Such is the focus of mainstream media of late, you will be forgiven for thinking that the economy or markets do not have a future beyond the 23^rd June. This, of course, isn’t the case. As the UK has voted to leave the EU, we will hear of nothing else for the foreseeable future. However, before too long the market will divert its focus to number of pressing matters that have been quietly stewing in the background in the last 3 months. US Rates Real concern will emanate from the US and whether the Federal reserve are going to hike rates at a time when the market is not completely prepared for a tightening, causing another stock market rout. One would hope they have learnt their lesson from Decembers hike but you would be foolish to put it past Yellen and her fellow central bankers. An event that would justify the continued hold of rates is the upcoming US general election in November which promises as much debate, mudslinging and name calling as the EU referendum campaigns. Raising rates before November will put investors on the edge of their seats and could cause sharp shocks in the market. However, as the Federal Reserve have said on numerous occasions, data supports such a move, you should be prepared for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. European Economy It is likely the market’s attention will turn quickly back to the Eurozone which, in the midst of unprecedented stimulus from the ECB, is still teasing investors who are betting on a continued economic recovery in the bloc. Unemployment in the region has fallen over the past year to 10.2% as manufacturing activity remains in expansion territory and wages grow at a steady pace. You could argue that much of this improvement is the consequence of the ECB’s package and if it were to be removed, it could lead to a quick unwinding of asset price appreciation due to the lack of policy action from European governments. The improvement in the European economy may well be a superficial product of the printing presses but the sheer quantity of assets and extended period of the program will undoubtedly provide the resources necessary to keep the Eurozone economy relatively buoyant for the coming 12 months at least. Beyond this point, the governments of the Eurozone will be under pressure to enact reforms and take the reins from Mario Draghi and take the lead driving economic growth. Chinese Growth China is developing into something of an enigma for investors who are battling to draw any conclusions from the mixed economic indicators coming from the world’s second largest economy. On one hand, the rate of growth is slowing and on the other hand, the economy is in a phase of recalibration. This difference in interpretation will be the subject of much analysis throughout the second half of the year. For years the world relied on China’s demand for natural resources to prop up global activity and as this demand slows and China becomes a more consumer orientated economy, the markets is fretting over which narrative they should believe; the ‘hard landing’ doomsday scenario or the maturity of China into a ‘developed economy’. Common thinking on China will be driven a number of indicators with special emphasis being put on manufacturing data, commodity demand and house prices. Any persistent deterioration in these readings will likely lead to market volatility experienced last year.

10 p.m.

Voting ends. Ballot boxes will be transported to 382 local centres for the count. The local turnout will be recorded and announced before the counting of votes begins.

12 a.m.

1^st results due. The votes from the Isle of Scilly and Gibraltar should become public now. However, due to the small number of voters in these areas (in total only about 35,000 of the 65 million large UK population) this information may not be very useful to predict the overall outcome of the referendum.

12.30 a.m.

1^st mainland results due. Results will be coming in from Sunderland and Newcastle. These areas will include a total population of about 600,000. In both areas we can expect close results as suggested by national polls with ‘Leave’ being expected to take a small lead. Should we instead observe ‘Remain’ to be in the lead, this will be a first indicator for a possible nationwide win.

12.45 a.m.

City of London results are due to provide further insight. It is the area considered to be Britain’s most pro-Europe district and will therefore likely add more votes to ‘Remain’. It is however the second-smallest area with less than 7,000 voters and therefore not very representative of Britain as a whole. Further results will come in from areas, such as Swindon, which are considered to be Euro-sceptic.

1 a.m.

Tokyo stock exchange opens. While more results from small areas flow in Japan’s major stock exchange opens for trading.

1.30 a.m.

Speeding up the flow of results. Basildon, Essex and Hartlepool are areas considered to be likely voting to leave the European Union, while Stockport is expected to vote to remain. Salford and the first Welsh area to vote, Merthyr Tydfil, could be the first swing areas for which predictions are unclear. The Western Isles will be the first Scottish areas to provide results, with Scotland being generally consideredas mainly pro-European.

2 a.m.

