AIM movers: Positive trial news for Allergy Therapeutics and Horizonte Minerals running out of cash

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Phase III trials of the Allergy Therapeutics (LON: AGY) treatment for grass allergy have met the primary endpoint. There was a highly statistically significant reduction in the combined symptom and medication score compared to placebo. The trial was conducted in the US and Europe. Full analysis of data is continuing. The share price increased 20.8% to 1.8p.

DP Poland (LON: DPP) bounced back 12.5% to 9p after a positive trading update. Third quarter like-for-like sales in Poland were 14.1% higher and they were 34.8% ahead in October. The Croatian business is growing even faster. Singer believes the pizza retailer could move into profit in 2024.

Steel structures supplier Billington (LON: BILN) is continuing its strong momentum and Cavendish has raised its 2023 earnings forecast by one-third to 83.9p/share. Manufacturing efficiencies are combining with higher revenues. Net cash of £16m is expected for the end of the year. The total dividend is still expected to be 20p/share. The 2024 forecast has not been changed. There is a good pipeline, but there is still economic uncertainty. The share price moved ahead by 10.4% to 350p.

Aeorema Communications (LON: AEO) is increasing its dividend by 50% to 3p/share after it announced a one-quarter improvement in pretax profit to £1m on revenues of £20.2m. The strategic communications company has £1.9m in cash. The share price improved 10% to 77p.

Lithium project developer Kodal Minerals (LON: KOD) has updated its mineral resource estimate for the Bougouni spodumene project in Mali. The total resource is 32 million tonnes, up from 21 million tonnes. There is scope for a much greater increase in resource. First production could be at the end of 2024. The share price rose 4.55% to 0.69p.

FALLERS

Nickel project developer Horizonte Minerals (LON: HZM) is reducing construction activities at the Araguaia nickel project while it continues financing discussions. The project has enough working capital until mid-December, although this could be extended into the first quarter of next year. This is when the due diligence of the finance providers should be completed. The share price slumped 44.3% to 10.375p, which is a new low.

Kidney disease diagnostics developer Renalytix (LON: RENX) reported halved third quarter revenues halved to $459,000. Testing volumes were maintained, but there were more that were not billable. A distribution agreement has been secured for the Middle East. Operating costs reduced and there is more cost cutting to come. The net loss fell from $12m to $10.2m. There was $13.9m in the bank at the end of September 2023 and there are discussions on financing until 2026. The share price slipped 30.7% to 26p.

Inspirit Energy Holdings (LON: INSP) has raised £200,000 at 0.01p/share. The share price is down 23.3% to 0.0115p. Nearly one-quarter of the shares are being taken up by directors. The developer of micro combined heat and power boilers requires the cash for working capital.

Trading recommenced in Rockfire Resources (LON: ROCK) shares yesterday afternoon after it said it was not going ahead with the acquisition of Emirates Gold because of UK sanctions on the current owner Paloma Precious. Rockfire Resources still has a 10% stake in Emirates Gold. The share price continues to fall and is 23.3% lower at 0.23p.

Wage growth in the UK eases but remains close to a record level, pound gains against dollar

According to official data, wages in Britain increased at a slightly slower rate in the three months leading up to September, following a previous record pace.

Job vacancies fell, signalling a minor step down in the UK jobs market.

In the third quarter, earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7% higher compared to the same period a year earlier, as shown by the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday.

This number reflects a slight decrease in regular pay growth, down from 7.9% in the last two reports by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The previous rates were the highest recorded since the start of this data series in 2001.

This information is likely to make the Bank of England vigilant about potential inflation pressures.

Following the release of the ONS figures, the pound slightly strengthened against the U.S. dollar.

The Bank of England (BoE) is closely monitoring pay growth to evaluate the remaining inflation pressure in the UK economy, having increased interest rates 14 times consecutively from December 2021 to August this year. Since then, it has maintained rates at the same level.

When considering bonuses, which can be erratic, pay growth decreased from 8.2% in the three months to August to 7.9%.

