abrdn Asian Income Fund provides a respectable yield with plentiful capital appreciation potential

abrdn Asian Income Fund takes an unconstrained view of Asian equities by investing in high-quality equities without being tied to any specific benchmark.

Of course, the trust benchmarks its performance to a broad index, the Morningstar IT Asia Pacific Equity Income Index. However, performance comparison is where the managers limit references to broader indices. It does not play a significant part in asset allocation.

The investment approach seeks out high-quality companies with reliable yields while ensuring each investment is made at a sensible valuation. Inherently, this strategy provides investors with a higher yield and less volatility than other Asian or emerging markets funds.

Although the trust is focused on Asia, the strategy must not be confused with an emerging market mandate. The trust invests in developed Asia Pacific markets, including Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore, while providing exposure to Taiwan and South Korea.

The abrdn Asian Income Fund is largely equally weighted towards cyclical and sensitive sectors, with 43.67% in cyclical and 51.74% in sensitive sectors, including energy, communications and technology.

This approach to sector allocation exposes the trust to underlying growth in Asian markets, which tend to move more quickly than developed markets in reaction to changes in underlying growth, but limits volatility by focusing on established names with a lower risk profile.

For example, the portfolio is underweight the risky and low-yielding Chinese equities prominent in the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.

In an underwhelming year for Asian equities dogged by Chinese concerns in 2023, the trust’s NAV grew 2.5% compared to a 1.6% return for the index. The dividend grew by 11.75% to 11.75p from 10p over this period.

The top ten holdings include high-quality Asia-Pacific names such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Samsung Electronics, Power Grid Corp Of India, and, interestingly, miner BHP Group.

Focusing on high-quality companies has allowed the trust to increase dividend payouts consistently over the past year to yield 5.5%. Given the strong track record of dividend hikes, one would expect the trust to live up to its income mandate and continue to increase shareholder return in the years to come.

Capital growth

The trust’s capital appreciation attraction has two core pillars. First, the trust trades at an 11% discount to NAV, which presents opportunities for this discount to narrow over time. Additionally, and arguably most importantly, Asian equities are substantially undervalued compared to developed market equities, particularly the US.

A higher interest rate environment naturally pulled capital into the relative safety of US and European assets at the detriment to emerging markets. Should history be a reliable indicator, one would expect capital to flow back into emerging markets as developed market interest rates fall.

When these flows are coupled with arbdn Asian Income Fund’s unconstrained approach to high-quality, reliable income plays, the result will likley be both capital appreciation and measured income.

AIM movers: Potential cash return by Orchard Funding and Active Energy to sell CoalSwitch

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Insurance premium finance provider Orchard Funding Group (LON: ORCH) increased lending and revenues in the six months to January 2024. However, pre-tax profit fell 14% to £1.08m because of higher impairment provisions related to fraudulent credit agreements. The NAV is 83p/share. The board is reviewing whether the company should remain on AIM and a possible cash distribution to shareholders. The share price recovered 31.3% to 21p.

Pantheon Resources (LON: PANR) says consultancy Netherland Sewell & Associates has increased its best estimate resource for the 100% owned Kodiak field by one-quarter to 1,208 million barrels of recoverable liquids. The best estimate contingent gas potential is 5.4tcf of recoverable gas. The share price jumped 22.2% to 41.85p – the highest level since March 2023.

The sharp increase in trading in the shares in Cornish minerals company Tungsten West (LON: TUN) is continuing this week. In the past few days there have been the largest numbers of shares traded on individual days since flotation in 2021. The share price rose a further 11.8% to 6.15p.

Cosmetics supplier Warpaint London (LON: W7L) says trading continues to outperform expectations. First quarter sales are 28% higher at £23.5m. This has been achieved by adding stores and broadening the range and there has been no price rise since early 2022. Margins have also improved. Shore believes that its current pre-tax profit forecast of £19.1m for 2024 is likely to be 10% too low. The broker will not upgrade its forecast until the 2023 results are published on 24 April. The share price increased 11.7% to 419p.

Helium explorer Helix Exploration (LON: HEX) debuted on AIM this morning. It has leases in Montana, where there are known helium resources. Appraisal drilling is expected to commence in the second quarter of this year, assuming the permit is obtained, and management believes that there is a strong chance of commercially producing helium by the end of 2025. The fundraising was oversubscribed, so there is enough cash to get to production plus additional cash to invest in other potential helium reservoirs on the leases acquired. The placing price was 10p and the shares opened at 12p before falling to 10.125p.

