BP and Shell help lift FTSE 100 as oil gains, JD Sports sinks

The FTSE 100 looked set for its first positive day of 2024 on Thursday as firmer oil prices provided support for the index.

BP and Shell helped offset sharp declines in JD Sports after the sports retailer issued a shock profit warning following a slower festive trading period.

“The FTSE 100 started Thursday on the front foot despite selling in Asia and the US overnight,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“There were decent gains for BP and Shell as oil prices extended their recent upwards movement on concerns over Middle Eastern supply. The region remains a tinder box due to the Israel-Gaza war, and disruption to shipping routes through the Red Sea is also a key factor behind the surge in crude.

“A big drawdown in US crude supplies – robust North American production played a key part in keeping a lid on prices in 2023 – is also a contributing factor.”

The FTSE 100 was trading up 0.35% at the time of writing.

Next

Next was the FTSE 100’s top gainer after the retailer again produced a sterling trading update and upgraded their guidance for the year.

Next shares were over 4% higher at the time of writing as the group said it was increasing full-year profit before tax guidance by £20m to £905m.

While Next provided a reason for investors to be cheerful, FTSE 100 retailing peer JD Sports’ shock profit warning would have been a major disappointment for shareholders used to positive updates.

Earlier in 2023, JD Sports had guided for pre-tax profits in excess of £1 billion. This guidance was rolled back today after the group said margins were pressured by increased promotional activity.

JD Sports said they now expected profit for the year to be £915m and £935m, the lowest profit since 2021.

“When one of the biggest names in retail issues a profit warning, you know life is hard for the sector,” said Russ Mould.

“For JD, issuing a profit warning is a terrible start to the new year. It will put pressure on management to up their game and find innovative ways to shift more stock without sacrificing too much margin. Any interest rate cuts from the Bank of England will be a gift to the consumer and therefore to companies like JD, but there is no guarantee that will happen any time soon.”

JD Sports shares were down 22.9% on Thursday.

AIM movers: Angle DNA breakthrough and ex-dividends

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Cancer diagnostics firm Angle (LON: AGL) has made its second positive announcement of the week. There are breakthrough results from DNA molecular analysis of cancer patient blood samples, and this covers many types of cancer. This proves the effectiveness of the Parsortix system combined with DNA analysis. Angle believes that using CTC-DNA testing of living cancer cells alongside ctDNA (DNA fragments released from dead cancer cells into the blood) will improve the way cancer is treated. It may enable doctors to track the clonal evolution of a patient’s cancer. Earlier in the week, a $250,000 pilot study to assess breast cancer patients was secured. The share price jumped 66% to 22p.

Offshore products and services provider Tekmar Group (LON: TGP) has been awarded a contract to supply its Generation 10 cable protection system. The contract is worth an initial £3.5m and production will commence this year for delivery in 2025. The share price increased 17.1% to 12p.

Floorcoverings distributor Likewise (LON: LIKE) grew 2023 revenues by 13% to £139.5m, which is better than expected. The overall market declined. Pre-tax profit is forecast to slip from £2.6m to £2.5m. The profit is expected to rise to £3.4m in 2024 because of the operational gearing of the business. The share price improved 12.5% to 22.5p.

Tavistock Investments (LON: TAVI) chief executive Brian Raven has bought 753,000 shares at 4.27p each. That takes his stake to 12.6%. The share price recovered 10.5% to 5.25p.

Oil and gas producer Trinity Exploration & Production (LON: TRIN) says the Trinidad and Tobago Finance Act 2023, which reforms Supplemental Petroleum Tax, will positively affect cash flow and help to fund further investment. The share price rose 9.76% to 45p.

Cybersecurity services provider Shearwater Group (LON: SWG) has gained a three-year contract with a global bank valued at $3.15m. This includes spending that was previously deferred. It has also won a second government contract worth £840,000 over three years. Both contracts will contribute to the 2023-24 figures. The share price is 10.3% ahead at 50.75p.

FALLERS

Landore Resources Ltd (LON: LND) has raised £600,000 at 2.4p/share. This will help to fund the early development of the BAM gold project in Northwestern Ontario. Results from last year’s infill core sampling work will be reported during the first quarter of 2024. There will be a drilling programme this year. The postponement of the TSX Venture Exchange listing and he related fundraising has led to cost savings including the stepping down of chief executive Claude Lemasson and non-exec Larry Strauss. Glenn Featherby becomes interim chief executive. The share price fell 12.9% to 2.7p.