The BoE has mentioned that pay growth is declining too slowly for it to contemplate reducing interest rates, although informal estimates of wage increases indicate a less steep rise than the official numbers from the ONS.

According to Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, “When adjusted for inflation, it means people are finally feeling the benefit in their pay packets, and with inflation expected to have cooled significantly last month, it is an indication that the worst of the cost-of-living squeeze might be over. But there lies the rub. If households are feeling more confident and have a bit more room in the budget, they are likely to spend that cash, which could prove inflationary.”

Danni Hewson also added that “there’s also the continued tightness in the labour market that could force employers’ hands and push them to keep offering bigger pay packets to attract the staff they need to thrive.”

Vodafone shares drop as the company reports a significant fall in half-year profits

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Vodafone shares dropped on Tuesday after the telecoms group reported a half-year revenue decline of 4.3% to €21.9 billion as several disposals and adverse currency swings hit sales.

Vodafone shares had slipped by 2.4% at the time of writing after rising 1.3% in early trading.

The group’s shares have declined 27% over the past year.

According to Aarin Chierkie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, “revenue and operating profits are heading in the wrong direction for Vodafone, reflecting recent disposals and the structural challenges at hand.”

He states that a lot of Vodafone’s financial resources have been invested in expanding fibre networks and acquiring portions of the 5G spectrum, which is putting pressure on cash flows.

Germany – accounting for 31% of Vodadfone’s service revenue – was a bright spot, reporting quarterly revenue growth of 4.2%, although service revenue for the half year fell.

While Vodafone’s Chief Executive, Margherita Della Valle, stated that the company delivered improved quarterly results in nearly all of its markets, there was weakness in Italy and Spain.

Sales in Spain and Italy continue to fall behind, following Vodafone’s announcement last month of the sale of their Spanish business, Zegona.

Operating profit for the half-year period fell 44.2%.

The company maintained its dividend for the period at 4.5c. Vodafone’s current dividend yield stands at 10%.

However, Chierkie warned this yield may be under threat if the current mediocre performance continues.

“Typically, when companies in this industry have dividend yields above 7%, there is downward pressure on the dividend. Historically, exceptions to the rule have been few and far between, and Vodafone is unlikely to be one of them,” pointed out Aarin Chierkie.

Vodafone’s net debt stands at €36.2 billion, showing a rise of €2.9 billion compared to the first half.

Kodal Minerals’ mineral resource upgrade met with a tepid market reaction

Kodal Minerals shares made minor gains on Tuesday after the company announced a significant increase in the mineral resource at their flagship lithium project.

Kodal Minerals has announced a 40% increase in the mineral resource at its Bougouni lithium project in Mali, Africa. Kodal reported a new resource estimate of 31.9 million tonnes at 1.06% lithium oxide for Bougouni, making the project one of the largest in the world.

Investors may be disappointed with the subdued market reaction, given the revised size of the resources.

The upgrade comes after recent drilling programs expanded resources at the project’s Ngoualana and Boumou deposits, which Kodal aims to develop in two stages.

The company plans first production from Ngoualana through a dense media separation plant, with a later expansion to process ore from Boumou and Sogola-Baoule using a flotation method.

Kodal said the increased resource at Ngoualana has improved confidence in the deposit ahead of initial mine development, with optimisation and design work now underway.

More drilling is imminent to expand resources further and advance additional targets at Bougouni.

Kodal Minerals shares were up only 7% at the time of writing on Tuesday despite a substantial increase in the resource, which will feed through to better project economics.

Kodal recently announced the completion of the funding package with their Chinese partners to develop the project.

Horizonte Minerals shares crash on funding uncertainty

Horizonte Minerals shares sank on Tuesday after the nickel miner said it was reducing mine construction activities as funding uncertainty mounts.

Horizonte Minerals’ funding calculations for the Araguaia nickel project in Brazil have forced the company to scale back construction while it seeks new funding sources.

