Further upside for Vertu Motors

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Vertu Motors (LON: VTU) is the only major quoted motor dealer that is not the subject of a bid. The share price has risen by more than 31% this year, yet the valuation is still lower than for the rivals that are the subject of bids.

Supply of new cars improved, and the money made on each used car increased. Retail market share has risen to 4.6%.

In the six months to August 2023, revenues were 21% ahead at £2.42bn. There was a small dip in gross margin to 11%, but operating profit was one-third higher at £41.4m.

The Helston acquisition pushed Vertu Motors net debt to £90.7m, and that meant that the interest charge was higher, so pre-tax profit grew 12% to £31.5m. The interim dividend is 21% higher at 0.85p/share.

The share price rose 0.9p to 71p. That is similar to the net tangible assets of 70.9p/share. Trading was strong in September and the full year pre-tax profit is forecast to improve from £39.3m to £48m. Some capital investment is being delayed and net debt should start falling as the extra inventory unwinds.

The shares are trading on seven times prospective earnings. Lookers (LON: LOOK) is being acquired for nine times earnings, while the multiple for Pendragon (LON: PDG) is even higher – around elven to twelve times – although it includes the Pinewood software business.

Zeus estimates a value of 108p/share for Vertu Motors. That is equivalent to eleven times prospective earnings.

FTSE 100 flat as investors weigh US bond yields, Tesco jumps

The FTSE 100 was treading water on Wednesday as investors weighed economic data and political developments in the United States.

Expectations of higher interest rates for a prolonged period have sent US treasury yields higher, and the sell-off in US bonds is starting to show signs of rippling across financial markets.

At the same time, the removal of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House of Representatives provided suggestions of disruption in Washington making US debt less attractive.

The FTSE 100 was up 1 point to 7,470 shortly after 1pm in London, while US futures looked set for a mildly higher open.

“It feels gloomy right now with a ‘higher rates for longer’ assumption helping to sour sentiment,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“This is reflected in the sell-off in bonds – with US government bond yields hitting levels last seen in 2007, not a year with particularly happy memories for investors.

“The most recent catalysts include the JOLTS job openings survey, which showed a surprisingly buoyant US labour market, and the uncertainty across the Atlantic created by a closely averted government shutdown and the shock ousting of Republican speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy.”

There was a slight tick-up in US futures after US ADP jobs data came in worse than expected.

FTSE 100 movers

FTSE 100 constituents were pretty evenly split between gainers and losers on Wednesday, with a noticeable bid in more defensive shares while cyclical shares slipped.

Miners, oil majors, retailers and housebuilders were weaker as investors bought into consumer staples and utility companies.

Tesco was the top riser after first-half sales rose 8.4% to £30.8bn, and underlying operating profit jumped 13.9% to £1.5bn.

“It seems Tesco’s performing its own supermarket sweep, knocking competition out the way in the process and loading up on market share,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“As a full-line retailer it maintains an edge over the likes of Lidl and Aldi where you can’t quite find some more obscure ingredients. The enormous investment Tesco’s put in to being more affordable has also helped retain and attract customers while inflation’s been running so hot.”

Tesco shares were 3.9% higher at the time of writing.

Birkenstock pursuing $9 billion valuation in upcoming IPO

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After enjoying booming demand for its iconic sandals and broad range of footwear, the German company has filed to list on US markets and is said to seek a $9.2 billion valuation on its initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange.

Birkenstocks announced their plans to list shares in New York in the region of $44–$49 per share, which is expected to raise around $1.6 billion for Birkenstock and their private equity owner, U.S.-based company L Catterton.

L Catterton will have around a 83% stake in the company after the IPO.

Birkenstocks said most of the proceeds will go to repaying its current debt and has no plans to pay a dividend in the near term.

Birkenstock generated €1,242.8 million in revenue in fiscal 2022, up from €727.9 million in 2020.

Birkenstock’s IPO will follow major IPOs by ARM Holdings and Instacart in recent weeks as capital markets fire up after months of next to no activity.

Joint book runners for the IPO include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley.

AIM movers: Neometals impressive lithium recovery rates and Oracle Power raising funds for green hydrogen

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Neometals (LON: NMT) says that the new lithium recovery process has led to more than 93% lithium recovery from batteries in the form of lithium fluoride. This should reduce operating costs and capital investment. The proposed offtake agreement with Jiuxing Titanium Minerals for the Barrambie titanium project in Australia was not agreed and other partners are being considered. Cavendish values Neometals at 140p/share.  The share price rose 8.57% to 19p.

