Mothercare shares rise despite Middle East slow down

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UK retailer Mothercare saw shares jump on Friday despite interim sales dropping 15% on tougher trading conditions in the Middle East.

Mothercare shares were up 4.26% and trading at 490p at 10.32am.

Global retail sales through franchise partners totalled £137.2 million (compared to £162.1 million in 2022), marking a 15% decrease from the previous year (13% decrease when adjusted for currency fluctuations).

This decline was attributed to challenging trading conditions in the Middle East, which experienced a 20% decrease compared to last year.

The sales in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia, have been dropping relentlessly.

It is also mentioned that fiscal and legislative shifts, along with new leisure options competing for consumer spending, are reshaping consumer behaviour.

Excluding Middle East sales, ongoing operations saw a 6% decline compared to the previous year at constant currency.

Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that after these news reports, “Mothercare is in need of some self-care.”

She added that “tough trading conditions, especially in the Middle East, are causing problems for a company that’s already had to peddle extremely hard to stay afloat.”

The group’s revenue decreased to £29 million in the first half, down from £38.5 million last year and significantly below the £44.4 million recorded in 2020.

The company’s chairman, Clive Whiley, said in a statement that “these results are testament to our continued drive to preserve the strength of the Mothercare brand in a fast-changing retail and macroeconomic trading environment. Against significant headwinds in the Middle East, one of our core markets, we are pleased that our business model and disciplined approach to cost have resulted in an increase in profitability for the first half.”

Net debt increased to £15.8 million, compared to £11.6 million on September 24, 2022.

The company’s report further states that efforts are ongoing to address the pension scheme’s current deficit of £35 million (as of March 31, 2023), despite the reduction from £124.5 million since March.

Additionally, adjusted EBITDA increased by 12% to £3.6 million for the six months ending on September 23, 2023.

According to Sophie Lund-Yates, “an area that needs a laser-like focus from management is the net debt pile, which stands at many times the amount of the group’s cash profits.”

She added that “there’s also a sizable pension deficit to clear. For now, profits are being supported by deep cost cuts, but these can only go on for so long and won’t be enough in the long run.”

Chairman Clive Whiley says that the brand now hopes to expand its global presence. This involves entering new markets through various channels, such as e-commerce (direct or through marketplaces) or partnering with those holding online rights for a region.

This strategy will provide Mothercare with a chance for substantial growth, the statement explains, bringing synergies and increased profitability by leveraging the group’s strengths in supply, franchise partnerships, and international reach.

FTSE 100 flat as ex-dividends weigh, GBP/USD jumps

The FTSE 100 was almost dead flat at the time of writing on Thursday as the impact of stocks trading ex-dividend offset minor gains elsewhere.

Trade was thin with US markets closed for the Thanks Giving Holiday, and there was little for investors to get excited about in terms of corporate updates from FTSE 100 companies.

London’s leading index was weighed down by several high-yielding stocks trading ex-dividend. Companies trading without the right to their next dividend included Vodafone, National Grid and Land Securities.

A stronger pound also capped FTSE 100 gains after Flash UK PMI painted a better-than-expected picture for UK businesses.

“The UK economy found its feet again in November as the service sector arrested a three-month sequence of decline and manufacturers began to report less severe cutbacks to production schedules,” said Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Relief at the pause in interest rate hikes and a clear slowdown in headline measures of inflation are helping to support business activity, although the latest survey data merely suggests broadly flat UK GDP in the final quarter of 2023.”

GBP/USD rose to 1.2540 against the dollar, and the inverse relationship between the FTSE 100 and sterling meant the index underperformed Europe.

Intertek

Intertek was the FTSE 100’s top gainers after announcing a 7% increase in revenue year-to-date and confirmed mid-digit revenue growth guidance for the full year.

Intertek shares were 3.3% higher at the time fo writing.

IAG was among the fallers as the airline fell in sympathy with Jet2 after the peer released a mixed update saying bookings had slowed in recent weeks.

AIM movers: Jersey Oil & Gas farm out secured, while United Oil & Gas loses prospective partner

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Jersey Oil & Gas (LON: JOG) has secured a second farm out agreement for its Greater Buchan Area project in the UK North Sea. The terms of the agreement with Serica Energy (LON: SQZ) is similar to the one secured with NEO. Serica Energy will earn up to 30% for a mix of cash and capital investment – $6.8m is payable on completion. Jersey Oil & Gas is fully funded until first oil for the Buchan field redevelopment. The share price jumped 23.1% to 242.5p. The Serica Energy share price rose 2.27% to 211.5p.