The London-based developer said Tuesday it is running out of working capital and will have to halt most construction activities at Araguaia by mid-December unless it can secure additional financing.

Horizonte has slowed work to critical areas only as it holds talks with cornerstone shareholders and lenders on a new financing plan to cover remaining construction costs. The company needs the fresh capital injection to meet the conditions for an existing $131 million debt facility.

The company has $38m cash to see them through to mid-December.

Shareholders and lenders visited Araguaia last week to conduct due diligence for the potential investment. But Horizonte does not expect funding deals to be finalised until late in the first quarter 2024, pointing to significant delays in the commencement of production at the project.

The financing crunch has cast uncertainty over the development timeline and commercial viability of Araguaia, Horizonte’s flagship nickel project.

“Discussions with the Company’s major shareholders and lenders on funding the Project to completion are progressing.  While work on the funding solution continues, we have elected to focus capital and human resources on the critical work packages,” said Horizonte Minerals CEO Jeremy Martin.

“This work is planned is to ensure that we are well-positioned to resume full construction activities post receipt of the funding to benefit stakeholders and our community alike. Notwithstanding the expected increase in capital, the Araguaia project remains a Tier 1 nickel project that will produce a high grade, low cost, low impurity FeNi product over a 28-year mine life.”

Horizonte Minerals shares were down 38% at the time of writing on Tuesday.

Heliac’s RockStore technology is revolutionising power storage using simple and low-cost systems

Heliac is a fast-growing renewable energy company providing patented solar thermal technology and innovative heat storage solutions for emission-free energy.

Led by technical founders, the company has built solar fields and storage facilities for energy majors E.ON and Norfors and is targeting the rollout of their technology across Europe.

Realising the global need for affordable energy storage, Heliac expanded from solar power generation into heat storage, developing the RockStore system.

The company has raised €13.5m to date and is currently raising funds on Seedrs to fund further growth.

Heliac’s RockStore thermal storage technology uses rocks such as granite to store surplus heat from sustainable energy sources for later use – either for heat applications or electricity.

Speaking on a recent podcast with UK Investor Magazine, Michael Lindegaard, CFO at Heliac, said the cost efficiencies associated with their storage technology make their solution an attractive alternative to lithium batteries or pumped hydro.

The RockStore uses mineral oil instead of water for heat transfer, allowing compact and cost-effective components. Solar or renewable electricity heats the oil, which is stored in insulated tanks with granite. When heat is needed, cold oil is heated to generate electricity.

Heliac CEO Henrik Pranov is delighted with the technology, proven capable of storing heat for months. He emphasises RockStore’s potential to support the energy transition.

A key focus is balancing engineering and costs. Although higher efficiency is possible, Heliac prioritises feasibility. The expected cost is around 200 Danish kroner per kWh – highly competitive compared to alternatives.

“We are constantly trying to strike a good balance between engineering efficiency and cost-effectiveness. We know that we could achieve a much higher electrical-to-electrical efficiency than we’re aiming for, but it would increase the price,” says founder and CEO Henrik Pranov.

“In the end, the electrical-to-electrical efficiency doesn’t matter as much to us because we primarily use it for heat projects with the added benefit of supporting the electrical grid.”

The unique oil heat transfer allows thinner, cheaper tanks, further demonstrating the cost efficiencies of the technology.

Heliac’s vision is larger commercial-scale storage by 2025. With continued streamlining and regulatory support, their innovative RockStore technology shows promise for affordable renewable energy storage.

Capital appreciation and uncorrelated diversification with Foresight Sustainable Forestry

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome Richard Kelly, Co-Founder and Co-Lead of the Foresight Sustainable Forestry Investment Trust, for a comprehensive discussion about the trust and current environment.

Watch Foresight Sustainable Forestry Presentation

We start by exploring the global timber market and the dynamics underpinning long-term trends. The conversation moves onto the UK timber market and the opportunity for investors in the structural supply deficit of UK-produced timber.

