Oil gains after a rough Monday

Despite the Monday hit from increased OPEC output and Saudi Arabia’s price cuts, WTI Crude jumped 2.02%, while Brent gained 1.95% at the time of writing on Tuesday.

On Monday, both contracts fell over 3% as prices struggled against macroeconomic forces.

However, “despite the outlook of softening demand for oil globally, Brent Crude has gained ground and is now hovering above $76. With the Middle East situation so fragile and the risks of escalation still bubbling, upward pressure has resumed, helping energy giants in early trade,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Nonetheless, the drop in oil price earlier this week “has added to hopes that price pressures on consumers will ease, as lower Brent crude prices would feed through to lighter transportation costs,” added Streeter.

Investors will keep a close eye on the situation in the Red Sea and economic data for signs for future growth.

Games Workshop’s record revenue and profit growth justifies valuation

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One may argue Games Workshop’s lofty valuation has been justified by the news of the British miniature wargames manufacturer’s record profit and dividend in the last six months.

The manufacturer announced raising the dividend to 120 pence per share, bringing the total dividends declared in 2023–24 to £3.15 per share. Comparatively, in 2022–23, it was £2.95 per share.

Furthermore, the company’s pre-tax profits soared to £95.2 million in the last six months.

Earnings per share (EPS) have also seen an uptick, rising from 202.4p to 216.9p. In a show of confidence, the dividend has been raised to 195p from the previous 165p for this period.

The Games Workshop’s shares were down 1% at the time of writing on Tuesday, but have been recovering all morning. The company’s shares are 205% higher over the past five years.

“2023 could mark another significant turning point for Games Workshop,” said Mark Crouch, analyst at eToro, “as the fantasy miniatures maker has finalised an agreement with Amazon granting exclusive rights to films and television series set within the Warhammer 40,000 universe.”

“And while there are some further details to be agreed upon, this could be the key to unlocking yet more growth in a company whose share price has risen twentyfold in the last seven years but has recently been unable to breach the highs of late 2022,” he added.

“The company does have an above-average PE, but many will argue that IPs like this really have no bounds, and for now at least North America, Europe, and the UK make up the majority of the company’s stores and coverage, so Games Workshop will now aim to expand to the rest of the world, which is, as the company themselves put it, “green field territory”,” further said Crouch.

Key Differences Between CFDs and Futures Trading: An Introductory Primer

Assessing the intricacies of financial markets exposes a topography characterised by diverse instruments, with Contracts for Difference (CFDs) and futures contracts noteworthy options. These two financial instruments share the common thread of allowing speculation on future asset prices; however, their nuanced differences play a critical role in shaping distinct trading experiences. Understanding these disparities is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the intricacies of modern financial markets.

Flexibility in Trading with CFDs

For investors, CFD trading has many benefits as unique instruments recognised for their flexibility, facilitating traders to speculate on price movements without the necessity of owning the underlying asset. This distinctive characteristic is favourable for those seeking to capitalise on ascending and descending market trends. Traders are enabled to adopt a “long” position (to profit from price increases) or a “short” position (to potentially profit from a decrease in prices). This inherent adaptability is accommodated across numerous markets, supplying investors with exposure to diverse sectors from a singular and unified trading platform.

Understanding the Structure of Futures

In contrast to CFDs, futures contracts concern an agreement to buy or sell a specific asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. These contracts are limited by standardised sizes and are traded on regulated exchanges; however, although standardisation ensures high liquidity and encourages price transparency, it simultaneously imposes limitations on flexibility. Futures are typically associated with longer-term trades due to specified expiry dates, making them a preferred instrument for hedging against price volatility.

Costs and Commitments: CFDs vs. Futures

Cost considerations are integral in discerning the differences between CFDs and futures trading. CFD transactions typically encompass paying the “spread” (the difference between buy and sell prices) and may incur holding costs for positions kept open overnight. In contrast, futures transactions commonly entail upfront margin requirements and associated costs – such as exchange and clearing fees. In terms of commitments, CFD traders possess the flexibility to close positions at any point before the contract expires, providing greater control and management over trading positions.

Market Regulation and Oversight Differences

Significant disparities in regulatory frameworks govern CFDs and futures, affecting the overall trading experience. CFDs operate as over-the-counter (OTC) products, traded without regulation on exchanges, resulting in a lower level of transparency compared to futures. Contrastingly, futures contracts undergo clearance through central exchanges, mitigating counterparty risk and cultivating a structured market environment. Traders must grasp these differences as they can significantly impact trade execution and capital protection.

