AIM movers: Zinnwald Lithium increases resource and Shield Diagnostics prescription numbers revised downwards

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Zinnwald Lithium (LON: ZNWD) has published an updated mineral resource estimate for the 100%-owned Zinnwald lithium project in Saxony, Germany. This has made it the biggest mover on the day with a rise of 35.5% to 7.25p, having been near to 8p at one point. There is a measured resource and indicated resource of 194mt with a further 33.3mt of inferred resource containing 429,000t of lithium at an average grade of 0.5%. That is a 445% increase in tonnes and a 243% increase in contained lithium compared to the 2018 mineral resource estimate. The operating costs were already relatively low, and the additional resource should reduce them further. The Zinnwald project is in a region with automotive manufacturers that could be end users of the lithium.

Financial terminals software developer Arcontech (LON: ARC) improved interim revenues by 7% to £1.45m and it had net cash of £5.7m at the end of December 2023. Cavendish has upgraded its full year pre-tax profit forecast by 44% to £800,000. The share price is 6.9% ahead at 93p.

INTERPOL has chosen Windward (LON: WNWD) maritime technology to address illegal activities at sea. This is the public announcement of a contract won in the second half of 2023. The AI technology will be used to identify, track and prevent criminal activities. The share price has lost most of its early gains but it is still up 2.22% to 23p.

Keystone Law Group (LON: KEYS) performed strongly in the year to January 2024. Sustained demand and new joiners meant that revenues were better than anticipated. There were 51 new principals recruited last year, taking the total to 432. Pre-tax profit will be slightly ahead of expectations of £10.7m. The full year figures will be published on 18 April. The share price is 3.7% higher at 560p.

FALLERS

Shield Therapeutics (LON: STX) is making progress with Accrufer iron deficiency treatment sales, but a third party overstated the number of prescriptions in 2023. There would have been 90,500 on the previous methodology, which was lower than expected, but the revised figure is 77,000. Year-end cash was $13.9m. Costs are being controlled, but there is no guarantee that there is enough cash to reach breakeven. Shield Therapeutics expects to be cash flow positive in the second half of 2025 instead of later this year. The share price slumped 47.8% to 2.95p.

TomCo Energy (LON: TOM) has raised £300,000 at 0.045p/share, which was a large discount to the market price that has fallen 38.2% to 0.0525p. The cash will finance the development of Tar Sands Holdings II site in the Unita Basin in Utah. A subsidiary has a 10% interest and had an option to acquire the other 90% for $17.25m. The option has expired, but TomCo Energy is trying to negotiate an extension to the option period.

Optical equipment manufacturer Gooch & Housego (LON: GHH) has been hit by weakness in the industrial and medical markets. Profit will be second half weighted and the 2023-24 pre-tax profit forecast has been reduced by £3m to £9.5m. The order book has improved to £128.5m and £85m should be recognised during the current financial year. The share price has dived 16.6% to 509p, but that is less than the downgrade in forecast earnings.

EnergyPathways (LON: EPP) has a memorandum of understanding with MCS Subsea Solutions and Mermaid Subsea Solutions for the provision of engineering services for the Marram gas project in the UK Irish Sea. First production is targeted for 2025. The share price slipped 11.3% to 2.75p.

HSBC shares fall after revenue and profits sink in Q4

HSBC shares fell on Wednesday after the banks released mixed full year earnings and a broadly disappointing Q4 trading update.

Unlike Barclays yesterday, HSBC was unable to gloss over falling Q4 profits and a mixed outlook with a share buyback.

HSBC shares were down 5% at the time of writing. 

The £2bn share buyback announced today by HSBC is by no means insignificant, yet investors are more concerned about falling revenue and huge impairments almost wiping out profit. 

Q4 operating profit fell £4bn to £1bn primarily due to impairment charges.

The Chinese real estate sector continues to be a hindrance for HSBC, and the bank recorded a £3bn impairment charge related to their associate BoCom. In addition, HSBC recorded a £2bn impairment as its French retail banking operations were reclassified as held for sale.

The outlook failed to inspire. The bank said cost were to rise 5% in the next year which isn’t overly dramatic. However, in the context of Barclays cost cutting measures announced yesterday and wider headcount reduction across other major banks, HSBC could be perceived to be behind the curve in managing overheads. 

