain 3 stocks to buy if UK decides to to leave

As the day of the Brexit vote moves closer, more and more personalities in the public eye have voiced their view on which way Britain should vote on Thursday. Politicians, economists, celebrities have made their arguments as to why they think Britain will be better off in or out of the European Union. Cabinet ministers favour ‘Remain’ by 23 to 7. Most notable leading UK politicians in support of European Union membership are Prime Minister David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne, Foreign Secretary Phillip Hammond and Home Secretary Theresa May. While the ‘Leave’ campaign is supported by former London Mayor Boris Johnson, Justice Secretary Michael Gove, Commons Leader Chris Grayling and UKIP Leader Nigel Farage. Major economists also gave their input. The governor of the Bank of England has warned of an economic downturn if Britain votes to leave the European Union. His view has been joined by the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde who cautioned the likely worsening conditions for investment. Last weekend the Guardian also received an open letter from 10 Nobel Prize winning economists concerned about the economic consequences of a possible Brexit and urging the British people to vote for ‘Remain’. An 11^th Nobel Prize winner, the American economist Paul Krugman, addressed the issue in his own blog in the New York Times in late April with a similar opinion. As the ‘Remain’ campaign keeps rallying up its academic backers and quotes on their webpage that “9 out of 10 economists say leaving Europe will damage the British economy”, the ‘Leave’ campaign found a group of economists to actively back their cause as well. The group ‘Economists for Brexit’ comprises eight British economists, including former Chief Economic Advisor to Boris Johnson, Dr. Gerard Lyons, and Global macro-strategist at VTB Capital in London, Neil Mackinnon. World leaders and politicians from countries around the world have also voiced their opinion. US President Barrack Obama, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbell and New Zealand Prime Minister John Key have appealed to the British people to vote Remain. US Presidential Candidate Donald Trump and President of the French National Front Marine Le Pen argued that Britain could do well for itself outside of the European Union. Celebrities which have given their view on the debate most notably include Idris Elba, Keira Knightley, Benedict Cumberbatch, Mick Hucknall, Jeremy Clarkson, Lord Alan Sugar, Eddie Izzard and Emma Thompson on the ‘Remain’ side. Scientist and researcher Stephen Hawkins also issued a statement to the British people declaring that a Brexit would be devastating for Scientific research and innovation in Britain due to the loss of EU university funding. The ‘Leave’ campaign is backed by personalities such as Elizabeth Hurley, Joan Collins, Jullian Fellowes, Sol Campbell, Roger Dultrey, Vicky Pattinson, Sir Michael Caine and Duncan Bannatyne.