Shell shares rise as profits beats expections, fresh buy back announced

Shell shares rose on Thursday after the oil majors released Q3 earnings and announced a fresh $3.5 billion share buyback.

Shell was one of the few FTSE 100 gainers after its Q3 results revealed better-than-expected profits across its fossil-fuel-focused business units.

Perhaps the biggest influence on shares was the expansion of their share buyback programme.

Nick Purves, Fund Manager of the Temple Bar Investment Trust, recently discussed the attractions of Shell’s buybacks on the UK Investor Magazine Podcast. Nick Purves explained that the long-term trend of buying back shares underpinned their investment case and was an integral element in Shell’s place as the trust’s top holding.

The broader market evidently shares this sentiment, and Shell’s shares rose 1% in early trade on Thursday despite the broad losses of the FTSE 100.

“Shell’s delivered a significant third-quarter beat driven by better-than-expected results in all division bar renewables,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“That’s given management the confidence to push the button on a $3.5bn buyback, marking the twelfth consecutive quarter where plans to repurchase $3bn or more have been announced. That’s impressive stuff in the context of weak commodity prices and industry-wide pressures on refining margins.”

Despite weakness in fossil fuel prices, Shell remains a cash-generating machine, producing $10.8bn free cash flow in Q3 2024 compared to $7.5bn in the same period a year ago.

“At the same time, Shell’s still managing to shrink its net debt pile, paving the way for further shareholder distributions. With capital expenditure now set to come in below guidance for 2024, investors will be paying close attention to Shell’s capital allocation plans for 2025 when full-year results are announced,” Nathan said.

“Integrated Gas and Upstream remain the key profit drivers and whilst the range of outcomes for production in the fourth quarter is a little wide, the short-term outlook looks broadly stable. Looking further ahead, plans to develop new fields as well as upgrade existing assets in the Gulf of Mexico should help keep production moving in the right direction. Shell’s financial discipline is highly impressive, and for now, it seems to be finding the right balance between rewarding shareholders and investing in growth. But any further pullback in investment spend could raise some questions on the group’s ability to future-proof the business.”

MicroSalt’s Low Sodium Revolution and Leading the Safety Smart Eyewear Market with Tekcapital

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to welcome Clifford Gross, CEO of Tekcapital, back to the Podcast for a run-through of the latest developments for portfolio companies.

We welcomed Clifford to the Podcast just a couple of weeks ago to catch up on recent progress. However, after sharp moves this week in Innovative Eyewear and MicroSalt, we asked Clifford back on the podcast to provide further details about the factors driving the share reratings.

We discuss the broad adoption of low-sodium products and the tailwinds for MicroSalt. We finish by running through Innovative Eyewear’s latest launch: safety smart eyewear.

Autumn Budget 2024 Highlights

The long-awaited budget that threatened to stifle UK growth and entrepreneurial aspiration has been delivered. 

Coverage in the run-up to the budget was punctuated by concerns about tax changes and fears that Labour would damage the investment community and the ‘non-working’ person, whoever they might be. 

These fears have been realised in a raft of measures constituting a tax raid on the UK’s risk-takers responsible for driving the economy. 

We present the highlights below.

Tax

In total, this budget increased taxes by £40bn.

Labour has targeted higher earners, investors, and entrepreneurs by increasing Capital Gains Tax, modifying tax relief on AIM shares, and bringing pensions into inheritance tax. The non-dom tax status will be abolished from April 2025.

Capital Gains Tax

Investors are being punished by an increase in Capital Gains Tax from 10% to 18% for the lower rate and up to 24% for the higher rate.

“The change is a blow for investors. This could have been worse, with suggestions of a doubling of the rate, but it’s scant consolation for anyone hit with a bigger tax bill,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“This doesn’t just affect those who are hit with a far bigger bill, it also makes investment less attractive for newcomers who don’t want to have to get to grips with a new tax risk. Already far fewer people in the UK invest than elsewhere in the world, and this could compound the problem. For existing investors, there’s a danger this will drive investor behaviour, and people will focus on tax considerations, rather than the investments that make the most sense for their circumstances. There’s also a danger they may hoard the assets – possibly until their death.”