FALLERS

Active Energy Group (LON: AEG) has been reviewing its operations and how to secure funding. It believes it cannot raise the cash it requires to construct a CoalSwitch biomass fuel plant and commence production. A buyer is being sought for the CoalSwitch assets. If that happens, then the company would become a shell. The share price slumped 35% to 0.325p.

First quarter revenues at carbon brake technology developer Surface Transforms (LON: SCE) were £3m, which was lower than target. However, production yields improved in March when revenues were £1.5m. Revised delivery schedules have been agreed. Cavendish has raised its 2024 forecast loss to £3m because of higher scrappage costs and there are likely to be higher working capital requirements. There should still be net cash at the end of 2024. The share price continued its slide and is down 27% to 6.75p – the lowest level for around a decade.

CleanTech Lithium (LON: CTL) chief executive Aldo Boitano entered into a loan agreement with his shareholding in the company as security in August 2023. He has transferred his 9.4 million shares to a custodian account nominated by the lender. This was not revealed at the time. The chief executive has been suspended because of this and an investigation has started. It is unclear if any of the shares have been sold. The share price declined 18.6% to 12p.

Consumer healthcare products supplier Venture Life (LON: VLG) increased 2023 revenues by 17% to £51.4m and pre-tax profit improved from £5.6m to £7.3m. Earnings rose from 4.1p/share to 5.3p/share. Plans to increase marketing spending have led to a reduction in forecast 2024 earnings from 6.4p/share to 5.5p/share. The share price fell 6.37% to 36.75p.

Tekcapital shares rise after Guident announces entry into robotics market

Tekcapital shares were firmly higher on Tuesday after it announced portfolio company Guidant had entered the robotics safety market through a partnership with Star Robotics.

The move has diversified Guident’s applications beyond autonomous vehicles into other real-world uses with a large and growing addressable market.

Star Robotics has developed the “Watchbot” robotics designed to carry out surveillance and industrial inspection tasks. Guident will integrate its human-in-the-loop Remote Monitor and Control Center (RMCC) solution with Star’s surveillance technology to provide autonomous security and safety as the robots conduct normal activities.

Tekcapital shares were 7% higher at the time of writing.

“Since establishing our strategic partnership, we have been delighted to collaborate with the Star Robotics team on several projects. With their relentless focus on pushing the boundaries of possibility, Star Robotics is poised to transform the way industries harness the power of robotics to drive efficiency, productivity, and success,” said Harald Braun, Executive Chairman and CEO at Guident.

The partnership is a natural progression for both Guident and Star Robotics as the two companies expand their operations and break new ground in their respective, yet complimentary, fields.

“We are thrilled to join forces with Guident, a leader in Autonomous Vehicle (AV) teleoperation monitoring industry, to introduce a security surveillance robot equipped with human-in-the-loop capabilities. This groundbreaking collaboration marks a pivotal moment in advancing safety and innovation in autonomous technology. We couldn’t be more excited to pioneer this revolutionary solution, setting a new standard for the industry.” stated Yamila Feccia, Chief Commercial Officer at Star Robotics. 

Christie Group – get ready to bid up for this recovering group’s shares

Don’t worry about the awful figures about to be reported for 2023 by this £24.5m valued business, because recovery is now well underway for this year.
Within the next few weeks, we should be seeing the announcement of the 2023 results from this professional services group.
Its shares now look ready for a strong recovery in price.
Last Year Was Not Good
We already know that the Christie Group (LON:CTG), last year saw delays in contractual exchanges that impacted ongoing transactions in its agency and advisory business, hitting its 2023 results.
That slowdown also reflected lower activity levels...

FTSE 100 ticks higher ahead of central bank action

The FTSE 100 started the week in a holding pattern as investors digested a blowout Non-Farm Payrolls reading on Friday and braced for more data in the week ahead.

The benign trading conditions on Monday were reflective of a busy week for central banks. The Fed minutes are due for release on Wednesday, and the ECB will decide on rates on Thursday. In addition, traders will be delivered the latest US CPI, which could have huge ramifications for stocks.

Interest rate concerns have again crept in, with central banks suggesting they are no closer to cutting rates. Major economic indicators in the US, UK and some European countries suggest underlying resilience amid higher rates. In short, traders are concerned the economy is too strong to justify central banks cutting rates.

