Autumn Statement highlights: ‘110 measures to help grow the British economy’

The UK Chancellor has delivered an Autumn Statement that cuts the average worker’s tax by £450 per year and encourages businesses to invest in machinery and equipment.

The Chancellor started by taking credit for halving inflation, a questionable claim given the dynamics of inflationary cycles and the actions the government have actually taken.

The OBR said the measures announced today would reduce inflation but the Bank of England’s target 2% inflation won’t be met until 2025.

UK growth for next year and the year after has been downgraded substantially by the OBR. UK growth is expected to be 0.6% this year, 0.7% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025.

Debt as a proportion of GDP will fall to 92.8% by 2029 after rising in the coming years.

Jeremy Hunt said his plans were designed for the long-term, which was met with laughter from the opposite bench. The conservatives are miles behind the polls and will do well to be in power after next Christmas.

The Chancellor also announced they were exploring a public share sales of Natwest shares and were allocating £7m to fight antisemitism. Speaking about the rise of antisemitism in the UK, he said “when it comes to antisemitism, and all forms of racism, we must never allow the clock to be turned back.” 

Housing

Reform the planning process to speed up planning applications by reimbursing local government for the costs of processing applications for larger business projects.

£450m allocated to local housing projects.

Permission for any house to be converted into two flats as long the exterior remains unchanged.

Stamp Duty on Shares

Stamp Duty relief on shares will be extended to growth markets, and the market capitalisation threshold is to be increased from £170 million to £450 million.

Matt Tickle, Chief Investment Office at independent consultancy Barnett Waddingham said:

“Hidden in the little red book is some good news which deserved to make the cut for the speech. The Chancellor is going to extend the relief from Stamp Duty on shares. It will now include smaller, innovative growth markets, as well as increase the threshold for the market capitalisation condition that is used within the exemption from £170 million to £450 million. These changes are set to be implemented from 1st January 2024.”

VCT and EIS

Government to extend the existing sunset clauses for EIS and VCT to April 2035 supporting investment into exciting early stage companies for many years to come.

Business Investment

£500m to be allocated to a fund to propel the UK’s AI sector through innovation centres and make the UK an ‘AI Powerhouse’.

£45bn to be allocated to the manufacturing sector in the years up to 2030. Money will be allocated to sectors like aerospace and life sciences.

Tax

National Insurance cut from 12% to 10%. This will reduce tax for 27 million across the UK. Someone earning £32,000 will save £450 a year.

The headline business tax cut was the making permanent of the 25% corporation tax offset businesses can claim back for investments made in plant and equipment.

75% business rates holiday for retailers and hospitality extended for an extra year.

Abolishment of Class 2 National Insurance for self-employed people, worth about £192 a year for the average self-employed person.

Benefits

National living wage increased to £11.44. This, combined with tax measures announced today, means people’s take-home pay will go up 30%.

Job seekers who haven’t found a job after 18 months will have to attend a compulsory course. Those who don’t attend will have their benefit revoked.

£10m will be made available to Veterans through mental health services.

To help the long-term sick and those with disabilities, new measures have been introduced to support working from home.

Universal Credit and other benefits are to be increased by 6.7% next year.

Pensions

The government committed to the pensions triple lock and increased pensions by 8.5% from April 2024.

Despite some predictions that the government would look to change the way in which the State Pension Triple Lock works, by removing the effect of bonuses on the figure produced for pay increases, the Chancellor instead announced today that they would honour the Triple Lock in full,” said William Stevens, Head of Financial Planning at Killik & Co.

“This will be welcome news to pensioners, many of whom rely on the State Pension to provide the basis for their expenditure in retirement. The 8.5% increase will take the full state pension to as much as £11,502 on an annual basis. A retired couple living on the State Pension alone could therefore have as much as £23,000 per year of guaranteed income to support them in retirement.” 

Employees will have the right to ask employers to pay contributions into their existing pension pots.

Alcohol Duty

Alcohol Duty will be frozen until August 2024, taking 3p off the duty for the average pint.

AIM movers: Quadrise completes fuel trial and Plant Heath Care hit by destocking

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Quadrise (LON: QED) has completed the industrial demonstration MSAR and bioMSAR fuels test in Morocco. Emissions were very low when running at 100% of capacity. A technical report is being prepared for the client and a long-term commercial supply agreement will be discussed. The share price recovered 22.1% to 1.45p.

Shares in Tremor International (LON: TRMR) recovered after it announced slightly better than expected results and a $20m share buyback. The programmatic advertising reported third quarter EBITDA 4% ahead of forecasts at $21.3m on revenues 18% higher at $76.6m. Full year pre-tax profit is expected to fall by more than two-thirds to $38.3m before recovering next year. Net cash should increase to $121m. The share price improved 16.8% to 161.65p.