The family of Steppe Cement (LON: STCM) chief executive Javier del Ser Perez bought 200,000 shares at 22.375p, taking their stake to 8.63%. The share price improved 9.3% to 23.5p.

Maritime AI provider Windward (LON: WNWD) has signed a five-year contract with a European national coastguard that is valued at €3.2m. The cash is expected to be paid upfront, while annual contract value will be increased by $700,000/year. That means that the 2024 forecast revenues are around 90% covered by annualised recurring revenues. The share price rose 9.09% to 72p.

Shares in floorcoverings manufacturer Victoria (LON: VCP) recovered following yesterday’s warning that the second half is likely to be tougher. The share price increased 9.02% to 278p.

FALLERS

United Oil & Gas (LON: UOG) says that the preferred potential partner for the Walton Morant licence in Jamaica has pulled out. Other parties are interested. The licence period expires in January and an extension is being negotiated. Simon Brett has been appointed as non-board finance director. The share price slumped 20.1% to 0.775p.

Neometals (LON: NMT) has completed the A$9m from a placing at 10p/share and wants to raise a further £6.8m from a one-for-eight entitlement offer. The cash will fund the development of the nickel, cobalt, lithium recycling business Primobius, including the delivery of a facility to Mercedes Benz, and potentially to purchase a stake in Canadian licensee Stelco. The share price fell a further 8.33% to 11p.

Plant Health Care (LON: PHC) shares continue to decline after yesterday’s trading statement. Destocking in the agrichemical market means that full year revenues are likely to be flat, which is a relatively good performance when compared with the sector. Revenue expectations for 2024 have been cut by 28% to $16.6m. The share price slipped a further 6.08% to 3.55p.

Trading in SigmaRoc (LON: SRC) shares recommenced after the publication of the readmission document following the purchase of the European lime assets from CRH (LON: CRH). The building materials supplier has raised £200m via a placing at 47.5p/share with a further £1.3m raised from an offer. CRH is taking a 15.4% shareholding. The total consideration for the lime assets is $1.1bn, which is in three phases with the initial acquisition of assets in Germany, Czech Republic and Poland. In 2022, revenues were around $610m and EBITDA was $137m. The SigmaRoc share price declined 5.08% to 47.65p.

Ex-dividends

Cake Box (LON: CBOX) is paying an interim dividend of 2.9p/share and the share price increased 0.5p to 147.5p.

Craneware (LON: CRW) is paying a final dividend of 16p/share and the share price is 10p lower at 1630p.

FRP Advisory (LON: FRP) is paying a dividend of 0.9p/share and the share price fell 1.5p to 121p.

Inspiration Healthcare (LON: IHC) is paying an interim dividend of 0.21p/share and the share price is unchanged at 39.5p.

Lok’nStore (LON: LOK) is paying a final dividend of 13.25p/share and the share price slipped 19p to 739p.

Tatton Asset Management (LON: TAM) is paying an interim dividend of 8p/share and the share price improved 1p to 523p.

Tristel (LON: TSTL) is paying a final dividend of 7.88p/share and the share price fell 5p to 425p.

Young & Co’s Brewery (LON: YNGA) is paying an interim dividend of p/share and the share price slipped 5p to 1090p.

Yu Group (LON: YU.) is paying an interim dividend of 3p/share and the share price declined 20p to 1110p.

Oil drops on Middle East ceasefire talks and a postponed OPEC+ meeting

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WTI Crude is down 0.88%, while Brent is down 0.94%. At the time of writing, WTI Crude is trading at $76.40 per barrel, while Brent costs $81.25 .

The loss follows the 4% drop in the oil prices yesterday.

Oil prices have been falling as ceasefire talks developed in the Middle East. Although, a ceasefire is yet to be agreed upon.

On Thursday the Israeli army announced it attacked approximately 300 Hamas points on Wednesday, despite ongoing intensive hostage negotiations.

OPEC+ was supposed to meet on Sunday but was rescheduled to November 30th, which also did not reflect positively on oil.

OPEC+ sources informed Reuters that the situation is due to an issue with some African countries, but exact details are unclear.

Jet2 shares descend as winter bookings slow

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On Wednesday, airline Jet2 plc released interim results, which show that although the revenue rose in the last half-year period, bookings have slowed in recent weeks.

Jet2 shares were down 4.48% at the time of writing on Thursday and were trading at 1,080.30 p.