Inheritance Tax

Those who have saved all their life to pass on the reward of their hard work will now pay more to the government. As asset prices rise, more people will be dragged into paying the tax with thresholds frozen until 2030.

Pensions will now be subject to IHT under new rules.

“It is good to have clarity on Inheritance Tax nil rate band (NRB) continued freeze, although this will bite as more estates fall into the IHT brackets. The exposure of inherited pensions to IHT will reduce the attractiveness of pensions as a wealth transfer tool,  changing the landscape for pensions,” said Craig Ritchie, Partner at GSB Wealth.

Business tax

National Insurance for Employers will be increased to 1.2% and the threshold will be lowered to £5m. Offering some form of positivity, corporation tax will be frozen.

“The UK stock market has lost many great companies in recent years. Some have been bought out by overseas buyers who were taking advantage of weak sterling and an out-of-favour-market,” said Rachel Winter, Partner at Killik & Co.

“Others have moved abroad voluntarily, seeking access to greater numbers of investors and more business-friendly environments. While today’s increase in employer NI contributions is a blow, the freezing of corporation tax rates is welcome news. The FTSE 250, which is a much more UK-focused index than the FTSE 100, has risen during the Budget speech.”

AIM shares

In the run-up to the Budget, potential changes to the tax treatment of shares with business property relief have rocked London’s AIM market. The chancellor has targeted AIM by implementing a 50% inheritance tax relief instead of the complete abolishment some feared. The AIM market soared on the news.

“London has long been a hotbed for exciting companies seeking to raise capital and scale their companies. By announcing 50% IHT relief for AIM shares instead of altogether abolishing relief, the government has signalled its intention to make the UK a favoured destination for global growth companies to list,” said Dr Clifford Gross, CEO of Tekcapital.

“Fears of damaging changes to the tax incentives available to AIM companies have proved overblown. Despite tax incentives encouraging estate-planning investors to invest in AIM companies, good quality growth companies will attract investor pounds over time, enabling them to maximise their potential.”

Housing and Construction

Labour announced several measures in the run-up to the budget, one of which was £500m for social housing, part of a broader £5bn package for housebuilding.

Housebuilding shares liked the news with Persimmon, Vistry and Barratt Redrow rallying on the news.

Vistry, who works closely with housing associations, rallied over 3%.

“Support for social and affordable housing is vital if the government is to achieve its target of building 1.5 million homes during this parliament,” said Kevin Limn, CEO of Adsure Services.

EIS & VCTs

Good news for the venture capital industry. The chancellor has committed to EIS and VCTs until at least 2035. EIS incentivises investors to invest in early-stage companies, including 30% income tax relief and complete relief on IHT and CGT if held for three years.

Wages

As announced before the Budget, Labour will increase the minimum wage by 6.7%. to £12.21 per hour for over 21s.

Growth

The UK economy is expected to grow 1.1% in 2024, faster than predicted.

Post Office scandal

The chancellor has set aside over £1.8bn to compensate those impacted by the Post Office software scandal and £11.8bn for victims of the infected blood scandal.

AIM movers: Earnings enhancing purchase for Nexus Infrastructure and positive news from Tekcapital investee companies

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MicroSalt (LON: SALT) has received an initial purchase order for 50,000lbs from a major food and drink manufacturer for one of its product lines. Annualised volumes should be 200,000lbs and there could be orders for two other products. There is also a follow-on order from a B2B customer and the 63,860lbs will be delivered in January. Two other B2B orders have been won. The share price soared 39.1% to 64p. Tekcapital (LON: TEK) owns 69% of MicroSalt. Another investee company Innovative Eyewear has launched the first ANSI-certified smart safety glasses for all-day wear under the Lucyd®, Nautica®, Eddie Bauer® and Reebok® brands. The Tekcapital share price rose 12.9% to 8.75p.

