Ørsted shares are down as it halts two US wind farm projects

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Ørsted shares had plunged 19.63% at the time of writing on Wednesday as it became known that the Danish renewable energy company was to halt two offshore wind farm developments in the U.S.

Ørsted released a statement saying that the move is to cost the company approximately 39.4 billion DKK (£4.6 billion).

The developer announced the discontinuation of its 2,248-megawatt Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects in New Jersey.

This decision is part of the company’s ongoing restructuring of its U.S. offshore wind portfolio.

“Significant adverse developments from supply chain challenges, leading to delays in the project schedule, and rising interest rates have led us to this decision,” said Ørsted Chief Executive Mads Nipper on the matter.

Ørsted stocks have been rapidly falling for two months since August and are now down by approximately 60%.

The shares were trading at 273.1 DKK in the morning trade on Wednesday.

“The development of new wind energy projects is becoming increasingly challenging. Securing investment is particularly difficult in the current rate environment. Input costs are on the rise for wages and materials like steel and copper, and our experts highlight that offshore vessel hire costs are particularly elevated. It coincides that the maximum set price per MWh is simply set too low to offset these soaring costs,”said Louis Knight, analyst at Third Bridge.

“The future of many projects remains uncertain due to the increasing construction costs, combined with the fact that power prices for projects are fixed, ignoring inflation, through the UK’s contracts-for-difference price model”, he added.

UK house prices rise by almost 1% amidst a shortage of homes

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On Wednesday, mortgage lender Nationwide data showed that, surprisingly, British house prices rose nearly 1% in October.

According to Nationwide, the rise was primarily attributed to a shortage of available homes rather than a market recovery impacted by increased borrowing costs.

The data further shows that new home prices rose by 0.9% from the previous month, marking the greatest monthly increase since August 2022.

Economists surveyed by Reuters in a poll had predicted a monthly decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year drop of 4.8% in housing prices.

However, Tom Brown, Managing Director of Real Estate at Ingenious, said that “it’s essential to note that the situation is not uniform throughout the country and across all price ranges. When analysing opportunities, it is key to understand the underlying subsectors and regional dynamics.”

“Taking too broad a view of the market can be misleading. For instance, the institutional housing sector has experienced fewer disruptions compared to the residential sector due to its long-term investment horizon, rental growth, and substantial capital inflows,”, he added.

Chinese manufacturing slows in October

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The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI, which evaluates manufacturing sector’s performance based on a survey of 430 private industrial firms, dropped to 49.5 in October 2023, down from 50.6 in September.

These numbers fall short of the forecasted 50.8.

In October, the manufacturing sector shrank for the first time since July, with decreased output reflecting the delicate economic recovery.

New orders showed minimal growth, and foreign sales declined for the fourth consecutive month due to slow global conditions and high prices.

Input costs reached a nine-month high because of pricier raw materials and oil, while selling prices increased moderately.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented on the development by saying:

“More data has come through in China, indicating that the manufacturing sector has struggled unsuccessfully to hang onto growth. The Caixin S&P PMI data showed that factory activity contracted in October amid weaker demand globally.”

AIM movers: Chaarat Gold secures mine construction agreement and delayed contracts for Eckoh

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Chaarat Gold Holdings (LON: CGH) has entered into a conditional agreement with Power Construction Corporation of China for the construction of the Tulkubash gold project in the Kyrgyz Republic. The engineering and construction contract is worth $82.8m, while five-year mining and maintenance contracts have a total value of $167.3m. The overall capital development cost will be lower than expected. Axis Capital Markets has been appointed joint broker. The share price rose 10.7% to 4.54p.

Utility infrastructure platform IQGeo (LON: IQG) says there has been strong early momentum from the launch of the Editions software product, and it has won two new customers in North America. Trading is in line with expectations and a 2023 pre-tax profit of £3.1m is forecast. The pipeline of new contracts means that there is a positive outlook. The share price has fallen sharply in recent months, and it recovered 4.37% to 215p, which is still nearly one-third below the peak.

