EasyJet shares fly as dividend reinstated after summer demand jumps, Gaza conflict hits winter bookings

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On Tuesday, EasyJet reported a record H2 pre-tax profit as soaring demand for holidays over the summer helped the company swing to a pre-tax profit for the full year.

EasyJet shares were up 3.36% and are trading at 418p at the time of writing on Tuesday.

In the fiscal year 2023, easyJet reported a headline profit before tax of £455 million, showing a substantial improvement of £633 million compared to the previous year.

EasyJet holidays experienced remarkable growth, expanding 221%, with the pre-tax profit being £122 million.

According to Sophie Lund-Yates from Hargreaves Lansdown, “easyJet has once again shown how its best-in-class operation has set it up for success. The group’s measured expansion at high-calibre airports has proved an especially shrewd move, as has the supercharged effort to push easyJet holidays. In a time when cost and convenience are the ultimate precursors to whether or not customers will splash on a trip, easyJet has been able to scoop up lots of existing demand in its net.”

She added that “investors are being rewarded for their patience following a bumpy few years with the reinstating of the dividend. The starting point means there’s plenty of room for growth, but it will allow EasyJet to dip its toe before diving in, which is the right move in such an uncertain

Looking into the future, EasyJet reports that the revenue per seat for Q2 to Q4 is expected to outperform YoY.

EasyJet holiday sales are anticipated to experience growth of over 35% in FY24, with the average selling price (ASP) increasing.

Investors will also be happy to learn the company is reinstating a dividend of 4.5p to be paid in early 2024.

EasyJet also reported a plan to increase the payout to 20% of the profit after tax for FY24.

Sophie Lund-Yates further stated, “easyJet is adamant that households will continue to prioritise travel in the new financial year. There are early indications that’s true, but that could change at short notice if the UK folds into recession.”

Lund-Yates also highlighted the conflict in the Middle East was hurting winter bookings.

“The conflict in the Middle East also has the potential to dent performance and will need monitoring closely. The good news for easyJet is that its problems are all outside of its control, which tells the market that its proposition is about as good as it can be and is waiting to take off once conditions allow,” Lund-Yates said.

Zoopla House Price Index: house sales are up as buyers negotiate lower prices

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On Tuesday, property portal Zoopla released the House Price Index for the month of November, which shows that housing discounts are at a 5-year peak as the UK property adapts to elevated mortgage rates.

Zoopla’s data shows that the property sales are being settled at an average of 5.5% below the asking price.

The 5.5% discount represents an average £18,000 and marks an increase from 3.4% in the first half of the current year.

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, explained that “the root of the problem is a lack of buyers because higher mortgage rates are pushing potential properties out of reach.

“Demand is down 13% from this point in 2019. At the same time, we’ve seen a rebound in the number of properties for sale—up a third in a year—so any potential buyers have plenty to choose from.”

The number of homes for sale in the UK is at its highest level for six years.

Sellers are now way more likely to accept larger discounts in response to increased housing supply and the need to attract buyers, Zoopla reports.

According to Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla“These are the best conditions for home buyers for some years, with more homes to choose from and sellers more prepared to negotiate on price to agree on a sale.

“There is a growing acceptance that what a home might have been worth a year ago is now largely academic, given current market conditions. Sellers have plenty of room to negotiate, with average house prices still £41,350 higher than the start of the pandemic.”

Putting the trend into context, the Zoopla report shows that a persistent shortage of homes for sale, especially those with three or more bedrooms, played a crucial role in driving up house prices from 2020 to 2022.

Richard Donnell further said that “it’s a positive sign that new sales continue to be agreed upon at a faster rate than a year ago and pre-pandemic. This indicates that house prices do not need to post bigger falls to get people moving, but sellers need to be ready for more negotiations on price. New sales will slow as we run up to Christmas, and some sellers will take homes off the market ready to relaunch in the new year.“

The data further highlights that estate agents are now selling the highest number of houses in six years.

Guy Gittins, CEO of Foxtons, one of the UK’s biggest estate agencies, said that “in contrast to the rest of the country, London has not experienced a sweeping decline in house prices; however, the market does experience a higher volume of price adjustments. A good agent understands where the market is trading and has the data to find the best price that will still stimulate activity.”