Full year revenues of fintech company TruFin (LON: TRU) were lower than expected due to a project delay, although the loss was in line with expectations. The loss is around £7.6m, including a £1.3m loss on sale of Vertus Capital, and this should reduce in 2024, but TruFin is set to move into net debt. The share price was 3% lower at 48.5p.

Antibiotics developer Destiny Pharma (LON: DEST) confirmed that it is funded until the beginning of 2025. Partnering activity continues and there are discussions with multiple parties. The share price declined 2.9% to 67p.

Ex-dividends

Cohort (LON: CHRT) is paying an interim dividend of 4.7p/share and the share price fell 6p to 554p.

Iomart (LON: IOM) is paying an interim dividend of 1.94p/share and the share price rose 0.3p to 153.7p.

James Latham (LON: LTHM) is paying an interim dividend of 7.75p/share and the share price is 20p lower at 1175p.

Smart Metering Systems (LON: SMS) is paying a dividend of 8.32p/share and the share price slipped 1p to 946p.

JD Sports shares plummet on profit warning disappointment

JD Sports plunged on Thursday after the sports and pleasure retailer said it would miss its profit guidance as promotional activity hit margins.

JD Sports shares were down 22% at the time of writing on Thursday.

“When one of the biggest names in retail issues a profit warning, you know life is hard for the sector,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Alongside Next, JD Sports is one of the first FTSE 350 retailers to report festive trading updates. JD Sports has previously defied economic concerns making today’s announcement even more concerning for investors.

The company had been targeting record pre-tax for the full of over £1 billion.

“News from JD Sports that full-year pre-tax profit will be up to 12% below the £1.04 billion guidance given last September has disappointed the market. Sales growth has been softer than expected and margins have been squeezed by high levels of promotional activity,” said Russ Mould.

“For JD, issuing a profit warning is a terrible start to the new year. It will put pressure on management to up their game and find innovative ways to shift more stock without sacrificing too much margin. Any interest rate cuts from the Bank of England will be a gift to the consumer and therefore to companies like JD, but there is no guarantee that will happen any time soon.”

JD Sport has traditionally been a retailing powerhouse and the strength of its brand and the resilience of its customer base will prevent any major sales drop-off.

A possible buying opportunity for JD Sports shares.

Canadian Overseas Petroleum death spiral continues after equity issue

Canadian Overseas Petroleum’s death spiral continued on Thursday after the stricken oil and gas explorer issued shares to satisfy the conversion of bond payments.

COPL shares fell 8% on the news and are down 99% over the past year.

Canadian Overseas Petroleum issued 305,598,679 common shares. This issuance is a result of the share settlement option being exercised by a Bondholder for the settlement of $1.1 million in Conversion Payment amounts, along with related accrued interest, as per the terms of previously converted 2027 Bonds and 2028 Bonds.

The issue represents around 22% of the shares outstanding following the issuance.

Today’s news follows the cataclysmic deterioration of COPL’s finances. Investors had been hoping for a joint venture agreement to develop US assets, but COPL’s dire situation hit home after discussions were terminated.

The company recently announced its US affiliate has defaulted on its obligations and entered a Forbearance Agreement with senior creditors. COPL agreed to highly dilutive terms and ravaged shareholder value.

The CEO resigned shortly after Christmas.

The company has backed itself into a corner, and shareholders will likely be left with very little.

AIM movers: C4X Discovery milestone payment and Katoro Gold has problems with joint venture partner

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An $11m preclinical milestone payment to C4X Discovery (LON: C4XD) has been triggered by the preclinical progress of C4XD’s NRF2 Activator programme. AstraZeneca is using the programme to develop an oral therapy for treating inflammatory and respiratory diseases. At the end of July 2023, C4XD had £4.22m in the bank after a £6m cash outflow from operating activities. The share price jumped 37% to 11.975p.

Natural resources data company Getech (LON: GTC) has won eight new contracts worth £1.8m and £600,000 will be recognised in 2023. Annual recurring revenues are £2.8m and the order book is worth £4.6m. Getech hopes to be cash flow positive in 2024. The share price recovered 28.6% to 6.75p.

Identity management software provider Intercede Group (LON: IGP) has secured a $1m perpetual licence from a US intelligence community client, plus an additional subscription of $200,000/year. The 2023-24 pre-tax profit forecast has been raised from £5m to £5.3m, although it is expected to fall to £3m next year. The share price improved 16.7% to 109p, which is the highest the share price has been since the summer of 2021.