Wishbone Gold (LON: WSBN) has confirmed the mineralised base metal system at Cottesloe in the Paterson Range, Western Australia. There is copper, zinc, silver, lead and cobalt. This is before the drilling has hit the target mineralisation zone. The share price rose 2.27% to 2.25p, having been 2.6p earlier in the morning.

Catalyst Media Group (LON: CMX) continued its share price improvement with a 5.88% rise to 135p following yesterday afternoon’s announcement that it had received a distribution of £6.16m from Sports Information Services. This enables a dividend of 27p/share to be paid, while retaining £600,000 in cash.

FALLERS

Gensource Potash (LON: GSP) raised $730,000 at 15 cents/unit. The unit is one share and one warrant exercisable at 30 cents. The cash will finance field work at the Tugaske potash project. The share price slipped 11.1% to 6p.   

Tertiary Minerals (LON: TYM) has raised £150,000 at 0.12p/share. The share price declined 10.7% to 0.125p. Peterhouse is being issued 6.25 million warrants exercisable at 0.12p each. The cash will be used for exploration at its projects in Zambia and Nevada.

Managed IT services Sysgroup (LON: SYS) says lower value-added product sales mean that group interim revenues fell 3% to £11m. Following deferred payments and share buy backs, net debt was £3.43m at the end of September 2023. There is also deferred consideration of £1.84m. The share price fell 9% to 40.5p.

Payment services developer Tintra (LON: TNT) reported its interims after the market closed on Tuesday. Management says that growth has been held back by issues moving funds from the Middle East, administrative distractions and extracting the company from a finance facility. There are no revenues and the loss increased from £444,000 to £1.38m. Bid talks continue for the 150p/share offer. The share price dipped 6.45% to 72.5p.

Payment security technology developer Eckoh (LON: ECK) says new contracts have been delayed into the second half. Interim revenues fell from £19.6m to £18.8m due to the loss of a Large UK contract. Margins improved, so operating profit was 17% higher at £4.1m. Net cash is expected to be £7.3m. There is a record pipeline of new business. Singer lowered its full year revenues forecast by 6% to £39.6m, which is still higher than last year. The pre-tax profit forecast is maintained at £8.3m. The share price fell 5.88% to 40p.

ASOS plummets as revenue and EBITDA sink amid turnaround efforts

ASOS investors have baulked at the news the online retail company will continue to sacrifice revenue in an attempt to bolster EBITDA through 2024.

The retailer said adjusted revenue fell 11% in the 2023 full year as the company focused on efficiencies and carving out higher EBITDA by cutting costs and improving stock management.

Adjusted EBITDA fell 59% to £124.5m in the year to 3rd September 2023.

“The past year has been another annus horribilis, but then again it was always going to be. You cannot perform major surgery on a broken business without taking considerable pain. ASOS still remains in intensive care, meaning the year ahead is also likely to be very painful,” said Charlie Huggins, manager of the Quality Shares Portfolio at Wealth Club.

ASOS shares were 9% lower at the time of writing on Wednesday.

“Profitability rather than growth remains the order of the day at ASOS. There were no major surprises in full-year results, revenue had fallen at double-digit rates as the number of active customers shrank 9% to 23.3m. With shoppers clearly struggling with the cost-of-living crisis and looking elsewhere for their latest fix of fashion, ASOS expects these double-digit revenue declines to continue into the new financial year, before turning positive again in the final quarter,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Chiekrie continued to explain the financial situation ASOS was far from ideal as debt rose cash outflows increased.

“With net debt and cash outflows rising, an £80m equity raise was needed last year to help shore up the balance sheet. This isn’t usually a good sign for existing shareholders as it waters down their stake in the company. On the flip side, the cash injection has given ASOS some wiggle room to execute its ongoing transformation, and there are some very early signs that it’s bearing fruit,” said Chiekrie.