According to Zoopla’s report, financial markets are predicting that the Bank of England will initiate rate cuts around the summer of 2024. If this results in further drops in mortgage rates, it could lead to an uptick in demand and sales volumes later in the coming year. Nevertheless, house prices are anticipated to experience a gradual decline throughout the year.

Sarah Coles, from Hargreaves Lansdown, said, “The worst is far from over. In a market like this, an awful lot of sellers will decide now is not the time to be trying to sell and take their house off the market for now. The Office for Budget Responsibility thinks transactions will keep dropping from here and will be down an average of 6.9% in 2024.”

Adding that “this will take a toll on house prices, The OBR expects them to fall 4.7% in 2024, taking the peak-to-trough drop to 7.6%. Even then, it doesn’t think we’ll bounce back in a hurry, and it will take until the second half of 2027 to get back to their 2022 peak.”

Finally, Sarah Coles advised that “if you’re planning to postpone a purchase, it makes sense to shop around for the best possible savings account for your deposit while you wait. Higher savings rates and lower inflation mean that if you get a really competitive deal, you should be able to hang onto the buying power of your cash, even if you can’t afford to move for six months or longer.”

Pets at Home shares up as sales growth exceeds targets

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Pets at Home published its half-year report on Tuesday, revealing that the pet retailer’s H1 consumer revenue 8.6% in the period, smashing their 7% growth target.

Pets at Home shares were up 2.57% to trade at 294p at the time of writing.

Total revenue increased to £774.2 million during the 28-week period ending 12th October, with comparable sales showing a growth of 6.2%.

The growth trend persisted into the initial weeks of the third quarter, recording a roughly 4% rise in comparable retail sales as the holiday season approached.

The underlying pre-tax profit of the group decreased by 19.3%, amounting to £47.8 million for the half-year, primarily attributed to the rise in digital investments.

The company’s CEO, Lyssa McGowan, said that, “our medium-term vision and strategy is to build the world’s best pet care platform. This will generate sustainable value for all stakeholders, as we create a better world for pets and the people that love them.

“We are the largest, and by far the most trusted, pet care business in the UK. We already have a leading 24% share of the £7.2bn UK pet care market, an industry supported by structural growth, underpinning resilience and predictability in our revenues.”

According to Susannah Streeter from Hargreaves Lansdown, “Desires to keep our four-legged friends fed, watered, and entertained have helped the company reach £1 billion in half-year sales. Conditions still seem clement for the pet chain, although the Competition and Markets Authority’s ongoing investigation into the vet sector is still a headwind.”

Susannah Streeter further explained that ,”While this isn’t the entire business case, an unfavourable set of rulings could hamper sentiment, but there’s cautious optimism that this won’t be the case.

“In broader business, fears that the lockdown surge in ownership would subside don’t seem to be materialising. Working from home habits have kept the trend strong, and recurring revenue is bedded in. However, given the competitiveness online, the company must ensure it keeps all its ducks in a row as it continues to expand.”

AIM movers: FAB collaboration and Totally shocking interims

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Antibody discovery and supply company Fusion Antibodies (LON: FAB) is collaborating with the US-based National Cancer Institute in the use of its OptiMAL technology in the discovery of antibodies for specific cancer targets. Fusion Antibodies will not have to commit significant resources to the collaboration. The share price jumped 29% to 4.45p.

Interims from Supreme (LON: SUP) reported record interim revenues of £105.1m and the growth came from all divisions. Branded distribution and vaping were the strongest divisions. Interim underlying pre-tax profit doubled to £12.6m. Investment in stocks meant that net cash became net debt of £4.8m. Full year pre-tax profit of £28.4m is forecast by Zeus. The share price increased 13.2% to 124.5p.

A positive trading update from mobile work as a service business Crimson Tide (LON: TIDE) has pushed up the share price by 12.3% to 160p. A slightly lower loss is forecast for 2023 and breakeven is still expected in 2024. Cost savings have been reinvested in marketing.

Scancell Holdings (LON: SCLP) has added two responders to the SCOPE study for the treatment of melanoma, taking the total to 11 out of 13 patients. The second stage has started and a further 27 patients will be recruited. The aim is to get at least 18 further responses. That would enable a randomised phase 2/3 study to take place, possibly with a partner. The share price rose 8.8% to 13.6p.

Strong trading in October and November has led to upgrades for transport technology company Journeo (LON: JNEO). This year’s pre-tax profit forecast has been raised from £3.7m to £3.9m, which is nearly quadruple the 2022 figure, helped by acquisitions. Even earnings have doubled. The share price is 6.48% higher at 230p.