Audioboom (LON: BOOM) says that there were 1.5 billion downloads of podcasts from its platform in 2023. The share price increased 10.5% to 3.15p, which is the highest it has been since May.

Bart Properties has taken a 9.5% in Capital Metals (LON: CMET). In December, the Sri Lanka mineral sands project developer raised £626,520 at 4.5p/share. The share price rose 5.26% to 4p.

FALLERS

Plexus Holdings (LON: POS) shares continue to decline and fell a further 23% to 13.25p. Yesterday, it agreed an IP licence agreement with SLB, which replaces a previous surface production wellhead licence agreement with a subsidiary of SLB. For $5.2m in cash, SLB gets a licence in perpetuity to use POS-GRIP technology in specific markets. The 2023-24 revenues forecast has been upgraded to £14m and pre-tax profit raised by 467% to £1.7m. However, this is a one-off, so Plexus could fall back into loss next year. Plexus was the best AIM performer in 2023 and it is still the best performer since the end of 2022.

Katoro Gold (LON: KAT) says that its joint venture partner in the Imweru gold project in Tanzania has not provided proof of paying the agreed capital contribution. This makes the future of the joint venture uncertain. The joint venture partner Lake Victoria Gold was earning an 80% interest in the the joint venture and be responsible for 100% of funding. The joint venture was supposed to reimburse €792,000 of cash previously spent by Katoro Gold. The share price slumped 10.3% to 0.13p.

Mkango Resources (LON: MKA) has a 79.4% interest in Maginito, which has formed a 50/50 joint venture with CoTec Holdings. HyProMag USA will roll out Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap recycling technology. Maiden revenues are expected in 2025-26. The share price declined 4.88% to 9.75p.

FTSE 100 marks 40th birthday with declines

The FTSE 100 turned 40 on Wednesday and marked its birthday with declines driven by weakness in cyclical names after US technology shares performed poorly overnight.

“The FTSE 100 marked its 40th birthday with a celebration more akin to a quiet pint in an empty pub than anything more befitting of a major landmark,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“The index was flat after mixed trading in the US overnight, where tech stocks came under pressure. The so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ accounted for a big chunk of the gains achieved by global stocks in 2023 and much will rest on their performance again in 2024.”

The selling of US tech stocks spilt over into London’s cyclical sectors, including miners, housebuilders, and consumer discretionary.

Anglo American was the top faller, shedding over 5%, closely followed by Fresnillo and Glencore.

After upbeat data on consumer spending over the festive period, supermarkets were among the top risers. The sector will report key festive trading updates in the coming weeks. Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Marks and Spencer all rose more than 1%.

Birthday bumps

Today’s declines in the FTSE 100 served as a reminder of the challenges London’s leading index has faced in recent years.

Indeed, these obstacles and London’s poor performance are laid bare by the surging value of overseas stock markets, including the US. The comparison of performance over 5, 10, and 20 year periods are eye-wateringly bad for the FTSE 100.

“As the FTSE 100 celebrates its 40th birthday, the UK stock market finds itself in a quagmire of existential angst. The headline index has made almost no progress since the start of the century, and in the last decade the Footsie has been totally eclipsed by the US stock market, which is winning company listings and financial flows,” said Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell.

“Since 2016, domestic investors have been relentlessly selling UK equity funds in favour of more global offerings, no doubt driven in part by better performance from overseas equities.”

London’s stock market now trades at a historically low valuation, and individual constituents are attracting the interest of overseas acquirers. We recently discussed a selection of potential takeover targets and the value in UK companies compared to international peers.

The coming year will be crucial for the future of UK stock markets. If domestic investors don’t step in and buy UK equities at current lowly valuations, there is the risk takeovers and the decisions by companies to relocate their primary listings will leave London a shell of its former self.

Tesla shares dip after being overtaken by BYD as world’s largest EV maker

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Elon Musk’s Tesla shares dipped as it was dethroned by the Chinese automaker BYD in electric vehicle (EV) sales in the fourth quarter of 2023.

While Tesla remains the global EV leader on an annual basis, BYD is emerging as a strong competitor in the race to become the world’s largest seller of electric vehicles.

Beyond surpassing Tesla in all-electric sales, BYD achieved sales of over 400,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the fourth quarter, contributing to a total of more than three million passenger vehicles sold last year.

Now, “the next twelve months look like they could be challenging for the company that had been streets ahead in the EV race up until now,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.