At the beginning of a trading week that is likley to be driven by macroeconomic events, the FTSE 100 was trading at 7,924, up 1.7%.

“Markets have taken a moment to reflect on last week’s barrage of data points which caught people by surprise,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“With little on the corporate reporting agenda and many people enjoying annual leave during the Easter school holiday, the pause has come just at the right time. It provides an opportunity to weigh up what’s really going on and what could happen next.

“In a nutshell, we’ve had hotter than expected jobs data and an oil price that has been sneaking higher, implying that the economy is resilient despite higher interest rates while at the same time sounding an alarm that the pace of inflation could speed up, due to the respective forces. That certainly gives the Federal Reserve a lot to think about – indeed, it strengthens the argument for rates to remain at their current level for a lot longer.”

Unsurprisingly, there were few major movers on Monday, and the top fallers and gainers continued recent trends.

The shakeup at Entain is continuing to support its shares which were 5.1% higher at the time of writing. Entain was the FTSE 100 top riser.

Momentum in building in mining stocks. After a buoyant week last week, Rio Tinto, Glencore, and Anglo American had another good showing on Monday as commodities ticked higher.

Profit-taking in Marks & Spencer persisted for a second day, and shares fell 2.5%.

Higher interest rates are not great for Ocado shares and growing interest rate concerns fed directly into another 2.4% decline on Monday.

AIM movers: Bango share price recovers and Bens Creek financial problems

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David and Monique Newlands have reduced their stake in Byotrol (LON: BYOT) to below 3% ahead of the cancelation of the AIM quotation. The share price rose by one-third to 0.1p.

In-content advertising company Mirriad Advertising (LON: MIRI) has entered a strategic agreement with TripleLift Inc, which has a supply-side platform for advertising formats. The platform will be used for automated selling of in-content advertising slots from Mirriad’s partners into media buying platforms, which can buy slots for their clients. The share price improved 22.9% to 2.15p.

Cora Gold (LON: CORA) is about to start drilling at the Madina Foulbe gold permit in the Keneiba project area in east Senegal. The drilling should be completed in May. The share price increased by one-fifth to 2.1p.

There were no more negatives in the digital content payments and subscriptions company Bango (LON: BGO) 2023 figures following its disappointing trading statement earlier in the year. The previously announced foreign exchange loss was not taken through the income statement. Revenues grew from $28.5m to $46.1m with a full contribution from DOCOMO. The reported loss jumped from $4.8m to $10.2m. The NewDeep joint venture is being wound down so that stop the losses from it, while the technology can be used in the core business. Net debt is $3.9m. Capex continues at a high level and there is an unused overdraft facility of £3m that can be used. First quarter revenues are up by one-fifth and cost savings will help Bango achieve the anticipated move into profit this year. Annualised recurring revenues are $11m. The share price recovered 9.81% to 117.5p and it was higher in the day.

FALLERS

Bens Creek (LON: BEN) has secured a one-off sale of 20,000 tons of coal to 29.9% shareholder Avani Resources for $1.2m, of which $1m has been received in advance of delivery. This is lower quality coal, and the deal is separate to the offtake agreement. This helps to alleviate the poor financial position of the US-based metallurgical coal miner. Production levels have been reduced due to problems at the mine and more funds will be required. The share price slumped 25.2% to 1.1p.

Moroccan potash project developer Emmerson (LON: EML) is raising $2.175m at 1.75p. The share price declined 15.9% to 1.85p. The new investors are Global Sustainable Minerals and Gold Quay Capital. The cash will finance the feasibility study for a new processing route and the EIA process. A REX retail offer of up to £240,000 has been launched and closes at 1pm.

Serabi Gold (LON: SRB) has announced information about exploration activities at the Palito Complex in Brazil, which identified prospective copper porphyry targets. The drilling was undertaken with Vale, which has withdrawn from the exploration joint venture. Other companies are other partners are interested. There are also results from drilling at the Sao Domingo gold target. The share price fell 5.04% to 66p.

Oil and gas producer Caspian Sunrise (LON: CASP) is paying up to $15m in cash and shared for CS Energy, which holds licences to the West Shalva contract area in Kazakhstan. This is near to the Shalva field. This is a lower risk asset because the oil is at shallower depths. The initial payment is $5m in shares at 4p each. The owner is an existing shareholder in Caspian Sunrise. The share price dipped 6.49% to 3.6p.