“Despite overall profit coming in lower last year, profit per order was up over 30% as the group streamlined its offering and narrowed its focus on higher-quality, more profitable customers. And good progress has been made in trimming the mountain of excess inventory in ASOS’ warehouses, down around 30% year-on-year. The discounts used to help clear this stock have hurt margins though, and the group turned loss-making.”

Next shares gain as full-year profit guidance increased

On Wednesday, Next shareholders cheered a brief, yet upbeat, trading statement from the retail bellwether after a solid quarter of sales growth driven by online activity.

Next shares rose 2% in early trade after reporting a 4% increase in full price sales for the third quarter compared to last year, beating guidance of 2% growth.

Strong performance in the most recent quarter gave the fashion retailer the confidence to increase its profit forecast by £10 million to £885 million for the full year.

Full price sales were up across both online and retail divisions in Q3 and year-to-date. However, performance varied week-to-week due to changing weather impacting shopping patterns and Next believes sales volatility reflects weather conditions rather than underlying consumer demand.

This is certainly an optimistic assertion, given the softer UK economic conditions creeping in in recent months. That said, Next has consistently surprised to the upside this year and seems immune to wider economic concerns.

The company raised its full year guidance for full price sales growth to 3.1% and pre-tax profit to £885 million, up from previous guidance of 2.6% sales growth and £875 million profit. Next also increased its earnings per share outlook based on higher projected profit.

Three AIM companies that will benefit from Network Rail spending

The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) has approved Network Rail’s five-year capital investment plan worth £43.1bn in total. The focus is on improving train performance for freight and passengers. This involves reducing cancellations and improving punctuality.
The plan covers the five years to the end of March 2029. There will be an additional £600m of spending on track, structures and earthworks taking the figure to £10.3bn. The ORR wants Network Rail to spend more on assets that are subject to changes in weather patterns. Decarbonisation is another area important to the ORR.
There are three parti...

FTSE 100 clings on to gains, BP drags after earnings miss

The FTSE 100 was clinging on to gains at the time of writing on Tuesday as a turbulent month of October drew to a close.

London’s leading index had started the session firmly in positive territory before US futures fell, taking European stocks with them.

Investors were digesting a raft of economic data on Tuesday, including weaker US manufacturing data and slower retail sales in Germany.

The ongoing human tragedy in the Middle East also continued to weigh on sentiment.

“We’re at the end of a difficult month for equity markets, shaken by conflict in the Middle East and a mixed set of corporate results. The FTSE 100 and Dax indices are on track to end the month down 4%. In the US, the S&P is looking at a 3% decline on the month. Investors will be hoping for an end-of-year rally to help repair portfolios,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Earnings season in the US and UK has been mixed to date, with many companies missing already conservative analyst estimates.

Mould highlighted a number of big losers in October, adding; “NatWest has had a shocker of a time with its share price down more than 23% in October. Rat-catcher Rentokil has shown that its business is not as defensive as one might have thought, with its shares down 30% on the month.”

BP was the latest casualty on Tuesday as shares slipped 4% after missing analyst earnings estimates. The oil major was suffering from lower gas trading activities, and falling oil prices piled further pressure on their refining business.

“The third quarter has been something of a mixed bag for oil & gas supermajor BP. But overall the strong cash flows is still enabling it to invest in new projects, make inroads into the debt position and make generous payouts to shareholders,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Whilst the oil pricing outlook remains strong there are some headwinds blowing into the fourth quarter. The high oil price is favourable to the upstream operations but the profits it makes in its petrol station forecourts remain sensitive to the cost of supply. And in refining margins are expected to trend significantly lower. Production is expected to be flat, but with four major projects due to have been completed by the end of the year its building a solid foundation for the future and it has upped its longer-term profit guidance.

“Despite a strong run in the shares, the valuation remains well below the long-term average. The market has been disappointed by today’s results and concerns remain around the Group’s renewable ambitions, but fundamentally BP is well placed to continue building shareholder value.”