Tesla’s shares were down by almost 1% in the US premarket, while BYD’s were up by almost 0.50% at the time of writing on Wednesday.

BYD’s achievement comes on the back of six consecutive months of setting new records in monthly sales.

The positive results and the rise in the brand’s global market share have propelled BYD to become the world’s top seller of plug-in cars and the fifth best-selling car brand globally.

The Shenzhen-based automaker operates in 59 countries, including major markets such as China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Korea.

However, it does not currently sell in the US due to the high import tariffs.

Furthermore, in September 2023, the European Commission initiated a probe to consider the imposition of punitive tariffs with the aim of safeguarding European Union producers from the influx of inexpensive Chinese EV imports. 

“While price is something that is being probed by EU regulators and could create a bit of a speed bump down the road, momentum is currently on BYD’s side. Though Tesla managed to hang onto the EV crown in 2023, it’s coming under increasing pressure from legacy carmakers and Chinese models alike,” Hewson added.

10 investing lessons from the late investment legend Charlie Munger

Investing is a complex and ever-evolving field that demands a blend of astute decision-making, comprehensive analysis, and a deep understanding of human behaviour.

The late Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and renowned investing guru, left behind a legacy of wisdom that transcends the mere financial aspects of the market. In this article, we will explore 10 investing phrases coined by Charlie Munger and the valuable lessons they impart to investors.

  1. “Invert, always invert”:

Munger’s emphasis on inversion encourages investors to think backwards. Instead of focusing solely on positive outcomes, consider potential pitfalls. By adopting this approach, investors can make more well-informed decisions and better navigate the complexities of the market.

Lesson: Sound decision-making involves a comprehensive evaluation of both positive and negative aspects, offering a more holistic perspective.

  1. “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid”:

Munger debunked the myth of easy money in investing. He stressed the importance of hard work, continual learning, and rational decision-making in the face of the market’s inherent complexities.

Lesson: Success in investing demands diligence, continuous learning, and a commitment to making well-informed decisions rather than seeking shortcuts.

  1. “Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance”:

Munger advocates for steering clear of common pitfalls and mistakes in investing. By sidestepping foolish decisions, investors can often achieve better results than by constantly chasing after brilliant strategies.

Lesson: Minimising errors and avoiding common pitfalls can lead to more consistent and successful investment outcomes.

  1. “Circle of competence”:

Munger encourages investors to operate within their circle of competence, investing only in businesses and industries they thoroughly understand. Straying beyond this circle increases the likelihood of making uninformed decisions.

Lesson: Identify your strengths and invest in companies that fall within your circle of competence to enhance the chances of making sound investment choices.

  1. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up”:

Munger believed in the importance of continuous learning. He urged investors to strive for incremental improvement each day, accumulating knowledge and wisdom over time.

Lesson: Consistent self-improvement and learning are vital for long-term success in investing. Stay curious and seek opportunities for growth.

  1. “The best way to get what you want is to deserve what you want”:

Munger stressed the significance of merit and hard work. Instead of fixating solely on desires, investors should focus on developing the skills and knowledge necessary to achieve their goals.

Lesson: Success in investing comes from deserving success through disciplined research, thoughtful decision-making, and a commitment to personal growth.

  1. “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait”:

Patience is a virtue in investing, according to Munger. Successful investors understand the power of waiting for the right opportunities and avoiding impulsive decisions driven by short-term market fluctuations.

Lesson: Develop the patience to wait for high-quality investment opportunities, and resist the urge to make hasty decisions based on short-term market movements.

  1. “A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price”:

Munger emphasized the importance of investing in high-quality businesses, even if they come at a higher price. The long-term potential and stability of a great business often outweigh the immediate gains from a cheaper, less promising investment.

Lesson: Prioritise the quality of businesses in your portfolio over their current valuation. A great business can generate sustainable returns over time.

  1. “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent”:

Munger stressed the value of avoiding mistakes rather than focusing solely on being exceptionally intelligent. By minimising errors, investors can create a significant long-term advantage.

Lesson: Consistent, rational decision-making and avoiding common pitfalls can lead to better investment results than attempting to be overly clever.

  1. “The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting”:

Munger underscores the importance of patience and a long-term perspective. Successful investing often involves holding onto quality investments through market ups and downs rather than constantly buying and selling.

Lesson: The real profits come from holding onto solid investments over an extended period. Resist the temptation to engage in frequent trading and focus on the long-term potential of your portfolio.

