Taylor Wimpey shares dip after completions and average sales prices fall

Taylor Wimpey shares fell on Thursday after it released a full-year trading statement that could be considered a disappointment compared to its peers.

Taylor Wimpey has reported a slight decrease in completions for 2024, with total Group completions including joint ventures slipping to 10,593, down from 10,848 in 2023.

Persimmon recently reported a 7% increase in completions in 2024.

Average private sale prices fell to £356k from £370k in the prior year. However, the company saw improved sales momentum, with its UK net private reservation rate increasing to 0.75 homes per outlet per week, up from 0.62 in 2023.

The company ended 2024 with a robust order book valued at £1,995 million, representing 7,312 homes, an increase from £1,772 million and 6,999 homes in 2023. Despite this growth, the company noted weaker pricing in Southern England, with the order book showing underlying pricing approximately 0.5% lower year on year.

In terms of land investment, Taylor Wimpey significantly increased its land approvals to around 12,000 plots in 2024, up from approximately 3,000 in 2023, partly due to increased market opportunities before the Budget. The company maintains a substantial short-term landbank of about 79,000 plots and a strategic land pipeline of roughly 136,000 potential plots.

Looking ahead to 2025, Taylor Wimpey reports encouraging early enquiries but remains cautious, noting that growth in volumes will depend on mortgage rates and their impact on affordability.

The company also warned of increased build cost pressures resulting from the recent UK Budget. Despite these challenges, Taylor Wimpey expressed confidence in the sector’s long-term fundamentals and its position to address UK housing undersupply.

“Volumes aren’t expected to ramp up massively in the near term, and there has been some softness in the average selling prices of its houses at a time when some of its peers are seeing modest rises,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Taylor Wimpey also called out that the recent UK Budget is likely to increase build costs this year, putting some pressure on margins. With the current economic uncertainty, there’s likely to be plenty of ups and downs in the short term. But for investors looking for exposure to the sector at an attractive valuation, and a nice income stream while they wait for a recovery, Taylor Wimpey looks like a strong choice.”

Share Tip: Currys – Brokers up their Target Prices for electricals retail group after its Peak Trading Update, upgrading profit estimates by 5%, shares at 91.40p, TP 170p 

Yesterday’s Update for the ten weeks to Saturday 4th January, covering the group’s Peak Trading covering the run-up to Christmas and then the New Year Sales periods, showed Currys (LON:CURY) putting on quite a strong performance. 
Certainly, the market approved, by marking the group’s shares up 11.19% on the day, with them closing up 9.17p at 91.17p. 
The dealing turnover was more than double it average volume, at some 8.27m shares traded, valuing the group at £1.05bn. 
The Business 
The company is a leading omnichannel retailer of technology products and services, operatin...

IG Group acquires Freetrade for £160m

IG Group Holdings has announced its acquisition of Freetrade, the commission-free investment platform, for £160 million.

Freetrade, launched in 2018, has grown rapidly to serve 720,000 customers with £2.5 billion in assets under administration by the end of 2024.

The acquisition aims to strengthen IG’s position in the UK trading and investments market whilst providing access to new customer segments. Some may see the £160m enterprise value paid for Freetrade as a bargain.

Freetrade has demonstrated steady growth, with revenue increasing by 32% year-on-year to £27.5 million in 2024. Freetrade’s revenue streams are well diversified across subscriptions, foreign exchange transaction fees, and interest income. The company achieved positive EBITDA for the first time in 2024, marking an important milestone in its growth trajectory.

The strategic purchase comes as the UK direct investing market continues to show strong growth at 10% compound annual growth rate with more investors taking control of their investments personally and financial literacy growing.

IG plans to operate Freetrade as a standalone business, retaining its brand and existing management team, including CEO and co-founder Viktor Nebehaj. The transaction is expected to complete in mid-2025, subject to regulatory approvals.

FTSE 100 jumps as UK inflation falls back, housebuilders soar

London’s flagship index jumped on Wednesday after UK CPI inflation fell to 2.5% in December from 2.6% in the month prior, and investors celebrated the potential impact on interest rates.

Even though inflation is still well above the 2% base rate, the simple fact that inflation halted its ascent sent a wave of optimism through UK assets after a gloomy start to the year.

UK stocks rose, bond yields fell, and the pound showed signs of stabilisation.

The FTSE 100 surged 0.7% higher, led by UK and interest rate-sensitive sectors, including housebuilders and utility companies. Even the banks joined the rally.

“A surprise pullback in the rate of inflation has given joy to investors,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“It strengthens the argument for the Bank of England to continue cutting interest rates and that’s fired up shares in housebuilders in the hope that mortgage rates will go down and more people will be able to afford to get onto the housing ladder. Banking shares jumped on the prospect of more demand in the mortgage market.