Richard details the trust’s assets, focusing on the stage in the life cycle and geographical distribution.

Discussing the trust’s characteristics, Richard explains that forestry is a unique asset class that provides a substantial level of diversification due to very low levels of correlations with equities, fixed income, or infrastructure.

Richard delves into the carbon credit and details how the trust is well placed to benefit global companies’ net zero pledges.

FSF is the first and only company to receive the London Stock Exchange’s Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) designation due to its funding of carbon mitigation that generates carbon credits.

Foresight Group LLP, a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 198020) acts as the Alternative Investment Fund Manager to Foresight Sustainability Forestry.

AIM movers: Saietta India contract

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Saietta Group (LON: SED) says that its 49.5% owned Indian joint venture has secured an order for complete eDrives from its main client for a second of its light commercial vehicles. The initial order is worth £106,000 over three months and the first full year of production could generate £12.7m. This is the first significant order for the new radial flux technology. The share price is 15.2% ahead at 22.75p.

Shantonu Kumar Chundur has taken a 5.06% stake in Global Petroleum (LON: GBP). The share price rose by one-fifth to 0.105p.

RUA Life Sciences (LON: RUA) revealed at the end of last week that Mark Bradshaw has a 3.61% shareholding. The share price recovered 22.2% to 16.5p.

Mobile services provider Mobile Tornado (LON: MBT) says that InTechnology, where non-exec director Peter Wilkinson is the controlling shareholder, has transferred its 58.4% stake to Holf Investments, which is wholly owned by Peter Wilkinson. The transfer price was 2.43p/share. Holf Investments has also taken on £11.2m of preference shares and debt in Mobile Tornado, which still owes InTechnology £190,000 in debt and accrued interest.  The share price improved 18.4% to 1.125p.

Brave Bison (LON: BBSN) has won new contracts and secured renewals worth a total of £4m. Media practice Brave Bison Performance secured a renewal with an electricals retailer worth £2m over two years and a new contract with a Finland-based homeware retailer worth £1m up until the end of 2024. Digital commerce practice Brave Bison Commerce has gained a £1m contract with a Netherlands-based car parts retailer. The contracts underpin expectations for a 2023 pre-tax profit of £3.1m. This pushed up the share price 16.4% to 1.775p.

FALLERS

Uncertainty about whether AMTE Power (LON: AMTE) can raise more cash before its funds run out later this month has hit the share price, which is down 25.9% to 0.5p. Discussions concerning the £2.5m subscription by an investor continue but will not be concluded by the end of November.

88 Energy (LON: 88E) has signed a deal to earn up to 45% of petroleum licence 93, onshore Namibia. There will be a progressive increase in the stake as certain milestones are achieved. The licence is in the Owambo Basin, which has a proven petroleum system. The share price has slipped 7.14% to 0.325p.

Wentworth Resources (LON: WEN) says that it achieved record production levels of 105 mmscf/day in the first half. There was $44.6m in cash at the end of October 2023. However, revenues are lower because the way the production agreement is set up. The Tanzanian government is re-examining the historic cost pool audit for 2013-2015 and Wentworth’s maximum exposure is $14m. The bid by Etablissements Maurel & Prom is still awaiting regulatory approval because of complications over a potential first right of refusal for the acquisition of the main asset by another party. No dividend will be declared. The share price declined 6.67% to 24.5p.

Team Internet Group (LON: TIG) reported further growth in its business, but the weaker digital advertising market reduced the rate of growth for the online marketing division. It still grew 15% over nine months, while there was a strong performance by the domain names business. Group revenues were 16% ahead at $611.7m, while lower gross margin meant that EBITDA was 11% ahead at $68.8m. The share price has fallen 4.19% to 119p.

FTSE 100 jumps on interest rate optimism, Phoenix Group soars

The FTSE 100 jumped on Monday as European stocks grabbed the tailcoats of a US rally later on Friday in which the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed over 1.5% higher.

The FTSE 100 added 0.6% to trade at 7,404 shortly after midday in London.