FALLERS

Healthcare services provider Totally (LON: TLY) is restructuring its business after a tough first half. Revenues were one-fifth lower at £55.8m due to lower urgent care business levels. Annualised cost savings of £3m have been made and there could be more to come. The share price has fallen by one-quarter to 6.6p.

88 Energy (LON: 88E) is raising A$9.9m (£5.3m) at A$0.0045/share (0.23p). The share price slipped 19.6% to 0.225p. The oil and gas company had A$10.2m in cash at the end of September 2023. The cash will fund flow testing of the Hickory-1 well at Project Phoenix and exploration at the Owambo Basin in Namibia.

Safety and regulatory compliance services provider Marlowe (LON: MRL) achieved organic growth of 6% in the first half, but this did not show through in underlying earnings, which fell 15% to 18.9p/share. A strategic review is underway and non-core businesses could be sold. Full year earnings have been downgraded by 7% to 44.3p/share. The share price is 16.5% lower at 421p.

Crossword Cybersecurity (LON: CCS) says revenues have not grown as fast as expected. Conversion of interest into contracts is slowing down. This means that full year revenues will be between £4.1m and £4.3m and not £6m as previously guided. The loss will be similar to expectations. Next year’s revenues could be around £7m and not £8m. Cash breakeven could happen before the end of 2024. The share price declined 10.5%.

Kodal Minerals shares look fully valued at £100m as investors jump ship

Kodal Minerals shares have sunk since the lithium miner announced the completion of the funding from their Chinese financing partner.

The recent sell-off was a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ trade and is typical of mining companies securing financing and entering a phase of no news and little development.

Kodal Minerals lacks any catalysts for a meaningful re-rate in the short and medium term. Financing has been secured, and the mine will be built.

All Kodal investors really have to look forward to over the next year is possible announcements on issues and challenges with mine construction. This should be expected, and shares will react accordingly.

Those investors with a propensity for higher-risk junior mining exploration companies have plenty of other companies on AIM to choose from that have announced promising early-stage results and are further evaluating their assets. Kodal investors are jumping ship to pursue these opportunities.

In addition, the current circa £100m valuation seems fair given the value attributed to their Bougouni project and the work required to bring it into production.

The $100m acquisition of a 51% stake in the newly incorporated UK subsidiary holding the Bougouni lithium project naturally infers Kodal’s stake is worth a little under $100m.

Of course, this will change should lithium be produced as planned.

Kodal does have other mining assets, but these are of little value.

Looking to the future and to comparisons with peers producing lithium at meaningful volumes, there is plenty of opportunity for the Kodal share price to increase to match peer group valuations.

However, there is a long road ahead to achieving material production from the Bougouni project. Only at this point will Kodal be attributed the valuation other junior lithium miners command.

Diageo shares: buying opportunities such as this are rare

Diageo shares currently present investors with the opportunity to buy into the alcohol giant at a very attractive valuation, well below the average earning multiple since 2015.

Due to slowing activity in Latin America and the Caribbean region, Diageo shares crashed in early November. We argue this drawdown rounds off a period of prolonged selling of the stock that started in 2021 when Diageo shares briefly traded above 4,100p.

Diageo shares now trade at 2,785p.

The company has provided investors with consistent returns for over two decades. The slowdown in their Caribbean and Latin ...

JLEN Environmental discount increases

JLEN Environmental Assets Group Ltd (LON: JLEN) maintained the value of its portfolio in the six months to September 2023, but its NAV slipped by 3% following dividend payments.

NAV is 119.7p/share and there is net debt of £124.6m. The revolving credit facility is £200m and there is £75m left to draw down – this facility lasts until May 2025. This year’s total dividend will be increased by 6% to 7.57p/share.

Three-fifths of income is index-linked. There was record cash generation from the renewables assets and this provided additional cash to be reinvested. Management is seeking to recycle capital by selling some of the wind and solar assets. There are spare bank facilities, but management is cautious about increasing borrowings.

The portfolio has changed over recent years with wind down to 28% of the total. Waste and bioenergy is 24%, anaerobic digestion 19% and solar 14%. Various assets make up the rest of the portfolio.