Balancing Merits and Risks

Regardless if one gravitates towards the versatility and short-term dynamics of CFDs or the structured and transparent nature of futures trading, each financial instrument carries its own set of merits and risks. A discerning selection between the two should align with investment goals, risk tolerance and market understanding. As with any investment, thorough research in combination with a clear and disciplined strategy establishes a robust foundation for a lucrative journey through the dynamic terrain of financial markets.

Concluding Remarks

In conclusion, the fundamental differences between CFDs and futures trading extend beyond their shared ability to speculate on future asset prices. Flexibility, cost structures and regulatory frameworks characterise these instruments, offering investors varied pathways based on subjective preferences and appetite for risk. Ultimately, a nuanced understanding of these differences is critical for informed decision-making in the ever-evolving domain of financial markets.

AIM movers: Chamberlin raises cash for working capital and buying activity in Fiinu

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There has been significant buying activity in fintech Fiinu (LON: BANK) this morning, although the largest deal was worth less than £3,000. This is already the most shares traded on a single day since July. There were recent board changes and Fiinu still wants to apply for a banking licence, but it will have to find up to £42m to fund the application. The share price jumped 42.3% to 0.925p.

Eden Research (LON: EDEN) has gained approval for Mevalone in California. Mevalone is a biofungicide that treats botrytis on grapes. In 2021, 650 million gallons of wine was produced, and the addressable market is estimated to be €94m. The share price increased 17.4% to 6.75p.

Golden Metal Resources (LON: GMET) has outlined a new high-grade gold, silver and copper bedrock discovery at its Garfield project in Nevada. This is based on rock samples from recently secured claims. The discovery area is called the Pamlico Au zone. The share price rose 10.8% to 10.25p.

Digital media company Digitalbox (LON: DBOX) says 2023 results were in line with downgraded expectations. It appears that the UK advertising market problems are easing. Google-related restrictions on Entertainment Daily have ended and new acquisition TVGuide.co.uk is starting to contribute. The full year results will be published on 26 March. The share price improved 11.9% to 3.75p.

FALLERS

Foundries operator Chamberlin (LON: CMH) is raising £830,000 at 2p/share. The share price slumped 31.6% to 1.95p. Executive director Trevor Brown is acquiring 3.55 million shares. This will provide working capital to help finance the new long-term contracts that have been won in recent months. It will also help to pay the cash owed to HMRC. A pre-tax profit of at least £800,000 is anticipated for 2023-24.

Touch sensors manufacturer Zytronic (LON: ZYT) reports a 30% decline in full year revenues to £8.6m and it fell back into loss. Gross margins were hit by higher raw material costs and product mix. Sales continue to decline this year. There are signs that there could be improvement in the second half. Net cash is £4.7m. The share price fell by one-quarter to 60p.

Intelligent Ultrasound (LON: IUG) reported 2023 revenues of £11.2m, which is below expectations of £12.5m. Like-for-like revenues grew by 38%, when one-off revenues are excluded. AI revenues nearly trebled to £2m. The shortfall was in the ultrasound simulation business, where sales in Europe and China were lower than expected. There was £3m in the bank at the end of 2023. AI sales should double this year and simulation sales are also expected to grow. A 2024 pre-tax profit of £500,00 was forecast, but this was based on revenues of £17.7m. Revenues guidance is between £14m and £17m, so a profit is unlikely this year. Management says it has enough cash to achieve profitability. The share price dipped 14.6% to 8.75p.

Yesterday afternoon, Mediazest (LON: MDZ) raised £120,000 at 0.04p/share. The share price slipped 5.88% to 0.04p. This cash will finance the new Netherlands subsidiary and provide investment in sales and marketing.

Tekcapital shares jump after MicroSalt listed on Amazon UK platform

Tekcapital shares jumped on Tuesday after the technology-focused investment company announced MicroSalt has introduced its low-sodium shakers on the Amazon UK platform.

Tekcapital shares were 5.8% higher at the time of writing.

In addition, and in support of its UK expansion, MicroSalt has forged a strategic local distribution partnership with Reliable Express in Southampton.

The agreement provides the storage and distribution of MicroSalt’s bulk-packed products, catering to the growing B2B market demand within the food distribution and manufacturing sectors in both the UK and EU markets.

MicroSalt is supplying some of the world’s largest snack foods businesses with large quantities of low-sodium salt requiring substantial storage and distribution capabilities.

In their admission document released last year, MicroSalt described demand from a large multinational for their Latin American businesses in the form of a 9.5mt order. Today’s announcement suggests MicroSalt is gearing up for large orders from European businesses.

“Inclusion of our low sodium solutions on the Amazon shopping platform is key to our efforts to make MicroSalt readily available to meet the demand of our B2C customers,” said Rick Guiney, CEO of MicroSalt®.