Payments technology developer Eckoh (LON: ECK) is recommending a 54p/share bid from funds managed by Bridgepoint Advisers II. The share price jumped by one-quarter to 52.5p. The bid values Eckoh at £169.3m. The share price has not been at that level since the end of 2022, but it is the price indicated back in August. The bid values Eckoh at 20 times prospective 2025-26 earnings.

Digital health services provider Induction Healthcare (LON: INHC) has secured a contract worth £1.5m to improve patient access to diagnostic tests for the North Central London Integrated Care System. It will enable integrated referrals and smart scheduling. The interims will be published on 5 November.The share price recovered 13.3% to 8.5p.

ValiRx (LON: VAL) has signed an amendment to the letter of intent with TheoremRx Inc for the sub-licensing of cancer treatment VAL201 with the exclusivity period extended to the end of 2024 in exchange for a 0.5% stake in TheoremRX after it reverses into a shell. The share price improved 6.25% to 1.7p.

FALLERS

Medical materials developer RUA Life Sciences (LON: RUA) doubled contract manufacturing sales in the six months to September 2024 and overall revenues were 87% ahead at £1.5m. The Abiss acquisition did not make a contribution in the first half. A £900,000 acquisition gain should lead to an interim pre-profit of £400,000, compared with a £1.4m loss previously. The year-end is being changed to September. The share price declined 13.7% to 11p.

Nexus Infrastructure (LON: NEXS) is spending some of its cash pile on Coleman Construction & Utilities, which is involved in civil engineering for water and marine sectors. This diversifies the business away from housebuilding infrastructure. The purchase will cost up to £4.4m and be immediately earnings enhancing – EBITDA was £700,000 last year. Trading is in line with expectations and the loss should be halved to £2.4m in the year to September 2024. A small loss is still expected this year. The share price is 3.85% lower at 125p.

Tlou Energy (LON: TLOU), which plans to leave AIM to save money, reports a first quarter update indicating progress with the Lesedi CBM gas-to-power project in Botswana. First electricity sales are expected in the middle of next year. There was an operating cash outflow of A$800,000, plus A$1.7m of capital investment in the period. The share price fell a further 2.17% to 0.0675p, having been 0.063p at the start of the day.

Katoro Gold (LON: KAT) reduced its interim loss from £311,000 to £207,000 thanks to a reduction in administrative costs. There was £250,000 in cash at the end of June 2024. Katoro Gold has acquired the White Pine uranium project in Ontario. Management believes that there will be other opportunities as junior miners run short of funds. The share price slipped 3.85% to 0.0625p.

Next increases guidance again as online sales build momentum

Next is making a habit of increasing its profit guidance. Strong online sales in the third quarter were the driving force for the most recent upgrade to profits, which are now expected to exceed £1bn for the full year period.

The retailer is proving to be a sales growth juggernaut, with total full-price sales increasing 7.6% between August and October. Next, traditionally known for the queues of people eager for a bargain outside their stores on Boxing Day, are now enjoying the highest sales growth rates in the online arena.

Next’s UK online sales grew 7.9% during the period compared to only 2.9% growth in traditional retail sales.

Investors were clearly pleased with the news, and Next shares were 2% higher at the time of writing. This adds to a sterling run for Next shares this year, which has seen an appreciation of 26% year to date.

“Next extended its hot streak of positive results as profit guidance was nudged higher yet again, just six weeks after the last upgrade,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The early arrival of cold weather this year is being thanked for helping to deliver better-than-expected full-price sales across September and early October, as consumers scramble to update their winter wardrobe. That tailwind’s expected to continue into the fourth quarter and keep boosting sales.

“Skyrocketing demand in its online channel remains a running theme, but it was pleasing to see retail sales return to growth in the period too. Looking forward, the online channel is likely to remain the main growth driver. It already brings in more than half of the group’s sales, and expansion overseas is still in its infancy. Around 90% of overseas business currently comes from Europe and the Middle East, both of which can be serviced quickly and cheaply from the UK. Given the untapped size of these markets, and increased traction in new markets, there’s a big opportunity if Next can execute its expansion plans well.”