40 areas should be recorded by now. Most notably the first London Borough votes are due to come in, with Wandsworth and Westminster being very likely to have ‘Remain’ in the lead. The Welsh areas of while Denbighshire and Wrexham as well as the Hampshire area of Hart are likely swing areas which are due to present their results.

2.30 a.m.

One of biggest leads for ‘Leave’ expected. With the results from Caste Point in Essex, the area holding place Four on Chris Hanretty’s pro-Brexit ranking, large wins for the ‘Leave’ campaign will be expected atthis time. However, Lambeth in South London and Oxford are due to present results as well and are under the 10 most likely areas to favour ‘Remain’ greatly.

3 a.m.

140 of 382 voting areas should be declared. While Thanet is most likely to favour ‘Leave’ and Islington is strongly suspected of favouring ‘Remain’, other areas such as Chesterfield and Durham are looking to be very close.

3.30 a.m.

More than half of results are in now. The pro-European area of Edinburgh, which is also the 8^th largest area by population is due to provide results. Additionally, Cambridge is likely to add votes to ‘Remain’.

4 a.m.

Close to 100 more counts expected. The two single-biggest areas of Northern Ireland and Birmingham with a combined population of 2.9 million are scheduled to complete and publish counts.

5 a.m.

Further big cities announce results. Glasgow, Manchester and Liverpool with a total of 1.5 million inhabitants between them. Glasgow, as the third biggest area is considered to be one of the biggest ‘Remain’ strongholds and Manchester as well as Glasgow are considered as slightly pro-European. Unless votes remain incredibly close, the bigger picture should become clear around this time.

6 a.m.

Leeds and Bristol hand in last big city votes. Considered to be very pro-Brexit, Cornwall’s results are also due to come in at this time.

6.03 a.m.

Pre-open trading hours of UK Gilts begins on the ICE exchange.

7 a.m.

Last results in. The last three results from Arun, Waveney and Harborough should conclude the counting. The total population of those last missing areas only amounts to around 350,000. Once all votes are in the Chief Counting Officer Jenny Watson will formally announce the national results broadcasting live from Manchester.

8 a.m.

Major European Stock exchanges open.   Also view our Feature on the ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ supporters line-up Gain some investment insight with guides on: 3 stocks to buy if the UK decides to remain 3 stocks to buy if UK decides to to leave

As the day of the Brexit vote moves closer, more and more personalities in the public eye have voiced their view on which way Britain should vote on Thursday. Politicians, economists, celebrities have made their arguments as to why they think Britain will be better off in or out of the European Union. Cabinet ministers favour ‘Remain’ by 23 to 7. Most notable leading UK politicians in support of European Union membership are Prime Minister David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne, Foreign Secretary Phillip Hammond and Home Secretary Theresa May. While the ‘Leave’ campaign is supported by former London Mayor Boris Johnson, Justice Secretary Michael Gove, Commons Leader Chris Grayling and UKIP Leader Nigel Farage. Major economists also gave their input. The governor of the Bank of England has warned of an economic downturn if Britain votes to leave the European Union. His view has been joined by the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde who cautioned the likely worsening conditions for investment. Last weekend the Guardian also received an open letter from 10 Nobel Prize winning economists concerned about the economic consequences of a possible Brexit and urging the British people to vote for ‘Remain’. An 11^th Nobel Prize winner, the American economist Paul Krugman, addressed the issue in his own blog in the New York Times in late April with a similar opinion. As the ‘Remain’ campaign keeps rallying up its academic backers and quotes on their webpage that “9 out of 10 economists say leaving Europe will damage the British economy”, the ‘Leave’ campaign found a group of economists to actively back their cause as well. The group ‘Economists for Brexit’ comprises eight British economists, including former Chief Economic Advisor to Boris Johnson, Dr. Gerard Lyons, and Global macro-strategist at VTB Capital in London, Neil Mackinnon. World leaders and politicians from countries around the world have also voiced their opinion. US President Barrack Obama, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbell and New Zealand Prime Minister John Key have appealed to the British people to vote Remain. US Presidential Candidate Donald Trump and President of the French National Front Marine Le Pen argued that Britain could do well for itself outside of the European Union. Celebrities which have given their view on the debate most notably include Idris Elba, Keira Knightley, Benedict Cumberbatch, Mick Hucknall, Jeremy Clarkson, Lord Alan Sugar, Eddie Izzard and Emma Thompson on the ‘Remain’ side. Scientist and researcher Stephen Hawkins also issued a statement to the British people declaring that a Brexit would be devastating for Scientific research and innovation in Britain due to the loss of EU university funding. The ‘Leave’ campaign is backed by personalities such as Elizabeth Hurley, Joan Collins, Jullian Fellowes, Sol Campbell, Roger Dultrey, Vicky Pattinson, Sir Michael Caine and Duncan Bannatyne.