“Additionally, our partnership with Reliable Express in the UK is a vital piece of our growing distribution network as it will allow us to reliably and efficiently service food manufacturing channels in both the UK and EU. Excess sodium consumption is one of the leading contributors to hypertension and heart disease. Now MicroSalt will be available to help consumers in the UK and Europe enjoy great tasting, healthy products with less sodium.”

FTSE 100 slips with commodities in focus

The FTSE 100 was weaker on Monday as miners and oil majors dragged on the index after Saudi Arabia cut its oil prices and enthusiasm around interest rate cuts began to ebb.

Global equities had a stellar end to 2023 on hopes central banks would start to cut rates early in the new year. However, since then, economic data points and central bank comments suggest the first cuts won’t come as soon as some market participants hope.

Indeed, market pricing of rate cuts has reversed slightly since the turn of the year, which continued in equities and fixed income on Monday. London’s leading index had been sharply lower earlier in the session, but dip buyers stepped in to provide support as trade progressed.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.15% at the time of writing.

“The FTSE 100 dipped on Monday as weak commodity prices hit the big resources stocks which populate the index,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“In general, the momentum which stocks built up in the latter part of 2023 seems to have been lost for now as some of the excitement over interest rates has dissipated and doubt has crept in about a soft landing for the economy.

“US inflation figures scheduled for Thursday could either help get markets out of their mild New Year funk or put shares under renewed pressure, so this release will be closely monitored. Disruption to shipping routes in the Red Sea are hinting at renewed inflationary pressures coming down the pipe.”

FTSE 100 movers

The FTSE 100’s commodity companies were the main detractors of the index’s performance with Glencore, BP, Shell and Anglo American down between 1.3% – 2.4%.

However, after last week’s shock profit warning, JD Sports was the top faller as the sell-off continued. JD Sports shares are now worth 29.9% less than they were at the end of 2023 and are by far the FTSE 100’s worst performer so far in 2024.

Melrose was the top gainer amid fluctuations in the aerospace caused by Boeing’s malfunction over the weekend. Those in Boeing’s supply chain are suffering while competitor supply chains are benefiting.

Oil sinks on increased OPEC output and Saudi Arabia price cuts

On Monday, both WTI and Brent Crude dropped by almost 3% on the news of significant price reductions from leading exporter Saudi Arabia and an increase in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) output.

WTI Crude was down by 2.91%, while Brent Crude was down by almost 2.70% at the time of writing on Monday.

Saudi Arabia has slashed its crude selling prices to Asian customers, marking the most significant price cut in 13 months.

Saudi Aramco, the country’s oil giant, reduced its flagship Arab Light price by $2 per barrel.

Counteracting the rise in prices driven by geopolitical tensions, a recent Reuters survey revealed that output from OPEC increased by 70,000 bpd in December, reaching 27.88 million bpd.

Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State currently in the Middle East, further warned that, without a coordinated peace initiative, the Gaza conflict has the potential to escalate throughout the region.

Additionally, in the U.K., “the current Conservative government, whose tenure effectively dates back to 2010 and covers a flurry of five prime ministers, could be seen as having taken an increasingly interventionist approach to the economy, given such initiatives as sugar taxes, Help to Buy, energy price caps, and windfall taxes on North Sea oil producers,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Shell shares dip after signalling impairment costs

Shell shares were lower on Monday after the oil gaint signaled up to $4.5bn in impairment costs due to the write down refining assets and lower energy prices weighs on profit.

The oil major released its earnings teaser amid falling oil prices on Monday after Saudi Arabia said it was cutting prices.

Shell shares were down 1.8% at the time of writing.

“The usual teaser for Shell’s quarterly results did little to enthuse investors as Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut crude prices dampened sentiment towards the sector,” said AJ Bell’s Russ Mould.

“If it wasn’t for the threat of disruption to supplies thanks to tensions in the Middle East, one might have expected crude prices to come under sustained pressure as inventories and production build and signs of demand weakness emerge.

“At least Shell can lean on its big integrated gas arm. Though news its performance improved in the fourth quarter – when many of the world’s big consumers of natural gas are facing seasonally cold temperatures – hardly feels like a big revelation.”

Integrated gas was a bright spot in an otherwise run of the mill update that will do little to encourgage investors, especially with energy prices languishing despite efforts by OPEC+ to support oil prices.

“A weak performance for its chemicals division is compounded by the big writedown associated with a Singapore refining hub it is looking to sell,” Russ Mould said.

“Shell has been a beneficiary of higher commodity prices over the approximate two years which have followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The company needs to show it can deliver when market conditions aren’t so helpful.