Next will be one of the first retailers to announce festive trading, with sales up to 28th December pencilled in to be released 7th January.

MicroSalt shares soar after announcing bumper new and follow-on low-sodium salt orders

MicroSalt shares soared in early trade on Wednesday after the food technology made a landmark announcement regarding the progress of its B2B business and partnerships with some of the world’s largest food manufacturing companies.

MicroSalt has announced game-changing orders and commitments for their low-sodium salt, including fresh orders for new product lines and repeat orders by a major food manufacturer.

MicroSalt’s New Initial Orders

In a statement released on Wednesday, the company said it had received an initial order for 50,000 lbs of their salt, equivalent to 22 metric tonnes.

The company has not revealed the specific products or customers, but the order size infers MicroSalt is now an integral part of a globally recognised product line.

“We are very excited to have received a significant new initial order for MicroSalt to replace traditional salt in a major product line, adding to product lines previously launched with a globally recognised customer,” said Rick Guiney, CEO of MicroSalt.

As a hypothetical example of the sheer scale of the new order, we ran the numbers using the salt content of crisps, one of the UK’s most loved snack foods.

A 25g packet of Walkers Ready Salted Crisps contains 0.34g of salt. A Sainsbury’s own brand 25g packet of prawn cocktail crisps contains 0.27g of salt while salt & vinegar crisps contain 0.40g.

If we take the average of these three crisp products, we can very roughly conclude that the average 25g packet of crisps has 0.33g of salt.

Should MicroSalt have sold the 50,000 lbs of salt to a crisp manufacturer, they would have enough salt to make over 68 million packets of crisps. To put that into context, the UK is estimated to consume 8 billion packets of crisps per year. And that’s by just 70 million in the UK. 

We use crisps as an example because MicroSalt didn’t share the exact manufacturer or product, presumably because the food manufacturer who made the order wants to keep their solution to reducing sodium content in their products under wraps. MicroSalt has previously alluded to working with snack food companies, so crisps represent a sensible assumption.

The sale could have been to a bread manufacturer,  a pretzel maker, or even a producer of microwave meals.

While we don’t know the exact end product or partner who made the order, we can reasonably assume whoever made the order is a serious food manufacturer. 

Coincidentally, if the order were for bread rolls, the order would be enough to produce 36 million rolls, using the salt content of Waitrose floured baps as an example. 

These are very rough assumptions and don’t consider any wastage during manufacturing or whether the same amount of MicroSalt salt and traditional salt is used.

That said, food manufacturers don’t make this sized order as a test, regardless of the end product. 

The scale of the initial order, and the annualised projection, would suggest one of the world’s leading food manufacturers has reformulated one or more major lines to include MicroSalt, which is now ingrained in the manufacturing process.

MicroSalt has previously said it was engaged in testing with major food producers. Today’s announcement confirms these tests were successful.

If a major food manufacturer has reformulated a product line to include MicroSalt, they could work it into other products. If one major food manufacturer has included MicroSalt in their product, there’s a reasonable chance others will follow suit. 

Today’s announcement provides evidence for this. MicroSalt’s Mexican partner is making repeat orders, and the firm’s low-sodium salt will soon be used in cereals, spice mixes, and energy bar products.

“Based on our ongoing discussions and the progress to date, we are also looking forward to the addition of Microsalt to other well-known product lines for this customer,” Guiney explained.

“Our progress within the spice and ingredient community as well as the successful efforts put forth at the SIAL event in Paris last week, is evidence that the hard work put in by the Microsalt team is bearing fruit globally.”

While the new initial orders demonstrate wider market adoption, news that one of MicroSalt’s first sizeable customers is continuing to purchase salt at an annualised rate of 640,000 lbs is probably the most significant takeaway from today’s announcement.

This is enough salt to supply multiple lines of the world’s most popular products.

MicroSalt shares have reacted accordingly, soaring over 40% in early trade.