Shares in Safestyle (LON: SFE) recovered 9.65% to 2.84p, although there is no news concerning the talks with interested parties about a fundraising to provide working capital. It is a tough market for the windows manufacturer, but the directors believe that they will be able to obtain the finance required.

Brandshield Systems (LON: BRSD) shares edged up by 7.95% to 2.85p as director William Currie is buying shares ahead of the proposed cancellation of the AIM quotation. He has taken his stake to 13.3%. Finance director Ravit Freedman is leaving.

Sabien Technology (LON: SNT) is rolling out its M2G cloud-enabled gas boiler energy saving technology in the US. Greffen Systems in Texas will be the first installation partner in the US. There could be additional revenues of £100,000 this year. The share price improved 6.06% to 8.75p.

Bens Creek (LON: BEN) increased coal production to 50,100 tonnes in September, up from 42,691 tonnes the previous month, and it is expected to continue to increase. The first half production more than doubled to 204,998 tonnes. The coal price has recovered, so Bens Creek will be reducing its loss. The share price is 5.45% higher at 14.5p.

FALLERS

Resources projects developer Oracle Power (LON: ORCP) is raising £350,000 at 0.035p/share with one warrant exercisable at 0.07p attached to every two shares. In order to do this, there has to be a capital reorganisation in order to reduce the nominal value of the shares to 0.001p. The cash will be spent on the company’s green hydrogen project, which will have a 400MW capacity. The share price slumped 60.5% to 0.03p.

i(X) Net Zero (LON: IX.) investee company Sustainable Living Innovations Inc, where it holds an investment valued at $770,000, will not reverse into Churchill Capital Corp V. The share price of the sustainable investment company fell 9.3% to 19.5p.

Europa Oil & Gas (LON: EOG) says that the availability of the licence of the Tain discovery in the North Sea could benefit the Serenity oil discovery, where the company holds 25%. The Europa Oil & Gas share price has dipped 7.41% to 1.25p. The operator of Serenity is i3 Energy (LON: I3E) has commenced discussions about the licence and the share price slipped 1.76% to 13.4p.  

The latest budget from the Trinidad and Tobago government should ensure than Trinity Exploration and Production (LON: TRIN) will not pay any supplemental petroleum tax in 2024. The threshold price for offshore assets has been raised by 50% to $75/barrel, while the sustainability incentive has been raised from 20% to 25% to encourage investment. There will be a review of the capital expenditure write-off regime. The share price declined 6.47% to 79.5p.

How rising US government bond yields are impacting UK assets

A sell-off in US government bonds is underway as markets position for US interest rates to stay higher for longer amid positive US economic data.

A raft of upbeat US economic data has poured cold water on hopes of a rate cut early next year and many now see interest rates remaining higher for a prolonged period.

US 10-year bond yields were 4.80% on Wednesday morning – the highest level since 2007.

As bond prices fall and yield rise, the impact on borrowing costs is hitting interest-sensitive assets, such as equities, corporate bonds and the government bonds themselves. 

For people within the UK, a potential side effect of the US government bond rout is higher yields in UK bonds and higher borrowing costs which could have wide-reaching implications including lower corporate profits, reduced investment and they could even affect housing prices.

Steadily increasing US bond yields have helped support the dollar and send GBP/USD down to 1.2124. GBP/USD had been as high as 1.319 in July.

A weaker pound can be supportive of the FTSE 100’s overseas earners but if global debt yields increase in line with US treasuries, it will increase funding costs for major corporations.

There will also be concerns around the UK housing market, although we are yet to see any major disruption. Should yields continue to rise it could impact mortgage rates and further curtail activity in UK property.

Is the Horizonte Minerals sell-off overdone?

The Horizonte Minerals share price is down 85% since last Friday’s close after the nickel miner said on Monday that it had gotten its capital expenditure figures for the 100%-owned Araguaia Nickel Project wrong and was seeking additional financing.

As a result of the miscalculation, the first production of nickel is being pushed back to Q3 2024 from Q1 2024.

The delay in production will be a major disappointment for investors. However, the biggest concern in the short term is how they will finance the rest of the mine construction.