Boeing shares crash on the news of an FAA grounding order

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On Monday, Boeing shares crashed to 8.5% both in the US pre-market on the news of a temporary grounding order issued by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for a number of Boeing 737 MAX 9 jets.

On Friday, a Boeing 737 Max 9 jet experienced an emergency door plug detachment shortly after takeoff from Portland, Oregon, bound for Ontario, California. The aircraft returned and safely landed after the incident. 

While some passengers received treatment for minor injuries, no fatalities were reported. In response, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a temporary grounding order for approximately 171 Boeing jets on Saturday. 

The FAA emphasized that the planes would remain grounded until they are deemed safe to resume operations.

“Boeing’s reputation has been shattered after the incident last Friday involving one of its 737 Max planes flown by Alaska Airlines. It is the latest in a string of problems for the company, which include the grounding of 737 Max plans in 2019 after two crashes and subsequent delivery delays and production issues,”  said AJ Bell Investment director Russ Mould.

“Safety is of paramount importance in the aviation sector and airlines using 737 Max planes will be thinking long and hard about their future aircraft requirements and how Boeing might play a smaller role, or none at all. That might explain why Airbus shares jumped on Monday as investors are betting it could take even more market share from Boeing,” Mould added.

Airbus shares were up 2.32% at the time of writing on Monday.

“There is no room for error building planes and cutting corners in the production stage could have catastrophic consequences. There are naturally questions being asked about the quality checks and whether Boeing is trying to do too much too fast,” said Russ Mould.

“Boeing’s management will be under considerable pressure from the regulators and customers to explain what’s going on, which means considerable headwinds ahead for the business. It’s no wonder investors have raced to sell the shares as the risks to the investment case have just shot up,” Mould added.

AIM movers: Poor fourth quarter for CMO and Oriole Resources receives earn-in payment

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Oriole Resources (LON: ORR) has confirmed receipt of the payment of $450,000 related to the earn-in agreement with BCM International for the Bibemi gold exploration project in Cameroon. BCM will spend $4m on exploration to earn 50% of the project. Drilling should resume in the first quarter. The share price is 17.1% higher at 0.24p.

Data analysis software and services provider Celebrus Technologies (LON: CLBS), formerly D4T4, won four contracts in the fourth quarter. Two new contracts are for three years and are in the retail and healthcare sectors. The other two are extensions of existing contracts with banks. These contracts help to underpin the expected improvement in pre-tax profit from £3.7m to £5.3m in the year to March 2024. The share price increased 9.77% to 236p.

Verici Dx (LON: VRCI) says that the Medicare national payment rate for post-kidney transplant test Tutivia and pre-kidney transplant test Clarava are effective from 1 January 2024. The rate for both of them is $2,650. The company’s testing laboratory has been accredited by the College of American Pathology. The share price rose 5.77% to 11p.

Mrs Nashida Islam-Bonnier has cut her stake in podcast platform Audioboom (LON: BOOM) from 3.7% to below 3%. The share price moved up 5.74% to 322.5p.

FALLERS

Online builders’ merchant CMO Group (LON: CMO) had a tough fourth quarter. Online traffic rates declined, but conversion rates improved. Overall orders were flat. Home improvement and DIY spending is declining. The overall repair, maintenance and improvement sector is still relatively strong, but it weakened in the second half of 2023. Market share has grown, and costs have been cut. Liberum has increased its 2023 pre-tax loss forecast from £800,000 to £1.2m and forecasts a 2024 loss. The share price fell 12.7% to 24p.

N4 Pharma (LON: N4P) says that its Nuvec silica nanoparticle delivery system for vaccines improved efficacy when mixed with AAV8 vector and used to traduce human-like liver cells. It was 2.5 times better than AAV8 on its own. This means that lower does could be used. Even so, the share price dipped 7.69% to 1.2p although that was from a recent high.

Morocco-based potash project developer Emmerson (LON: EML) is still waiting for government approval of its Environmental and Social Impact Study for the Khemisset potash mine. This requires a ministerial meeting. Debt financing has been extended for 12 months. The share priced declined 6.9% to 1.35p.

On Friday afternoon, Sri Lanka mineral sands project developer Capital Metals (LON: CMET) says that offtake discussions with LB Group are now non-exclusive. There has been additional interest in the Eastern Minerals project. The share price fell on Friday, and it has dropped a further 5.97% to 3.15p.

Consultancy Elixirr International (LON: ELIX) confirmed 2023 results are in line with expectations and it will pay two dividends each year. Pre-tax profit is expected to improve from £19.3m to £23.9m. The shares will go ex-dividend for the 5.3p/share interim on 19 January. Profit-taking knocked 5.65% off the share price leaving it at 585p.