“If there was an award for simple and clean results then HSBC would get the booby prize. There’s a lot to unpack here, with the fourth quarter alone impacted by two major impairments: a $3bn write-down in the value of BoCom (Chinese bank) and a $2bn write-down from the sale of its French operation. Backing out a lot of the mess, it looks like performance was a little worse than expected with higher operating costs more than offsetting slightly better impairments,” said Matt Britzman, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown

“Mainland China remains a question mark. The write-down of BoCom follows a similar pattern to what Standard Chartered did last quarter and while loan loss charges were better than expected, the Chinese commercial real estate sector continues to be weak.

“The outlook is equally as messy. Returns are expected in the mid-teens once some one-off bits are backed out, costs are forecast to rise 5% and loan loss levels are expected to tick higher. Overall, that paints a mixed underlying picture that looks to be a little worse than the current consensus has built-in.”

Tip update: Lok’nStore continues progress

Self-storage sites operator Lok’nStore (LON: LOK) increased first half revenues by 4.9%, helped by higher prices. Part of the debt has been fixed at a lower interest charge and the outlook remains positive for the growing market.
The three latest stores are building up their business and a new managed site has been opened. One owned store and one managed store will open this year. This investment will help to improve the long-term valuation of the store portfolio.
The balance sheet remains strong. Loan-to-value was 3.7% at the end of July 2023 and it not expected to peak at much more than 13.3...

Domino’s Pizza shares receive tasty broker upgrade

Domino’s Pizza shares delivered a substantial gain on Tuesday after the pizza delivery company received an upgrade from equity analysts at Jefferies.

Jefferies upgraded Domino’s Pizza shares to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ and raised their price target to 430p from 410p. The Domino’s Pizza share price was 6% higher at the time of writing.

“We see upside from higher growth, supported by our regional store screening analysis,” Jefferies said in a note.

Domino’s is expanding its footprint across the UK, ensuring more areas are covered by an outlet, which will likely lead to additional revenues in the future.

“Domino’s Pizza got a boost from a positive broker note whereby Jefferies upgraded its rating on the stock from ‘hold’ to ‘buy’, citing new management, improved growth prospects and easing cost inflation,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“It might feel as if there is a Domino’s store in just about every major town and city in the UK, but Jefferies is confident it can add a further 360 stores and make money from them. The idea of paying £20 for a takeaway pizza might give some people the chills yet Domino’s has shown there are still ways to shift large volumes even when the economy is going through a more lacklustre period.”

FTSE 100 helped higher by Barclays and IHG

The FTSE 100 reversed early losses on Tuesday as a strong session for Barclays and InterContinental Hotels helped support the index.

London’s leading index had started the session in the red, with miners dragging the index lower as copper prices fell. However, traders saw the dip in the mining sector as a buying opportunity, and miners trended higher off their worst levels as the session progressed.

An improvement in the miners compounded substantial gains for Barclays and InterContinental Hotels, and the FTSE 100 was trading 0.15% higher at the time of writing.

Barclays stole the headlines after the UK banks announced a £1bn share buyback and £2bn in cost-cutting measures. These two developments helped mask falling profit in the last quarter and declining net interest margins. The bank also said it would return £10bn to shareholders by 2026.

“There is a common theme among companies: increase dividends and cut costs to keep shareholders happy. Staff might not appreciate this strategy as it means they may have to do additional work for the same pay, but running a leaner machine is the playbook for corporates when there is an uncertain economic outlook,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Barclays is the latest to follow this path as it announces yet another business reorganisation, a lower cost-to-income ratio target and a goal to return £10 billion to shareholders via share buybacks and dividends over the next three years.

“The news has gone down well with the market and has helped Barclays’ share price burst back to life after a long period in the doldrums.”

Lloyds and HSBC will report earnings later in the week.

InterContinental Hotels

InterContinental Hotels staged a quiet recovery from the pandemic and is now in full-blown growth mode, with revenue rising 17% in 2023 compared to the year prior. Growth was robust across North America and Europe while Greater China stormed ahead.

The group plans further expansion in China with 500 hotel openings to add to its 700 already in place. This would make Greater China a substantial part of IHG’s business in terms of room numbers.

“Safe to say the pandemic hangover is truly over for Intercontinental Hotels Group with over $1bn on its way back to shareholders via buybacks,” said Adam Vettese, analyst at eToro.

“Despite the cost of living crisis, it seems there has been no lull in demand for leisure spending with travel stocks in general having an outstanding 2023. Along with a portfolio of brands consumers can know and trust, this helped IHG shares rocket 68% last year.

“We expect to see macro conditions begin to ease up, which certainly will not stifle the appetite for leisure spending. In fact, with more disposable cash in consumers’ pockets as inflation continues to ease, it’s quite likely we will see the firm build on its 2023 success.”

