Iran reaches deal with six world powers

Iran and six major world powers have reached an agreement after more than ten years of negotiations, after round-the-clock talks in Vienna. Under the deal, sanctions imposed by the P5+1 – the US, UK, France, China and Russia plus Germany – will be lifted in return for Iran agreeing long-term curbs on a nuclear programme that the West fear was aimed at creating a nuclear bomb. The deal is hailed as major victory for both U.S. President Barack Obama and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, who was elected two years ago after a vow to reduce the diplomatic isolation of Iran. Although the deal has not yet been formally released, ccording to Reuters key parts of the deal include:
  • Iran has accepted that sanctions could be restored in 65 days if it violates the deal
  • UN arms embargo and missile sanctions would remain in place for five and eight years respectively
  • UN inspectors allowed to monitor Iranian military sites – however, they will be allowed to challenge access
Obama still needs to pass the deal through congress within 60 days; however, it is possible for him to use his veto to overrule the rejection. Rumours that a deal was about to be reached have had a dramatic impact on oil prices over the past couple of days, and after news that an agreement had been finalised this morning oil prices fell more than a dollar. The prospect of a deal has already helped push down global oil prices for the last few weeks; lifting the sanctions in place against Iran will increase the supply of Iranian oil on the market. “Even with a historic deal, oil from Iran will take time to return, and will not be before next year, most likely the second half of 2016,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at London-based consultancy Energy Aspects, told Reuters. “But given how oversupplied the market is with Saudi output at record highs, the mere prospect of new oil will be bearish for sentiment.”    

UK inflation falls to 0%

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The rate of UK Consumer Price Index inflation fell to 0% in June, from 0.1% in May, according to official figures released today. A drop in clothing and food prices were the main contributors to the change, the Office for National Statistics said. However, low oil prices have also contributed to a consistently low rate of inflation over the past few months. Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said he expects inflation to remain low in the short term. Usually, the rate of inflation is kept between 1% – 2%.

Chris Taylor grows Neptune Japan Opportunities Fund

Led by fund manager Chris Taylor, Neptune Japan Opportunities Fund’s objective is to generate consistent capital growth by investing predominantly in a concentrated portfolio of Japanese securities. Monetary easing, increased public spending and reforms to increase competitiveness are three initiatives that are helping Japanese PM Shinzo Abe get Japan’s economy back on track. The so-called ‘Abenomics’ consists of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and economic growth strategies to encourage private investment; and is working to create a much more positive environment for Japanese companies to thrive. The fund is managed by Chris Taylor, who utilises global industry sector research from the entire Neptune investment team. Before managing this fund, he moved from Head of Scandinavian Equities at Enskilda Securities to Global Equity Fund Manager for Swiss American Asset Management in New York. The fund’s largest holding is Toyota Motor, making up 4.33%, followed by Fanuc and Nintendo. By sector, the fund is made up of largely industrials, at 32%, followed by basic materials and technology. Morningstar rates the fund as high risk, with the returns being relatively hard to predict over the last few years; in 2013 the annual return on the fund was 50%, but in 2014 it dropped to 4.39%. However, the value of the fund has risen steadily since November and could well be set to continue.  

East London pie shop Square Pie offers investment opportunity

Ever been so frustrated that you can’t find a decent pie that you decided to start selling your own? That’s what Martin Dewey did, the creator of East London-based Square Pie, and it seems to have paid off. His business started from a small stall in Spitalfields Market, which opened in November 2001 and sold a grand total of seven pies on their first day of trading. Now, Square Pie has six London outlets, with a seventh opening in Birmingham later this year, has won several food awards, and supplies to Twickenham Stadium, Glastonbury and Ocado. Dewey is now hoping to raise £750,000 for Square Pie on crowdfunding platform Crowdcube in order to open further restaurants, and invest in PR and marketing to grow awareness of the brand. The Square Pie Bond offers an 8% interest rate for an initial investment of £500 or more, over the course of four years. The original investment will be returned when the bond matures. The company is still run by Dewey and his wife, Lucy. The husband and wife team is backed up by Chief Executive Nabil Subuh, who joined in January 2015 after 25 years in hospitality, and Finance Director Robert Scott, who was formerly CFO at Thomson’s Online. In 2014, Square Pie’s turnover was £2.6 million, with company sales up 34% this financial year. Whilst profits have been impacted recently due to the initial costs of opening several venues, the financial projections look solid. If this opportunity is something that interests you, head over to Crowdcube.com for further information on how to get involved.