A major contributor to higher revenue was increased prices. The average cost of a Jet2 package holidays increased by 11%.

The net ticket yield per passenger sector for flight-only services reached £124.09, marking an 18% rise from the previous year’s £105.00.

Operating profit rose 19% to £617 million.

The company further states that there were instances when their operational performance was directly affected by various disruptions, including the NATS failure, Rhodes wildfires, and Skiathos flooding, resulting in an approximate loss of £14.0 million in profitability.

According to Russ Mould from AJ Bell, “Jet2 says it has a ‘wonderful product for challenging economic times’ but you imagine internally the company must be aware it has benefited from extreme pent-up demand in the wake of COVID, which meant people were so keen for a week in the sun they would prioritise it above almost anything else”.

Mould also added that “where Jet2 does have credit in the bank is in how it deals with customers—notably being more straightforward and decisive than rivals during the period of pandemic disruption.”

The total cash balance, which includes money market deposits, reached £3,214.6 million, marking a 14% increase from the previous year.

For the Winter 2023–24 season, despite a 21% rise in on-sale seat capacity to 4.49 million, the higher-margin per passenger package holiday mix for departing passengers has increased by 2.6 percentage points, the Jet2 report explains.

It further states that, while recent bookings have been slightly slower, average pricing remains strong.

The company’s CEO, Steve Heapy, stated that “we are pleased to have delivered another strong financial performance during the first half of the financial year, despite the well-publicised external challenges faced. This clearly demonstrates that our end-to-end package holiday is a popular and resilient product and is the right product for price-conscious customers.”

However, Russ Mould said on the topic that “Jet2 says it has a ‘wonderful product for challenging economic times’ but you imagine internally the company must be aware it has benefited from extreme pent-up demand in the wake of COVID, which meant people were so keen for a week in the sun they would prioritise it above almost anything else.”

Adding that, “An all-in package holiday, of which Jet2 is selling more and more, offers certainty on cost, but that doesn’t make it cheap”.

The Jet2 report further states that, looking ahead to summer 2024, the current seat capacity of 17.19 million seats is about 12% higher than summer 2023.

A UK Small Cap Rerate, Cadence Minerals, ECR Minerals with Alan Green

Alan Green joined the UK Investor Magazine Podcast to dive into a selection of UK equities and provide scenarios for broader markets after the Autumn Statement.

This Podcast explores potential scenarios for UK markets and the catalysts for a rerating of UK mid and small caps.

We discuss Cadence Minerals (LON:KDNC) and ECR Minerals (LON:ECR).

Alan outlines the valuation case for Cadence Minerals, given the current share price and the underlying value of their portfolio of mining assets.

ECR Minerals is proceeding with a more positive tone after a change of leadership. Alan provides an update on activities.

Energy bills to rise in the UK

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Ofgem, Britain’s energy regulator, said in a statement on Thursday that the energy bills are to rise as the regulator raises the price cap by 5%.

The price cap, adjusted every quarter, establishes the maximum amount that can be charged to customers for energy bills.

For an average household using dual fuel and paying through direct debit, this means a yearly increase of £94, which is approximately £7.83 per month.

All together, given the new price cap, this adds up to £1,928.

Jonathan Brearley, CEO of Ofgem, said that “this is a difficult time for many people, and any increase in bills will be worrying. But this rise—around the levels we saw in August—is a result of the wholesale cost of gas and electricity rising, which needs to be reflected in the price that we all pay.

The current price hike was attributed to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, amongst other geopolitical challenges.

Nonetheless, the UK is still grappling with a degree of inflation and a cost of living crisis.

Although the inflation rate fell by 4.6% in October, some analysts attribute it to lower energy use due to a slightly warmer summer and autumn.

On Wednesday, Jeremy Hunt of the Conservatives announced 0.7% tax cuts, which will be worth £18bn of GDP.

Many were pleased with this and many other announcements. However, according to Susannah Streeter, Head of Money and Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown,

“News that energy bills are set to rise for millions of households in January will come as a blow after the sweeteners offered by the UK government in terms of those cuts to NI tax”.

Similarly, Danni Hewson from AJ Bell said, “It’s a timely reminder that inflation might be falling, but some prices are still rising”.

The CEO, Jonathan Brearley, also said that “we are also seeing the return of choice to the market, which is a positive sign, and customers could benefit from shopping around with a range of tariffs now available offering the security of a fixed rate or a more flexible deal that tracks below the price cap”.