Share Tip: Filtronic – Two Years Ago This Tech Group Was On 535 Times Earnings, Last Year 54 Times, Now On Just 19.7 Times – That Is What Growth Is All About – Not To Be Missed 

At 11am on Thursday morning (31st October) this very interesting business will be holding its AGM in Sedgefield, County Durham – I would just love to be there and have a look around the various plant and premises – why? 
The simple answer to that is that I consider Filtronics (LON:FTC) to be a growth winner over the next few years. 
The £145m capitalised group is a designer and manufacturer of products for the aerospace, defence, space and telecoms infrastructure markets. 
As a trusted provider of innovative RF solutions, it is currently working with BAE Systems, ESA, QinetiQ, S...

Tekcapital’s Innovative Eyewear soars on launch of smart eyewear safety range

Tekcapital portfolio company Innovative Eyewear has rocketed higher in US trade after the smart eyewear company announced the launch of its safety eyewear range, opening the doors to entirely new sectors in industry, manufacturing and construction.

The new product represents the first-ever ANSI Z87.1-certified smart safety eyewear that combines industrial-grade protection with advanced technological features.

The smart safety eyewear integrates ChatGPT capabilities, adaptive light-sensitive lenses, and walkie-talkie functionality into a lightweight, prescription-compatible design.

Built for diverse professional environments, including construction, healthcare, and logistics, Lucyd Armor features an impressive 8-hour battery life and employs Bluetooth 5.3 technology. The design includes patent-pending touch controls specifically engineered for use with gloves or wet hands alongside AI-powered noise-reduction microphones for clear communication in noisy environments.

Innovative Eyewear have clearly taken into consideration the demands of the end market and built in photochromic lenses with anti-fog and anti-scratch coatings come standard, while an open-ear audio system allows workers to maintain environmental awareness while accessing AI assistance or communication functions.

The product’s integration with multiple AI assistants, including ChatGPT, Siri, and Google Voice, positions it as a potential game-changer in workplace safety and productivity enhancement.

These features could make Innovative Eyewear’s products an essential tool for workers, providing the smart eyewear company with additional revenue streams.

Investors welcomed the development, with Innovative Eyewear shares rising 33% in US early trade.

“Lucyd Armor sets a new standard in protective eyewear,” said Harrison Gross, CEO of Innovative Eyewear, Inc.

“We’ve combined cutting-edge technology with rigorous safety standards to offer professionals a smarter, more efficient way to stay protected on the job. This launch reflects our vision to lead the evolution of wearable tech in industries where safety and performance go hand in hand. It’s time to Upgrade Your Eyewear® with Lucyd Armor™ – there is nothing quite like it for working men and women.”

FTSE 100 flat as HSBC beats expectations

The FTSE 100 was helped higher by strong results released by HSBC on Tuesday as investors geared up for tomorrow’s budget and the announcement of a raft of measures that could have significant implications for the UK economy and stock market.

London’s flagship index carved a gain in early trade, with China-focused stocks piggybacking on HSBC’s upbeat results and investors preparing for US earnings from major technology companies.

“The FTSE 100 ticked higher on Tuesday, helped by some positive corporate results as investors await earnings updates from the US tech sector and tomorrow’s Budget,” said AJ Bell head of financial analysis Danni Hewson.

“A huge chunk of the S&P 500 are reporting this week including five of the Magnificent Seven, so investors will get an excellent sense of the overall shape of the US third-quarter earnings season over the next few days. Although any market focus on earnings will rapidly be diverted to next week’s presidential election and Federal Reserve meeting.

“In London, positive numbers from HSBC helped lift other Asia-focused financials like Standard Chartered and Prudential.”

Despite starting the session on the front foot, the FTSE 100’s gains ebbed as the session progressed and was trading almost flat at the time of writing.

A 2% drop in BP shares offset strength elsewhere after the oil major revealed its worst quarterly earnings report in nearly four years.