Lifestyle concierge services provider Ten Lifestyle (LON: TENG) has moved into profit for the first time. It swung from a loss of £2.7m to a pre-tax profit of £3.2m thanks to economies of scale. There was also a tax credit recognised due to past tax losses. Investment in its digital platform and the international spread of business is helping Ten Lifestyle. New contract wins will help to increase this year’s pre-tax profit to £3.9m, according to Singer. The share price increased 12.5% to 103.5p.

RUA Life Sciences (LON: RUA) shares are rising for the third day running following news concerning potential contracts for the manufacturing business and progress with development and testing of heart valve and vascular products. Cash is being conserved and a partner is being sought to help fund the £6m cost of regulatory testing of the vascular product in the US. The share price rose another 8% to 40.5p.

FALLERS

Plant Health Care (LON: PHC) says deteriorating agriculture market conditions have hampered growth. There is destocking in the agrichemical market. Full year revenues are likely to be flat, which is a relatively good performance when compared with the sector. Revenue expectations for 2024 have been cut by 28% to $16.6m – a 38% increase on 2023 revenues – and it should still make a modest profit. The share price slumped 31.6% to 3.97p.

Promotional products services provider Pebble Group (LON: PEBB) admits that full year revenues will decline from £134m to £124m and EBITDA is likely to fall from £18m to £16m. Net cash should be at least £15.1m at the end of 2023. Digital commerce platform Facilisgroup has improved revenues, but promotional products supplier BrandAddition has been hit by weaker demand from technology and consumer clients. The share price dived 31.4% to a new low of 60p.

Parity (LON: PTY) announced the sale of its remaining business yesterday afternoon. It will become a cash shell. Parity will receive up to £3m depending on working capital adjustments for recruitment business Parity Professionals. The deal costs will be £240,000. There will be £639,000 including costs spent to settle the pension liability and finance the search for an alternative business. The company will change its name to Partway. The share price has declined 23.5% to 1.3p.

GreenRoc Mining (LON: GROC) has raised £461,000 at 2.5p/share to complete the feasibility study on the graphite anode process plant and environmental studies for the Amitsoq graphite mine in Greenland. The plan is to develop a vertically integrated mining and processing operation.  The share price slipped 23.9% to 2.55p, which is a new low.

Floorcoverings manufacturer Victoria (LON: VCP) reported interims in line with expectations but warned that the second half was likely to be tougher. There was a dip in interim EBITDA from £100.1m to £95.8m on lower revenues. North America was the one region where profitability improved. There are cost savings to come, but the weaker markets will offset some of this benefit. Singer forecasts a decline in full year pre-tax profit from £76.9m to £60.5m. The share price fell 21.2% to 238p.

LXi REIT to sell 66 Travelodge hotels

On Wednesday, the LXi REIT confirmed that it was planning to sell 66 Travelodge hotels in response to recent press speculation.

The REIT has received an offer for the sale of 66 Travelodge hotels, totalling £210 million, in line with their current book value as of 30th September 2023.

If the sale goes through, the proceeds will be used to pay down debt, reducing the group’s loan-to-value ratio from 38% to 34%.

The company further addresses the fact that this would also decrease the portion of the total rent roll contributed by Travelodge from 18% to 11%. 

It’s important to note that the sale is subject to contract and due diligence, and there’s no guarantee it will be finalised.

Kingfisher Q3 results disappoint 

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UK-based DIY retailer Kingfisher reported their Q3 results on Wednesday, which show a major decline in sales across almost all countries where the retailer operates. 

Shares fell over 5% in early trade on Wednesday as the company blamed poor weather for the slow results.

“The problem seems to be unseasonably warm temperatures dampening demand for insulation and heating products. Blaming the weather never goes down well with the market,” said AJ Bell’s Russ Mould.

In Q3, sales amounted to £3.2 billion, with a total sales decrease of -2.1% (reported) and -2.7% (constant currency). 

Like-for-like (LFL) sales experienced a -3.9% decline, including a -0.4% calendar impact. However, the company said overall volumes are showing signs of improvement.

Furthermore, data shows that retail and trade consumer trends remained resilient in the UK. 

France was the major weak spot for Kingfisher with sales crumbling in Q3. In France, sales were down 8.7% at reported currency and 8.5% at constant currency rates.

According to the CEO Thierry Garnier,” In France, our performance was impacted by a weak retail market, as well as a delayed start to insulation, plumbing and heating sales – to which Brico Dépôt is more heavily weighted – due to unusually warm autumn weather, and strong prior year comparatives in these categories.”

Sales in Poland were up 2.9% at reported currency and 7.5% at constant currency.  