ANGLE shares continue march higher after signing cancer trial agreement

ANGLE, the London-listed liquid biopsy company specialising in innovative circulating tumor cell (CTC) diagnostic solutions, continued to surge higher on Wednesday after inking a significant deal with global pharmaceutical giant Eisai Inc yesterday.

ANGLE shares were 12% higher at the time of writing on Wednesday.

In a groundbreaking pilot study valued at $250,000, ANGLE is set to provide CTC analysis using its cutting-edge Portrait HER2 assay. The focus of this study is to evaluate the HER2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2) status of breast cancer patients participating in a Phase II trial of the HER2 targeting antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) BB-1701.

The success of this pilot study holds the potential for numerous large-scale follow-up investigations, marking a potentially pivotal moment in cancer research and drug development.

ANGLE’s Portrait HER2 assay stands out for its ability to quantitatively assess both HER2 protein expression (via IF) and HER2/neu gene amplification (via FISH).

This dual-pronged approach is crucial in identifying breast cancer patients who could benefit from anti-HER2 ADC treatment. Notably, HER2-low breast cancer, comprising 55% of all breast cancer cases, represents a significant portion of the market.

Analysts predict that the global HER2+ breast cancer ADC market is poised to reach a staggering US $3.3 billion per annum by 2030. With the market expanding into HER2-low patients, ANGLE’s strategic move to develop a quantitative HER2 assay becomes even more pivotal. This assay allows for the precise stratification of patient populations throughout the treatment pathway, considering that HER2 status can dynamically change over time.

Oil rally continues as an Iranian warship enters the Red Sea

Oil prices jumped again by more than 2% on Tuesday after an Iranian warship entering the Red Sea after U.S. helicopters sank three Houthi boats on Sunday.

Iran first announced the deployment of the Alborz destroyer through the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait on Monday, as reported by the Iranian state media.

The details of the warship’s mission were not disclosed, but the statement mentioned that such maritime operations are normal and are carried out from time to time in the Red Sea in order to secure shipping routes.

However, the move comes after the U.S. Navy destroyed three out of four Houthi rebel boats on Sunday, killing ten organisation members as a result.

The Navy was responding to a distress call from the Singapore-flagged container vessel Maersk Hangzhou, which was being shot at by Houthi rebels, as stated by the U.S. Central Command.

A Houthi spokesperson then commented on Sunday on the rebel-owned news channel that the Houthi’s open fire on the Maersk Hangzhou vessel was in line with the group’s “official duties to secure maritime routes.”

In light of the Sunday attack, the Danish shipping company Maersk stated that it will announce later on Tuesday whether or not it will redirect its shipping route to around Africa.

As the tension continued to heighten on the news of an Iranian warship now patrolling the Red Sea, Brent Crude was up by 2.40%, while WTI Crude was up by 2.44% at the time of writing on Tuesday.

Since the first Houthi Red Sea-based attack back in December, more and more major oil companies have been diverting their shipping routes from the Red Sea to a safer passage around Africa.

Ship tracking data, released at the end of December, shows that at least four Europe-bound ships took a longer route around Africa in order to avoid crossing the Red Sea.

The route to Europe from India or the Middle East around Africa is not only approximately three weeks longer but is also much more expensive, with ocean freight rates surging to as much as $10,000 (£7,844) per container.

Therefore, a significant number of vessels continue to favour the Red Sea, with some taking an even riskier and shorter route through the Suez Canal.

Oil volatility

Despite the current rally, which was highlighted by benchmark crude Brent jumping up by more than 2.50% at the time of writing on Tuesday, oil has had a difficult December.

In the middle of the last month, the front-month WTI briefly fell below $68, hitting its lowest point since June 2023.

“It found support there and went on to break above $76 per barrel two weeks later. Prices have stabilised since, and where we go from here over the next week or so is likely to be significant in setting the path for oil in the first quarter of 2024,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

However, in the final trading sessions before Christmas, oil prices experienced a significant retreat, causing many traders to speculate that the likelihood of a more substantial rally had diminished.

“If the current rally fades quickly, then a retest of support down to $67.50 is possible. If prices gain some upside momentum, then a rally could have legs given how far crude oil has fallen since the end of September,” said Morrison.

“Fundamentally, while supply continues to outstrip demand, the escalating hostilities in the Red Sea are raising concerns and providing support,” he added.

Looking into the future, a survey conducted by Reuters among economists and analysts forecasts that in 2024, the average for Brent crude will be around $82.56 per barrel.

This projection is slightly above the 2023 average of $82.17.