Predator Oil & Gas shares plunge on testing setback

Predator Oil & Gas shares sank on Tuesday after the company ran into trouble in phase 1 of the rigless testing of its onshore gas asset.

Predator said rigless testing with small perforating guns encountered formation damage and will now pursue phase 2 testing using Sandjet. The company said they were confident the next stage of testing would establish gas flow.

Predator has encountered operational constraints in recent months and rescheduled works as a result. Today’s long-awaited update will not have been the one investors – who will now await further testing results – were hoping for.

The company had previously alluded to phase 2 being the critical stage in testing but that has not softened the blow for investors.

“The Phase 1 rigless testing programme has confirmed our long-standing plans to use Sandjet to better target a number of zones of interest identified by the NuTech petrophysical interpretation. The presence of potentially deep formation damage caused by heavy drilling mud has re-confirmed the necessity to test these zones for which the wireline logs are likely to have been impacted by the invasive drilling mud,” said Paul Griffiths, Executive Chairman of Predator.

“We are very confident that we can design the Sandjet testing parameters to extend beyond the zone of formation damage.”

Investors appear not to share this confidence and shares were down over 30% at the time of writing.

The company said there were no changes to the discretionary working capital available to carry out the testing programme.

Predator did not, however, say whether the working capital available would be enough to complete the planned programme or, indeed any additional work required in light of today’s setback.

There is no suggestion Predator is facing capital constraints but to mention available working capital alongside today’s disappointing developments would suggest the company is conscious of funding requirements.

“Resources estimates remain unchanged and there are no changes to available discretionary working capital to carry out the Sandjet testing programme. We are however fully aware that we need to flow gas from our main zones in the most effective manner after accounting for formation damage, and we have confidence in Sandjet achieving that objective,” Paul Griffiths said.

AIM movers: Engage XR contract wins and Nightcap buys Piano Works funded by subscription at a premium

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Virtual reality platform operator Engage XR (LON: EXR) has won major contracts, including its largest ever. There is a seven figure US dollar contract to develop a private MetaWorld for a Middle East-based educational company. An extension has been secured to a contract with a major American bank for employee training. There should be benefits from the Lenovo headset partnership should show through this year. Shard Capital forecasts an EBITDA loss of €4.6m in 2023, with cash of €7.3m at the end of the year. The share price recovered 49% to 3.8p, which is the highest since last June.

Kistos Holdings (LON: KIST) is acquiring EDF Energy (Gas Storage), which owns two gas storage facilities at Hill Top Farm and Hole House Farm, for £25m. This is an entry into gas storage. Hill Top has 3.1% of the UK’s gas storage capacity, while Hole House is non-operational. Both sites could be used for hydrogen storage in the future. The share price is 8% higher at 149p.

David Jones has increased his stake in Vast Resources (LON: VAST) from 4.14% to 5.1%. The share price improved 6.67% to 0.08p.

Oil and gas producer Angus Energy (LON: ANGS) has renewed the £6m bridge facility due to be repaid today has been extended to 23 February to allow time to complete documentation for a proposed £20m refinancing facility. The share price rose 6.25% to 0.425p.

Oil and gas company Arrow Exploration (LON: AXL) reveals successful results from drilling the CN-4 and CN-5 wells. CN-4 is on the 50%-owned Carrizales Norte field and has achieved test flow rates in line with neighbouring wells. CN-5 is a new discovery on the Tapir block with an initial resource target of 5.3mmbbl. Arow Exploration has cash of more than $13m. The share price is 5% ahead at 21p.

FALLERS

Horizonte Minerals (LON: HZM) estimates that it will cost $454m to complete construction and deliver first metal at the Araguaia nickel project. This means that the estimate at completion is currently 87% higher than before at $1bn. The company is in talks with shareholders and lenders to secure full funding in the second quarter of 2024. The increased investment requirement means that existing debt facilities will have to be restructured. Short-term funding will be required will the discussions continue. The share price dived 60.3% to 3.375p – a new all-time low.

Nightcap (LON: NGHT) has acquired the Farringdon-based live music venue Piano Works out of administration for £200,000. The Farringdon site generated revenues of £4.6m last year. There is also a Paino Works on Nightcap’s Barrio Covent Garden site. The directors of the acquired business will take a minority stake. Nightcap has raised £1m at 6p/share – a premium to the market price. Bar Elba is closing in February. Allenby has reduced its 2023-24 profit forecast due to cost rises and train strikes. The EBITDA forecast has been slashed by 56% to £2.2m. The share price fell 8.16% to 4.5p.