Garnier commented on this by saying that “In Poland we are seeing early signs of recovery in the trading trend, against an incrementally more positive consumer and economic backdrop.”

Thierry Garnier further added that, ““We continue to focus on our execution and driving our strategy forward. Our online marketplaces are growing rapidly, with B&Q’s marketplace reaching 35% of its e-commerce sales in October.”

Adding that, “Screwfix has continued its international expansion, by launching as a pure- play online retailer in six new European countries, and opening four new stores in France in the quarter. We also continue to harness AI and data to support sales, profit and cash, including by growing our retail media proposition across the Group.”

Nvidia posts record Q3 revenue but China concerns curb enthusiasm

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Californian tech giant Nvidia has reported astonishing revenue growth in Q3 as AI-inspired demand lifted sales. But it was not enough to lift shares, which fell on concerns about China demand tapering off.

In Q3, the tech company saw a record revenue of $18.12 billion. The revenue is up 34% from Q2. What’s more, it marks a 206% rise from a year ago.

Nvidia’s shares were slightly down (around 0.7%) in the premarket on Wednesday morning.

Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, said that “our strong growth reflects the broad industry platform transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI”.

He added that “large language model startups, consumer internet companies, and global cloud service providers were the first movers, and the next waves are starting to build. Nations and regional CSPs are investing in AI clouds to serve local demand; enterprise software companies are adding AI copilots and assistants to their platforms; and enterprises are creating custom AI to automate the world’s largest industries.”

Q3 Data Centre revenue also reached a historic high of $14.51 billion, marking 41% growth from Q2.

The data centre growth from the same time last year adds up to, once again, a record-breaking 279%.

According to Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, “the growth in its market value since Chat GPT first arrived on the scene has been astonishing. The share price has trebled, and the company is now one of a handful worth over a trillion dollars. But the investment returns have very much been powered by even more impressive growth in the underlying business.”

The company further states that the expected revenue for the year 2024 is $20.00 billion (+/- 2%).

However, Russ Mould from AJ Bell warns that these successes might put too much pressure on the company: “The downside of being a superstar company is having to continuously smash expectations.”

He added that “US chipmaker Nvidia certainly beat market forecasts for its third quarter apart from a small miss on free cash flow. However, investors want nothing short of remarkable each time the company reports, and there wasn’t enough pzazz in the announcement to drive its shares higher, at least for now as the long-term outlook is still bullish from the company’s perspective.”

Sage shares jump as small business digitalisation propels revenue higher

Software and solutions company Sage topped the FTSE 100 in early trade on Wednesday after announcing surging revenues and wider adoption of their services.

Sage shares were 7% higher at the time of writing.

Sage saw strong growth in recurring revenue, up 12% to £2.1 billion, driven by 25% growth in Sage Business Cloud to £1.6 billion. Total underlying revenue increased 10% to £2.2 billion. The company said they saw similar levels of revenue growth over the next year.

Underlying operating profit rose 18% to £456 million, with operating margin up 140 basis points to 20.9%, thanks to operating efficiencies. EBITDA also grew strongly, up 16% to £553 million, with EBITDA margin up 120 bps to 25.3%.

However, statutory operating profit declined 14% to £315 million. This reflects one-off gains on business disposals last year, as well as restructuring charges and M&A costs this year.

Underlying basic earnings per share was up 22% to 32.3 pence, demonstrating strong bottom-line growth.

“Sage performed well in FY23, delivering double-digit revenue growth, increased profitability and strong cash flows. We sustained good momentum throughout the year in all regions, driven by consistent strategic execution,” said Steve Hare, Chief Executive Officer.

“We continue to help small and mid-sized businesses succeed, providing them with the tools and expertise they need to simplify their accounting and HR processes, streamline their operations, and make more informed business decisions.  Through the Sage Network, we are delivering innovative, AI-powered services to customers, faster and more efficiently than ever before.

“Small and mid-sized businesses are continuing to digitalise, despite the macroeconomic uncertainty. We are building a resilient platform to deliver sustained, efficient growth, and I am confident that Sage is well positioned to take advantage of the market opportunity in 2024 and beyond.”

Greenroc Mining sinks to all-time lows after discounted placing

GreenRoc Mining shares sank to an all-time low on Wednesday after the Greenland-focused miner conducted a heavily discounted placing.

GreenRoc Mining has raised £460,786 through a placing of 18.4 million new shares at 2.5p per share. Participants in the placing included GreenRoc’s CEO, Chairman and an Independent Non-Executive Director.

Shares in the company were down 24% to 2.56p at the time of writing. GreenRoc shares traded as high as 4.5p in early November after the company’s float at 10p in 2021.

The proceeds will primarily be used to fund work related to GreenRoc’s Amitsoq graphite project in Greenland. This includes completing a feasibility study on building a processing plant to produce active anode material for electric vehicle batteries. The feasibility study is being supported by a £250,000 grant and is expected to finish in Q2 2024.