Metlife muscles in on crowdfunding trend

Metlife UK, the insurance and investment giant, has announced that it is working with non-profit crowdfunding platform Kiva. Their new initiative, which is open to employees across Europe, Middle East and Africa, allows Metlife staff to direct a loan as small as £16 to a range of projects including businesses and entrepreneurs, and people funding education. It has been pioneered by Metlife’s charity, the Metlife Foundation, which is committed to building financial inclusion. Kiva is a microfinance crowdfunding platform that aims to tackle poverty and create opportunities for those in countries where the necessary loans are hard to come by. Kiva arranges loans for those in need, which are then distributed through microfinance institutions in the borrower’s country with a repayment rate of 98 per cent.

Premal Shah, Kiva’s president and co-founder said: “Metlife was founded on a simple and powerful insight, that everyone needs access to the right financial tools to pursue more from life.

“We are proud to be a part of Metlife’s efforts toward that vision. Through this partnership, they are backing the dreams of thousands of entrepreneurs around the world, expanding financial access and empowering their employees to take part directly in that mission.”

Many financial institutions have similar charitable schemes, such as Deutsche Bank’s Small Grants Fund, however Metlife is the first to undertake one through crowdfunding.  

Small breweries turn to crowdfunding

When Hertfordshire based Red Squirrel Brewery decided to look for further investment in its craft beer brewing company, there was one clear way to go; like many other small businesses, crowdfunding was the most viable option. They are forecasted to grow by over 111% this financial year, hitting revenues of around £1 million. With a bit of investment from the public, they are hoping to further expand their Brewery Shop & Tasting Bar concept targeting in the main provincial towns in the South East as well opening its first Microbrew Bar in Europe. However, Red Squirrel are not the first brewing company to see crowdfunding as a viable alternative form of finance. They are following in the footsteps of successful crowdfunders BrewDog, who launched Britain’s biggest crowdfunding project ever in April, hoping to raise £25m. James Watt, BrewDog’s co-founder, said: “We are not the Rockefellers. We are Guy Fawkes. This is about changing small business finance for ever. “By making profit king, the financial institutions of the City gave rise to the bastardisation and commoditisation of beer. We are burning the established system down to the ground and forging a new future for business from the flames.” However interestingly, instead of using a traditional crowdfunding platform such as Crowdcube, they chose to launch their own site, “Equity for Punks”. Similarly, the UK’s fastest growing craft beer club, Beer52, has raised £100k from the crowd to grow their online community to 10,000 members in 2014. Beer52 is an early stage startup, launched just three months ago, and is already the UK’s largest and fastest growing craft beer club with more than 2,500 paying subscribers – for £24 a month they send you a mixed case of eight craft beers. According to the Campaign for Real Ale, the number of breweries in Britain in 2014 hit a 70-year high of 1,147 as growth in micro-breweries continues apace. Living in London, it’s increasingly clear that independent breweries are on the rise; in South London, I live opposite two small breweries who have opened in the last few years. It appears that, instead of loans from banks, crowdfunding from their existing customer base, who like their product and would like a part in seeing them thrive, is the best form of finance. If investing in independent breweries is something that interests you, Scottish brewery Innis & Gunn have launched a beer bond that is available to invest in until the 16th July. They offer 1.5% interest pa. in cash, or 9% interest in store credit to spend on their beer. Over in the US, crowdfunding playform CrowdBrewed has been created purely for small breweries to ascertain funding; it’s surely only a matter of time before the same happens here.  