UK equities are trading almost exclusively on improved sentiment inspired by a rally in US stocks at the end of last week, although a strong showing Phoenix Group helped matters.

Markets chose to discount concerns about the Federal Reserve hiking rates again in the near term, instead pricing risk assets for interest rates to stay on hold until they are eventually cut in the middle of next year.

Any economic news or commentary to the contrary could cause sharp swings in stocks.

“The FTSE 100 made strong progress on Monday morning, following on from gains on Wall Street on Friday,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“An easing in government bond yields supported the biggest one-day gain in the Nasdaq Composite index since May as investors remained confident in the idea of interest rates having peaked despite an attempt by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to counter this narrative last week.

“US inflation numbers out tomorrow will tell their own story and a higher-than-expected reading could well prompt renewed jitters among investors.

“Also helping the positive mood were strong updates from UK property investor British Land, which also boosted its peer Land Securities, and insurance outfit Phoenix surged higher after lifting its cash generation target.”

Phoenix Group was the FTSE 100’s top riser with a gain of 5% after the wealth and insurance group upgraded their 2023-2025 cash generation target to £4.5 billion, up from £4.1 billion previously.

“The completion of the funds merger of the Standard Life and Phoenix Life businesses into Phoenix Life Limited, bringing together 8 million policies, is one of the largest UK insurance Part VII transfers ever completed,” said Phoenix Group CEO, Andy Briggs.

“This reaffirms Phoenix Group’s position as the UK’s leader at delivering cost and capital synergies and generating value for customers and shareholders. This funds merger enables us to materially upgrade our cash generation targets and creates further balance sheet optionality for the Group.”

BAE Systems carved out minor gains after reaffirming its guidance for the full year after strong order levels throughout the year, including £10bn since the beginning of the half year. BAE Systems were 0.6% higher at the time of writing.

BAE Systems upbeat release seemingly did more for peer Rolls Royce shares, which added 2.2%.

Diageo was again among the losers as investors continued to react to last week’s disappointing trading statement.

The M&G Credit Income Investment Trust is a robust high-yield income selection

The M&G Credit Income Investment Trust’s floating rate income stream makes the trust a superior choice for the higher interest rate environment. 

The Bank of England is set to hold rates at elevated levels for the foreseeable future, supporting allocation into the M&G Credit Income Investment Trust because higher interest rates translate directly to higher dividend payouts. 

The trust targets the distribution of quarterly payouts at a rate of SONIA +4% and has a yield of 9.1% based on the past four declared dividends.

SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) is the benchmark of actual interest rates banks pay to lend to each other overnight.

SONIA has tracked the BoE base rate higher over the past two years and steadily increased M&G Credit Income’s quarterly dividend distributions.

Even though the Bank of England may be forced to cut rates early next year if the economic environment worsens, UK interest rates are not going back to anywhere near the lows of the last decade, and the trust is set to provide attractive yields in years to come.

With the support of 200+ fixed income and debt specialists at M&G, Manager Adam English overseas a £130m portfolio of debt assets from commercial mortgage loans to investment grade asset backed securities.

M&G Credit Income invests in both public and private assets of investment grade. It does not invest in higher-risk inferior debt typically associated with the high yield area of the bond market. 

The assets held within the portfolio are difficult for individual investors to access and the trust provides a great opportunity to diversify into assets with steady, reliable distributions.

Examples of assets held in the portfolio include a tranche of UK Student debt issued by the government and high quality banking bonds. The trust recently picked up an issuance by Virgin Money and has exposure to sectors ranging from restaurants to property.

The trust employs a nimble approach to asset allocation and has harnessed pricing disconnects this year to add to the portfolio.

For example, during the mini-banking crisis in March, M&G Credit Income bought up tranches of high quality banking credit as prices plunged.

That said, the trust has a low turnover and pursues a diverse range of high conviction holdings, which are held for many years.

The M&G Credit Income Investment Trust should be considered by all serious income investors.