Additional proceeds will support the completion of environmental and social impact assessments for the Amitsoq project. These assessments will be delivered in 2024 and are required for GreenRoc to submit an application for an exploitation permit. A recent change in Greenland’s mining law allows companies to apply for this permit before submitting the final assessments, subject to their subsequent approval.

The funds will also be used for further commercial negotiations with potential partners, as well as general working capital needs.

AIM companies set to be affected by Starvest winding-up

Shareholders have voted in favour of winding up investment company Starvest (LON: SVE). That means that the AIM quotation will be cancelled on 29 November. The winding up will affect the share prices of AIM companies that Starvest has a stake in.

Greatland Gold (LON: GGP) and Ariana Resources (LON: AAU) shares will be distributed to Starvest shareholders, while the others will be sold. The sale of stakes could hamper the short-term share prices, although that may provide a buying opportunity for other investors.

It is not clear whether any of the stakes have been reduced or sold in rece...

Opportunities for Severfield in data centres and renewables

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A wide spread of sectors helped structural steel supplier Severfield (LON: SFR) improve its interim profit, even though some markets are getting tougher. Severfield has strong positions in its core markets and it has an opportunity to build on its business in Europe and India.

In the six months to September 2023, revenues were 8% lower at £215.3m, but underlying pre-tax profit improved 17% to £14.2m. This includes an unchanged contribution of £600,000 from the India joint venture, while the modular products business made a maiden profit. The interim dividend was raised 8% to 1.4p/share.

There was an underlying decrease in activity during the period, offset by the acquisition of Netherlands-based steel fabrication company Voortman Steel Construction Holding. Steel prices have fallen, and margins have improved.

Net cash fell to £400,000 at the end of September 2023, although that was after acquiring Voortman Steel Construction Holding for €24m. Advanced payments are worth £20m. However, the first half tends to be a better period of cash generation, so March 2024 net debt could be more than £25m as advanced payments unwind. The pension deficit is £11.2m.

The UK and Europe order book is worth £482m, even though the £50m contract for Hertfordshire-based film studio Sunset Studios has been delayed. The actors and writers strikes plus continuing losses for streaming companies, along with economic uncertainty, may have prompted the delay.

Distribution facilities were fuelling growth, but this area is weaker. Office building is starting to recover, while nuclear and datacentres provide growth prospects.

Another area that offers potential growth is renewables, in areas such as battery factories. There is plenty of business from this sector as long as the customers have the finance in place.

Margins improved in India, even though revenues declined. The facility in India will be expanded so that demand can be satisfied. The order book is worth £165m.

Liberum forecasts full year pre-tax profit rising from £32.5m to £34.3m. At 64.4p, the shares are trading on less than eight times prospective earnings and the yield is 5.5%.

This is being achieved under weak economic conditions and Severfield can do even better when the economy improves.

Strong base helps Calnex Solutions cope with short-term downturn

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Telecoms testing instrumentation supplier Calnex Solutions (LON: CLX) has been hit by a reduction in spending by the telecoms companies. They remain cautious, so there is no indication of a short-term recovery. Calnex Solutions is financially secure and there is underlying demand for its technology.

Calnex Solutions designs and manufactures equipment used by telecoms network operators, network providers and systems suppliers to test their products. It has broadened its customer base to include data centres, where demand is still strong, and defence.

Non-telecoms revenues make up one-quarter of total revenues. There is no pressure on pricing and the international nature of the business means that it is not dependent on any individual country. The Americas have been most impacted by the slow down of spending.

In the six months to September 2023, revenues slumped from £12.7m to £7.8m and the company moved from a pre-tax profit of £3.1m to a loss of £600,000. Trading did not pick up in September as is normally the case.

The cost base is being kept steady in expectation of a recovery, even though that may not be until the next financial year.

The strong balance sheet means that short-term dips are not a problem even though there was a large cash outflow during the period. There is still £13.5m in the bank and there is unlikely to be any significant outflow in the second half.

Management continues to invest in product development for existing and new markets. There could also be add-on acquisitions of new product areas if the opportunities arise.

Calnex Solutions raised £5m after expenses at 48p a share when it joined AIM three years ago. Trading was initially much stronger than expected. The share price briefly fell below the original placing price but has recovered to 66p.

Cavendish expects breakeven for the full year, compared with a pre-tax profit of £7.2m last year, on revenues of £17m, which are lower than in 2020-21. The continuing uncertainty means there is no forecast for 2024-25.

While the timing of any recovery is difficult to predict, Calnex Solutions still has the same long-term prospects with investment in 5G and data centres continuing for the foreseeable future.