Changes to climate change levy hits renewable investment funds

George Osborne’s recent decision to force renewable energy generators to pay the climate change levy has been a strong blow to wind and solar power investment funds. Last week shares in Drax Group, who operate Britain’s largest power station are are leading the way in using sustainable biomass as a form of renewable power, fell 25% after the announcement. Previously, renewable energy generators had levy exemption certificates, meaning they did not have to pay the climate change levy. Introduced in 2001, the tax on energy delivered to non-domestic users was an incentive to increase energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. Renewables have never had to pay this tax; however, after last week’s Budget, they are no longer exempt. It is calculated this will raise around £450 million for the government. Unsurprisingly, funds investing in renewable energy have also been hit by this change. The £353 million Renewables Infrastructure Group, which invests in both wind and solar plants, is the worst affected, revealing its net asset value per share would fall 4p to 97.9p. Similarly, the £287m Foresight Solar Fund, revealed a 3% reduction in NAV but maintained its dividend target of 6.08p per share for this year, which supports a 5.9% yield. However, the £662m GCP Infrastructure Investments fund, which invests in the subordinated bonds of renewable operators rather than their equity, reassured investors that its projects’ were ‘wholly unaffected’ by the government’s move. The abolition of the exemption shows the risks associated with investing in a relatively new and turbulent sector; however, the industry is supported by the fact that the UK still has a long way to go in tackling climate change before it meets its 2020 climate change targets.  

Greece: details of the deal

Details of the deal negotiated with Greece have just been released in a full statement by the EU. The key parts are as follows:
  • €50bn asset fund will be formed; Greece will have to transfer assets that will then be privatised under European supervision. It will be managed by Greeks.
  • The VAT system will be streamlines and the tax base widened, to increase revenue
  • Upfront measures will be brought in to improve long-term sustainability of the pension system, as part of a comprehensive pension reform programme.
  • Alexis Tsipras also managed to get debt restructuring into the deal, a key point that he aimed to see into the agreement.
  • Greece will have to bring in Sunday trading hours, as part of reforms designed to boost the economy.
Esentially, the deal reached is a “drastic austerity program”, perhaps worse than that offered before the Greek referendum. The country that has already seen years of tough austerity measures, and its population voted against them just last weekend. Unsurprisingly, the Greek people are unhappy with the deal, arguing that Tsipras circumvented democracy by agreeing to a proposal the people wholeheartedly disagreed with. Syriza’s UK spokesperson, London based academic Marina Prentoulis has given this reaction to the deal: “We have ten thousand people committing suicide for economic problems; we have 60% of the young people unemployed, 27% of the overall population unemployed, the debt growing and the Greek economy being reduced by one fourth. “Now, with these measures, I’m really worried what will happen. It has been clear that for political reasons they have been pressured into a very difficult deal and across Europe, what everybody says is that we’re talking about a coup.” However, the deal is not set in stone yet; all key parts of the deal must still be passed through the Greek parliament before they can be put into effect.  

Oil prices drop after rumours of deal with Iran

Oil prices dropped this morning after news that Iran is reportedly on the brink of reaching a deal with six world powers that would end sanctions on the Islamic Republic, and allow more Iranian oil into the world markets. Six world powers have been in talks with Tehran for months, in order to reach a nuclear deal and lift sanctions against the country. The sanctions have seriously affected the Iranian economy, which can recover only with greatly increased oil and gas exports. A senior Iranian negotiator said a nuclear deal would be completed but cautioned that there was work to be done and he could not promise the talks would finish on Monday or Tuesday. “I cannot promise whether the remaining issues can be resolved tonight or tomorrow night,” Iran’s Tasnim news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi as saying. Brent crude for August fell $1.89 to a low of $56.84 a barrel before rallying back to around $57.30 by 4.40 a.m. EDT. U.S. light crude, also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was down $1.15 at $51.59 a barrel. A positive outcome from the Greek talks helped temper the early losses. Brent Crude is currently trading at $58.73, and WTI Crude at $52.74. .    

Bank of England survey shows demand for mortgages will continue to rise

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Last quarter’s increased demand for mortgages is expected to remain solid, according to a survey by the Bank of England released this morning. Stricter controls decreased mortgage lending over the past year, however banks reported the strongest demand for mortgages since 2013 in the second quarter. The central bank’s quarterly Credit Conditions Survey also showed demand for loans from small and big businesses increased and was expected to continue to rise. The survey also showed that corporate lending has changed little over the past three months, whereas demand for lending for small businesses has hit its highest level for a year.