Zeus has reinitiated coverage of Revolution Beauty (LON: REVB). The broker highlights the focus on the core brand and regions, plus the greater focus on cash generation. Zeus expects a return to profit in the year to February 2024 with £2.4m pencilled in. However, this is forecast to fall to £500,000 next year as brands are discontinued. The share price dipped 3.49% to 26.925p.

Horizonte Minerals shares crash on revised capital requirements and further nickel mine delays

Horizonte Minerals shares sank on Tuesday after announcing that the capital required to complete construction of its Araguaia nickel project in Brazil has increased to approximately $1 billion, up 87% from previous estimates of $537 million.

The revised cost-to-complete (CTC) estimate and construction schedule were prepared by G Mining Services, a mining construction and engineering firm. G Mining estimated the capital needed to finish construction, commission the Araguaia project, and deliver first metal would be around $454 million. When combined with prior spending, this brings the total estimate at completion (EAC) to $1.004 billion.

Horizonte said it expects to achieve mechanical completion of Araguaia in the first quarter of 2026 under the revised schedule.

Horizonte Minerals shares were down 59% at the time of writing.

The company appointed Graham Crew as interim Chief Operating Officer to oversee the review process and construction plans. Horizonte also said it is in discussions with major shareholders and lenders to restructure debt facilities and secure full financing for the project.

The news will come as a hammer blow to investors who will now have to wait many years for the first production and face the uncertainty of how Horizonte will actually get there.

“Since our last update, a significant volume of work has been completed to develop a new Project Execution Plan, develop a realistic mine plan and business plan, all while continuing to proactively engage with the Company’s cornerstone shareholders, senior lenders, vendors and contractors as well as the community and local authorities,” said interim CEO Karim Nasr.

“While the new Cost-to-Complete is higher than previously announced by the company, it is now built on solid methodologies, which is a testament to the hard work undertaken to date by the whole Horizonte team.”

Barclays shares gain on share buyback and cost-cutting measures

Barclays shares rose on Tuesday after the London-listed bank announced an additional £1bn share buyback and £2bn in cost cuts by 2026.

Barclays shares rose 4% in early trade as investors chose to focus on the buyback and cost-cutting measures and looked past lower total income and revenue that missed estimates.

The group said it planned to return £10bn to investors by 2026.

Additional share buybacks almost always please investors, but Q4’s total income of £5.6bn compared to expectations of £5.8bn highlights the challenging environment banks are now operating in.

That said, while the announcement of £2bn in cost savings wasn’t a total surprise, the swift and decisive action taken by Barclays to help bolster the bottom line will be welcomed by investors concerned about the prospect of lower net interest margins in the coming periods.

For the full year, Barclay’s net interest margin was 3.98%, reflecting a higher interest rate environment. However, Q4 group net interest margin fell to 3.83% after peaking at 4.06% in Q2. This represents the impact of higher competition for savings deposits and expectations of rate cuts in 2024.

With net interest margins past their peak for the current hiking cycle, cost-cutting measures are crucial for maintaining profitability.

In terms of non-operating and one-off costs incurred during the period, Barclays has set aside cash for redundancies and bad US debts. These non-recurring costs weighed on profits during Q4 and may explain why investors chose to focus on future cost-cutting instead of recent profitability.

“There’s a shakeup at Barclays. It’ll now report through five distinct operating divisions with accountability as a key focus. Investors will hear more later today when the company dives into details,” said Matt Britzman, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Fourth quarter performance was a little worse than expected, largely because of higher costs associated with the restructure. There was some concern that this could impact the buyback, but Barclays has put that to bed with a £1bn plan, ahead of expectations.”

“Medium-term guidance was positive and points to around 54% of today’s market cap being returned to investors by 2026. But there may be some who question whether it’s a little optimistic, especially relating to growth expected from the investment bank. Barclays’ huge presence in the investment banking world is an attractive proposition. But conditions are still poor and low activity in the capital markets continues to weigh on performance.”

Tip update: Transense Technologies short-term expectations reduced to fund long-term profit

Transense Technologies (LON: TRT) had some disappointments in the first half but it remains highly cash generative and able to invest for growth. The forecasts have been trimmed, but the share price never reflected the previous estimates, and the prospective multiple is still relatively modest.  
In the six months to December 2023, revenues improved from £1.64m to £1.81m. Lower admin expenses meant that pre-tax profit jumped from £257,000 to £632,000.
The make up of the revenues changed. All the growth came from iTrack mining truck tyre monitoring royalties, despite a three-month strike a...