He advised the people to “weigh up all the information, seek independent advice from trusted sources, and consider what is most important for them, whether that’s the lowest price or the security of a fixed deal.”

Ofgem has issued updated guidelines for energy providers, emphasising the importance of giving priority to inquiries from vulnerable customers seeking assistance.

Suppliers are urged to proactively engage with households missing two monthly or one quarterly payment, assessing their financial challenges, and providing support such as affordable payment plans or potential repayment holidays if deemed suitable.

EIS & VCT sunset clause extended to 2035 in Autumn Statement

The EIS and VCT sunset clause has been extended to 2035 in this week’s Autumn Statement, providing certainty for entrepreneurs and investors in young companies at the heart of the UK economy.

Venture Capital Trusts and the SEIS and EIS schemes provide vital tax incentives for private investors to invest in exciting early-stage companies.

Confirmation the sunset clause will be extended by 10 years to 2025 removes uncertainty for investors and managers, and demonstrates the government’s support for the UK’s entrepreneurs.

The tax benefits available to UK investors wishing to invest in early-stage companies are among the most generous in the world.

“It’s excellent news that the Chancellor has committed to extending VCTs’ sunset clause to 2035. This addresses an urgent issue as the sunset clause would have automatically ended VCT tax relief in April 2025. The extension to 2035 will help provide certainty to investors and businesses and enable VCTs to continue supporting UK growth companies,” said Richard Stone, Chief Executive of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC).

“VCTs play a vital role in providing funding and support to small, ambitious UK businesses, a key driver of economic growth. The AIC will continue to work with the government as the legislation passes through parliament and we hope this measure will unlock further investment.”

Shearwater heading back to profit

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Cyber security services provider Shearwater Group (LON: SWG) appears set to return to profit this year. The core software businesses have been integrated, as have two of the three consultancy businesses. The cost savings will show through in the second half.

In the six months to September 2023, revenues dipped from £10.8m to £10.5m. That was due to much lower software revenues.  Even so, gross profit improved and, stripping out amortisation and exceptionals, the underlying loss reduced £493,000 to £93,000. That is before restructuring costs.

AIM-quoted Shearwater is winning new contracts with 41 new clients signing up this year, including a UK government department. New software launches should help software revenues to rebuild.

The strong balance sheet has helped Shearwater to weather the tougher trading. The second half cash position is always higher than at the half way stage. Net cash of £5m is forecast for the end of March 2023.

Cavendish forecasts a full year turnaround from a loss of £1.3m to an underlying pre-tax profit of £1m. The share price lost 3.5p, ending the day at 45.5p. That is less than eleven times prospective earnings. There is a need for cyber security software and services and if Shearwater can continue to win business the share price should recover.

FTSE 100 dips after measured Autumn Statement.

The FTSE 100 started the day higher before sellers took the index lower through the session in the run-up to the Autumn Statement.

As we well know, past budgets have caused sharp swings in UK markets, but the raft of measures outlined by Jeremy Hunt barely moved UK equities, and bond yields remained steady.

The FTSE 100 was trading down 10 points to 7,471 at the time of writing.

The Chancellor was keen to cut taxes ahead of elections next year and delivered a cut to national insurance, and made full expensing of investment in business equipment permanent. The move allows companies to offset investment in IT and machinery against corporation tax.

The government would have been conscious of fallout in financial markets if they were too loose with tax cuts amid a downgrade to the UK’s growth forecasts.

Measures to help planning applications did little to help housebuilding shares, and news the government was considering a Natwest share sale to boost the population’s involvement in the UK equity market neither helped Natwest shares nor trading platforms such as Hargreaves Lansdown.

Taylor Wimpey was down 0.9% and Hargreaves slipped 0.8%. Natwest gave up 1.2%.

Kingfisher and Sage

The major movers on Wednesday were Kingfisher and Sage Group, who released very different trading updates and were met with very different reactions from shareholders.

Kingfisher was the top faller after saying poor weather caused a slowdown in their European business as total group revenue fell. The DIY company is suffering from lower spending after the pandemic and is facing macroeconomic headwinds. Their UK business showed strength with a minor sales increase as they increased market share.

Nonetheless, disappointment around the European business dragged shares 6% lower on Wednesday.

Sage shares surged as the software and solution company enjoyed growth across all areas, with exceptional growth in their cloud business. Sage Business Cloud revenue grew 25% to £1,628m as total group revenue increased to £2,184m.

Sage shares were 13% higher at the time of writing.