“The inflation reading has also helped to lower bond yields, with the 10-year gilt easing back a little to 4.841%, which will be welcomed with open arms by the under-fire chancellor, Rachel Reeves. However, the prospect of higher costs for companies this year still threatens to drive up inflation if they decide to raise prices, which means people’s living standards won’t suddenly improve because of today’s inflation reading.”

Although many problems still persist for the UK economy, there was little ill feeling in UK equities on Wednesday.

Barratt Redow, Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon jumped around 3%, while Howden Joinery added 3.6% in the hope lower inflation would spur building activity.

Lloyds was 3.5% as investors chose to focus on the financial health of Lloyds customer base instead of how interest rates could impact key profitability and income margins.

Diploma was the top riser, up 3.6%, after reporting organic revenue growth of 7% and maintaining full-year guidance.

There were few losers on Wednesday. Precious metals miners felt the pressure off improving sentiment while a broker downgrade hit Anglo American.

Tekcapital’s Guident appoints investment banker for IPO as the AV sector builds momentum

Tekcapital portfolio company Guident has announced the appointment of a US investment bank to conduct a private placement for the autonomous vehicle technology company ahead of a potential NASDAQ IPO later this year.

The investment bank will conduct both the private placement and the IPO raise.

“We are very pleased to have appointed an investment banker,” said Harald Braun, Executive Chairman of Guident.

“The AV industry is rapidly developing, and we believe that teleoperations is critical for the safe roll out of vehicles and robots. The adoption of autonomous vehicles globally is accelerating, and Guident welcomes the accompanying regulatory developments that put the safety of passengers and the public at the forefront of autonomous vehicle rollouts.”

Teleoperations are crucial to meeting many US states’ safety requirements, which stipulate autonomous vehicles must be able to be remotely controlled by a human operator in the case of any mishaps.

Meeting these requirements is a prerequisite to the roll-out of autonomous vehicles in states including California, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Louisiana.

Tekcapital is yet to provide any insight into Guident’s potential valuation on a successful NASDAQ listing. However, the AV sector is attracting billions in investment, with investors prepared to provide funding at rich valuations to secure a piece of exciting early-stage AV companies.

WeRide’s initial public offering, combined with a concurrent private placement, generated $458.5 million in proceeds. Meanwhile, Waymo LLC has completed its largest funding round to date, securing $5.6 billion from investors. Pony.ai raised $260m at a valuation of over $5bn.

The weight of evidence from recent transactions and the revenue multiples investors committed their cash at suggests Guident could prove to be the jewel in Tekcapital’s crown with a valuation potentially many times Tekcapital’s current market cap.

Why retail investment trust investors must vote against activist Saba Capital with Keystone’s Karen Brade

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome Karen Brade, Chair of the Keystone Positive Change Investment Trust, to discuss why retail investors must vote against opportunistic and cynical plans by Saba Capital to take control of seven investment trusts.

Saba Capital has launched an attack against seven investment trusts by requisitioning meetings in an effort to take control of the board and impose their own investment strategies.

Visit the UK Investor Magazine Investment Trust Centre here.

The trusts subject to requisition are Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income, Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust, Henderson Opportunities Trust, Herald Investment Trust, Keystone Positive Change Investment Trust and the European Smaller Companies Trust.

Karen details the steps Keystone has taken to engage with Saba Capital and the disingenuous tactics employed by the US Hedge Fund in the run-up to requisitioning the removal of investment trust boards.

We explore the potential consequences for investors if Saba is successful and the importance of retail investors voting against requisition proposals.

AIM movers: Fiinu secures first Plugin Overdraft customer and Distil sales slump

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Fintech Fiinu (LON: BANK) has signed heads of agreement for the first white-label deal for its Plugin Overdraft with a UK bank. It will provide a Banking-as-a-Service platform including Plugin Overdraft and requires regulatory approval and testing. The bank will have exclusivity in the UK for 12-months from launch, which could be in the fourth quarter of 2025. There will be royalty fees based on profit generated by the bank from the Plugin Overdraft. The share price soared 630.8% to 4.75p.

Video games distributor Frontier Developments (LON: FDEV) reported interims ahead of expectations. Revenues were 1% lower at £47.3m and it moved back into profit. Cash increased to £27.2m. Underlying pre-tax profit was £2.6m, compared with a £12.1m loss. Planet Coaster 2 generated more than £10m in revenues in its first month on sale. The forecast full year loss has been cut from £5.4m to £3.9m. The share price rebounded 25.1% to 231.5p.

GoldStone Resources (LON: GRL) continues to ramp up production at Homase mine and heap leach operation in south west Ghana. It expects to maintain a production rate of 48,000 tonnes/month of agglomerated stacked ore. Gold production should reach 1,000 ounces/month in the first quarter. The share price rose 8.51% to 1.275p.

Clean fuel technology developer Quadrise (LON: QED) says that its first licence revenues will be received by the end of January. This will come from the deal with Valkor, which has secured minimum project finance of at least $15m for a plant to produce MSAR and bioMSAR fuels. This triggers an initial $350,000 and a further $650,000 on 1 December.  There are other payments also expected. From April, Valkor has agreed to make a quarterly payment of $75,000 for services. The share price improved 8.31% to 6.65p.