The feasibility study for the Araguaia Nickel Project attributed a capital cost of $443 million for the first stage of the Araguaia mine, with the second stage to be financed by cashflows from first stage production.

Horizonte said on Monday they now expect capital expenditure to be at least 35% more than first thought. This would represent around $155m.

The need for additional capital will be a bitter pill to swallow for investors who were told earlier this year that Araguaia was on schedule and on budget.

The company has previously financed the mine through debt and newly issued equity, with the lion’s share raised through a senior debt facility.

The worry for investors will be that Horizonte said they are exploring financing options with ‘various financial institutions together with the cornerstone shareholders’. Cornerstone shareholders’ involvement would suggest Horizonte is considering an equity placing that could be highly dilutive for existing shareholders.

With Horizonte’s market now at just £44m, an equity placing could be problematic. The company didn’t issue any further details on financing options, which has added to the uncertainty and can be attributed to a proportion of the share price decline. One would assume they are looking at both debt and equity options.

There is of course value in the works already completed and the resources at Araguaia but how much of this value finds its way to Horizonte shareholders is now nothing more than speculation with little detail on future financing.

This is reflected in the Horizonte Minerals share price and it will require a brave investor to take the view the sell-off is overdone.

Superdry shares surge on Indian joint venture and IP sale

Superdry plc has signed an intellectual property joint venture agreement with Reliance Brands Holding UK to accelerate growth in India.

The company has also agreed to sell the intellectual property assets for the Superdry brand and related trademarks in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to the new joint venture for £40m.

Superdry shares surged 30% on the news in early trade on Wednesday.

The deal represents a value not too different to Superdry’s market cap as of the close yesterday and will have a material impact on the company’s cash position.

RBUK, which is owned by Reliance Retail Ventures Limited through its subsidiary Reliance Brands Limited (RBL), will hold a 76% stake in the joint venture. Superdry will retain a 24% share. RBL has been Superdry’s exclusive franchise partner in India since 2012.

After the deal, RBL will continue managing brand operations in the three countries.

RBL oversees a retail empire of over 18,000 stores across India. It offers 50 luxury fashion brands and has a presence in 7,000 towns and cities. The total shopping area covers more than 65 million square feet.

Since partnering with RBL in 2012, Superdry has expanded rapidly across India. With the country’s growing economy and rising middle class, the brand has significant potential. As India’s leading fashion retailer, RBUK is best placed to maximise this opportunity through majority IP ownership.

The deal involves permanently transferring all of Superdry’s brand assets in the three countries to the new joint venture entity. Superdry will invest £9.6 million in the JV using funds from the £40 million IP sale price.

Belluscura shares soar on new manufacturing funding package

Belluscura shares surged in afternoon trading on Tuesday as the portable oxygen concentrator company released a flurry of announcements related to bolstering its manufacturing capabilities.

Belluscura has recently unveiled two substantial developments in the distribution and sales of their portable oxygen concentrators which could add up to $70m in revenue for Belluscura.

This was increased to $85m today after Belluscura announced further orders for their DISCOV-R™ portable oxygen concentrators. The company said orders now sat around $30m.

Belluscura has inked a royalty agreement with Chinese partners that could be worth around $55m over ten years.

Today’s series of announcements revealed a funding package totalling in the region of £8m to be allocated to scaling up the company’s manufacturing and sales operations in light of a step change in order demand.

The £8m funding package will be beneficial for shareholders as it avoids a large discounted placing that would erode shareholder value through dilution.

The package is comprised of three elements; the acquisition of TMT Acquisitions PLC satisfied by new shares in Belluscura, a £0.6m equity placing at 32p, and the issuing of £2.7m in 10% convertible loan notes.

TMT Acquisitions has £4.7m in cash which Belluscura will receive through the acquisition of the company in return for newly issued Belluscura shares. The price paid by Belluscura represents a 24.7% premium to TMT’s most recent closing price. TMT has no trading activities and the board will step down on the completion of the deal.

Nigel Wray, an existing Belluscura shareholder, will participate in the convertible loan note issue.

Belluscura shares jumped 20% to 36p as of 2.41pm in London.

Tekcapital, a major Belluscura shareholder, saw their shares tick higher in the immediate reaction to the news.

FTSE 100 falls with global equities as US 10-year yield hits 4.75%

The FTSE 100 was feeling the pressure of higher bond yields on Tuesday as US 10-year treasury yields touched 4.75% amid concerns about the trajectory of interest rates.