Hydrogen production is currently the focus for new investment. The first investment with partner HH2E should soon reach final investment decision. There is a second potential hydrogen development.

The share price has fallen to 95.5p, which is a discount of one-fifth to NAV. The average discount so far in this financial year is 13%. If it averages more than 10% for a whole financial year, the investment company has to have a discontinuation vote. This will not necessarily be in favour of discontinuation.

There are plans for share buy backs to help to reduce the discount to NAV.

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Horizonte Minerals: heads roll after financing errors

Horizonte Minerals announced multiple changes to its board and senior leadership on Monday as it worked to finance the construction of its Araguaia nickel project.

CEO Jeremy Martin, CFO Simon Retter, Non-Executive Interim Chair William Fisher, and Non-Executive Director Owen Bavinton will step down from their roles and the board.

The departures come as the company scrambles to secure financing to complete the flagship nickel project after announcing a material shortfall in the initial estimates of how much it will cost to get the project to production.

Founding CEO Jeremy Martin led Horizonte’s acquisition of two Brazilian nickel assets and oversaw feasibility studies and initial project construction. Martin was instrumental in progressing the asset to construction during his 12-year tenure as CEO.

CFO Simon Retter is also leaving the board after serving alongside directors Fisher and Bavinton since 2011. Horizonte said all departing board members and officers will aid leadership transitions.

The company said the changes are intended to support ongoing financing discussions to finish constructing Araguaia. The departures are likely the result of external pressures on the company from those considering financing options. Indeed, the Managing Partner and Co-Chief Investment Officer of one of Horizonte’s major shareholders has stepped in as interim CEO to find replacements.

The term ‘rats fleeing a sinking ship’ also comes to mind, but it seems cruel given the excellent work the team did in getting the project to the stage they did before the recent financing woes came to light.

FTSE 100 slips as Chinese property concerns hit miners

The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 slipped on Monday as miners dragged the index lower following further concerning developments in the Chinese property sector.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.3% at the time of writing.

“Renewed worries about the outlook for the Chinese economy caused tremors across global markets at the start of the new trading week. There was a slowdown in China’s industrial profit growth during October, causing markets to speculate its government will have to come up with yet another stimulus measure to avoid the economy spluttering,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Shares in mining companies tend to slip back whenever there are concerns about China, given it is a major consumer of commodities. True to form, the big mining stocks were in the red on Monday.

“BHP dropped 1.1%, Anglo slipped 0.9%, Rio Tinto fell 0.6% and Glencore retreated 0.4%. A 0.9% drop in the Brent Crude oil price to $79.83 pulled down BP and Shell. Prudential’s focus on Asia also saw its shares caught up in the sell-off, down 0.7%.”

The problems with China’s property market do not want to go away. This may cause problems for London’s leading index through 2024.

The FTSE 100 is heavily weighted towards China, and the index’s direction is more often than not driven by Chinese economic data and developments in the property market.

High-profile problems with Chinese property giants Evergrande and Countrywide have proved to be the beginning of a rumbling crisis for Chinese property companies that is souring commodity markets and general investor sentiment.

“China’s property sector troubles look increasingly intractable as one of its huge lenders is now mired in a criminal investigation after declaring insolvency,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The real estate boom has turned into a slow motion bust, with companies facing spiralling debt problems, and malaise seeping deeper into the financial sector.  Authorities are probing illegal crimes at Zhongi Enterprise Group, which saw the value of its assets collapse as property prices have spiralled downwards. The latest twist in this sorry property tale of super-speculation is likely to hurt wider confidence further, as it burrows deep into household perceptions of wealth.”

Although China dragged the FTSE 100 on Monday, the losses were contained, suggesting investors are becoming conditioned to poor news from China and the slower Chinese economy is largely priced into markets.

Rightmove

Rightmove was top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard on Monday after the property portal shook off a slowing UK property to lift their guidance on key revenue metrics.

The momentum that we reported in July has continued through the third quarter and beyond,” Johan Svanstrom, CEO of Rightmove, said.

Russ Mould explained the benefits of Rightmove’s business model and the resilience its displays during tougher market conditions; “It has long been argued that Rightmove could do well in both good and bad market conditions.”

“When times are good, it benefits from a steady flow of properties being advertised on its portal. During tougher times, estate agents and home developers need to work harder to attract potential buyers and that means spending more on advertising.”

Rightmove shares were 5% higher at the time of writing.