Shell will report on Thursday.

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust: two alternatives to the underperforming trust

The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) has performed badly since the pandemic leaving investors understandably frustrated. 
The trust's share price is down 12% over the past year compared to a 3% gain for the FTSE 100 and 15% increase in the NASDAQ.
This article provides two alternatives to the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust that possess the attributes that have attracted investors to Baillie Gifford's flagship trust over the years.
The first of our picks employs a similarly unconstrained approach to growth stocks, and the second is focused on global technology shares.
The natur...

Foresight Sustainable Forestry will benefit from a global supply deficit and increasing demand for carbon credits

There is a global shortage of sustainably sourced timber. Current World Bank data shows that there is a base of billion cubic metres of global timber supply deficit; the numbers are expected to triple by 2050.

Due to its inflation-beating properties, forestry has long been an attractive investment encompassing strong ESG characteristics. Forestry investment can also provide appealing tax incentives.

However, the supply/demand dynamics for timber are now increasingly underscoring the economic opportunity in forestry investments.

The forestry situation in the UK is dire. Given the high percentage of rural territories, the country is lagging behind the rest of Europe, where the average afforested areas account for 45–48% of each country’s territory. Only 13% of the UK is forested.

The UK has so much untapped sustainable forestry potential, yet we import 80% of all our timber. Indeed, importing so much timber is highly supportive of the UK’s 2050 sustainability goals.

The Foresight Sustainable Forestry Investment Trust is tackling the global long-term structural supply imbalance of timber, as well as bolstering the UK’s timber supply, through expansive afforestation projects and sustainable timber production.

Foresight Sustainable Forestry Investment Trust

Managed by the Foresight Group since its IPO, the fund has consistently delivered returns in forestry and natural capital. Utilising a proprietary pipeline of acquisition opportunities, Foresight has meticulously mapped the entire UK forest area, identifying 4,500 properties with high potential and approaching landowners as part of a direct origination campaign.

The cornerstone of Foresight Forestry’s returns lies in afforestation, which can constitute up to 50% of the fund’s investments at any given time.

Since its initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange two years ago, Foresight Forestry Fund has invested in over 1.5 million trees at six new forests, which adds up to around 289,500 tonnes of sustainable timber for sale.

Between 2023-2025, Foresight plans on planting circa 9 million trees.

All managed forests adhere to the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), which is the most renowned Sustainable Forestry Certification, and Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC) standards.

In addition to contributing to the UN’s fight against climate change and deforestation, Foresight Forestry Investment Fund actively creates meaningful impact for local communities. In Wales, it has provided local communities with a three-week skills training programme. The participants were able to go on working on Foresight’s new afforestation schemes.

Foresight delivered a weighted average return uplift of 98.4% across their first six afforestation projects.

Currently, Foresight Forestry Sustainable Investment Trust is the only forestry and natural resource fund on the London Stock Exchange.

Like every single other asset class, forestry has its downsides. One of them being that the investment takes a long time to yield, as forests can take up to 30 years to mature.

The attractiveness of forestry, however, partly lies in the fact that the supervisors have the ability to leave mature timber on the stump for a long period of time. In the meantime, the fund diligently monitors the market, calculating the optimal time for selling timber.

Voluntary Carbon Credit

In addition to timber, Foresight Sustainable Forestry is on track to produce 1 million carbon credits.

The extraordinary innate value of trees lies in the well-known fact that forests capture carbon. Companies across the globe can buy carbon credits, which are produced when trees are planted, removing carbon from the atmosphere. One metric tonne of carbon removed from the air at Foresight’s afforestation properties equals one carbon credit.

According to Richard Kelly, Managing Director at Foresight Sustainable Forestry, there is now a global rise in high-integrity corporate pledges, meaning that many organisations promise to go carbon-neutral (or mostly carbon-neutral) by 2050.

Demand for carbon credits is predicted to increase a hundredfold by 2050.