HSBC downgrades Rentokil Initial to hold, cuts price target to 480p

HSBC equity analysts have downgraded Rentokil Initial to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ on concerns about the integration of US-based Terminix and how Rentokil will improve ROCE.

Rentokil Initial’s capital base is now three times larger than before the Terminix acquisition and HSBC analysts have doubts about how the company can improve its return on capital, given Terminix had a lower ROCE than the wider Rentokil Initial group.

HSBC also noted the constraints of possible slower US growth later in the year and the operational challenges of integrating Terminix, including competitors using the disruption caused by the acquisition to steal business away from Terminix.

As a result, HSBC has cut its Rentokil Initial price target to 480p from 495p.

“We cut our adj EPS estimates by 1.4% for 2024e and by 2.2% for 2025e considering slightly lower operating margins and higher expected net finance costs. However, we increase our ROCE projections slightly, expecting better ‘capital turnover’. The business may do better, but we think our revised assumptions are safer and more prudent,” HSBC analysts wrote in a note.

“To set our target price, we still apply our target PE of 20x but on our revised estimate for 2024e. Our target PE is about 10 ‘turns’ lower than RTO’s peak PE multiple in 2022e, reflecting higher interest rates, discount rates, and uncertainty but allowing for the lack of cyclicality in the business model and the potential for higher future returns. Thus, we derive our now lower target price of 480p (from 495p).”

Gold hits another fresh record high as traders assess US jobs implications

Gold hit another fresh record high on Monday as traders digested a raft of economic data and prepared for central bank action later in the week.

Gold was trading at $2,336 at the time of writing, retreating slightly from highs above $2,340.

The gold rally is at odds with Western equity markets, which have also consistently broken to fresh highs. Gold is seen as a safe haven by many investors and is usually expected to move in the opposite direction to comparatively risky stocky.

Amid developed market equity strength, the gold rally has been attributed to Chinese buyers seeking to hedge against economic uncertainty and elevated levels of central bank buying.

“Gold shot past $2,340 an ounce on Monday, a new record high. Investors are continuing to untangle the implications of a stronger US jobs market, and the potential for higher interest rates,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The needle is likely to move this week, depending on the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s March minutes and CPI data. Some commentators believe that sub-$2000 pricing for the shiny stuff could be a thing of the past, but as with all commodities, there will be ups and downs.

“There’s an element of people chasing the high which is contributing to the climbs seen in recent days, rather than the rally being solely based on fundamental factors.”

Portmeirion Group – the Swedes are certainly not going potty

There has been a very recent accretion of shares by one of this pottery group’s Swedish-based shareholders – begging the question what is behind this latest move?
It is even more interesting after the group, just two weeks ago, announced a collapse in its 2023 profits from £8.0m to just £3.0m, slashing its earnings by more than a half in the process.
The Business
The Portmeirion Group (LON:PMP) is the owner, designer, manufacturer, and omni-channel retailer of homeware brands in global markets.
It manufactures earthenware from its factory in Stoke-on-Trent and home fragrance at its factory in ...

S&P 500 technical analysis review 8th April 2024

Last week highlighted the powerful long term trend that the index has been in for the past few months. Pushing up a breathtaking 27% in the latest move. A push this powerful has not been seen since the initial recovery from the pandemic crash. We highlighted last week the strength of the trend was even pushing down to the hourly chart as well. For this reason we again zoom into the hourly chart.

On this chart we have again a 200 period and 100 period linear regression channel, both of which had been containing all of the recent price action, until the break lower last week.

We highlighted last week that it would be difficult for the market to experience any real nervousness while these strong trends remained in place. But now we have our first test. Can the buyers return to enough scale to keep this bullish move in place, or is this the first warning sign?

We have thrown up a ghost projection of what the bears will want to see in the days ahead, namely an expected bounce from the oversold areas, but then a lack of follow through buying. Where projected price then drops to fresh lower lows. On any such move this would cause more jitters in the market as this would threaten the end of the powerful bullish trend.

As things stand however we can expect the buyers to be tempted back into the markets with enough scale to lift price action up towards 5,200 in fairly short order. What happens then will be highly watched. Can the buyers maintain control, or is this the first sign of the trend easing? We will know more in the coming days, with price action around 5,200 as key.