With just a week to go until the EU referendum, the Leave campaign appears to have taken a steady lead in the polls. Why? One word: immigration. Polly Toynbee illustrated the feelings of some Londoners in her article for the Guardian on Monday. At a surgery held by Barking MP Margaret Hodge, her constituents made it clear that Leave was the only way they would vote – based almost solely on immigration. One said: “When I get out at the station, I think I’m in another country.” These sentiments are amplified by the right wing media running headlines such as “Fury over plot to let 1.5m Turks into Britain” – meaning that the entire referendum rests on the shoulders of Britain’s border policy. But amongst all the rhetoric, and two-ing and fro-ing, and the fighting between Bob Geldof and Nigel Farage on flotillas on the Thames, its easy to forget the facts; which show that, on the contrary, migrants contribute far more to the UK economy than they cost in benefits. 1) “Migrants are a drain on our economy” Germany, who took almost double the amount of migrants from EU member states in 2014, have benefitted from a boost to their economy; an influx of foreign workers boosted employment in Germany to its highest since reunification in 1990, alongside steady GDP growth. By welcoming migrants, the UK is likely to see the same benefits; the UK’s flexible labour market means migrants find it relatively easy to find work, particularly when compared with countries with stricter labour market regulation. And despite other European countries seeing a fall in employment over the last four years – Italy by 425,000 and Spain by 375,000, to name just a few – the UK has seen a total employment increase of over 1,000,000. 2) “Migrants come here to take advantage of British benefits” Accord to a House of Commons Library briefing paper on Migrants and Benefits, just 2.2 percent of benefit claimants in February 2015 were EU migrants. In total, Non-UK nationals were less likely to be receiving key DWP out-of-work benefits than those born in the UK, and out of the ten top nationalities registering for UK benefits, only three were within the EU. So how much would leaving the EU to stop ‘EU migrants coming to the UK to live on benefits’ really make a difference? The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has conceded the ability for the UK to restrict migrants’ access to benefits for the first four years of their residence as part of a reformed EU membership for the UK – if we vote to Stay, this should no longer be a problem. But its clear that this is just a precaution – given the UK’s receptive jobs market, the primary motive for migration towards the UK is not benefit fraud, as Nigel Farage would have us believe, but the very real possibility of finding work and contributing to the economy. 43 percent of migrants from EU14 countries came for a definite job, followed by 27 percent moving to study at the UK’s world class universities – often then graduating as a skilled worker into our labour market. 3) “Immigration is a one way street” It is a fact often forgotten that the right to migrate to other EU countries is mutual. There were an estimated 1.2 million UK-born people living in other EU countries in 2015, most of them live in Spain, Ireland and France. Those who choose to move to Spain are often retired, and in their own words, enjoy the use of Spain’s famously good National Health Service. In the year to September 2015 around 40,000 more British nationals left the UK to live abroad than came back, and before 2008 the net number of British emigrants outstripped that of any other EU country at the time. The overwhelming evidence is that migrants come to the UK to work, and therefore contribute to the economy – not to claim benefits. The figures speak for themselves: countries who take the most migrants, such as Denmark, Sweden and Germany, have booming economies – with GDPs far greater than ours. A strong social security system and training programmes allows both skilled and unskilled migrants to find jobs – to very positive effects. And whilst the argument rages over the cost of EU membership to the UK, let it not be forgotten how much the referendum itself has cost; according to the latest figure from the Cabinet Office, the total will be around £142.2 million. If we can spend that on a year long campaign that brings out the worst of British politics, we can certainly afford to integrate migrants into our country and watch them boost our economy.

17/06/2016