The latest bout of concern was sparked by a raft of strong US economic data suggesting the world’s largest economy is taking higher rates in its stride.

“The hangover from strong economic data out in the US is still being felt, with the headache increasing about the likelihood of high interest rates setting in rattling nerves. Better than expected manufacturing indicating a more buoyant US economy is not being taken as good news, but a sign that the bitter central bank medicine will have to keep being administered to bring down inflation to target,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Those hoping interest rates had peaked may be disappointed if this trend continues and inflation remains elevated. The ongoing concerns about interest rates are weighing on markets that are starting to show signs of monetary policy fatigue.

“Stubbornly high US government bond yields are making life harder for equities to press ahead. The US Treasury yield exceeded 4.7% overnight as investors took the view that the US economy is in a decent and resilient shape,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“While a robust economy would be positive, it theoretically lowers the chances of the Federal Reserve making interest rate cuts in the near-term or at least fewer cuts than previously expected.”

The FTSE 100 was down 0.3% to 7,488 at the time of writing.

“A risk-off sentiment is growing, and the FTSE 100 is finding it hard to regain its mojo,” Streeter concluded.

In terms of FTSE 100 movers, consumer-facing and highly cyclical sectors received the brunt of the selling on Tuesday. Miners were weaker and were Burberry and JD Sports.

Ocado’s free fall continued as hopes of a bid from Amazon becomes a distant memory. Ocado shares were down 4.5% and were the biggest loser on Tuesday.

There was a distinct risk-off rotation in FTSE 100 stocks with defensive names including GSK, Unilever and Pearson in favour.

AIM movers: Tintra returns from suspension and Safestyle slumps on fundraising concerns

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Trading has resumed in the shares of Tintra (LON: TNT) following publication of the accounts to January 2023. The financial technology business made a higher loss last year. The shares had been suspended since the end of July and since then it has received a bid approach at 150p/share. The share price jumped 63% to 110p.

Oxford BioDynamics (LON: OBD) has received a reimbursement code for its EpiSwitch 3D genomics platform. This covers Medicare, Medicaid and other payers in the US. This will come into effect on 1 January. The share price continued its upward momentum rising 47.2% to 50.5p – the highest level for nearly two years.

Autonomous vehicle developer Aurrigo International (LON: AURR) has signed a deal with International Airlines Group to deploy its vehicles at a major UK airport. A small number of vehicles should be deployed in early 2025. The share price increased 13.6% to 167.5p.

MBD Partners has become a strategic investor in Ascent Resources (LON: AST) and bought its stake at a premium to the market price. MBD is owned by natural resources investor Ibrahim Diab and £1.5m has been injected into the oil and gas company at 3.5p/share. The MBD stake will be 20.5%. The share price improved 15.1% to 3.05p.

FALLERS

Safestyle (LON: SFE) is still talking with interested parties about a fundraising to provide working capital. It is a tough market for the windows manufacturer, but the directors believe that they will be able to obtain the finance required. It is uncertain what the terms will be and how dilutive it could be for shareholders. The share price slumped a further 58% to 1.85p and it has fallen 93% this year.   

Horizonte Minerals (LON: HZM) shares continue to fall after yesterday’s announcement that it is changing the design of the Araguia nickel project in Brazil, which will increase capital investment and delay production until the third quarter of 2024. Management is in talks about additional financing. The share price fell a further 36% to 32p.

Secure payments technology developer PCI-Pal (LON: PCIP) is seeking maximum recovery of costs from the company that filed the UK patent dispute that was resolved in PCI-Pal’s favour last week. In the first quarter of the new financial year, 57 new contracts have been signed. However, Cavendish has reduced its expectations for growth in 2023-24 revenues from 34% to 28% following the latest guidance from the company. PCI-Pal is still expected to move into profit this year, but it is a more modest £100,000. The share price declined 13.6% to 47.5p and it is back around the level prior to the announcement of the UK patent litigation result last week.

Online retailer boohoo (LON: BOO) shares have fallen 10.3% to 28.315p – the lowest level for around eight years – after it fell into loss in the first half. They are down 10.3% to 28.33p. Interim revenues fell 17% to £729.1m, with lower sales in all the international regions. The fastest rate of decline was outside the core brands, but they still fell by 10%. Net debt is £35m.