“Refining margins continue to be a thorn in bp’s side, being the key driver in the $1bn fall in third-quarter underlying replacement cost profit,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The knock-on effect on cash flow, as well as increasing investment spend, saw net debt tick up to $24.3bn. However, bp is holding its nerve, upping the dividend from 7.27c to 8.0c and releasing another $1.75bn to buy more of its own shares, which are down 24% over the last six months.”

Budget

Investors will be all too aware of tomorrow’s budget and the implications for UK equities. Given the potential risks to the UK stock market, UK shares are relatively muted. There is an argument traders have already priced in any potential measures given the newsflow around the budget and predictions of tax changes for investors and businesses.

“Retail investors are bracing themselves ahead of what is widely expected to be one of the most significant Budget days of recent years. Rachel Reeves has had only a few months to determine the magnitude of the UK’s fiscal challenges, let alone work out the measures needed to correct the course and enable the new Government to start to execute its plans,” said Steve Clayton, head of equity funds, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Changes to pensions, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and employers NI have all been mooted in the press. Tomorrow we find out the reality of it all. The headline numbers look likely to be big, with estimates of the sums needing to be raised having risen to as much as £40bn.”

AIM movers: YouGov trading better than expected and IQE boss leaves

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YouGov (LON: YOU) annual pre-tax profit was slightly better than expected, although it fell 21% to £45m due to higher staff and technology costs. However, the auditor has requested more time to complete the audit, so this is an unaudited figure. There was underlying revenue growth of 3%. Annualised cost savings of £20m are being made and 70% will be achieved in the current financial year. Trading has not picked up, but this could happen in the second quarter. This year’s profit will be second half weighted. The share price is recovered 11.8% to 445p.

Alba Mineral Resources (LON: ALBA) is continuing blasting at the Clogau St David’s mine in North Wales. The volume of ore found in situ at levels four and five from historic mining operations has exceeded expectations. Around 25 tonnes of ore has been extracted, which will be processed. A limited number of commemorative coins will be auctioned. The operational timetable is being extended due to delays relating to extracting the ore. The share price is 11.1% higher at 0.05p.

Oracle Power (LON: ORCP) has completed a ground-based gravity survey at the Blue Rock Valley copper and silver project in Western Australia. Multiple gravity highs have been identified for potential drilling. The company is assessing drill targets. The share price improved 8.82% to 0.0185p.

Construction dispute and expert witness services provider Diales (LON: DIAL) says that there will be a small improvement in revenues and profit in the year to September 2024. Pre-tax profit will be at least £1.1m, up from £1m. The cost base has been reduced. Net cash is £4.3m. Diales is pulling out of the US. It will still have a Canadian operation, and South America is handled from Spain. The share price increased 7.69% to 28p – the highest level since February

FALLERS

IQE (LON: IQE) chief executive Americo Lemos is leaving the semiconductor wafer manufacturer after three years in the role and Mark Cubitt becomes executive chair. Finance director Jutta Meier will become interim chief executive. The focus will be on cash generation and the proposed flotation of the business in Taiwan next year. The share price dipped 16.4% to 12.21p.

Translation and IP services provider RWS (LON: RWS) says it returned to growth in the second half making up for the first half decline. The 2023-24 pre-tax profit will be around £112m. Net debt was £14m at the end of September 2024. The full year results will be published on 12 December. There should be modest organic growth in revenues this year. The share price declined 17.4% to 131.5p.

Shield Therapeutics (LON: STX) generated $7.2m from 43,500 ACCRUFeR prescriptions in the third quarter, which was slightly lower than forecast. The average net selling price is $167, and this could rise to $192 in the fourth quarter. Total nine-month revenues are $20m and the 2024 figure should hit $31.5m. Management admits that more cash will be required, and costs are being reduced. Sallyport is providing a $15m facility, up from $10m previously, and AOP Health has agreed to subscribe $10m for shares at 4p each.  The share price slipped 14.5% to 3.25p.

Mobile data computing services provider Touchstar (LON: TST) says trading is below expectations. Orders are taking longer to convert, and one major deal has been delayed until 2025. The strategic review is continuing. The share price fell 11.9% to 92.5p.