FALLERS

Distil (LON: DIS) has extended its distribution partnership with Global Brands for all UK trade in its spirits brands from 15 February. The existing deal with Marussia Beverages will end. This comes after a 59% decline in revenues to £233,000 in the quarter to December 2024. Customers have been cautious in their buying and retail sales have declined. Distil is working with Global Brands to improve sales in the current quarter. The share price slumped 28.9% to 0.08p.

Cross-border payment services provider Finseta (LON: FIN) says 2024 EBITDA will be £2m compared to a forecast of £1.9m. There was £2.2m of cash generated from operating activities. The benefits from investment in the business and new products will show through in 2025. The share price declined 19.7% to 35p.

Diagnostics developer Oxford BioDynamics (LON: OBD) has raised £7m at 0.5p/share a retail offer could raise a further £500,000. The cash will finance the commercial development of the EpiSwitch product line. There will be a focus on partnerships and licensing deals. There will be a restructuring of the company to make the cash last longer. The fundraising is dependent on a capital restructuring to reduce the nominal value of shares from 1p to 0.1p, so that the shares can be issued at 0.5p each. The cash should last 12 months. The share price fell 4.5% to 0.573p.

Telecoms infrastructure products developer Filtronic (LON: FTC) has appointed David Marshall as director of programmes to ensure their efficient delivery. Sarah Shaw becomes General Counsel to manage commercial contracts and other legal affairs. This follows yesterday’s positive trading statement that led to Cavendish upgrading its 2024-25 pre-tax profit forecast from £9.6m to £11.5m. The share price dipped 2.45% to 99.5p, but it is still more than 10% higher this week.

Vistry shares surge as revised profit guidance reaffirmed

Vistry shares rose on Wednesday after the house builder said they were on track to meet recently reduced profit guidance, providing hope that the worst of the cost miscalculation saga is behind them. 

Stripping out the impact of provisions for underestimating the costs at a number of their sites, Vistry had a fairly reasonable year. Completions are set to rise 7% to 17,200, and revenues are projected to increase 9% to £4.4bn.

However, the problems with Vistry haven’t been the sales; it’s been with the management of costs that investors will still have reservations about despite the upbeat assessment of sales and completion activities.

“After delivering three consecutive profit downgrades in the three months prior, Vistry has finally broken its streak of bad news. The trading update wraps up a truly disastrous 2024 for the group, where despite new home completions and revenue rising, profits have been on a downward spiral,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“That’s largely down to the group’s strategy shift to a Partnerships-only model, where it teams up with local authorities and housing associations.”

“These partners foot most of the bill, freeing up Vistry to deploy its cash on more projects. That’s seen the group chase faster-than-average growth, but a series of managerial missteps and accounting issues that have led to profit downgrades have raised serious questions about the new structure and internal controls.”

UK inflation falls throwing Reeves a lifeline

UK inflation fell to 2.5% in December as service inflation fell amid a cooling of the economy just as the media started questioning how long Rachel Reeves has left before Starmer gives her the boot.

The chancellor has been thrown a lifeline in the form of falling inflation, which will help settle financial markets and ease the pressure on government debt.

The reading of 2.5% CPI inflation in December is a reduction from 2.6% in November.

“Policymakers and treasury officials will be breathing a small sigh of relief as new data shows that inflation fell during the final month of 2024, beating market expectations,” said Scott Gardner, investment strategist at Nutmeg.

“While it might be odd to be welcoming above target inflation, these results have grown in significance after an unstable start to the year for the pound and government borrowing. In the lead up to this release, it was clear that markets could not afford any surprises after a troubling period which saw UK assets hit by fears of low economic growth and persistent inflation. This data will hopefully allay some of those concerns.”

Interest rate traders quickly priced in more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year, which followed through into a rally in interest rate-sensitive equities in early trade.

Falling core inflation, one of the most closely watched metrics by the Bank of England, alleviated some fears UK borrowing rates would remain elevated for most of this year.

“Most importantly for the BoE, core CPI fell and services inflation cooled down to lowest since March 2022,” said Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst at investment platform eToro.

Share Tip: Hunting – Brokers still looking for sales and profits to advance this year and next, making the shares very good value, brokers looking for 600p against current 345p 

Yesterday morning Hunting (LON:HTG) issued its Trading Update for the year to end-December 2024 – it was very well received in the market, with investors taking its shares up 52p to 352.50p at one stage, before ending the day at 345p. 
So that already shows a good performance from the feature made last Friday when the shares were 303.50p – much as predicted in being a pivotal price move. 
The £550m capitalised precision engineering group noted that trading in Q4 2024 had remained in line with management's expectations and with the guidance issued in October 2024, with EBITDA anticipa...